Royals Pull Trigger for Shields

I had a big Chiefs’ piece ready to go this morning but I woke up to find Royals’ news tearing up the world wide web and the radio airwaves.  After quivering in the bushes for weeks, afraid to make a big move, General Manager Dayton Moore finally went for it.  The Royals traded 4 minor leaguers to Tampa for  “Big Game” James Shields and Wade Davis.  Of course, two of the minor leagues were top prospect Wil Myers and the Royals’ top pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi.   This is where the argument comes in.

Kansas City just traded six plus years of control of a guy that hit 37 home runs in the minors in 2012 AND their top minor league pitcher with 6 years of control for two years of James Shields (committing $25 million) and five years of Wade Davis.  For an organization starved for future stars, that will be a bitter pill to swallow.  I get it.  I did not want the Royals to trade Wil Myers.  I am not sure adding Shields and Davis will win more games than having Franceour still in right field every day.  If Myers turns into a star and the Royals do not make the playoffs in the next two years, this trade will have been a disaster – in hindsight.  It is not a disaster right this minute.  

Wil Myers has a chance to be a superstar.  Few argue that point but we don’t know that for sure.  Phil Hyatt once hit 44 home runs in the minors for the Royals.  Phil Who Now?  Exactly.  With prospects, you just don’t know.  Not every prospect is Mike Trout.  Even if Myers turns into a star, the odds are against him contributing in a major way in his first two years.  BaseballHQ.com did a great 4-part series on the MLB success of players who made the top 100 prospect lists at some point.  To summarize, the rate wasn’t good.  That doesn’t mean Myers is going to fail; top 10 prospects fair better than those outside the top 10.  My guess he will be at least an above average MLB player, and possibly better than that but maybe not until year three.  That is pure speculation on my part.  Odorizzi has question marks, too.  He struggled in AAA to pitch deep into games and that would be a big problem at the major league level.  The Royals already have plenty of pitchers in that mold.  At the very least, Davis is on the same talent level as Odorizzi but much farther along in his development.  Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard were throw-ins here and while I don’t know much about the latter other than he is a power hitting third baseman nowhere near ready for the majors, the former is obviously in need of a scenery change.  I wish them good luck in their new organization.  

James Shields is the type of pitcher the Royals desperately need - a staff anchor who takes the ball every five days and pitches a lot of innings at a good level.   BaseballHQ.com took statistical data and came up with a list of staff anchors for the 2013 season, based on performances over the past two years.  Only 8 pitchers met their criteria.  One of them was James Shields.  A guy like Shields, in addition to Guthrie and Santana, should take the pressure off the bullpen.  The bullpen has been great but just how long can it succeed working as hard as it has the last two seasons?  This team is much stronger today than it was yesterday.  Wade Davis could be very important because he is probably better than Chen, Mendoza, and Hochevar and should move right into the number four slot.  Now all those #5 pitchers will be slotted where they belong.  Now maybe Moore can trade one of those guys for some outfield help (don’t expect much in return, though).  This also relieves any pressure there might be to rush Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino back too quickly.  These two important guys will have time to build up to their full strength and if things play out right, maybe they are ready to contribute to meaningful games in September and October (I’ve always been the optimist).

I know we all love the possibility of Wil Myers.  I know I do.  The fans of this team want heroes and Myers looks like he could have been a big one but this team is loaded with possible contenders.  Billy Butler can still hit.  Alex Gordon is still an above average, under appreciated player.  Hosmer and Moustakus are still very young, developing players.  Escobar and Perez are still among the best at their positions.  If these young players don’t improve and take the next step forward, it won’t matter how good James Shields, or how good Wil Myers may be.  If there isn’t an improvement in the hitting among the youngsters, the Royals are not going to compete anyway.  Now, if these guys all do take that step forward, I like the Royals’ chances with James Shields on the mound.  

Shields comes with risks (he throws a lot of innings and has shown inconsistency in the past) but there isn’t a pitcher out there who doesn’t come with a fair share baggage and risk.  There is always a chance something goes wrong (Kansas City has had more than its share of bad luck over the decades) but I am going to be positive and look at the fact the Royals got a top of the rotation arm and a solid number 4 starter with upside.

Let’s dream a little here.  What if the Royals’ young guys take big steps toward reaching their potential?  What if Guthrie pitches like he did with KC last year?  What if Santana throws up numbers like 2011?  What if Shields has opportunities to earn his nickname in powder blue?  This is a lot of “what ifs” but I am going to choose to be optimistic and positive going into 2013.  I love the feeling of hope going into each Spring Training.

