Tourney Chances for the Jayhawks

Trying to predict the outcome of the annual March Madness extravaganza is never an easy thing.  As parity becomes more prevalent in college basketball (some would argue that it is mediocrity, not parity), the excitement of the tournament has never been higher.  Tuesday night’s play-in games were absolutely thrilling, with one team trailing by 16 points with less than 5 minutes to go, then charging back for the win, and in the other game, one team scored 55 points in the first fifteen minutes, building a 25 point lead, but only scoring 17 points the rest of the way to lose in the end.  What a way to start the tournament!

The Kansas Jayhawks have, in my opinion, overachieved all season.  They ran out basically 5 BCS caliber players and still won the Big XII.  It did not hurt my feelings at all to see them fall early in the conference tournament and then to not have to play until late Friday evening.  This team appeared tired and beat up toward the end of the season and the extra rest certainly will do them no harm.  Yes, it would have been awesome to enjoy yet another KU/MU tilt but I think not having to play a relatively meaningless game against a tough opponent may help KU in the end.

After taking in all the brackets, I did not feel KU got the shaft in their brackets like I usually do.  In fact, after pouring over all of the regions, not one team really jumped out at me as having an overwhelming hard or easy path to the Final Four.  It seems to me that just about every match-up has its risks for the higher seeds.  There just isn’t that much difference in teams this season.  When you have a #15 seed Detroit with more McDonald’s All Americans on its team than #2 seed Kansas, that should tell you all you need to know about the state of college basketball.

I can honestly see KU possibly going down in every round.  Detroit is no slouch and neither St. May’s nor Purdue are pushovers.  KU beat Georgetown earlier in the season but both teams are significantly better than they were.  The Hoyas are a deep, young, athletic team that will be a hard match-up for the Jayhawks.  I assume that either North Carolina or Michigan will make it to the Elite Eight, although there are obviously no guarantees of that either.  If so, KU could beat either team in a scrap.  Of course, they could take a beating from either team, too. 

KU has a recent history of exiting the tournament too early, and with stronger teams than this one.  On the flip side, we as KU fans certainly know how far one player of the year candidate can carry a team.  Kansas has two outstanding players in Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor who will bad match-ups for just about any team.  Throw in a true, shot blocking 7-footer, and a couple of capable, tough defenders, KU’s starting five is as good as any in the nation.  The problem is an achingly thin bench.  If KU gets into any early foul trouble with the top 2 or three players, the lights will dim quickly on the Jayhawks’ hope. 

With all of these things taken into consideration, I think the Jayhawks will make it into the Elite Eight at least.  It would not surprise me at all if the exit earlier than that, and I will be thrilled if they make it to yet another Final Four.  A NC/KU battle for that Final Four spot could be epic.  Ole Roy wouldn’t like it much but as fans, it would be terrific.  If KU could scrap their way into the Final Four, anything could happen.  I think KU is one of eight to twelve teams that have the firepower to win it all. 

Of course, my dream final match-up would be the Kansas Jayhawks versus the Missouri Tigers.  How great would it be to defeat the Tigers in the final game and send them off to the SEC with their tail tucked firmly between their legs.  On the other hand, that match-up would also be my worst nightmare match-up.  Nothing would be worse than for the Tigers to end our great, historic rivalry by beating KU in the National Championship game.  Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, though.  KU has to come out every game and play every minute.  They have a tendency to come out flat, either to begin the game, or out of the locker room after halftime.  This cannot happen in the tourney or they will be done.  They must stay focused, healthy, and out of foul trouble of they want a chance for that Elite Eight.

As I ready for this phenomenally awesome sporting event, I know I will be bitterly disappointed with anything less than an Elite Eight and absolutely thrilled with anything more.  As always, I will cheer my team on as long as they are alive and I will complain initially upon their ouster.  Regardless, I love my team and would never want to follow any other in the country.

Rock Chalk, Jayhawk.  Go KU!!!

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