The baseball season has just passed its one third mark and I wanted to take this opportunity to give my thoughts on the 2011 Kansas City Royals. I watch at the very least part of nearly every game and here is my evaluation.
DEFENSE
The Royals defense is one area that is much improved over past years. In the outfield, KC puts three legitimate major leaguers out there every day. Alex Gordon has turned into a very good left fielder. He moves toward the line very well and has made several diving catches. His arm is quick, strong, and accurate. Melky Cabrera is not the flashiest, or speediest, center fielder I’ve every seen but he is consistent. His arm is above average and accurate as well. I love Jeff Francoeur in right field. He moves well and his foot work at setting up to make a throw when he makes a catch is textbook. I don’t know if I’ve seen a player ready himself to throw before he actually makes a catch better than Frenchy. His arm is cannon-like and on target. These guys threw out opponents early and often in April and May and now opposing runners are loathe to take extra bases on the Royals outfield. I think only the Angels (healthy) outfield is better than this trio.
In the infield, Chris Getz is solid if unspectacular at second. Eric Hosmer is a much better fielder on batted balls than his predecessors and he is big and mobile when taking throws. If I have one complaint about Hoss thus far, it is that he swipes at low throws sometimes and the ball hasn’t stuck in his glove. This is something that will only get better with time. Wilson Betemit has been barely adequate at third. He comes in real well but hard hit balls cause him some issues. He has made some very costly fielding errors late in close ball games that lost a couple of games. Mike Aviles has not impressed me at all with his glove at any position yet in his career. His bat is what gets him playing time. Alcides Escobar, on the other hand, is otherworldly at short. I don’t give a crap what he hits (although it would be nice if he were closer to .250 than .200). He makes at least one spectacular play nearly every day. Great range, great arm, and great decision making – he is the whole package with the glove. I don’t how many runs he has saved in the field but it is not an insignificant number.
Behind the plate, Matt Treanor and Bryan Pena have done just fine. Pena has really improved his work with the glove but still has a ways to go to be considered an average fielding catcher. Both guys have been brick walls while blocking the plate. The outfield has been amazing in getting terrific throws delivered to the plate but Treanor and Pena have been textbook about not giving base runners access to the dish.
OFFENSE
Alex Gordon has made great strides in his improvement at the plate. His move to the leadoff spot is starting to look more and more permanent. He actually seems very comfortable there and doesn’t appear to be trying to kill every pitch. I would love nothing more than to see him succeed there. It could be very valuable in future seasons. Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur have been terrific signings for Dayton Moore. They have been professional and steady and clutch at the plate. For all the crap Moore has taken over the years (rightfully so) for some of his MLB signings, he deserves credit for these two guys. Wilson Betemit is a very good hitter from both sides of the plate. He can flat out rake. There isn’t tons of power there but he seems to avoid long term slumps. Mike Aviles is very streaky and doesn’t seem to hit many singles but I have little problem with him as a utility guy. Eric Hosmer looks like he is the real deal. He survived his first slump and has made the necessary adjustments sooner rather than later. I’m sure he will still have struggles, being a 21 year old hitter in the majors, but I am excited to watch this guy for years to come. Chris Getz doesn’t offer all that much with the bat but he does not seem to be over matched and he doesn’t give a lot of at bats away with foolish swings. Treanor and Pena have been adequate at the plate. Both have had some key hits but are not all that talented with the bat. With the make-up of this team, I’m not upset with their production. This leaves Alcides Escobar. As awesome as he is with the glove, he is equally frustrating with the bat. I see glimpses of ability now and then but he gives up too many at bats. He takes way too many swings at pitches way off the plate, especially outside and he grounds out weakly to the pitcher way too often. He needs to work out some things mechanically.
BULLPEN
So far, Kansas City’s vaunted minor league system has paid off in the bullpen. Six rookies have made their debut in the pen and most have contributed positively. Aaron Crow has excelled and the diminutive Tim Collins leads the team in appearances. Rule 5 hurler Nate Adcock is improving and I see a bright future for him. Louis Coleman looks to me like he could be an above average set up man in time. Everett Teaford looks to have pretty decent stuff. Greg Holland, who had 15 unspectacular appearances last season, has looked terrific so far in 2011. Blake Wood maybe the weakest of these young guys but I’ve had to suffer worse in my years as a Royals fan. Flame throwing Jeremy Jeffres had some early opportunities but he struggled with his control. He is now working at stretching out his innings to maybe start in AAA. Considering the fact these guys are all young and very inexperienced, they have been terrific. They do walk too many as a group and they are throwing too many innings. One, of many, things that have frustrated me over the years is that KC never seemed to develop any home grown bullpen arms but I believe that is changing in a very big way.
The Royals best and most experienced pitcher in the pen is also the one who is struggling the most. All-Star Joakim has been all over the place with his control. I have been watching very closely and I don’t think it is injury related but something is wrong. I don’t know if it is mechanical or if he is tipping his pitches but his control is severely lacking and he has just lost his 12-to-6 curve ball. Aaron Crow has replaced him as the closer but I really think this will be very temporary. I will be very surprised if Soria doesn’t figure it out quickly.
