Big Week for Tebow & The Broncos

I want to establish right away that I am not a Tebow hater.  I do not hope for his failure.  I think he is a genuine person who is very sincere in his beliefs and faith.  I have no problem with him as a human being.  In my opinion, this whole Tebow phenomenon is silly and much to do about nothing.

Tim Tebow as a team leader seems to have what it takes to be successful.  He is fiery and has a never give up attitude.  He believes he can win any game and that is necessary to win ball games in the NFL.  The problem is that it takes the ability to be able to throw the ball on a consistent basis to be a quarterback who can have success year after year.  This is why I don’t think Tim Tebow is the quarterback of the future for the Denver Broncos.  He simply isn’t a good passer.

Tebow is, however, the quarterback of the present for the Denver Broncos.  He has a very big game for his team coming up this weekend.  He faces the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend and if they win, Denver will win the AFC West and will go to the playoffs.  If they lose, they will go home and face an off season full of questions about their quarterback.

Tebow has a completion percentage of 48%.  That just isn’t very good.  He only had two games over 50%.  It is very difficult to be successful with those numbers.  The last time he faced the Chiefs, he was a whopping 2-8 for 69 yards.  Despite these horrific numbers, the Broncos won the game.  The Broncos as a team have had success and it seems to me that Tebow has received more than his share of the credit.  In many of the games, Tebow has not played well for most of the game but the Denver defense played well enough to keep the game close, setting up opportunities for Tebow to be the star.  To his credit, Tebow has taken advantage of these opportunities.  In one game, the opposing running back made two horrible mistakes, once at the end of regulation and once in overtime, setting up Tebow with chances to tie, and then win this game.  Another game, the Broncos’ defense came up with a late turnover giving Tebow a very short field to produce a late comeback.  Part of being a winner is taking advantage of every chance you get to win games and Tebow has down that thus far.

 Tebow is also very good on his feet.  He is big and strong and he runs without fear.  He creates with his legs and he has enjoyed a lot of success.  Over an extended period of time, how will he hold up taking punishing hits from aggressive defenders trying to take his head off?  My guess is not for long.  In my opinion, Tebow needs to spend a lot of time this off season really working on his accuracy and improving his passing within the pocket.  I’m not saying he can’t improve; he certainly can – and he must.  To me, it would be a bigger story if he came into next year as a better quarterback than his tough performances covering up pedestrian stats this season.

If Tebow and the Bronocs lay an egg this Sunday against the up and down Chiefs, it could be a long off season for Tebow and the Broncos.  Questions about his ability to be The Guy will follow them everywhere for the long winter months and into next summer.  If Tebow performs well and leads his team to victory and a divisional championship, he will be considered The Guy, until the following week that is.  That is what I fear is Tebow’s future in the NFL.  He will always be only as good as his last start.  This is kind of the life of most quarterbacks in the NFL anyway – I think it will always be worse for Tim Tebow.  For whatever reason, there is a large group of people out there who cheer for his failure and will be the most vocal when he doesn’t perform very well.  I think in the end, this just may be his fate in the NFL, for better or worse.

Read movie and television reviews at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and get updates @jawsrecliner

Wouldn't Yu Darvish Look Good in Powder Blue?

While the rumor mill is churning out the word that Toronto is the heavy favorite to win the bid for Japanese sensation, Yu Darvish, I'm not convinced.  I've read that Darvish's bid was higher than Dice K's 51.1 million.  I have also read that Toronto's bid was 48 million.  This would lead me to believe the heavily rumored Blue Jays did not win the bid. 

I am not saying the following is a fact or even a rumor.  I have NOT heard or read anything anything about this.  I just want everyone to know that it would not surprise me at all if the Kansas City Royals submitted the winning bid for Darvish. 

I know some of you are thinking, "Dude is crazy!"  While this statement is undoubtedly correct, I have several reasons for believing this to be possible:

1) I have not read anywhere that the Royals did NOT submit a bid.

