Musings on American League First Basemen

Ron Washington has got his work cut out for him this week.  How in the world is he going to decide what first basemen to send to Arizona for the All-Star game?  Adrian Gonzalez, he of the .361 average, and the 44 extra base hits, and the 111 runs produced, will be the starter voted in by fans.  After that, Washington could choose any of five one baggers and not go wrong.

Paul Konerko seems to get better with age.  The 35-year old has 21 home runs and 60 RBI to go with his .324 average.  Miguel Cabrera has not carried his off season, off field issues onto the diamond.  The Tiger is hitting .332, with 15 round trippers and 52 RBI.  Michael Young is making the Rangers thrilled they did not trade him in the off season.  All Young is doing is raking at a .323 pace, while knocking 7 homers and 53 runs batted in.  In New York, all Big Tex has done is lead the league in home runs with 24 and knock 62 runs.  Finally, despite missing three weeks to injury, Adam Lind is hitting .314, with 16 home runs and 49 RBI.  Wow!  What a list.  Each player can make a legitimate case.  The only one I might discount is Mark Teixeira, but only because there will be a number of Yankees voted as starters already.  Big Tex could actually lead the league in home runs and have to watch the game from home.

Not only is the position loaded at the top but it runs deep with young, up and coming talent.  Justin Smoak, Eric Hosmer, Mark Trumbo, and Mitch Moreland look like they will insure the future power of the position.  This list doesn’t even include a guy like former MVP, Justin Morneau, or players who play the position often enough to qualify at the position - players like Billy Butler, Carlos Santana, Howie Kendrick, and Michael Cuddyer.  Even Casey Kotchman is raking with a .338 average.  The position could get even deeper if the Twins finally wise up and give Joe Mauer some games there, especially with Morneau out for a while. 

The only two teams not represented by this list of studs are Baltimore, who has the aging former All-Star, Derrick Lee playing first, and Oakland who has…Connor Jackson and Mark Ellis holding down the fort now. 

For fantasy players, all this depth is great.  Most leagues play with a designated hitter, or a utility player, not to mention corner infielders.  All these first baseman mean that every fantasy owner probably has at least one of these players on their rosters.  If you have two or three, you are probably doing just fine this season. 

If you are Ron Washington, it means you will probably have a headache before this weekend is over.

Keeper League Trades

There are as many rules on trading as there are fantasy baseball league.  These rules usually evolve to suit the personalities of the particular owners of each league.  Sometimes I think leagues, including all four of the leagues I’m presently in to a certain extent, legislate themselves so much it makes it hard to work trades.  What is to blame for such contentiousness about trading in some leagues?

To a certain extent, leagues that play for money have a built in reason to protect one’s interests.  If there is a significant cash prize, each owner, for as long as they are in contention, have motivation to pick through each aspect of a competitor’s player swap.  In my experience though, money is always a secondary reason to want to restrict opponent’s trading powers.  The main concern is simply winning.  This point was driven home for me very recently.  This season, I joined a four year old, 20-team, mixed, head-to-head league that does not play for money.  In twenty plus years of fantasy, this is the first league I’ve ever been in without playing for money.  I did not know what to expect.  There was a trade in which one owner traded Neal Walker and David Wright for Mike Moustakus (still in the minors at the time).  This is a limited keeper league and this deal created quite a stir.  With no money involved, it was all about the league itself and the competition.  I felt much better about the ensuing discussion because it wasn’t really about personal agendas, just about the best interests of the league and I was thrilled to see it.

The thing a lot of owners worry about is collusion.  This is when one owner purposely colludes with another to help one of them win a league by trading him star players.  In all my many years and leagues, I have only seen one trade I really, truly, believed was collusion and it was in the early 1990s.  While I’m sure this may happen on occasion, I doubt it happens too much.  Most of my fellow owners are too competitive to help anyone else or they have too much integrity to even consider this kind of thing.  In my four leagues, there are 65 total owners and I just couldn’t imagine any one of them purposely colluding with another owner on the sly. 

I have a firm belief that each owner MUST trust the judgment of every other owner in their league to do what is best for their own team.  One should always trust that no individual owner would purposely hurt their own team.  I am loath to question trades because I have enough problems managing my own rosters, let alone the rosters of every other team in my leagues.  Of course, I am not saying that some owners don’t make moves I consider stupid.   Each and everyone one of us have our own opinions and our own methods for rating players.  By questioning someone’s trade, we are basically telling them they are idiots and aren’t fit to own a fantasy team. 

