The first three weeks of the baseball season sure were fun for Kansas City fans, weren’t they? Late game heroics, timely hitting, a young, fun, talented, bullpen, solid starting pitching – the Royals were playing great! Man, it was fun.
Well, it’s all over now. After a brutal 0-6 road trip in which the Royals gave up an unfathomable 13 homeruns, Kansas City has slipped under .500 for the season and have started their slide down the AL Central standings. Their timely hitting has cooled off and they only averaged e a little over three and a half runs a game. Although their defense has remained steady, if not spectacular at times, their pitching has tanked badly – as we knew it would eventually.
I recently read a nice article by Craig Brown on www.royalsauthority.com about Kyle Davies. Using the Baseball Reference Play Index, Brown put in the parameters of pitchers who have started in 90% of their career pitching appearances and have pitched at least 700 innings. Brown’s research revealed that since 1901, only five pitchers sport a career ERA over 5.00. Kyle Davies is not only one of them, but he has the worst ERA, by almost half a run, of anyone. Updated through last night’s game, Davies sports an ERA of 5.59. Jason Bere is the next worse at 5.14. Brown went on to discover that Davies also was only one of nine pitchers ever to sport a WHIP over 1.50, and again Davies is the worst (under the stated parameters) ever with an (updated) WHIP of 1.611, again the worst by a mile and the only one over 1.6. Brown had some other categories and ratios which showed Davies ranking as one of the worst – ever. His conclusion, rightly surmised, is that Kyle Davies is the worst starting pitcher – ever. I personally might add that Luke Hochevar, with 300 less innings (significantly less) has a worse ERA than Davies, at 5.61. Now, it should be noted, Hochevar’s WHIP is much better at 1.44 but that is still not very good. Hochevar’s K:BB ratio is much better than Davies’ as well. My point, though, is that Kansas City runs out not one, but two, of the worst starting pitchers imaginable.
Both Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen are guys who have had some success this season but they are both guys who rely on finesse and pitch placement rather than stuff. They both understand how to pitch but both can be pummeled when they are not hitting their spots. They are serviceable, not good, starting pitchers. Let’s face it. Does anyone think Sean O’Sullivan scares any opposing batters even with two good starts thus far? This team, with these starters can still lose 100 games. Their 12-7 start will be just another footnote in the memories of loyal Royals fans.
Kansas City also sports maybe the youngest bullpen in recent history. I have no research to back this up but I cannot imagine many teams ever filling their pen with 4 pitchers with zero experience in the majors at the start of a season, now five with the addition of Louis Coleman. Despite this craziness, I still think the bullpen will be a strength for this team, this season and in the future, as these guys gain experience. Hopefully, a healthy Robinson Tejeda will return and replace a relatively ineffective Blake Wood. Blake Wood would fit in nicely with Hochevar and Davies as a starter, don’t you think? With a healthy Tejeda, the Royals bullpen would be deep and talented, something to build on in the future.
Is help on the way? Are the young guns in the minors actually close to helping out the train wreck of a rotation? Getting there, but not close enough to keep KC competitive this season. Mike Montgomery has a nice 3.00 ERA, but his K:BB is only 18:12 in 21 innings. I would like to see this improve. Maybe the closest to being MLB ready is Daniel Duffy. He has both an ERA and a WHIP at .90, and better yet, a 24:4 K:BB ration in 20 innings. Vin Mazzaro (not considered a top prospect) was terrible his first outing but has improved since. Mazzaro could definitely help as a possible upgrade over the worst major league starter ever, but he doesn’t thrill me. John Lamb, maybe the best pitching prospect, is doing all right at AA with a 3.86 ERA but he has a high Whip at 1.53 and a poor ratio of 12:9. The early numbers of Chris Dwyer and Edgar Osuna show they need quite a bit more seasoning before we can hope for any promotions.
I think we will see Montgomery, Duffy, and Mazzaro this summer. When we see them will depend on if the Royals coaching staff can minimize the implosions of the present rotation. I would like to see these guys by mid-June if their minors numbers continue as they are, and improve some even. There is no reason for these guys not to get their feet a little wet in preparation for 2012.
Meanwhile, the Royals will continue their slide toward the AL central basement. Hopefully, their offense will remain competitive. The experiments of Ka’aihue at first and Getz at second are very close to being over. At least they should be. Eric Hosmer (.408) and Clint Robinson (.347) are producing, meaning Kila’s leash should be getting very short indeed. Scrappy two-bagger Johnny Giavotella is hitting is hitting .315 with no errors. Mike Moustakas is only hitting .237 with 5 errors so he to get both of those numbers straightened out. I am not worried as much about third base right now because Betemit has been producing there for the Royals. Again, as for the pitchers, I don’t look to see any of these guys before mid-June, although it could be sooner for Hosmer if he continues to rake and Ka’aihue continues to falter.
We all knew this would be long season for the Royals and their fans. We’ve had three good weeks to enjoy some exciting play and that will probably have to sustain us for the season. The starting pitching is just too weak for there to be much success for this team. Hang in there Royals fan and just remember those first three weeks in April.
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