I’m getting more and more worried about the 2012 outlook for the Kansas City Royals. 2011 was supposed to be the year when we catch glimpses of the bright future. The year in which the Royals would struggle through but the year their vaunted minor league would begin to product results. To a certain extent, these last two statements are, in fact, happening as expected. There is one major piece missing that makes me afraid for 2012.
It’s not Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas that worry me. Both are getting a chance to prove themselves and work through some natural growing pains. I feel good about what I’ve seen from both of them. I see what the Royals see in them and I think both will be very good major league hitters with time and experience. It’s not the young arms Kansas City has been developing for the bullpen. Tim Collins, Blake Wood, Everett Teaford, Greg Holland, and Louis Coleman have emerged as legitimate major league arms. The Royals scouting team should be commended for focusing on Nate Adcock and grabbing him in last year’s Rule 5 draft. It is hard to believe Adcock was still A ball with the Pirates. He has held his own very well for most of the season. These six pitchers all have plenty of room to improve but I think they have done very well. I am impressed the Royals’ brain trust believed what they were seeing in spring training and gave a bullpen spot to Aaron Crow. He has been terrific and this leads to my worries.
Kansas City had 5 highly rated starting pitchers in most preseason prospect lists – Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Danny Duffy, Chris Dwyer, and Jake Odorizzi. This is where I get worried. It doesn’t appear the pitching prospects will be ready to compete next year as hoped. Duffy is with the big league ball club right now. He has struggled mightily with his control in the bigs thus far but has shown enough for the Royals to go with a 6-man rotation rather than returning him to AAA. When he throws strikes, he has shown he can garner some strike outs but he definitely needs seasoning. From here, though, things aren’t looking very rosy. Mike Montgomery has spun his wheels in AAA. With an ERA near 6 and a WHIP over 1.5, Montgomery has not put himself in position to get a call-up. John Lamb underwent Tommy John surgery and is out for at least a year and it is doubtful we can look for him before 2013. Chris Dwyer is in AA and his numbers are unfortunately similar to Montgomery’s in AAA. Finally, there is Jake Odorizzi. For some inexplicable reason, Odorizzi is still languishing in A ball where he has been absolutely dominant. He sports a 2.87 ERA and a WHIP of 1.15 through 15 starts. He has 103 Ks to only 22 BB in 78.1 IP. Why he hasn’t been promoted to AA is beyond me. I don’t see what he left to prove.
So, three of the 5 top pitching prospects are either hurt or performing in a very disappointing fashion. At this point, other than Duffy, I can’t see any of these other arms making the roster as early as the start of the 2012 season. What will the Royals do? Right now, they have a bunch of number five starters. Will they resign Kyle Davies? I just threw up in my mouth a little at the very thought. I don’t want to watch that guy throw another pitch in a Royals uniform. Ever. Bruce Chen or Jeff Francis? Both are serviceable back end of the rotation guys but is this how a team competes? I hardly think so. Will Luke Hochevar ever get it? He looks brilliant at times and terrible at others, unfortunately it is often inning to inning. Felipe Paulino has showed signs of some real talent but I feel like I’ve seen this act before. He has looked very good for the Royals at times, and his strikeout to walk ratio has been terrific, but historically he hasn’t been good. Are Sean O’Sullivan or Vin Mazzaro the answers for 2012? Please, please, please let that not be the case. What O’Sullivan lacks in talent he makes up for in heart and Mazzaro doesn’t seem to have either. And neither is even close to being the right answer to the rotation woes. Are we really going to have to suffer through another disaster in 2012? I do not see any way to avoid it.
Are there any other possible arms in the minors that can help? By the numbers, the answer is no. No one has stepped up. The only hope from AAA may be Jeremy Jeffress but he has been a disaster since being demoted. Maybe Montgomery can turn it around. Even in AA, no one appears close. Only Kelvin Herrera, a reliever, has been outstanding with 28 Ks and 1 walk in 22.1 IP with a 1.61 ERA and a .76 WHIP. In A ball, besides Odorizzi, Elisaul Pimentel and Noel Arguelles both have eye popping numbers but there is no hope for them to be far enough along to make the 2012 rotation.
This takes us back to Aaron Crow. I am loath to tinker with success but the Royals have little choice. I think Crow has to be a strong candidate for the 2012 rotation. Leave him alone in 2011, at least until September. But in spring training, they will have to stretch him out. He may be the only choice.
Let’s face it. Kansas City is not going to attract any big name free agent starting pitchers and couldn’t afford to compete with the big boys even if someone showed interest. The Royals are stuck. It looks like some of the offensive players are on the proper path to the majors, and it looks like there is bullpen depth lined up in the minors but the future is starting to look bleak as far as starting pitchers go. And I am worried…
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