2) Dayton Moore plays things very close to the vest.  Many (most) of his moves are big surprises.  The Royals run a tight, quiet ship under Moore - very little is ever leaked.

3) Moore is convinced it is nearly impossible to lure a big name free agent to sign KC.  I have heard him say this. 

4) Moore believes the price in prospects is too high for a team like the Royals to make a trade for the likes of Gio Gonzalez, Jair Jurrjens, etc. Just look at the hall for Matt Latos.

5) Former Royals manager Trey Hillman, who also managed in Japan for several years, is a huge Darvish fan.  I'm sure Moore knows this very well.

6) I think Moore believes the Royals are one top-of-the-rotation pitcher away from being a serious contender for the AL Central.  I can't disagree.  Moore may consider this the only way for Kansas City to get a top starting pitcher without giving up several top prospects.


We all will find out within the next few days what team submitted the highest bid.  I'm not saying it is the Royals.  I am saying it is very possible and I won't be surprised in the least.  This is all speculation on my part based on rumors I have read on the internet, for goodness sake.  I know those rumors aren't worth a red penny.  They just made me stop and analyze the situation,  And, as a Royals fan, it has allowed me to dream a little, even if it is just for a few days.


Thanks for reading.  Check out my movie and tv review page at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and get twitter updates @jawsrecliner

JAW's Raw Topics

I originally was going to write a two page rant on the continued ridiculousness of the BCS but I’m just not mentally prepared to get that fired up right now.  Instead, I will comment on a few topics that have me riled up in general, the BCS just being one of them.

THE BCS

Once again, I think it has come to the point where this system doesn’t work.  It’s not that I think Alabama is undeserving.  They are deserving.  So is Oklahoma State and Stanford.  That these teams don’t get a shot is just stupid.  This is the only sport where the national champion is crowned on opinion and not on the field of play.  If LSU should beat Alabama again (hopefully this time at least one team can score a touchdown), LSU will be crowned champ without them having to play either of the other top teams.  That the BCS should take the coaches’ poll into account in their standings is enough to make their system illegitimate.  Coaches have their own agendas and they are so busy, how can they have the time to make educated decisions on the votes.  It is a stupendously stupid system.

The crazy part is that they could use the BCS bowls as the quarterfinals games.  Each bowl would be guaranteed two premium teams.  The NCAA then could pick a location for the semifinals and final game much like the Final Four.  Think about the money that would pour in for that spectacular event.  It would be gigantic.  One more thing – use the top eight teams.  There will always be those 9^th, 10^th, etc. teams that are left out and that will lead to great discussions every year, much like the NCAA tournament.  This is a win-win situation.  Plus, these games would take place during the winter break and the players wouldn’t even have to miss school.  No-brainer!

THE HOT STOVE LEAGUE

I love this week in December because it brings baseball back into the limelight, even for just a few days.  What I hate though, is the irresponsible spending from some of these teams.  Some of these contracts are ridiculous.  I understand how good Albert Pujols is.  I get it.  I do not understand how the Angels, or any team, can give a player who is going to be 32 years old by Spring Training a ten year contract.  No matter how good he may be over the first 5 or 6 years, what can they expect as a return for the last few years, especially from a player who has had a few nagging injuries accumulating over the last few seasons.  This doesn’t even touch upon the $254 million involved.  The market, which may have involved 5 teams, dictated this amount but that doesn’t make it any less silly.

It also sucks that mainly just two teams, the Marlins and Angels, have made most of the big splashes this winter.  It just shows how far apart the teams are in baseball.  The new CBA will hurt the small market teams, in my opinion, in the long run and it will make baseball have an even bigger competitive imbalance.

THE NBA WILL RESUME SOON

Does anyone really care?  That’s not fair.  The NBA has lots of fans.  Just don’t count me in their number.  In my opinion, the NBA is the worst evolution of the game of basketball.  The court and lane need to be larger and the rim should be higher.  The players are so much bigger than they were even 20 years ago and the bodies are too big for the space, leading to a brutal style of play I think is unwatchable.