There is a flip side to this coin.  Sometimes a trade can be so lopsided that it can affect the league as a whole by causing an unfair swing in the standings.  This is a very fine line.  In keeper leagues, most trades tend to happen between the teams still in contention that season and those teams who are trying to rebuild for the next season.  These trades, by nature, will not be even.  One team is receiving, usually, non keepers, but statistically useful players, often star players.  The other team is receiving cheap, young players, sometimes prospects with no major league experience.  One team is getting proven commodities and the other team is speculating on the increased value of certain young players for the following year.  They will not be equitable.  Owners need to stop expecting them to be.  If you are not someone who likes these kinds of trades, then you probably shouldn’t be in a keeper league.  I don’t know how anyone can evaluate someone else’s trade because doing it on stats alone just isn’t possible.  Too many variables are in place here – salary and contract status have as much, or more, to do with it as statistical value.

What are leagues and their commissioners to do?  It is my opinion if you are in, or are running, a keeper league, then you must let these trades go through.  If you are of the belief that a specific owner has a history of making trades that hurt the league as a whole, then maybe that owner needs to be replaced.  You MUST trust the simple fact that the other owners know what is best for their own team, regardless of how you feel about any particular trade or how it affects your own team.  Personal agendas have to be put aside.  I am not sure what other solutions are available that can truly work.

I’m also don't know how possible it is to completely trust in the fact that every other owner knows what they are doing.  In reality, some don’t.  Maybe they don’t know as much about baseball, or don’t have as much time to study stats and trends, or maybe they just do it for the fun of it.  I have seen some trades go through that have quite frankly really ticked me off because of their lopsidedness and I have reacted negatively because it hurt my team and helped a competitor.  This is simply human nature.  We must fight these bad feelings and accept the fact that we are not going to agree with all trades.  Just because I don’t like it doesn’t mean the owner is wrong or doesn’t know what he is doing. 

I have seen many ways leagues have “solved” these problems.  Some leagues hold a league wide vote to approve all trades.  I don’t see this working because most owners will just vote their personal agendas.  Some leagues leave it to the commissioner to decide if a trade should go through.  This works if the commissioner isn’t an owner in the league or is above reproach.  I applaud any and all commissioners out there who can pull that off.  Some use a trade arbitrator, someone on the outside, with no stake at all in the league.  I think this can work to a certain extent.  The biggest problem is the arbitrator only gets a limited look at your league and you must make sure he has a complete look at your league’s rules and standings.  This can be difficult at best.  You also have to deal with owners who don’t get their way when a decision goes against them and this can be trying.  You can also use a committee to rule and trades, say 3-5 owners.  This way, you get different opinions and hopefully owners who will think about the league as a whole and not how any trade will affect their own rosters.  Or, quite simply, you let everything go through and trust your fellow owners.

I don’t know if this possible for most leagues.  I think that bitching about trades is a time honored tradition for most fantasy league players.  It is not human nature to trust other’s opinions enough to separate our own personal agendas from what is best for others.   I just wish there was a clear cut solution to this perennial problem of competition and human nature. 

Check out my tv and movie review blog at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com or follow my twitter for blog updates at @jawsrecliner

I want to thank everyone for the support and their interest.

A Longer Look

Every season there are several players who outperform their historical stats.  In real baseball it is called a career year.  In fantasy baseball it is an outlier.  I decided to look at of few players who are either over performing or under achieving so far this year.  I wanted to see if we should look at these players to see if they will continue on their present paths or will they return to their normal numbers.  These are some players I want to give a longer look.

Phil Humber was a first round choice of the Mets.  He was traded to the Twins in the Santana deal and he was waived by both the Royals and the A’s in the last year.  For the first time in his career, he is living up to that draft status.  In 2011, he has a 2.95 ERA and a .97 WHIP.  Will these numbers continue?  After watching him pitch last year for the Royals, I would say no.  Nothing about him impressed me very much.  He looked how a career long reliever/spot starter would look.  What do the numbers say this season?  The biggest thing that stands out for me is his BAbip (batting average on balls in play).  The baseline for this stat is always right around .300.  Humber’s is an incredibly low .221.  Some regression is overdue here.  What helps though, is Humber is more of a ground play pitcher than a fly ball one.  He coaxes ground balls about 43% of the time and this is lower than the past couple of season (brief stints).  He is also walking few batters, with only 19 BB in 82 IP.  So what is my conclusion?  His BAbip can’t continue at this rate.  More balls are going to start falling.  This will drive his ERA and WHIP up.  Getting a lot of ground balls will probably erase some of these extra base runners with more double plays.  If he keeps his walk rate down, I think he will continue to be effective.  Expect a rise in his ERA and WHIP but don’t expect him to crash and burn in the second half. 

Alexi Ogando befuddles me.  I have watched him pitch 5 games this season and I cannot see what is making him so effective.  His stuff does not look exceptional yet few batters are squaring up his pitches.  His numbers are exceptional – 2.10 ERA and .90 WHIP.  Will Ogando continue to put up these numbers?  I have doubted it all season and he continues to prove me wrong.  Let’s take a closer look.  Much like Humber, Ogando has been extremely lucky.  His BAbip is extremely low at .210.  This number has to rise, especially because, unlike Humber, he is not a ground ball pitcher.  63% of all batted balls against Ogando are in the air.  In his home park, that ain’t good.  Eventually, all these balls in the air are going to find gaps or fly over walls.  He has only allowed 13 extra base hits all season.  That is fantastic, but unsustainable, in my opinion.  If he continues, though, to avoid the sweet spots, he will surprise me.  I look for some major regression at some point with Ogando.  I would trade him soon.  In fact, I already did, although it was apparently too early.

