2012 Royal Wrap-Up

Another extremely disappointing baseball season is now behind us and I have some post season thoughts I would like to share.

I have always been a Kevin Seitzer fan.  I was happy when he was hired and for a certain kind of team, he is a terrific hitting coach.  If you have a young, untalented team with no power, Seitzer’s philosophy of middle-to-opposite field hitting is a sound hitting theory.  When you have a team of young, talented guys with very nice power upsides, it’s not that great.  Under Seitzer, Kansas City has been in the top four in the AL in batting average the last three years.  They have also been in the top half in doubles the last 3 years (top three in 2011 and 2012).  Unfortunately, the Royals have also been toward the bottom of the AL in runs scored (except for 2011 when they finished 6^th) and home runs.  Seitzer had success with guys like Escobar and Getz, and he deserves some credit for turning Alex Gordon in the right direction.  He had a lot less success with guys with bigger swings, like Hosmer, Moustakas, and Franceour.  I don’t count Billy Butler because I have a feeling Country Breakfast is pretty much his own hitting instructor.  I like Seitzer but I agree the Royals need to go a different direction with the personnel on this team.

On October 3^rd, Rany Jazayerli broke down the Royals long history of avoiding walks on offense on his excellent blog http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/.  I could not agree with him any more that this is a problem that needs to be fixed organizationally. 

Billy Butler should now be considered one of the top right handed hitters in the AL right now.  His .313/.373/.510 averages slash line is outstanding and he threw in 29 HR and 107 RBI just for kicks.  He is now truly a middle of the line-up hitter in a potentially potent line-up.  Butler is just 26 years old with a .300 career average, and already has over 3500 AB, over 100 HR, over 200 doubles, and almost 500 RBI.  His best years are quite possibly still ahead of him.

The Royals are filled with exciting, under-30, budding stars.  None are more exciting to watch than Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar.  Both were much better than expected on offense and both are as fun to watch on defense as any players at their positions in all of baseball.  Both are signed long term so I am thrilled at the prospect of watching them on a daily basis for many years to come.

Speaking of terrific defensive play, Alex Gordon has solidified himself as maybe the best defensive left fielder in all of baseball.  This link, http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/10/4/3452656/the-most-valuable-royal, provides some sources if anyone watching didn’t believe what their eyes were telling you.  Also, Mike Moustakas is a MUCH better defensive player than anyone thought he would be.  He has good hands and a rifle for an arm. 

If the Royals are going to contend soon, youngsters Hosmer and Moustakas MUST take big steps forward in 2013.  A lot of the immediate future of the Kansas City Royals is tied up with these two guys. 

Do you know what team holds the record for most strikeouts from a bullpen in a season?  Well, it is the 2012 Kansas City Royals with 535.  What an impressive effort by a very young group of relief pitchers. 

I will disbelieve any thought that the Royals are serious about winning if they do not cut Luke Hochevar.  He is awful and has been for many years now.  I cannot bear the thought of him in a Royals uniform next season.

It will be a very interesting off season this year as we will see just how hard the Royals pursue starting pitching.  Free agent aces will seldom, if ever, sign with small market teams.  Those small market teams just can’t afford to compete with the big boys in offering big, long contracts to pitchers.  Small market teams just cannot take the same chances on these contracts as the Yankees, or Red Sox, or Dodgers can.  It is a fact.  That doesn’t mean Kansas City can’t make serious runs at pitchers who would slot in as number two or three starters.  If they could somehow add two number 2 starters, I would be ecstatic. 

Finally, Royals fans took a bit of grief nationally for relentlessly riding Robinson Cano during the All-Star festivities.  I had absolutely zero problems with the fans for letting Cano know they were displeased with him for not picking Billy Butler for the Home Run Derby.  Cano twice stated he would, then didn’t.  He should be accountable for lying to fans.  In a great story, these same fans, on the last day of the season, robustly cheered rival Miguel Cabrera when he officially won the first Triple Crown in 45 years.  Royals fans cheered the Detroit Tiger long and loud enough that Miggy gave them a curtain call in appreciation, also recognizing the tribute the Royals players and staff also paid him by their applause as well.  Cabrera was sincerely appreciative of the ovation.  It was a touching moment all around.  Royals’ owner, discount king David Glass, should need little more proof how hungry local fans are for something to cheer about.  Kansas City was a great baseball town at one time, before David Glass squeezed out all hope.  These fans deserve better. 