I have an interesting fact.  Since 1980, only 9 teams have won the NBA championship, three of those only won once.  Six teams have won the other 28.  There is no balance in the NBA.  Many perennial losers have only themselves to blame for their woes because year after year they are lottery teams and year after year they draft players with potential and leave the proven and talented players to the already successful franchises.  It has been happening for decades now and it drives me crazy.  The young high schoolers and one-and-done college players that are big impact players are the exceptions, not the rule.  This league needs a huge make over and the new CBA isn’t the answer.  If one sport was in desperate need of contraction, it is the NBA.  I don’t know exactly which teams should go but there are too many teams.

THE QUARTERBACK PROBLEM

If every NFL team has three quarterbacks on its roster, this means there are 96 quarterbacks in the NFL.  If Peyton Manning ever returns, there are 4 elite qbs (Manning, Brady, Rogers, and Brees).  There are about 15 to 16 average or slightly above average qbs and another 12 to 16 or so below average or pedestrian field generals out there.  You do the math.  That leaves around 60 quarterbacks on rosters that really aren’t good enough to play in the NFL.  Yet the teams have little choice.  Quarterback is easily the shallowest position in football.  Now you understand why having a good to great quarterback is essential to continued success in the NFL.  There is no real solution because there just isn’t enough talent to fill the out the rosters.  Teams just have to hope their starters don’t get hurt and if they do, the back up doesn’t kill their chances of winning games.  Players like Tyler Palko and Caleb Hanie are forced into service and their teams have little or no chance of success.  This position, so important to teams’ success, just isn’t deep enough for every team to have one good quarterback, let alone 2 or 3.  Teams just have to get lucky and strike gold here. 

Thanks for reading my rants and letting me vent a little.

Check out my movie and tv review blog at jawsrecliner.blogspot.coma and get twitter updates @jawsrecliner

The DH and Interleague Play

I must warn everyone ahead of time.  This could really disintegrate into a petulant tirade.  There a few subjects I am very passionate about and this is one of them.  While I try to maintain somewhat of an open mind on most topics, this isn’t one of them.  Even if I disagree with the opinions of those on the opposite side of most discussions, I usually try to see the validity of their arguments.  I cannot for the life of me see any positives to the other side of this issue.  I will never be convinced otherwise.  Just to add to the craziness, I do understand there are those who disagree with me on this subject who are just as passionate and close minded about their own positions.

I loathe pitchers batting in the National League.  There, I said it.  I cannot see any positive aspect to pitchers grabbing a bat and futilely swinging away at the plate.  Pitchers do not bat at any level after high school – not college, not in the minors – except for in the National League.  It is an antiquated rule from an era long gone and it skews stats and equitable competition. 

Because of this gigantic difference in rules between the American League and the senior circuit, I also hate interleague play.  I find it less and less intriguing each season.  Other than when the Royals play the Cardinals each year, I cannot see where there is any positive aspect to teams from the two leagues playing with inequitable rules. 

From a statistical standpoint, pitchers batting are a complete waste of time.  Using stats from the 2011 season, designated hitters had 8,684 at bats and batted .263, had an on base percentage of .337, slugged .427, with an OPS of .764.  The pitchers’ slash line in 5,069 AB is .141/.175/.182/.357.  AL pitchers slash line is even worse - .119/.137/.162/.299.  DHs had 303 home runs and pitchers hit 28.  DHs struck out 140 times less than pitchers in 3,795 more at bats and walked 733 more times.  On the other hand, pitchers did win the sacrifice bunt battle 636 to 5.  Oh, how exciting!  AL hitters batting 9^th only sacrificed 161 times.

I think these stats clearly support my position.  I just don’t see the point.  Pitchers batting are worthless and boring.  People who actually like to watch this insomnia-inducing baseball always fall back on their lone arguments – it’s real baseball and it adds strategy.  My retort is equally intelligent – BALONEY!  Watching batters hit .141 is not real baseball and any idiot can make a double switch.  Maybe a tiny bit more of game management is needed but not so much that anyone who knows even a modicum about the sport couldn’t figure it out. 