Matt Joyce is hitting extremely well thus far.  He has probably been the most important bat in Tampa’s lineup.  What can we look for over the next few months?  For one thing, his average has got to drop soon.  His BAbip is at an unsustainable .373.  Some of those balls are going to start getting caught in the following weeks.  I am also worried because his walk numbers are down as well.  Last year, with 36 more AB, he had 18 more walks.  If some of those balls start getting caught and his average starts to drop, he is not being patient enough to fight through a sustained right now.  Joyce is an extreme fly ball hitter, so I think he can sustain his power numbers and be a legitimate asset in those power categories but if you expect him to bat .330 all year, I’m afraid you are going to be disappointed.  Keep in mind we are only about two weeks away from career high in AB for Joyce.  We don’t know if more exposure will be a good thing or bad thing yet. 

Lance Berkman is hitting like he is 25 years old.  Unfortunately, he’s 35.  Right now, he looks like the Berkman of old.  His average is good and his BAbip is not out of line.  His power has been terrific as well.  My concern with Berkman is strictly about age.  What will happen to Berkman in July and August, in St. Louis, playing a lot in the field?  His batting EYE and flyball/line drive/groundball numbers are pretty close to his career averages.  To me, it is all about his age and I don’t think I would gamble that Lance will maintain these numbers the rest of the season.

Adam Dunn is having a career year.  Unfortunately, it is going the wrong way.  Dunn has been horrible.  Awful.  I cannot describe it any other way.  We all know it and anyone who owns Dunn in any fantasy leagues is begging the big guy to turn it around soon.  His BAbip is a little low at .261 so we should expect a rise in average as this number rectifies itself.  The problem is Dunn isn’t putting many balls in play.  He has struck out 84 times so far and the few times I have watched him, he has looked lost.  He has missed balls by a foot at times.  Look, Dunn has always been a swing for the fences kind of guy and that’s fine.  Right now though, he is just not making enough contact to pull himself out of this slump.  My gut tells me though, Dunn will eventually right himself.  All it will take is for him to get red hot for a week or so and it will be on.  If he gets hot, watch out for the White Sox.  If I could, I would try to get Dunn cheap and take a chance.

Justin Morneau is a worrisome case for me.  His concussion issues are well documented and I am starting to get the feeling Morneau may never return to his former greatness.  His low batting average (.225) is due, in part, to his low BAbip, .249.  In theory, this number should revert more to the norm.  Morneau is a weird example for this stat.  A look at his career BAbip show a startling pattern of being way below or way above the league wide average of .300.  His career BAbip is a low .293, but he hasn’t been close to that number in any particular season.  I don’t know how much this number will correct itself with Morneau.  Another concern for me is his walk rates are way below his career norms.  His present walk rate is at 6%.  His career lowest was 8% early in his career.  Last season before his injury, it was 14%.  I don’t know if he isn’t seeing the ball well or what but he is turning into a hacker.  Finally, a home run for every 53 AB is not the mark of a power hitter.  This number really scares me because he is a natural power hitter and he has no power right now.  The longer this goes on, the less likely I expect a recovery.  I hate to say this but Morneau may be finished as a productive star in the majors.

These are just a few players who I am keeping an eye on.  I think each is an extreme case in his own right and how they perform from here will determine if they future stars or just average players.

For those who enjoy movies and tv, check out my reviews blog at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and my twitter Joel Wagler@jawsrecliner

A Second Blog

I'm just letting everyone know that I have started a second blog - http://jawsrecliner.blogspot.com/ - which will be dedicated more to movies and television.  I seem to have two distinct audiences - those that seem to only care for the sports posts and those who enjoy the entertainment posts.  Now, my readers don't have to deal with the topics in which they are less interested.

I appreciate all my readers and I hope separating my topics will make it easier for all of you to follow just the things you like. 

Keep in mind I will maintain both blogs - this one, dedicated more to sports, and http://jawsrecliner.blogspot.com/, dedicated more to movies and tv.  Feel free to bookmark one or both, and I hope I can build up followers for both blogs.

Thanks to all of you for your interest.

Joel

Royals Evaluation: A Third Through 2011

The baseball season has just passed its one third mark and I wanted to take this opportunity to give my thoughts on the 2011 Kansas City Royals.  I watch at the very least part of nearly every game and here is my evaluation.