I wrote just a few days ago that Dayton Moore wasn’t getting anything done and I put owner David Glass’ feet to the fire about pinching pennies.  It would be terribly hypocritical of me to berate them for going out and getting a couple of good starting pitchers, including a top of the rotation guy, for a bunch of minor leaguers.  You have to give up something to get something.  Royals made the move they needed to make and now have a chance to compete in the AL Central.  Maybe the Royals become that small market team in 2013 that challenges for the division title like Oakland and Baltimore last year.  Maybe now it is our time.

Moore and Glass are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.  Fans are just not going to be happy.  Well, this fan is much happier today than he was four days ago; I can assure you of that.  They pulled the trigger and only time will tell if it will work successfully.  Only in hindsight will we be able to judge the success of this move but this morning, I am glad to be a Royals’ fan.

Be sure to watch ESPN’s 30 for 30 “You Don’t Know Bo”.  It is outstanding.

Check out my movie and television reviews at jawsrecliner.com and get twitter updates for my blogs @jawsrecliner.  Thanks for reading. 

An Empty Glass

I was all prepared to write up an article about how the Kansas City Royals made out at the MLB Winter Meetings in Nashville this week.  I was ready to praise Dayton Moore for pulling off exactly the right move and I was equally prepared to blast the sometimes panicky General Manager for giving up too much for too little.  This article is going to unfold much differently than I had planned.

Let me start off with saying it was really nice to actually be in the discussions during the Hot Stove season.  Year after year, I watch the pinnacle of the Hot Stove season with interest only as a fan in general.  The Royals seldom participate in this annual extravaganza in any tangible manner.   Not so this year as rumor after rumor shot through the world wide web, keeping me checking my twitter page for days.  The rumor mill had been churning out possibilities for weeks leading up to the Winter Meetings and everyone knew the Royals were ready to make a big splash.  MLB Network and ESPN talking heads were all reporting that Kansas City was going to be a big player during these Winter Meetings because of their dearth of starting pitching and their perceived plethora of young bats, including the top hitting prospect in all of baseball.  

The biggest fear for me was that General Manager Dayton Moore would trade a key piece of a below average offense to fill a spot in a horrible rotation.  Worse, that he would trade a guy who could possibly hit 30+ homeruns for several years for the services of a good pitcher for just two years.  I am not saying there isn’t a situation where that might not be a good thing but it has to be the right deal.  I am tired of the Royals always promising they will be better next year.  I want them to win this year.  When is the vaunted Process going to pay dividends?

As it turned out, all those exciting rumors amounted to nothing.  Whispers in the wind, if you will.  Despite reassurances from all the talking heads, the Royals talked a big game but, as usual, didn’t deliver.  They didn’t even add anyone via the Rule 5 draft.  The Winter Meetings as a whole turned out rather uneventful, for the Royals specifically and most teams in general, other than maybe the Giants and Red Sox.

So yesterday, the post meeting hangover set in.  Dayton Moore was flying home and it didn’t look like there was going to be any excitement.  Then – BANG.  Bob Dutton from the Kansas City Star dropped a bomb on all of us die hard Royals’ fans.  A few weeks ago, Royals’ owner David Glass talked to certain media members and declared that basically the Royals can’t be profitable if their payroll is over $70 million dollars a year and that he had subsidized MLB payroll out of his own pocket several times over the years.  Every person who could type and post on the internet, some of them very respected baseball people, disclaimed this statement as a blatant falsehood.  Even Forbes magazine provided numbers much differently.

Instead of a soft cap of $70 million to work with, the Royals, according to Dutton’s article yesterday afternoon, provided by Royals’ officials, the Royals’ breakeven point was closer to $60 million because the $70 million included the 40-man roster, draft signings, and international signings, and that Kansas City was already over budget for its payroll for 2013.  Twitter blew up.  Radios exploded.  There was cyber chaos everywhere in the Kansas City Metro area.  David Glass, whom many already believed was lying before, now jumped up into Richard M. Nixon and Pinocchio levels in the pantheon of liars.  No one I read or listened to believed these numbers were anywhere near accurate.

Then the “Oops, my bad.”  Dutton retracted his article.  Some Royals official had given him the wrong data or something.  Whatever, but the number is still supposedly $70 million for the 35-man roster.  While everyone has recovered and calmed down, no one is buying that figure either.  Glass and other club officials claim he has not pocketed a dime from the Royals.  Forbes reported otherwise, claiming Glass has reaped profit to the tune of approximately $100 million since 2000.  That is a big disparity.  Let’s not forget that Glass bought the Royals for less than $100 million and it is now valued, according to Forbes, at more than $350 million.  I dare say, Mr. Glass, that is a tidy profit. 