This whole rant was set off because MLB may increase interleague play from 18 games to 30.  I wouldn’t care near as much if the leagues played by the same rules.  They use the same umpires; why not use the same rules?  Most AL teams use the DH as an integral part of their hitting line-up.  Most DHs hit in the middle of the line-ups.  To ask teams to play without, in some cases, one of their top two or three hitters is just asinine.  Blubbering defenders of the NL will come back with a point about players being complete and being able to play the field – BALONEY!  Most DHs can play the field but teams have younger or better fielding options at their positions.  TEAMS ARE BUILT THAT WAY.  They are playing by the rules.  Teams should never be asked to sit one of their best players.  AL teams are forced to sit one of their best hitters so a pitcher, many of whom haven’t hit since they were in high school, can step to the plate and hit a whopping .119 and an OPS under .300.  How is that fair or equitable?  No matter how anyone tries to defend it, argue it, twist it, or turn it, the answer is that it is not fair.  Period.

Now MLB, in all of their infinite wisdom, wants AL teams to play 9 percent of their games without their DHs.  Absolute nonsense!  The National League needs to get over itself and add the designated hitter.  If Major League Baseball wants to continue to push this brutal agenda of 30 interleagues games, then fine.  Have all the games played by the same rules.  And while we are one the topic of interleague play, MLB needs to realize that teams need to be playing divisional opponents in September, not teams from the opposite league.  This may be the absolute dumbest product of expanding interleague play.  Oh, how the Red Sox will howl the year when the Yankees get to finish up a season with the Pirates in Yankee Stadium with the divisional championship on the line with the winner not having to participate in a play-off play-in game.  Whoever thinks this is a good idea (I’m looking at you Bud Selig) is an idiot.  

I know I am not alone in my frustration and confusion with Major League Baseball on the topics of the DH and interleague play.  I know I am not the only person who seldom watches NL games because watching pitchers bat is like watching paint dry.  I know there are those who still refuse to give up on a dinosaur type of baseball and completely disagree with me.  All I can say to that is that you, and the National League, are wrong and you are only holding baseball back.  No other major sports have games where teams play each other under different set of rules than they normally play.  There is a reason for that – it is idiotic and nonsensical.  MLB, join the 21^st century and rid the world of pitchers trying to hit.  Do it for the good of baseball.

I would to thank www.baseball-reference.com for their statistical breakdown and information.

Read my movie and television reviews at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and get twitter updates @jawsrecliner

The Turner Gill Dilemma

What to do about Turner Gill?  This is the question Kansas Athletic Director Sheahon Zenger must answer very soon.  Before exiting the program, former AD Lew Perkins signed Gill to a 5-year contract and now Zenger is caught holding the bag.

I like Turner Gill and I bet he sounds really good in living rooms around the country.  I want him to be successful.  KU absolutely needs him to be successful.  Unfortunately, ranking 120^th out of 120^th in both yards allowed and points allowed is not being successful. 

I have always been a firm believer that college football coaches need at least four years to recruit and develop their own players.  That theory is being sorely tested right now.  KU runs the very realistic chance of just burying themselves in the position of permanent cellar dwellers in the conference for years to come.  KU cannot afford another Terry Allen, who was given ample time and opportunity to improve his teams but never could.  In this ever fluid world of shifting conference loyalties, KU cannot afford to be a nothing, an automatic win for opponents.  KU cannot afford its fans’ desertion in this crucial time where football generated income is essential to collegiate success. 

I would not like to be in Zenger’s shoes right now.  He has to decide whether or not to give Gill another year to show progress and to begin to turn things around.  Can KU afford to eat 3 years of contract and pay a new coach what it would take to get a guy good enough to turn things around?  Are there any coaches good enough and desperate to take this job?  That is a lot of very important questions.