DEFENSE

The Royals defense is one area that is much improved over past years.  In the outfield, KC puts three legitimate major leaguers out there every day.  Alex Gordon has turned into a very good left fielder.  He moves toward the line very well and has made several diving catches.  His arm is quick, strong, and accurate.  Melky Cabrera is not the flashiest, or speediest, center fielder I’ve every seen but he is consistent.  His arm is above average and accurate as well.  I love Jeff Francoeur in right field.  He moves well and his foot work at setting up to make a throw when he makes a catch is textbook.  I don’t know if I’ve seen a player ready himself to throw before he actually makes a catch better than Frenchy.  His arm is cannon-like and on target.  These guys threw out opponents early and often in April and May and now opposing runners are loathe to take extra bases on the Royals outfield.  I think only the Angels (healthy) outfield is better than this trio.

In the infield, Chris Getz is solid if unspectacular at second.  Eric Hosmer is a much better fielder on batted balls than his predecessors and he is big and mobile when taking throws.  If I have one complaint about Hoss thus far, it is that he swipes at low throws sometimes and the ball hasn’t stuck in his glove.  This is something that will only get better with time.  Wilson Betemit has been barely adequate at third.  He comes in real well but hard hit balls cause him some issues.  He has made some very costly fielding errors late in close ball games that lost a couple of games.  Mike Aviles has not impressed me at all with his glove at any position yet in his career.  His bat is what gets him playing time.  Alcides Escobar, on the other hand, is otherworldly at short.  I don’t give a crap what he hits (although it would be nice if he were closer to .250 than .200).  He makes at least one spectacular play nearly every day.  Great range, great arm, and great decision making – he is the whole package with the glove.  I don’t how many runs he has saved in the field but it is not an insignificant number.

Behind the plate, Matt Treanor and Bryan Pena have done just fine.  Pena has really improved his work with the glove but still has a ways to go to be considered an average fielding catcher.  Both guys have been brick walls while blocking the plate.  The outfield has been amazing in getting terrific throws delivered to the plate but Treanor and Pena have been textbook about not giving base runners access to the dish. 

OFFENSE

Alex Gordon has made great strides in his improvement at the plate.  His move to the leadoff spot is starting to look more and more permanent.  He actually seems very comfortable there and doesn’t appear to be trying to kill every pitch.  I would love nothing more than to see him succeed there.  It could be very valuable in future seasons.  Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur have been terrific signings for Dayton Moore.  They have been professional and steady and clutch at the plate.  For all the crap Moore has taken over the years (rightfully so) for some of his MLB signings, he deserves credit for these two guys.  Wilson Betemit is a very good hitter from both sides of the plate.  He can flat out rake.  There isn’t tons of power there but he seems to avoid long term slumps.  Mike Aviles is very streaky and doesn’t seem to hit many singles but I have little problem with him as a utility guy.  Eric Hosmer looks like he is the real deal.  He survived his first slump and has made the necessary adjustments sooner rather than later.  I’m sure he will still have struggles, being a 21 year old hitter in the majors, but I am excited to watch this guy for years to come.  Chris Getz doesn’t offer all that much with the bat but he does not seem to be over matched and he doesn’t give a lot of at bats away with foolish swings.  Treanor and Pena have been adequate at the plate.  Both have had some key hits but are not all that talented with the bat.  With the make-up of this team, I’m not upset with their production.  This leaves Alcides Escobar.  As awesome as he is with the glove, he is equally frustrating with the bat.  I see glimpses of ability now and then but he gives up too many at bats.  He takes way too many swings at pitches way off the plate, especially outside and he grounds out weakly to the pitcher way too often.  He needs to work out some things mechanically.

BULLPEN

So far, Kansas City’s vaunted minor league system has paid off in the bullpen.  Six rookies have made their debut in the pen and most have contributed positively.  Aaron Crow has excelled and the diminutive Tim Collins leads the team in appearances.   Rule 5 hurler Nate Adcock is improving and I see a bright future for him.  Louis Coleman looks to me like he could be an above average set up man in time.  Everett Teaford looks to have pretty decent stuff.  Greg Holland, who had 15 unspectacular appearances last season, has looked terrific so far in 2011.  Blake Wood maybe the weakest of these young guys but I’ve had to suffer worse in my years as a Royals fan.  Flame throwing Jeremy Jeffres had some early opportunities but he struggled with his control.  He is now working at stretching out his innings to maybe start in AAA. Considering the fact these guys are all young and very inexperienced, they have been terrific.  They do walk too many as a group and they are throwing too many innings.  One, of many, things that have frustrated me over the years is that KC never seemed to develop any home grown bullpen arms but I believe that is changing in a very big way. 

The Royals best and most experienced pitcher in the pen is also the one who is struggling the most.  All-Star Joakim has been all over the place with his control.  I have been watching very closely and I don’t think it is injury related but something is wrong.  I don’t know if it is mechanical or if he is tipping his pitches but his control is severely lacking and he has just lost his 12-to-6 curve ball.  Aaron Crow has replaced him as the closer but I really think this will be very temporary.  I will be very surprised if Soria doesn’t figure it out quickly.