An a related topic, I have a hard time listening and reading to all of the debate around the MVP.  Miguel Cabrera won the first Triple Crown since 1967.  There is a reason it hasn’t been done in 45 years.  Poo-poo the Triple Crown categories all you want.  It is still an amazing accomplishment for the offensive leader of a divisional winner and for there even to be an argument is just plain silly.  I love stats as much as anyone; I get in what ways Trout had a great, historic season, but SO DID MIGUEL CABRERA!!!  He has been one of the most consistent run producers in recent years and was a total team players, switching positions with little or no complaint (unlike a certain former Marlin), and playing better than expected.  Please put this argument to bed and just give Miggy the MVP trophy. 

Thanks for reading.

All Star Ponderings

Keep in mind as you read this that I am a life long Royals fan.  I grew up in the heyday of the 70s and 80s.  I have suffered through some of the worst team managements in the history of sports.  Despite the last quarter of a century, I still love my team and the city and area it represents.  I want my team and Kansas City to be shown in the best light possible.

As far as the process of how the All Star teams are selected, I don’t have much issue in general.  I think more thought could be put into the whole process of picking the reserves, though.  There is too much chance for selfishness.  I will hold up Ron Washington as an example of this.  I like Washington.  It can be conceded he has been good in his tenure as manager of the Rangers.  I do have a problem though with his selection of Elvis Andrus to this team.  It is not that I think Andrus is undeserving.  It is the fact that Washington added Andrus as the seventh Ranger on the team (Yu Darvish was added as the 8^th Ranger later).  For the first time in many years, the Royals had more than one legitimate candidate for this exhibition.  With the game in Kansas City, Alcides Escobar should have been selected in addition to the Royals’ best player, Billy Butler.  Escobar, the leading hitting shortstop in the majors, would not have been a pity pick.  Escobar, and the hometown Royals, deserved more than just Butler, who will probably get one pinch hit at-bat.  The Royals fans deserved more and the Rangers were already over represented as it was.

Then there is the case of Robinson Cano.  Some writers have complained about the childishness of the Kansas City fans in their relentless booing of Cano and their glee in his utter failure during the Home Run Derby.  The fans were irritated because Cano failed to select Butler for the derby.  They booed him because he said he would select Butler.  I personally heard an interview with John Kruk and Cano and the Yankee said as much.  Then he did not pick Butler.  He has since told at least two different stories on why he didn’t.  The fans booed him because he flat out lied.  Period.  He lied and has made excuses.  The derby is supposedly strictly about the fans.  Cano and MLB have proved otherwise.  The fans booed as a way to show their displeasure and that is their absolute right.  Shame on those who fail to understand that.

The Royals fans showed their class by warmly welcoming former Royals, Carlos Beltran and Melky Cabrera.  The fans appreciated their efforts on behalf of the organization and are happy for their successes.  The Kansas City natives were very warm in their greeting of Chipper Jones, playing his first ands last game in Kaufman Stadium.  The fans aren’t classless, just frustrated at the lack of things to cheer about and the lack of respect shown them by those who made decisions concerning the All Star selections.   There should be some consideration to the home team every year when it comes to the rosters and derby.  It would cost the league nothing and would mean everything to the home fans.

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ROYAL CANDIDATES

It is sign that the process is finally starting to show results.  Dayton Moore has verbally pounded us for six years, telling us to be patient.  If Royals stick to the process, eventually the process will net real results on the field.  Finally, we are seeing those results.  For the first time in many, many years, the Kansas City Royals have some actual, real, legitimate candidates for the Major League Baseball All Star game in Kaufman Stadium on July 10^th. 

The most deserving Royal, taking positions into account, in my opinion, is Mike Moustakas.  The 22-year old has been a consistent producer at the plate all season and his defense has been much better than anticipated.  Moose has 13 home runs, over 60 runs produced, and a .842 OPS.  Moustakas is in the top 5 among AL third basemen in numerous offensive categories.  The biggest problem for Moose is that there are two of the best offensive players in the American League playing third base.  Either Adrian Beltre or Miguel Cabrera will certainly be voted in as a starter and the other is certainly deserving of an all star roster spot.  Will Ron Washington choose to go with 3 players from the hot corner?  Royals fans have to hope so because that may be Moustakas’ only chance to make the team.