ROTATION
Does anyone have a load of TNT? If anything needed blown up, it is this awful collection of number 5 and 6 starters. “Ace” Luke Hochevar just continues not to get it. At times, he looks absolutely dominant but his inconsistency is mind boggling. It isn’t just from start to start, but inning to inning. It is baffling. The dude has given up 13 HR in 78 IP. Wow. At this point, unless his dim bulb of a mind finally lights up, we are looking at a 4th starter at best, and to be frank, that’s not acceptable from him. Jeff Francis has been a steady professional in 2011. If Francis was my number 5 start, I could live with that but not my number 2 man. I have had about all of Kyle Davies I can take. It wouldn’t hurt my feelings if I never saw that guy in a Royals uniform again. See Luke Hochevar for lists of complaints – they are the same ones for Davies. Bruce Chen is the same guy as Jeff Francis and I feel the same about him as I do Francis. Now the really ugly - Sean O’Sullivan and Vin Mazarro. I like the tenacity and professionalism of the former but he is seriously lacking enough talent to be a big league starter. Maybe he can have some success as a reliever. I don’t know. As to the latter, I haven’t seen enough of him but I am not a fan of his demeanor or is 22+ ERA. I couldn’t tell you if he is better than O’Sullivan or not and that should be enough to tell you he isn’t very good. Finally, recently acquired Felipe Paulino has pitched 9.1 scoreless innings for the Royals, with 7 K, 0 BB, and 5 HA. As a Royal fan, I wouldn’t get too excited. His career numbers are similar to Hochevar and Davies in that he has decent strikeout numbers, with lots of walks and hits allowed. Translation – good arm, no control. Sound familiar? It would be great if his light is coming on, now, for the Royals, but don’t hold your breath. It seems to be that he fits right in with all of the other mounds mannequins KC runs out there every day.
The future of this franchise for pitching is supposed to be in its minor league system. Danny Duffy has made three starts and has been all over the place with his control but I have seen glimpses and I am excited about him. He is still a thrower and not a pitcher but he is only 22 years old. He has time to grow. The Royals were dealt a blow this week by the news that John Lamb, considered by many to be the Royals best pitching prospect, will be having TJ surgery, pretty much taking him out of the picture for two years. That is too bad – KC could use him sooner. Michael Montgomery has been struggling in AAA lately. I was hoping he would be called up over the next few weeks but that doesn’t appear as a possibility now. Hopefully he will right the ship quickly and get back on track soon. An interesting guy is Jake Odorizzi. He is 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in single A. He also has 74 K in 52.2 IP and only 14 BB. He should be in AA soon and AAA not long after that. KC needs him sooner rather than later, I think. I’m afraid KC is stuck with the chumps they have for a while until Montgomery and Odorizzi are ready.
IMMEDIATE FUTURE
What do I see happening in the immediate future, between now and the All-Star break? I really only see two possible call-ups at this point. It would not surprise me to see the Royals move Wilson Betemit soon to make room for power prospect 3 bagger, Mike Moustakus. I think Betemit has some nice value as hitter. A couple of NL teams strike as needing a 3B, Florida and Colorado. He would be nice to see Moustakus get three plus months in the bigs to get his feet wet. He seems to take a while to adjust to each progressive level when it comes to hitting. I don’t see his average being as good as Hosmer’s but he has legitimate power. He is hitting .292 at AAA with 10 HR, 12 doubles, and 42 RBI in 50 games. I think he will be an above average run producer in the majors soon.
The other possible move on the horizon is the call for Lorenzo Cain. If the Royals continue their recent slide in the AL Central standings (and with this rotation it is inevitable), Melky Cabrera becomes expendable. Like Betemit, I think the Melk Man has value. I think he has shown enough to be a commodity to other teams. I have no problem with Melky. I like him but I don’t see him in the Royals’ future. Cain is hitting .293 in Omaha with modest power. He does strike out a little too much and I would like to see that ratio improve, but I think he is in KC by the end of July at the latest and Cabrera is probably gone. The issue I am most curious about is what will the Royals do with Francoeur? On one hand, he is a lot like Cabrera in that he will have value to other teams. On the other hand, I can really see Moore offering Frenchy an extension. The Royals outfield prospects, as a group, isn’t deep or talented as maybe some other positions. David Lough is having a very nice season in AAA but isn’t considered an everyday MLB player by many. Converted catcher Will Myers is still at least a full season away, probably two. Frenchy is a great clubhouse guy by all accounts and has really taken to hitting coach, Kevin Seitzer’s hitting approach. And I love his defense. At 27 years old with over 3400 MLB Abs, Frenchy could end up being a gem of a signing. I think I would welcome to an extension, if it weren’t for more than 2 years.
That really is about all I have. I think the Royals have really improved in three of the four areas but I don’t see much chance of improvement in the rotation. If that is the case, KC will probably stay competitive (they are a scrappy, never say die bunch – witness their 8 walk off wins), but most likely will finish 4th in the AL Central. The 2011 season will probably be about what we thought it would be, with maybe a few more wins in the end. At least they are fun to watch most nights.
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