As I watched KU’s defense roll over and play dead today against Texas A&M, I could see nothing on the defensive side of the ball that lead me to believe KU is even close to improving.  There looks to be one, maybe two, BCS level players on defense.  The defensive line has been absolutely invisible all season.  This puts incredible pressure on the linebackers and d-backs and those guys don’t look very talented themselves.  They can’t tackle (other than Steve Johnson) and they can’t cover.  I just can’t believe that a unit could be that bad. 

Even the special teams aren’t good.  KU has very little success returning any kind of kicks and their kickers are inconsistent and barely adequate.  Today, the long snapper sent the punter deep – in the wrong direction.

The offensive line couldn’t contain a rush from a pee-wee defense.  They can occasionally hold a block just long enough for a running back to gain two or three yards on the ground.  Quarterback Jordan Webb at times looks adequate enough but other times is completely in over his head.  Of course, it is hard to tell when the offensive line is so terrible

On the positive side, Gill has collected a bevy of young, talented running backs.  If these guys receive any blocking whatsoever, they make things happen.  They are quick, fast, and courageous.  We can see though, that it is not nearly enough to be successful. 

So, we are back to that original question – what to do about Turner Gill?  Could Zenger find anyone worth anything to take over this program if he decided to can Gill?  Whereas KU could pick and choose its basketball coach, what is there here for a football coach?  It seems like much longer than four years since KU was a BCS bowl winning team.  How did KU not take advantage of that incredible season?  Those are the seasons that help programs become better programs.  Here we are, four years later, maybe the worst team in division one.

Gill has to shoulder the blame.  This team has shown no improvement.  None.  I think KU is even worse this year than last.  I was bummed when I heard KU was on TV today.  I didn’t want anyone to see just how bad KU is right now.  I watched of course, but I was embarrassed and disgusted for my team.

If I saw any indication that this team would be better next season, I would retain Gill but this team has flat lined.  It is brutal.  Zenger has to come up with the money to oust Turner and find someone new.  It has to be done soon - the sooner the better.  I’m talking next Saturday night as soon as the (final) Missouri game is over.  I don’t think Zenger can afford to wait.  He has to convince boosters to come up with money to hire a new head coach.  He will have his work cut for him to find a new coach.  I don’t know who would want this job.  That may be the one single factor that might deter him, if money is not a factor.  Would any coach with any skill or reputation take this job?  To be honest, I don’t know if that guy is out there.  After today though, KU can’t afford another year of Turner Gill at the helm.

Did I mention I am glad I am not Sheahon Zenger?

Read my movie and television reviews at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and get twitter updates @jawsrecliner

Free Agency and Small Markets

I haven’t posted many articles lately as I have been kicking around a few topics in my head.  One that keeps popping up is my frustration at the state of affairs in Major League Baseball.  As the powers that be try to hammer out a new labor agreement and as the hot stove season slowly simmers, I thought I would try to spill some of my thoughts here.

As a fan of a small market team, I always feel my team never has much of a chance to make any kind of splash in free agency.  The Royals just simply cannot compete with other teams in getting big name stars to come to Kansas City.  Part of the reason is the fact that the Royals have not been successful for two decades.  What star wants to come and play for a perennial loser?  It is also a fact that year in and year out, the Royals just can’t afford to compete with the big boys financially.  I have no doubt ownership could have laid out cash for one big name, if they could find anyone interested, but it would be very difficult to be able to afford enough good players to compete for championships on a regular basis.

It is also true the Royals were very frugal in the late 1990’s and for most of the last decade.  They developed some star players but made little true effort to sign players like Johnny Damon and Carlos Beltran.  They did sign one talented player long term – Mike Sweeney.  Sweeney was a heck of a hitter and gave it his all but he was the least durable of the star players at the turn of the century for the Royals and he spent many weeks on the DL. 