ROTATION

Does anyone have a load of TNT?  If anything needed blown up, it is this awful collection of number 5 and 6 starters.  “Ace” Luke Hochevar just continues not to get it.  At times, he looks absolutely dominant but his inconsistency is mind boggling.  It isn’t just from start to start, but inning to inning.  It is baffling.  The dude has given up 13 HR in 78 IP.  Wow.  At this point, unless his dim bulb of a mind finally lights up, we are looking at a 4^th starter at best, and to be frank, that’s not acceptable from him.  Jeff Francis has been a steady professional in 2011.  If Francis was my number 5 start, I could live with that but not my number 2 man.  I have had about all of Kyle Davies I can take.  It wouldn’t hurt my feelings if I never saw that guy in a Royals uniform again.  See Luke Hochevar for lists of complaints – they are the same ones for Davies.  Bruce Chen is the same guy as Jeff Francis and I feel the same about him as I do Francis.  Now the really ugly - Sean O’Sullivan and Vin Mazarro.  I like the tenacity and professionalism of the former but he is seriously lacking enough talent to be a big league starter.  Maybe he can have some success as a reliever.  I don’t know.  As to the latter, I haven’t seen enough of him but I am not a fan of his demeanor or is 22+ ERA.  I couldn’t tell you if he is better than O’Sullivan or not and that should be enough to tell you he isn’t very good.   Finally, recently acquired Felipe Paulino has pitched 9.1 scoreless innings for the Royals, with 7 K, 0 BB, and 5 HA.  As a Royal fan, I wouldn’t get too excited.  His career numbers are similar to Hochevar and Davies in that he has decent strikeout numbers, with lots of walks and hits allowed.  Translation – good arm, no control.  Sound familiar?  It would be great if his light is coming on, now, for the Royals, but don’t hold your breath.  It seems to be that he fits right in with all of the other mounds mannequins KC runs out there every day.

The future of this franchise for pitching is supposed to be in its minor league system.  Danny Duffy has made three starts and has been all over the place with his control but I have seen glimpses and I am excited about him.  He is still a thrower and not a pitcher but he is only 22 years old.  He has time to grow.  The Royals were dealt a blow this week by the news that John Lamb, considered by many to be the Royals best pitching prospect, will be having TJ surgery, pretty much taking him out of the picture for two years.  That is too bad – KC could use him sooner.  Michael Montgomery has been struggling in AAA lately.  I was hoping he would be called up over the next few weeks but that doesn’t appear as a possibility now.  Hopefully he will right the ship quickly and get back on track soon.  An interesting guy is Jake Odorizzi.  He is 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in single A.  He also has 74 K in 52.2 IP and only 14 BB.  He should be in AA soon and AAA not long after that.  KC needs him sooner rather than later, I think.  I’m afraid KC is stuck with the chumps they have for a while until Montgomery and Odorizzi are ready.

IMMEDIATE FUTURE

What do I see happening in the immediate future, between now and the All-Star break?  I really only see two possible call-ups at this point.  It would not surprise me to see the Royals move Wilson Betemit soon to make room for power prospect 3 bagger, Mike Moustakus.  I think Betemit has some nice value as hitter.  A couple of NL teams strike as needing a 3B, Florida and Colorado.  He would be nice to see Moustakus get three plus months in the bigs to get his feet wet.  He seems to take a while to adjust to each progressive level when it comes to hitting.  I don’t see his average being as good as Hosmer’s but he has legitimate power.  He is hitting .292 at AAA with 10 HR, 12 doubles, and 42 RBI in 50 games.  I think he will be an above average run producer in the majors soon.

The other possible move on the horizon is the call for Lorenzo Cain.  If the Royals continue their recent slide in the AL Central standings (and with this rotation it is inevitable), Melky Cabrera becomes expendable.  Like Betemit, I think the Melk Man has value.  I think he has shown enough to be a commodity to other teams.  I have no problem with Melky.  I like him but I don’t see him in the Royals’ future.  Cain is hitting .293 in Omaha with modest power.  He does strike out a little too much and I would like to see that ratio improve, but I think he is in KC by the end of July at the latest and Cabrera is probably gone.  The issue I am most curious about is what will the Royals do with Francoeur?  On one hand, he is a lot like Cabrera in that he will have value to other teams.  On the other hand, I can really see Moore offering Frenchy an extension.  The Royals outfield prospects, as a group, isn’t deep or talented as maybe some other positions.  David Lough is having a very nice season in AAA but isn’t considered an everyday MLB player by many.  Converted catcher Will Myers is still at least a full season away, probably two.  Frenchy is a great clubhouse guy by all accounts and has really taken to hitting coach, Kevin Seitzer’s hitting approach.  And I love his defense.  At 27 years old with over 3400 MLB Abs, Frenchy could end up being a gem of a signing.  I think I would welcome to an extension, if it weren’t for more than 2 years.