The second most deserving Royal is DH Billy Butler.  Unfortunately for Country Breakfast, David Ortiz is going to be the AL’s starting DH for the Midsummer Classic (on a side note, the Red Sox don’t deserve to send more players than Ortiz to the game).  On top of Ortiz being a lock, Chicago’s Adam Dunn has bounced back with 24 home runs in 2012 and could gain a manager’s selection and Toronto’s Edwin Encarnacion has had a terrific year for the Blue Jays.  Either of the players could snag the back up DH spot on the All Star roster.  Butler has 15 dingers, nearly 60 runs produced, and he sports a .868 OPS.  Butler is deserving but may lose out to either Dunn or Encarnacion.

This leaves shortstop Alcides Escobar.  Escobar is a spectacular fielder and this year he has added a valuable bat to his repertoire.  He is hitting a surprising .315 with 12 steals.  He only has 2 home runs but add in 2 triples and 19 doubles to complete his All Star resume.  Outside Derek Jeter, no shortstop has had a better all around season than Escobar.  It is because of this lack of league wide position depth that leads me to believe Escobar may be able to sneak onto the roster. 

A case could also be made for Tim Collins but for the first time in a long, long time, Kansas City has legitimate choices at several positions.  Usually, teams who have to be represented by someone and have few candidates end up sending their best bullpen performer.  This is the position the Royals have been in for years.  Maybe this year, we will get to see more than one Royal in the All Star game.  It would be a great reward for all of us fans who have suffered through all the losing.  Hopefully on July 10^th, there will be couple of boys in blue representing the Royals in Kaufman Stadium.

Before closing out, it is an interesting note that Billy Butler has publicly mentioned his desire to participate in the Home Run Derby.  Because of the Yankees and Rangers filling out a majority of starting spots, there may be a trickle down effect for players like Moustakas, Butler, and Escobar.  This situation could curtail any chances they had at being selected.  A solution may be to reward Billy Butler with a spot in the Derby instead.  As a Royal fan, this would be a great reward to have our home town guy on the spotlight.  

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The Most Under-Appreciated Royal

George Brett is undeniably the greatest hitter in the history of the Kansas City Royals.  Brett accumulated 3,154 hits, 665 doubles, 137 triples (yeah, you read that right), and 317 home runs.  He had 1,583 runs, 1596 rbi, and a .305 average on route to a first ballot Hall of Fame career.  As far as the Royals are concerned, no player is even close and I think Brett would be listed on most lists as a top 3 all-time third baseman, even though he played a lot of games at first and DH. 

The Royals have a hitter on their team right now that compares favorable to Brett at the same age.  No, it’s not phenom Eric Hosmer.  No, it’s not emerging Alex Gordon.  It is the veteran Billy Butler.  It seems like Billy “Country Breakfast” Butler has been around forever but did you know Butler just celebrated his 26^th birthday less than two weeks ago?  He has amassed some really impressive statistics at a very young age. 

George Brett basically got started a year earlier than Butler.  Butler got 390 AB at the age of 21 while Brett received 41 AB at 20 and 486 AB at 21 years of age.  For comparative purposes, I am going by games.  Brett had 731 games by the end of 1978, when he was 25.  Butler has 712 games through 04/28/2012, after just turning 26.  There isn’t that much difference in age between these two hitters after a similar number of games played

Brett had 3114 PA to Butlers 2947 at this stage.  Brett had an amazing 2850 AB with 870 hits.  He had led the AL in both of those categories twice by the time he was 24 years old.  Billy has 2653 AB and 789 hits.  Brett’s average in that time was .305 (a match for his career) and Butler is hitting .297.  The biggest thing that these numbers illustrate is that in his early 20’s, George Brett was already a hitting star.  We all know he was playing on a great team, one that won 3 division titles during this time.  Butler has been in the middle of the lineup for some of the worst teams in the majors so far in his career. 

If you delve deeper though, Butler compares even more favorably in some of the other stats.  Butler has 191 doubles to Brett’s 169.  Keep in mind that George Brett is 6^th all time in doubles.  Butler has been criticized that he doesn’t hit for power, yet he has out homered Brett during this stretch 79 to 51.  In fact, Butler has more extra base hits than Brett during these similar periods of their careers, 279 to 273.  This is despite the fact that Brett already had an incredible 53 triples by the end of 1978. 