That all aside, even in this off season where it appears the perennial big spenders – Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies – won’t be chasing the top free agents, teams like the Royals still can’t compete in the hot stove season.  For teams with a little money lying around, this would be a perfect opportunity to grab a big name player or two long term while the big boys are sitting one out.  Miami certainly appears to making an effort to fill their new stadium for the 2012 season and beyond.  It is very hard for me to take the Marlins seriously though.  Twice they have loaded up and won a World Series, just to sell the star players off as soon as they could following their big triumphs.  What happens if the Marlins should land Pujols, Reyes, and Buehrle?  What if they challenge for, and maybe even win, the World Series in the next couple of years.  What if they win and the crowds still don’t come out and fill their new stadium?  The Rays had some very successful season recently but fans still haven’t embraced them.  It has happened in Miami in the past.  If Miami wins a World Series, will they just sell off their pieces again when the fans don’t show consistently? 

This business model is a not a solid one and it is one that ticks me off.  It is why I can’t take the Marlins seriously.  We all know, though, that it only takes one or two idiot general managers with more cash than sense to drive up a contract to silly proportions and just ruin the market.  Spending money is not a guarantee for success.  Yes, it helps, but championships are not sure things. 

While it is very frustrating because I have been waiting for twenty-five years, I can’t blame the Royals for their present course of trying to build from within.  I can’t say I believe in these giant contracts for players already in their thirties.  The steroid era is over; I don’t see many players producing the big numbers into their late thirties and early forties as has been the case over the past twenty years.  I firmly believe contracts longer than five years are mistakes.  I just don’t many see them paying off for all of those years.  Sure, occasionally there might be one or two where the players do earn the wage for the length of their deals.  I just don’t want my team taking those chances on players in their thirties. 

I like that the Royals are trying to build from within.  It just seems to be a long and never ending process.  I want my team to win now and to win for a long time.  With such a wide range of team salaries though, I just don’t see how all of the smaller market teams can compete year in and year out over a long period time.  I admire the job the Twins did competing for nearly a decade on a regular basis.  They are the exception.  The Rays are the exception.  Now, I have to hope the Royals are the exception. 

I read a musing by one of BaseballHQ.com’s forum guys today about the intelligence of back loaded contracts.  He made a very good point about it making more sense to have the contracts front loaded instead.  Isn’t it probable that a player is more likely to be a better player earlier in the contract?  Isn’t it probable a player approaching 40 years old at the end of a long contract is going to produce less than he did at 32?  If teams would front load contracts, they would be paying a player for his more likely production early in the contract.  It would also be easier to trade an aging player without eating a big chunk of the contract.  In my opinion, this is a much more sound and reasonable system than the one most general managers and agents use now.  That, of course, is why we will probably never see it used.

I also wish baseball could iron out the financial inequities.  Baseball is a different creature than the other major sports because most teams have their own television and radio deals so they can air games on a daily basis.  The bigger market teams are going to make more money that the smaller markets.  That is a fact.  The only sensible way to fix this is to have a ceiling and a floor.  In baseball, there is no other way to close the gap in revenues.  Unfortunately, the players’ union will never allow it and so we, as fans, just have to take the consequences.

Read tv and movie reviews at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and get twitter updates @jawsrecliner 

Big XII Basketball Preview

I have had a heck of a time writing this particular posting.  When I first started thinking about it, I didn’t think it would be this hard.  As I did more research and gathered more information, it became clear to me that there isn’t a tremendous difference in talent from team to team throughout the ten Big XII teams for the 2011-2012 basketball season.  It is a league loaded with incredible coaches with proven track records and all will lead teams that put forth effort and heart every single game.  The new schedule format will be tougher than every before.  The two historically worst basketball programs are gone (Nebraska and Colorado) and all teams play each other twice.  It will be a brutal road and this league may very well just beat itself up.

The more I looked at things, the more uncomfortable I became with trying to rank these teams.  I did it but by no means am I confidant in that I will even be close to being correct five months from now.  I rank the teams from bottom to top and try to give my reasoning in a sentence or two for each team.  Here goes…

10. Texas Tech.  Coach Billy Gillespie has rebuilt a Big XII program before but his work is cut out for him.  Tech is the only team I feel remotely comfortable about with this ranking.  There simply isn’t very much talent on this roster.  It will be a rough road for the Red Raiders.