With all the money that is pouring into the coffers via television contracts, which will increase dramatically in 2014, and other league generated shared revenues, plus the increased revenue from rising attendance, I can see no reason the Royals can’t have a payroll of around $90 million this year and $110 million in 2014.  Guys a lot smarter than I (check out ranyontheroyals.com for a very good financial breakdown for the Royals) have done the math and I can see nothing to dispute their numbers.  It is time, Mr. Glass, to piss or get the hell off the pot.  Help us field a winning team or sell it and take your quarter of a billion dollar profit and return to Arkansas.  

I wish there was a way we could see exactly what the numbers are.  I wish the teams that are playing in county or state funded stadiums had to provide financial statements to the public.  There needs to be a show of good faith.  Right now, there is no faith in David Glass as owner of the Kansas City Royals.  Few people believe his statements about the financial situation.  We as fans are tired of the constant losing and penny pinching.  Either loosen the purse strings or you may witness an empty, cavernous stadium this summer.  Well, you won’t witness it.  You’ll be safely tucked away in Arkansas or in your bigger-than-Rhode Island compound in Wyoming or Montana or wherever the heck it is, counting your money like King Midas.

Glass has never had an accurate reading of the pulse of the KC fans and he better have a thick skin if he doesn’t provide extra dollars this off season.  It is getting harder and harder to be a Royals fan.  I am tired of the heart break.  I love baseball and I love the Royals but I am close to giving up.  It’s up to you, Mr. Glass.  At least show us some effort.  I am begging you.

Check out my list of all-time favorite TV dramas at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and thanks for reading.

Jeremy Guthrie vs. the Stat Geeks

I use the term “stat geek” in only the most complimentary manner possible.  I am a stat geek.  I have been for years.  I was the kid who minded the stats books for the girls’ games before my games in junior high and high school.  I kept stats on my own video games.  I studied the back of baseball and football cards until I knew all the numbers.  When fantasy baseball rose to prominence in the 1980s, I was one of the first in line and I have been hooked ever since.

I love all the stats like the hard stats like home runs, stolen bases, RBI, etc.  I like the peripheral stats like on-base percentage, slugging percentage etc.  I like the trending skill stats like ground ball rate, contact rate, strikeouts per 9 innings, K/BB, batting average on ball in play, etc.  I even love algebraic stats like wins above replacement and runs above replacement.  So much of baseball – real and fantasy – is based on the projecting of stats through scientific and mathematical analysis.  We try to predict hard stats much more scientifically than we used to be analyzing players’ trending skills.  For example, if a hitter bats .320 for a season and he enjoyed an average of .360 on balls in play (batted balls in between the lines), we can predict with confidence that his batting average will drop the next year.  Throughout baseball history, the average on balls put in play is right around .300.  If our batter hit .360, we know he enjoyed extreme luck on batted balls.  The odds are very good that luck at that level will not continue for a second season, therefore his batting average will most likely drop.  The point is I love all of these stats and I use them all the time to analyze players.  Sometimes, though, the numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Now we come to the part of this post that I have rewritten three times this morning.  I keep falling into a deep explanation of stats and what separates similarly skilled players from one another.  That is not what I intended when I started this piece.  I decided to write this because I am ticked off at the reaction of all the stat geeks out there to the Royals signing Jeremy Guthrie, and also to their reaction to the Royals trading for Ervin Santana a couple of weeks ago.  There are several stat guys and bloggers out there that I have read and respected for years.  I still do but I have gotten very frustrated with them over the past few weeks.

I am not going to list all of the bloggers and their sites.  Let’s just say these are some very smart, very passionate guys.  Most are Royals fans but a couple others are just stat geeks.  Some are baseball guys – you know the talking heads on television.  Almost to a man these guys are ripping the Royals for the money they have committed to Santana and Guthrie.  Their point is the Royals could have spent their allotted free agent money more wisely.  My question to all of these guys is how?

Kansas City will pay Santana $11 million in 2013 (it’s 12 actually but they received a million form the Angels) and they will pay $5 million to Guthrie this season, $11 million in 2014, $9 million in 2015.  They have committed $36 million to receive 4 seasons of services (overlap in 2013).  I read a comment from one former GM, ragging on the Royals for paying $16 million to those two newly acquired pitchers.  He asked why they didn’t spend that money on Greinke or Anibal Sanchez.  This was an utterly stupid comment.  Neither of those pitchers, the best two options on the free agent market, are going to sign 1-year $16 million dollar deal with the Royals, or anyone else for that matter.  They are not going to sign a 2-year deal for $32 million deal either.  It would not surprise me if Greinke signs a 6-year, $120 million contract and I’m expecting at least 6 years and $90 million for Sanchez.  The Royals flat out can’t afford those contracts for that amount of years.