(An interesting side note – George Brett ranks 67^th in triples with 137.  Of players who played in a significant number of games after 1970, only Lou Brock and teammate Willie Wilson hit more triples than Brett.  I think this is one of the more amazing stats of Brett’s career because he only stole 201 bases – he was not known as a speedster at all.)

As I mentioned before, Brett was in the middle of a terrific lineup and he scored 413 runs in those early years while Butler is quite a bit behind him with 321.  Butler is as slow on the base paths as any player you will see, plus Brett hit himself into scoring position a lot more with all of those triples.  This being said, Butler has more RBI through this point in their careers, 389 to 354, and impressive stat for Butler. 

I am not saying that Billy Butler is the player George Brett was.  Brett played in a much different era, on a much different team.  Butler will be forever cursed by the reality that he is a DH.  My point to this exercise is that Royals fans have been slow to embrace Butler as a favorite.  I think this is a mistake.  Butler is a consummate hitter and the ultimate leader of the Royals youth movement.  Butler is a very similar type of hitter to Brett.  His home run power will eventually develop, just like Brett’s did.  Even so, just like Brett’s, Butler’s power will probably top out around 30.  Butler will obviously never hit the triples King George did but his doubles’ numbers could be comparable.  The terrific stat site baseball-reference.com, has a great feature where they break down players careers into 162 game averages.  This is a good tool for comparative purposes.  Taking a close look at this, George Brett does have a slight edge over Butler in nearly every category.  That advantage though, is slight. 

George Brett was a first ballot Hall of Famer who received over 90% votes on that first ballot.  It is doubtful that Butler will play into his 40’s but I will tell you something.  As long as Butler continues to hit like a poor man’s George Brett, I want him penciled in my lineup everyday at DH.  Fans need to start appreciating Billy Butler.  The man can hit.

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Opening Day Royal Predictions

Making predictions before the season starts is kind of a worthless endeavor but as baseball fans, it sure is fun.  We will quickly forget those predictions on which we missed the target and humbly claim expertise on those which prove correct.  Hey, we all do it, so today, I’m going to have some fun and throw my darts.  I will take a look at the Royals and make my predictions for their season. This will give you a little idea what to look for in 2012.

CATCHER – The Royals will live with the Humberto Quintero/Brayan Pena platoon for a couple of months.  I think the estimation of Salvador Perez’s return not being until late June is conservative.  I look for him to return in late May or early June.  Whichever catcher maintains his roster spot when Perez returns may get a few games as Salvador works himself back into the lineup but will see little action late in the season.

1B – Eric Hosmer will be a star eventually.  While I think he will make strides in that direction, he won’t make it this season.  He will approach .300 and I expect about 22 Home Runs.  His defense, which graded out poorly last season, will be much improved this year.  Consider him a very good player who gains much needed experience in 2012.

2B – The Royals will finally realize that grit does not win baseball games and finally get rid of Chris Getz.  This decision will be quickened by Johnny Giavotella, who again tears up AAA pitching.  Gio will make a return to the Royals in late May and will hit around .260 with some pop.  I am scared Getz will again fail and instead of bringing up Giavotella, the Royals will make Yuniesky Betancourt the everyday second baseman.  Yuck!!!

3B – Mike “Moose” Moustakus will actually become an above average 3-bagger.  He will not hit for the average Hosmer will but could actually develop more power.  Moose will push his average up to around .275 and will push toward 25 HR.  He won’t be as consistent as Hosmer either, but will offer good power in 2012.

SS – Alcides Escobar will continue making watching defense fun.  This dude is spectacular.  Hitting Coach Kevin Seitzer will continue to mold Escobar into a solid line drive hitter.  .265 with 30 steals at the bottom of the order will spark the offense.

LF – Alex Gordon just inked a nice contract and will continue to be a fan favorite.  I look for his average to drop toward the .280 range and for his home runs to peak over the topside of 20.  He will continue to lead off and will prove his Gold Glove was no fluke.

CF – Lorenzo Cain will turn into a solid starting center fielder this season.  His speed and glove will make us forget the Melk Man, even if his bat doesn’t match Melky’s breakout 2011 season.  Manager Ned Yost loves to run, so Cain may steal 25 bases.  Fifteen dingers and a .275 average would satisfy me.