9. Oklahoma.  Veteran coach Lon Kruger returns to the Midwest as a Sooner.  He inherits a team without a lot of big names.  Although only one major contributor from last season was lost, there are few top notch players.  Kruger has added to a couple of transfers to help improve this teams tepid rebounding.  Kruger has his work cut out for him.

8. Kansas State.  I am not why K-State has been ranked as high as they have been in some of the pre-season polls.  While they have the talent and the coaching to compete for a league title, most of their players are unproven as stars or leaders.  I think Coach Frank Martin may struggle to get this squad to meet his high standards.

7. Oklahoma State.  Tough overachievers like Keiton Page and Jean-Paul Olukemi offer Coach Travis Ford a good solid scoring base.  Add in one of the top recruits in the nation and I think the Cowboys have a great chance to surprise in this conference.  Ford’s teams are gutsy and scrappy and never end up easy prey for anyone.

6. Iowa State.  This is a gut pick for me.  Hometown hero, coach Fred Hoiberg is going to rely on a bevy of Division I transfers so fill key roster spots.  While not loaded with many returning stars, the Cyclones will challenge with those transfers.  I especially like Royce White’s chances at being a very successful player in a conference short on dominant low post players.  Look out for this team.

5. Texas.  It isn’t getting easier.  Texas never finishes this low so I’m not sure why I have Rick Barnes’ squad here.  It just worked out that way.  Just like every other team, the Longhorns have as many questions marks as they have answers.  J’Covan Brown seems to have a great game every time I watch them and he is only a junior.  I think a couple of freshmen will play key roles this season and the Longhorns’ success may come down to how quickly those youngsters get acclimated.

4. Texas A&M.  I originally had the Aggies slightly higher but I dropped them a couple of places due to new coach Billy Kennedy’s health questions.  I wonder how the team will adjust to a new system plus the uncertainty of who is manning the bench from game to game, if that becomes an issue.  I think the Aggies may have one of the best players in the Big XII in Khris Middleton and if he continues to improve, he may be able to lead his team to first.

3. Missouri.  I really think the Tigers have the talent and experience to win the conference championship.  I am not convinced Frank Haith is the guy to lead them there.  A shadow hangs over Haith and the Tigers because of things that happened at Haith’s former school and I don’t how that will affect Missouri.  Marcus Denman and Phil Pressey have a chance to be very special and they are exciting players.  This team will really get after it and maybe they will win their only Big XII round ball title.

2. Baylor.  Coach Drew has the most returning firepower in the league.  The roster is loaded with experienced, talented players.  I have always believed that defense has held the Bears back in the past.  If Baylor can tighten things up on the defensive end of the court, they will be very tough to beat because they are so talented offensively.  This team will score a lot of points and may very well finish at the top come March.

1. Kansas.  It is with much trepidation that I pick Kansas to finish first.  To be honest, it is only because after seven years, somebody has to knock them off.  It would crazy to pick anyone else.  That being said, if the field is going to knock the Jayhawks off the mountain, this will be the year.  Their front court is paper thin, even with pre-season All-American Thomas Robinson manning the post.  He will probably see a lot of double teams until someone else can step up to relieve the pressure.  Because of NCAA rulings (to me, the shadowy “partial qualifier”) for three incoming freshmen not being able to play this season, the Jayhawks are also very shallow along the bench.  Coach Bill Self will certainly have to display his finest coaching yet for the Jayhawks to repeat once again.

One thing I did not figure in because it is a huge unknown.  I don’t know how other schools will react to A&M and Missouri.  These departing programs will probably receive harsher treatment than normal when on the road.  There is no way to predict if this will spur them on or beat them down.

Whew.  That was not easy.  Again, I hold little confidence these rankings will hold up.  I see as many as 9 schools with the talent to finish in the top 4 if things go their way over an extended period of games.  Many teams are only an injury away from being buried.  While this is true every year, I think it is even more so this season.  No matter what, it should be an exciting and unpredictable season.

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