The next level of free agents is Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, and Kyle Lohse.  All of these three have their warts and are probably better than the two pitchers Kansas City added.  They are all probably going to command much bigger deals than what KC handed out.  There is still a chance the Royals can sign one of these guys but it is an outside chance because with such a limited market, these guys are probably going to be way over priced, more so than Guthrie.

Last night I got into a polite on-line argument with a stat guy about the length of Guthrie’s contract.  Another baseball guy, Rany Jazayerli, liked the signing but hates the third year so much he is not willing to endorse the signing.  I understand the argument but my stand was there was probably little chance the Royals sign him without that third year.  The debaters against the signing all point to that third year, saying you don’t give a 36-year old pitcher with pretty pedestrian numbers $9 million.  The contract averages $8.3 million a year.  That is not out of line with a pitcher of his caliber.  If Sanchez signs that 6-year, $90 million deal, will he be worth $15 million at the age of 34?  Will he provide more than 3 and a half times the value over the course of his contract than Guthrie will provide over the duration of his contract?  I sincerely doubt it very much. 

Another point is that premium free agents, especially top of the rotation pitchers are not going to sign in Kansas City, for any reasonable amount.  This is sad and it sucks but it is the absolutely the truth.  People can hide behind their keyboards and pontificate all they want about how terrible Dayton Moore is (and he has earned much of their scorn in all honesty) and how he should be spending money on the Greinkes and Sanchezes of the world.  That doesn’t change the fact they aren’t going to sign here.  I would love to be proved wrong but it will never happen at this point.  Until the Royals can improve their record and challenge for divisional titles, the Royals and Dayton Moore are going to have to slightly overpay for fringe free agents who only marginally improve the team.  That is a fact of life.  It is reality.  Quit begging the general manager to improve the team then bashing him when he does.  How about finding ways to be positive instead of filling your pages with negativity?  How maybe throwing some support behind your team?

Of course, I know the answers to those questions.  Whenever Moore has made a move with the major league roster, more often than not, it has ended in disaster.  We have to live with Moore’s bad judgments in signing Jeff Franceour and Bruce Chen to 2 year extensions for too much money.  We have to live with Moore trading anyone for Jonathon Sanchez.  We have to live with Moore signing terrible players like Yuniesky Betancourt.  Those types of moves do not translate into confidence when Moore signs a guy like Guthrie for 3 years.

I want to take a moment to examine Jeremy Guthrie.  If you throw out the very small sample size of Guthrie’s starts in Coors Field, his stats last year were right in line with his career numbers.  Many a pitcher has fallen apart in Coors Field.  Guthrie wasn’t the first and he won’t be the last.  I think we can safely toss out those three plus months in the Mile High City.  Guthrie has been consistent and durable, if not spectacular or flashy, throughout his career. The Royals desperately need a starter who can throw into the seventh on a regular basis.  One national talking head baseball guy has gone on the record that other GMs around the league think the Royals’ deal with Guthrie is a fair one because of his stamina and durability.  Rany Jazayerli does a great breakdown on Guthrie and comparable pitchers and their contracts at ranyontheroyals.com.

One stat guy told me last night he thought the Royals should tap into their deep reserves of minors to acquire pitching.  I agree and I hope this is still being pursued by the Royals’ front office.  Many people think KC should give up one of their young hitters but I think it is counterproductive to trade key offensive pieces on the major league level to acquire pitching.  What good is that pitcher if they can’t score runs for him?  The Royals do have a deep minor league system and I hope some of that talent can be moved to improve the big league roster.

Two years from now, I may be bemoaning the fact the Moore was an idiot and the Royals are paying a broken down, awful pitcher $9 million instead of having money freed up to sign a stud.  Feel free to remind me of this tirade then.  At this point, under the circumstances, Moore has added two arms better than what they had before.  I believe the market on free agent pitching is about to quickly explode and the Royals may end up with a couple of bargains.  Hopefully they will get the performances they are hoping for.  It seems the Murphy’s Law rules at Kaufman.  Eventually, there has to be a turning point for this organization.  Let’s hope it is 2013 and let’s try being less negative and more realistic.

Thanks for reading and have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving Day and weekend.

Kansas City Fool's Gold

When have we seen enough?  How many times can a pitcher utterly fail?  How many times will a team run a guy out and leave your team with little chance of winning?  I guess if you run a small market baseball team and drafted a guy first overall, the answer is indefinitely.

