Roster Management: Is It Too Early To Panic?

As someone who participates in numerous fantasy leagues each year, there is always that moment when I look at the standings in each league and I have to decide if it is too early to panic.  I am at that moment in one of my leagues right now.  I know, I know.   It has only been eleven days since the season started.  Whenever I reach the particular juncture in the season that I begin to question my decisions on draft, I have to fight back that welling up of panic in the pit of my stomach. 

In this particular league, I am batting a paltry .213, with a skimpy .635 OPS.  Yuck!  I’m in last place in average, OPS, and runs.  Every evening I check my team, hoping for some hits.  Thus far, I have been sadly disappointed.  What was I thinking during our auction, paying good draft dollars for these stiffs?  Did I lose this league that day, before a pitch was thrown?  My gosh, what have I done?

Deep breathes, deep breathes.  Breathe in, breathe out.  Okay.  I got to get a hold of myself.  We are only 11 days in, right?  It’s too early to panic, right?  I’m jumping the gun, right?  The ship is going to right itself, right?  Everything is going to be all right, right?

As I push the hysteria down, as I try to regain my composure, I do have to acknowledge the fact that these questions, these reactions, are real and valid.  I also need to calmly remind myself the second week of the season isn’t even over yet.  We’re not even to tax day yet.  No need to go crazy just yet.

Yes, my team has stumbled horribly out of the gate offensively, but where am I in the standings?  In this particular league, I am presently in second place.  Why am I so panicky?  Again, am I just over re-acting?  This is crazy.  My team is fine; what am I worrying about?

In all seriousness, this is an issue all owners face at one time or another in their fantasy baseball career.  My problem with this team is that I had a nagging feeling going into the season it wasn’t my best effort drafting.  I suspected before the first game of the season this team might not be my strongest.  In all truthfulness, my pitching, at least thus far, has performed better than I anticipated. 

My advice to myself, and to all fantasy baseball owners, is to battle this early season panic.  Eleven days is not far enough into the season to give just evaluations of performances, either good or bad.   My offense is not going to be this bad all season.  A .213 average?  Really?  Wouldn’t that be some kind of all time record low for an average?  My pitching isn’t going to be this solid all year either.  I have a 2.818 ERA and a 1.051 WHIP.  In a league as deep as mine, those are not maintainable numbers.  I have to give things some more time to shake out.

If this is too early, when is it no longer too early?  Many owners will wait through April to make many changes to their rosters.  This isn’t a bad strategy.  Look, you drafted players for a reason.  Shouldn’t you give them a full month to get on track?  Certainly, the players deserve at least a month.  It is very hard, especially with the start my team has had at the plate thus far, for me to be patient that long.  I must wrestle with my natural urge to tinker.  I think owners should give their teams six weeks before pondering wholesale makeovers.  Six weeks gives players who start slow a chance to turn it around and players who played above their ability in April to revert to normal.  It also gives you an opportunity to look at your league as a whole.  Your team won’t be the only one with players over or under achieving. 

Being patient, though, isn’t the same as being blind or stupid.  If you took a chance on a player late for a buck or two, or in a very late round, and that player has not taken the next step or has not performed as well you hoped he might, you should not wait six weeks to boot him.  Or even four weeks for that matter.  If you have a chance to improve your team through a trade or a free agent acquisition, then don’t hesitate to do so.  I have a tendency to look to trade my way out of a slump too early rather than make small tweaks via free agency.  I tend to over-manage early, often to my detriment.  I fight these urges every season and I am getting better over time.  That doesn’t mean I won’t keep an open mind if an opportunity arises for me to improve my roster.

The quality of the player should also help determine how patient you should be.  If it is a good player, you should panic much later than with a crappy player.  This seems like obvious advice, but I am always reading columns or posts from experts who tell us things like sell high and buy low.  How many owners dumped Mark Teixeira last season in the last two weeks in May when he failed to come out of his early slump for the longest time?  If it is player like Big Tex, you wait him out.  Chances are he will come out of it eventually, just like Teixeira did last season.  If it a player like Kila Ka’aihue, who has no history of success, you shouldn’t hang on as long.  Feel free to take advantage of those owners who will buy high and trade low.  Evidently, they are out there.

So, after all this, my advice to myself, as well as all fantasy owners, is to be patient for at least six weeks.  Make minor adjustments to your rosters here and there if you need to.  Listen to offers from owners who are panicking too early.  Cut any dead wood you may have picked up on draft day if it improves your team.  Be patient.  Don’t panic.  Eleven days is too early.  Deep breathes.