That really is about all I have.  I think the Royals have really improved in three of the four areas but I don’t see much chance of improvement in the rotation.  If that is the case, KC will probably stay competitive (they are a scrappy, never say die bunch – witness their 8 walk off wins), but most likely will finish 4^th in the AL Central.  The 2011 season will probably be about what we thought it would be, with maybe a few more wins in the end.  At least they are fun to watch most nights.

My Favorite Movie Scenes

While I think Hollywood has been churning out a whole lot of crap over the past two or three years, I haven’t always believed that was true.  I have been a huge fan of the movies since I first started going to theaters on a regular basis in the early 1980s.  Before having a child, and before other life activities curtailed the opportunities, I went to the movies almost every single weekend, sometimes 2 or 3 times a weekend.  I know, that is a lot of popcorn.  Let’s just say I love movies.  Most of the movies on the list are since 1980.  These are the movies I am most familiar with.  I am sure there are many great moments I have left off.  As it is, I have already extended the list from 10 to 15 because I couldn’t narrow it down.

When someone makes a list of their favorite anything, it is purely subjective.  This list is no different.  In compiling a list of my favorite movie moments, I did not consider the greatness of the movies themselves.  Some of the scenes on this list are long, some are short.  Some are the climatic scenes, some aren’t.  Some are based on the emotions they stirred up in me, and some are just brilliantly conceived and/or executed.  In all cases, I feel the movie makers hit on just the right formula to capture their audiences.

A couple more notes before I get to the list.  I must give a general spoiler alert.  If you haven’t seen any particular film, you may want to just skip that entry and move on to the next one, and let it be enough that the movie was on the list.  In some cases, in due course of explaining my reasons for including a movie, I may reveal some key plot information.  If I ruin anything for anyone, I apologize beforehand.  Also, the names I have given for the scenes are unofficial.  I have tagged them as I have for my own purposes.  Here goes:

15. Brian’s Song – “Brian Dies” – This is the first tear jerker I ever remember seeing.  It requires very little explanation as to why it is on my list.  If the life and death of Brian Piccolo doesn’t bring you to tears, you have to question your own humanity.

14. Saving Private Ryan – “D-Day” – The opening sequence of this terrific World War II film is absolutely brilliant.  It takes a very strong stomach to watch it because it is brutal and graphic, gruesome and realistic.  I can’t imagine any other film capturing the horror of the Allied landing in Normandy any better.  It may portray as much realism as can be watched by the average person but it was filmed with the respect necessary to honor those who fell on those bloody beaches that day.

13. Ferris Buehler’s Day Off – “Twist and Shout” – This is by far the most frivolous entry on my list and I make no apologies.  Who had more fun than Ferris Buehler and when did he have more fun than when he thrust himself onto a parade float to karaoke “Danke Shoen” and “Twist and Shout”?  The crowd choreography is a little silly but that is part of the fun of this sweet scene.  Who didn’t want to sing along with Ferris in this comedy classic?

12. A Few Good Men – “You Can’t Handle the Truth” – With the long history of parodies of this scene, you only need to go back and watch this powerful scene again to appreciate the tension and drama of this terrific movie.  It is maybe Jack Nicholson’s most famous scene as his arrogant Colonel Jessup explodes under Tom Cruise’s Lieutenant Kaffee pressuring questions in this taunt military courtroom drama.   Kaffee has little courtroom experience, little confidence, and little respect.  Jessup really loathes Kaffee but the lawyer prods the volatile colonel into a very dramatic confession.  This movie has a terrific cast and is an underrated film.  Keep an eye on Wolfgang Bodison as Lance Corporal Dawson.  Bodison was unknown at the time but gives an awesome performance.

11. The Cowboys – “The Duke is Dead?” – The best John Wayne westerns were always those that got away from the cookie cutter formulas.  This movie qualifies.  Wayne seldom died in his films, you know, because he was the Duke.  In this western, Wayne hits the trail to take a herd of cattle to market, with only teens and pre-teens as cowhands.  Far fetched premise you say?  It is but it doesn’t matter.  Wayne pushes and prods the youngsters kicking and screaming into manhood and as the end of the trail approaches, cattle rustlers, led by a charmingly evil Bruce Dern.  The young cowherds fight off the bad guys but lose their fearless leader.  It was such a shock because the Duke just doesn’t go out like that.   It is one of my favorite John Wayne movies and its unexpected twist provides reason enough.

10. Good Will Hunting – “No Goodbye” – I think the subtle but touching ending to this movie is ultimately the reason why it won Damon and Affleck the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay.  It was fore shadowed earlier in the film when Affleck’s Chuckie quietly rails on Damon’s Will for not taking advantage of his opportunities.  Chuckie tells Will he would love to show up at Will’s house some morning to pick him up for work and just find Will gone.  No goodbyes.  In the end, Will does just that, to the wry satisfaction of his best buddy.  I love this movie and this ending is the whip cream and cherry on top. 