Luke Hochevar has over 600 career innings and over 100 career starts.  Not counting 4 appearances in 2007, Hochevar is in his fifth full season.  His lowest ERA is 4.68 and only once has his WHIP been below 1.427.  Because of a nice second half last season, he had a career low WHIP of 1.283.  It turned out to be fool’s gold.

He looked to have finally turned a corner last season.  In the second half, he turned in a respectable 3.52 ERA, 1.134 WHIP, and 7.7 K/9ip.  Expectations were high in 2012 for the former number one overall draft pick.  Fantasy experts were listing him as a big sleeper and the Royals were looking for him to prove that their infinite patience in him was justified.  Many, including myself, really thought maybe the light bulb had finally clicked on.  Unfortunately, it had not.

In six starts, Hochevar has only thrown 28 innings and is supporting a downright ugly 9.00 ERA.  In the past, he has shown a penchant for looking brilliant for 3, 4 , sometimes 5 innings then he just loses it completely, allowing fists full of runs.  This year, those innings have been early in the game, crippling the bullpen.  He hasn’t been walking an inordinate number of batters but has been getting hammered.  He has allowed 39 hits in 28 innings.  He is pounding the middle of the strike zone, never an ideal place to be against major league batters.  Check out this graph of his pitch location from texasleaguers.com.

Note the cluster of strikes in what is the general wheelhouse of most big leagues.  Throwing strikes is great but you can’t just throw it down the middle.  If a guy hasn’t learned this little tidbit after 600 innings, I doubt he will ever will.

So, what should the Royals do with this albatross?  Kansas City suffers from a horrible lack of even mediocre depth in their rotation.  Now, with Jonathan Sanchez (another apparent mistake and another article all together) on the DL, it appears the Royals won’t be able to do anything with Hochevar until Sanchez returns, and even then it is doubtful KC can come up with another starter.  Fourteen months ago, the Royals had 5 top pitching prospects but only Danny Duffy has really started to pitch to his potential.  There is no immediate help in the minors.  I would suggest that as soon as Sanchez comes back, they should send Aaron Crow to AAA and begin to stretch him out a bit.  Let him rejoin the club when he as built up some stamina and push Hochevar to the pen.  Hochevar has shown superlative stuff in the past, albeit in small doses.  He wouldn’t be the first pitcher ever to go to the bullpen and discover how to pitch.  Maybe he can learn to at least be a decent contributor to the team.

Who knows if the Royals will do anything in the near future.  Maybe Hochevar can turn it around in his next few starts.  Again, anyone, including Dayton Moore, who believes that will happen, is just fooling himself.  I don’t think I would ever trust him to be a reliable cog for my team again.  Considering the Royals ran Kyle Davies out to the mound for several years doesn’t lead me to believe they will do anything with Hochevar either.  If nothing else, the Royals have proved to be slow learners themselves. 

My thanks to baseball-reference.com and texasleaguers.com for their stats and pitch data.

Signings for the Future

The Royals’ General Manage Dayton Moore seems to be taking a page out of John Hart’s General Managing handbook.  Hart, of course, was the GM for the Cleveland Indians in the 1990’s.  Hart found himself loaded with a stable of young stud players such as Kenny Lofton, Carlos Baerga, Jim Thome, Omar Vizuel, and Albert Belle, just to name a few.  Hart aggressively signed his young players to early, long term contracts, locking them up and buying out their arbitration years.  The Indians were very successful and these players made the Indians an AL powerhouse in the 90’s.

Dayton Moore has spent much of this spring locking up some of his younger players to long term contracts.  Moore started off by signing 21-year old catching phenom Salavador Perez to a club friendly, 5 years, $7 million deal, plus club options for 3 more years and up to nearly $20 million more.  The Royals are forecasting Perez to be an above average MLB catcher and were willing to buy out his arbitration years at slightly below market value.  If Perez proves to be a catching stud muffin, the Royals will be able to lock him up for 3 more years at below market value.  Of course, Perez promptly went down with a torn meniscus, which will set back his development 3 months.  Still, Moore’s thinking was sound.

Next, the Royals bought shortstop Alcides Escobar out of his arbitration years with a 4-year, $10 million signing.  In addition, the Royals hold two options years for an extra combined $11.75 million.  Escobar may never be a great hitter but he is so incredible with his glove.  The Royals have NEVER had a shortstop with the defensive skills of Escobar.  I love watching this dude with the leather.  He makes the routine plays and he makes the fantastic plays.  His range is terrific in every direction and he has a rocket launcher for an arm.  It wouldn’t surprise me if Escobar eventually develops into a guy who can consistently hit around .275 with 10-12 home runs.  He has the speed to swipe 25-30 bases a year as well.  Make no mistake though; this contract for his defense.  The Royals again guaranteed long term money in exchange for locking up a top notch defensive player through the arbitration years and if Escobar can improve his overall hitting, Kansas City will have a terrific shortstop below market value through 2017.