9. The Lord of the Rings:  The Two Towers – “The Battle for Helm’s Deep” – This is my favorite battle scene of all time.  I don’t care it was mostly CGI.  Back then, this type of special effects was still relatively new and wasn’t being overused by every hack film maker.  Peter Jackson is a genius and nowhere is it more obvious in this incredibly detailed battle.  It is climatic scene in the second installment in this legendary trilogy and Jackson is patient with it, drawing out beautifully.  Big fan of the books, the films, and this scene.

8. Big – “Chopsticks” – Tom Hanks and Robert Loggia playing “Chopsticks” with their feet on a giant keyboard on the floor of a toy store – just imagine.  A terrific scene in a movie that showed off Hanks at his sweetest and most innocent as a young teen trapped in the body of an adult.  Sometimes we forget, because of all of his dramatic work over the past twenty years, Hanks goofy, comedic beginnings.  This is the best of Hanks’ pre-Forrest Gump efforts and well worth a revisit.

7. Million Dollar Baby – “Mo Cuishle” – Make sure the tissue box is close at hand for this deathbed scene.  Maggie Fitzgerald (played by the gutsy Hilary Swank) convinces hardened trainer, Frankie (Clint Eastwood), to become her boxing mentor.  The always brilliant Morgan Freeman rounds out this top notch cast.  The character development is steady and patient and it pays off.  Fitzgerald works her way into Frankie’s heart, leading to the tragic, soul wrenching key scene.  No exaggeration – I cried for several minutes after the film ended.  It is a scene I will never forget.

6. Glory – “The Whipping” – This is the Civil War movie that made Denzel Washington a star and the scene that thrust him into super stardom.  Who will ever forget Private Trip stoically, yet rebelliously, glaring over his shoulder as he is whipped on order of Matthew Brodrick’s Colonel Robert Gould Shaw for an army indiscretion?  The sight of Trip’s old scars on his back, from the way of life from which he escaped, and was fighting against, is gut wrenching.  The irony of the punishment commanded by Colonel Shaw is not subtle but Washington and Broderick handle the scene beautifully.  Morgan Freeman, Adrian Braugher, and Cary Elwes add their considerable talents to this terrific film about the 54^th Massachusetts, the first black regiment recruited in the north during the Civil War. 

5. Apocalypse Now – “I Love the Smell of Napalm” – Robert Duvall’s brief, yet memorable, scene is incredible.  Blaring Wagner’s “Flight of the Valkyries” from speakers mounted on helicopters, Duvall’s not quite sane Lieutenant Colonel Kilgore leads an aerial attack on a riverside Vietnamese village.  After the attack, Kilgore strides across a smoldering, body strewn battleground, oblivious to any danger.  He squats, waxing philosophically.  He utters the famous, and much parodied line “I love the smell of napalm in the morning.  It smells like…victory.”  In the course of a film over two and a half hours long, this brief appearance garnered Duvall a Best Supporting Actor Oscar nomination and it is most deserving.  Duvall played the not-quite-right Kilgore just right.

4. The Empire Strikes Back – “I Am Your Father” – I have always felt this is the most overrated of the six-episode Stars Wars saga.  Most people think I’m crazy because it is also the most favored.  Sit down and watch it sometime.  The story line is barely advanced.  If it weren’t for one of the biggest, if not the biggest, reveals in Hollywood history, I wonder if it would still be the favorite of so many.  Villainous Darth Vadar’s shocking revelation that he is hero Luke Skywater’s father saves this film.  It has nearly nonstop action and fun but until this incredible scene unfolds, the plot nearly fails.  I’m sure George Lucas set it up that way.  I remember, as a youth, when I first watched the movie, I was like, “No way!” upon seeing this cinematic shocker.

3. Dead Poet’s Society – “Captain, My Captain” – This is my favorite Robin Williams movie.  I know, it is sappy and slow but the last half hour is dramatic and terrific.  When Williams’ John Keating is made the scapegoat for a tragedy in no way his fault and forced to resign his teaching position at a private school, shy, reserved student Todd Anderson (Ethan Hawke) pays homage to his fallen mentor.  In a touching reference to an earlier scene in which Keating pushes Anderson to emerge from his shell, Anderson strides to the top of his desk to honor his teacher by quoting Walt Whitman.  His “Captain, my captain” stops Keating at the door.  Classmates join Anderson on their desktops, repeating the phrase as the school dean tries to restrain them.  I have watched this movie a dozen times.  I know what is coming.  I tear up, in anticipation, of the upcoming moment every time.  I’m so attached to this scene, my wife knew it was going to be included on this list.