This last week, Moore finally locked down Alex Gordon.  Gordon was drafted second overall in 2005 and was immediately (unfairly) crowned the savior of the organization.  After ripping through minor league pitching, Alex Gordon struggled in the majors with both poor performances and injuries.  At times, he looked like a colossal bust.  In 2011, he finally broke out, hitting .303 with 23 homers and 87 RBI and winning a Gold Glove in left field.  Gordon finally showed the talent that made him a top two draft pick.  Moore signed Gordon to a 4-year, $37.5 million deal, with a player option for a 5^th year for an additional $12.5 million.  This signing was as much of a public relations coup as anything else.  Fans wanted Alex Gordon signed long term.  The Royals went out on a limb with Gordon because he has only had one very good year.  Now he is locked up for 4 years. If he performs as he did in 2011, this contract pays Gordon fair market value.  If Gordon falters, Moore and the Royals may regret this deal.

What is important to the long suffering fans of the Royals, who have watched the team ship off their best players year after year with poor returns, is that Kansas City is putting forth the effort and money to lock these players up long term.  Another star, Billy Butler, was extended in 2011 and he is locked up through 2014, with a club option for 2015.  Young stars like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakus have just finished their rookie seasons and are under team control for 5 years.  Dayton Moore has a core set of players he can build upon.  By signing these longer contracts, he is trying to fray the costs down the road.  It will be difficult for Kansas City to ever have a $100 million payroll, so taking a few chances on some players now can only be a good thing.  Even if some of these players do not pan out completely, these contracts are not going to be crippling.  The Royals want to try to keep some long term cash in reserve in case Hosmer and Moustakus turn into the players the organization hope they can.  I am sure Moore is making an effort to lock up Hosmer as well, but signing a guy of that caliber of talent will not be easy. 

It is a delicate balance for small markets teams to lock up cash for long periods of time and to be competitive.  Teams like the Royals have a hard time convincing stars to sign with their team and coming up with enough money.  Small market teams have to develop their own players and find a way to keep them long term.  Two decades ago, John Hart made up the blueprints; Dayton Moore is trying to copy his results.  Hopefully, he can add a World Series Championship that eluded Hart and the Indians.

Read movie and tv reviews at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and check posts on the Royals at bigbrotherbaseballproject.blogspot.com.  Get twitter updates @jawsrecliner

KC's Eternally Springing Hope

At one point, the Kansas City Royals was baseball’s model expansion franchise.  They won their first division title in their eighth year in 1976.  From 1976-1981, the Royals won 5 divisional titles in six years (in the strike split 1981 season, KC won one half of the season and the A’s won the other half – the A’s won a divisional playoff series).  The Royals played in their first World Series in 1980, their 12^th season, and won in 1985.  From 1976-1985, Kansas City was one of the winningest teams in baseball.

There is a perception that the Royals have been terrible since 1985.  That’s not quite true.  From 1986-1994, Kansas City finished over .500 in 6 of those nine seasons, never winning fewer than 72 games.  Since 1995 however, the Royals have been one of the worst franchises in baseball, only finishing above .500 one time (2003).  This time period coincides directly with the time frame in which the Glass family took over the franchise.  They have treated it like their own personal giant, box, discount, retail outlet.  They throw a shoddy product out for consumption and laugh all the way to the bank.  I will never be convinced the Glass family has ever lost so much as a penny on the Kansas City Royals.

In 2006, the Glasses finally did something right.  They hired the hot commodity general manager candidate, Dayton Moore.  Moore was a childhood Royals fan and cut his teeth in the Braves organization.  Moore took the job with the caveat that he would get extended funds to correctly develop and build success from within.  The Royals increased the scouting development and budget and expanded their almost non-existent presence in Latin America.  Money was freed up for draft picks.  The foundation was finally being laid. 

It has been a painful process because, as the minor leagues have set a strong foundation, the structure at the top has been a flimsy, straw shack.  As successful as Moore has been in building up the minor league system, the product he has fielded on the major league level has not been good.  He tried to get things done by bringing in Gil Meche (who was a good signing until Trey Hillman destroyed his arm) and he brought in the only run producer Moore could convince (bribe) to sign in KC, Jose Guillen.  Guillen actually produced some much needed power in his 2-plus seasons but he carried so much baggage, it was hardly noticeable.  Moore also made some inexplicable trades to acquire Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs, and had some head scratching signings like Scott Podsednik and Jason Kendall.  None of these grasped straws worked out.

Finally, the 2011 season arrives.  Moore went out on a limb again and pulled Jeff Franceour and Melky Cabrera off the scrap heap.  Each showed why they had been top prospects earlier in their careers, producing good numbers all season.  Alex Gordon looked to have finally lived up to his promise.  Billy Butler, after a somewhat slow first half, recovered to be his steady self.  Best of all, we finally started to see some of the fruits of the vaunted “Process”.  Some of the top prospects from their highly praised minor league system began to make their way to Kansas City.  Several pitchers, namely Aaron Crow, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Danny Duffy, and Tim Collins appeared early and all made some sort of splash.  Top hitters Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakus made the jump.  Salvador Perez and Johnny Giavotella join in.  This is a huge infusion of youth.  Not all of these kids were successful right away.  Moustakus and Giavotella both struggled, although Moose hit very well over the last six weeks.  Duffy struggled with his control nearly every outing.  All showed hints of great promise but when this many kids make their debut in one season, failure and growing pains are part of the deal.

So what does this mean for the 2012 campaign?  In my opinion, the Royals failed to improve their rotation enough to challenge the Tigers.  It is not realistic to expect every one of those rookies from 2011 to take a big step forward.  There are still going to be some serious growing pains.  My guess is that this team will be extremely streaky throughout the year as these young players grow and adjust. 

Those things aside, I think the AL Central is going to be weak this season.  Other than the Tigers, the other four teams are in some degree of rebuilding.  I like what the Royals are doing the most.  I like their young players better than any other teams’.  Of course, I am a serious “homer”.  I can see this club approaching 80 wins, which is probably good for second place.  It is also possible for everything to fall apart because this is after all, the Royals. Twenty-five years of failure can drain optimism out of a person.

The funny thing is, I think the Royals are going to approach .500.  I think there will be more good than bad from these young fellows.  The fact that over 60 players were in Surprise, Arizona working out, hitting, fielding, and throwing three weeks early is a really positive thing.  These young Royals are actually used to winning.  In each of the past four seasons, the Royals have had the team with the highest winning percentage in all of the minor leagues in their organization.  These young Turks have come up through the system together, winning games.  No one has ever been able to prove the value of chemistry on winning baseball games but I can’t think it hurts.  This team has great camaraderie.  They know each; they get along; the have fun together.  They are hungry to give us long suffering Royals fans something to cheer about.  I am going to watch this bunch and I have every confidence that, despite growing pains, this team is going to win some games.  They are going to be fun to watch.  They are going to give us some reason to actually believe success for our team is getting very close.  If we get some miracle growth and development from the rotation, maybe the Royals can be the talk of baseball in September.  Maybe it is safe to dream once again…

I review movies and TV at jawsrecliner and get twitter updates @jawsrecliner

Tired of Waiting for Next Year

We still have a few weeks before the beginning of Spring Training and I find myself thinking more and more about baseball and the Kansas City Royals.  I view the AL Central as a relatively weak division this season because unlike the other divisions, there really aren’t any big boys like the Yankees and Red Sox in the East, and the Rangers and Angels in the West.  At the risk of sounding like a homer, I think the Royals can compete for the division title this year.  Evidently, Dayton Moore and the Royals’ brain trust do not.

It has been a fairly quiet off season for the Royals.  They made a big splash early on during the hot stove season by trading Melky Cabrera, coming off a career year, to the Giants for starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez who suffered through a slightly sup par campaign.  Since then, the only move that has even registered was the idiotic signing of Yuniesky Betancourt as a utility infielder, because his glove is so good!  As this hot stove season begins to cool down, two free agent pitchers are still sitting around with no contracts.  One is Roy Oswalt, who I think could be signed for a 1-year, $10 million deal, plus incentives.  The other is Edwin Jackson, who is probably going to garner a 4-year, $48 million contract.  While each has his warts, both would be an improvement over some of the starters the Royals are going to run out there every five days.

Dayton Moore has hinted strongly that the Royals will not be signing either pitcher and probably won’t be pulling off anymore staggering trades between now and the start of the season.  They want to see what they have in Felipe Paulino, Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, and others.  They don’t want anyone to block the development of these young prospects. 

The question I have to ask is when will it be next year?  As a Royals fan, we have been waiting forever for a competing team.  We keep hearing about the process.  Things have to be done a certain way.  We heard 2011 was going to be the year Kansas City challenged for a Central title.  Then it was 2012.  Now, it seems to be 2013.  Why not 2012?  Why not go for it just a little bit.  Take a chance on one of those free agents pitchers and just go for it!  Now may be the time.  The problem is we probably won’t get the chance to find out.