2. A Time To Kill – “Now Imagine…” – This is a great adaptation of John Grisham’s first, and best, novel.  Matthew McConaughey’s Jake Brigance is hired to defend Carl Lee Haley (Samuel L. Jackson), who, in front of a dozen witnesses, killed the two white men who raped and beat his young daughter.  During the public murder, Haley also shoots and cripples a police officer by accident.  The facts of the case are undisputed, yet Haley pleads with Brigance to get him off.  Set in Mississippi, in a volatile area where the Ku Klux Klan is still active, Brigance must convince a jury of Haley’s white “peers” that a black man was justified in killing two white men in cold blood.  Brigance’s closing argument, which was even more dramatic on film than in print, is shocking, breathtaking, and right on.  This all star cast includes Kevin Spacey, Sandra Bullock, both Sutherlands, Chris Cooper, Oliver Platt, Brenda Fricker, Charles S. Dutton, and Ashley Judd.  I love this movie and I love this powerful scene.  Jackson’s has the best moment of the movie as he realizes what Brigance’s argument is.  Now that is how an actor shows surprise!

1. The Godfather, Part I – “Do You Renounce Satan” – This scene is so powerful and so perfect.  What a way to end one of the greatest movies ever made.  As Michael Corleone stands in a Catholic church, before an alter, before his God, and swears to renounce Satan, his minions are taking out his enemies throughout New York City.  The scene bounces back and forth from the church, where his family has gathered for his son’s baptism, to the various bloodbaths.  Corleone swears another oath and another rival criminal dies.  The music hauntingly crescendos as the scene builds and builds as more oaths are sworn and more people die.  It is brilliant in all of its violent glory.  I don’t know if another scene will ever be shot to match this one’s absolute brilliance and power. 

I hope everyone enjoys reading this as much as I enjoyed writing.  Feel free to blast away at my choices and feel free to submit your own in the comment section.  Thanks for staying with me.  I know it’s a long one.  Forgive me for any errors in spelling or grammar.  It’s a long one to proofread as well. 

My Musings

I hope fans temper their expectations as more and more of the Royals’ prospects make their way to the major league team.  Who knows how unrealistic expectations hindered the development of Alex Gordon and Billy Butler over the past four seasons.  There is a learning curve for these youngsters and they have to be given a chance to adjust and develop.

When are the White Sox going to show Ozzie Guillen the door?  He is a fiery guy who has had some good success in the past but his abrasive, and sometimes abusive, managerial style seems to have lost its effectiveness in the Windy City.

I can’t be the only guy growing tired of the labor situation in the NFL.  The NFL has a terrific product and a lengthy work stoppage could be devastating.  Ask MLB how fans accepted the strike in the 1990s.  I have little patience for either side and see only dollar signs feeding the agendas for both owners and players.  Whether or not that is the case, it is what a lot of fans will see.

How good is Timothy Olyphant in the F/X program Justified?  The show is gritty and tense.  The cast is brilliant but Olyphant is mesmerizing.  Walter Goggins isn’t far behind.  Olyphant has often played the bad guy but I love his soft spoken, not always so good, good guy.  As his boss told him on the show, he really is the “hillbilly whisperer”.

For all of the Jayhawks out there – is it just me or are you getting a little nervous about Kansas’ recruiting class?  I like what coach Self has put together thus far but I would sure like to see a couple more of the top prospects who haven’t signed yet decide to come to Kansas.  At this point, we have to trust that Self knows what he is doing.  He has certainly earned that.

Now that HBO is airing the Game of Thrones, based on the brilliant fantasy novels by George R. R. Martin, I have to voice my discontent about the author.  While this is one of the finest fantasy series I have ever read, Martin has only released the first four books of the series since 1996, and only one in the last ten years, and hasn’t released any in the past six years.  It is a terrible disservice to his fans to take so long between books.  With only three books left, get them done.  Martin tends to work on several projects at once – finish what you have started and stop taking your fans for granted.

It finally seems as if MLB has cleaned up the game.  Offensive numbers seem to be returning to pre-PED levels.  Many believe steroids started in 1987.  It isn’t just coincidence that this was toward the beginning of Jose Canseco’s career.  I am not saying he was the first use to PEDs but I have little doubt he made them more common place.  The game is so much different now that it was 24 years ago.  Pitching is more specialized now and the parks are smaller so maybe a nice balance will develop between pitching and hitting.

How long can Cleveland and Kansas City hold out in the present positions of first and second place in the AL Central?  Both have been pleasant surprises and have shown few signs of fading.  Cleveland’s pitching has been terrific and the Royals have been much better at the plate than anyone could have expected.  I can’t speak with much authority about the readiness of the Indians’ minor league system in supplying Cleveland with help in the future but it is nice the Royals don’t feel the need to rush their prospects.  Kila Ka’aihue struggled mightily but Hosmer forced his way to Kansas City by batting .439 in AAA.  There are no other players, outside an inconsistent rotation, who have played their way off the team.  This only helps the development of those young players.  Hopefully, these two small market teams can continue their solid play and challenge for the division title.  I wouldn’t mind if the Twins and White Six continue to play poorly.

All right, all right, enough of my ramblings.  I am working on a post about Jackie Robinson and hopefully I can get it finished sooner rather than later.  Thanks for reading.