The Royals’ recently vaunted minor league system really started to produce in 2011.  We all know the list of young bats and bullpen arms that performed very well in 2011.  Is it not possible for the offense, as a unit on the whole, to match or improve its numbers from last season?  Is it unreasonable to expect that the deep and talented bullpen can’t do the same in 2012?  If these two things happen in 2012, wouldn’t a stronger rotation only be a good thing.  Young pitchers can contribute and develop in AAA and as depth in case of injuries.  For years, this organization has rushed guys in the majors.  Is it so bad to be patient now that there is a chance for an improved MLB roster?

It is my opinion that the AL Central is ripe for the picking.  Two teams, the Twins and White Sox, while not officially rebuilding, are certainly in a big transitional stage.  Both have big questions both offensively and on the mound for 2012.  The Indians were one of these surprise teams of 2011 and they in a similar position as the Royals.  They have some young players they are counting on to be productive.  They have some talent on their pitching staff but they have numerous question marks.  The Indians could go either way in the standings; nothing is for certain in Cleveland.  The reigning Central champs are the Tigers and while they have Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, there are several holes in the line-up.  They are really lacking at third and second and their outfield is inconsistent.  It will be difficult, if not impossible, to fully replace the bat of Victor Martinez, who is out for the season.  If the Tigers can’t fill those holes and their pitchers regress, they could be vulnerable.

Oswalt or Jackson could be just the thing to put the Royals over the top in this division.  Oswalt could offer invaluable leadership for a young staff.  He is a bulldog, ground ball pitcher who has battled injuries in recent seasons.  Still, if healthy, he would really add quality depth to the rotation.  Edwin Jackson has been inconsistent in the past but is still just 28 years old and wouldn’t be out of line with the Royals’ youth movement.  And he is durable.  I have a hard time believing he wouldn’t be an asset. 

For all we know, the Royals will take every step forward in every area and with every position and will compete on 2012.  This is not likely.  Maybe the young rotation and prospects in the minors will makes strides forward and no longer be the weak link on the club.  Maybe Moore knows exactly what he is doing and the Royals will compete for the AL Central title in 2012.  I hope so because I am tired of waiting for next year. 

(Since writing this a few days ago, the Detroit Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a 9-year contract.  I no longer think signing Oswalt or Jackson would help the Royals win the AL Central in 2012.  If things went absolutely right for Kansas City and absolutely wrong for the Tigers, it is still possible for the Royals to win.  Those are two very big ifs...)

Read movie and tv reviews at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and get twitter updates @jawsrecliner

Wouldn't Yu Darvish Look Good in Powder Blue?

While the rumor mill is churning out the word that Toronto is the heavy favorite to win the bid for Japanese sensation, Yu Darvish, I'm not convinced.  I've read that Darvish's bid was higher than Dice K's 51.1 million.  I have also read that Toronto's bid was 48 million.  This would lead me to believe the heavily rumored Blue Jays did not win the bid. 

I am not saying the following is a fact or even a rumor.  I have NOT heard or read anything anything about this.  I just want everyone to know that it would not surprise me at all if the Kansas City Royals submitted the winning bid for Darvish. 

I know some of you are thinking, "Dude is crazy!"  While this statement is undoubtedly correct, I have several reasons for believing this to be possible:

1) I have not read anywhere that the Royals did NOT submit a bid.

2) Dayton Moore plays things very close to the vest.  Many (most) of his moves are big surprises.  The Royals run a tight, quiet ship under Moore - very little is ever leaked.

3) Moore is convinced it is nearly impossible to lure a big name free agent to sign KC.  I have heard him say this. 

4) Moore believes the price in prospects is too high for a team like the Royals to make a trade for the likes of Gio Gonzalez, Jair Jurrjens, etc. Just look at the hall for Matt Latos.

5) Former Royals manager Trey Hillman, who also managed in Japan for several years, is a huge Darvish fan.  I'm sure Moore knows this very well.

6) I think Moore believes the Royals are one top-of-the-rotation pitcher away from being a serious contender for the AL Central.  I can't disagree.  Moore may consider this the only way for Kansas City to get a top starting pitcher without giving up several top prospects.


We all will find out within the next few days what team submitted the highest bid.  I'm not saying it is the Royals.  I am saying it is very possible and I won't be surprised in the least.  This is all speculation on my part based on rumors I have read on the internet, for goodness sake.  I know those rumors aren't worth a red penny.  They just made me stop and analyze the situation,  And, as a Royals fan, it has allowed me to dream a little, even if it is just for a few days.


Thanks for reading.  Check out my movie and tv review page at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and get twitter updates @jawsrecliner