RF – Jeff Francoeur will settle into the player he was a year ago.  He will never be a star but 20 homers and 15 steals is pretty solid.  Frenchy seems to love working with Kevin Seitzer and has learned to spray the ball, improving his average.  Frenchy will always take his hacks but is a little more under control now.  His incredible arm makes up for Francoeur being a little over rated defensively but he is still above average in right.

DH – I think Billy Butler will become a star in 2012.  Country Breakfast can flat out hit and he is being driven by improved offensive players around him.  Butler will finally realize his power and turn some of those doubles into round trippers.  .300/28/110 is a realistic line for Butler and I will stand by that prediction.

The Bullpen – Joakim Soria is gone for the year (maybe for good as the Royals will never pick up an $8 million option).  Jonathan Broxton was named the closer last night but he has yet to go in back-to-back games and has a history of injuries.  I think Greg Holland may eventually take the job and become very successful because he has the stuff and mentality to succeed as the closer.  Either way, they are an impressive 1-2 punch late in the game.  A guy to watch is Kelvin Herrera.  This kid has eye popping stuff and will probably serve ass the 7^th inning guy.  He will pile up strikeouts as he toils in anonymity in KC.  This group is a strength and will continue to excel.

(*Note – In all honesty, I wrote this yesterday and predicted Holland would be named closer and would not relinquish the job.  Technically, I am already 0 for 1.)

The Rotation – Better known as the “reason the Royals don’t have a chance to win the AL Central”.  This being said, I do not think it will be as bad as people think.  Luke Hochevar is on the brink of a breakout season.  Jonathan Sanchez is a K machine.  Danny Duffy will be inconsistent but will take a giant step forward.  Bruce Chen will be solid if not woefully unspectacular but he won’t match his 2011 numbers.  I have a hard time believing Luis Mendoza will fool major league hitters on a regular basis (hope I’m wrong).  The biggest wild card here will be what happens when Felipe Paulino returns from the DL.  My prediction is he will go to the bullpen until Mendoza starts getting pummeled and will again look good as a starter.  As the season progresses, with its inevitable injuries and poor performances, youngsters Mike Montgomery (if he can somehow find a way to manage the strike zone) and Jake Odorizzi could make late season appearances. 

Overall – I think the AL Central is a weak division with one elite team in the Tigers.  The other four teams are trying to rebuild to some extent.  I predict that the Royals’ young offense and slightly improved rotation will be enough for Kansas City to take second place in the division, edging out Cleveland and Chicago.  Too much has to go right for KC to win more than half their games but I am going to predict 80 wins for the Royals in 2012.  With the emergence of Butler, Hosmer, Gordon, and Moustakus, the Royals will be an offensive force but their rotation will continue not to scare anyone.

Billy Butler is my pick for the Royal Player of the Year and Luke Hochevar as the Pitcher of the Year.

There you go.  After the season is over, I will only recognize those predictions in which I was somewhat close.  

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KC's Eternally Springing Hope

At one point, the Kansas City Royals was baseball’s model expansion franchise.  They won their first division title in their eighth year in 1976.  From 1976-1981, the Royals won 5 divisional titles in six years (in the strike split 1981 season, KC won one half of the season and the A’s won the other half – the A’s won a divisional playoff series).  The Royals played in their first World Series in 1980, their 12^th season, and won in 1985.  From 1976-1985, Kansas City was one of the winningest teams in baseball.

There is a perception that the Royals have been terrible since 1985.  That’s not quite true.  From 1986-1994, Kansas City finished over .500 in 6 of those nine seasons, never winning fewer than 72 games.  Since 1995 however, the Royals have been one of the worst franchises in baseball, only finishing above .500 one time (2003).  This time period coincides directly with the time frame in which the Glass family took over the franchise.  They have treated it like their own personal giant, box, discount, retail outlet.  They throw a shoddy product out for consumption and laugh all the way to the bank.  I will never be convinced the Glass family has ever lost so much as a penny on the Kansas City Royals.

In 2006, the Glasses finally did something right.  They hired the hot commodity general manager candidate, Dayton Moore.  Moore was a childhood Royals fan and cut his teeth in the Braves organization.  Moore took the job with the caveat that he would get extended funds to correctly develop and build success from within.  The Royals increased the scouting development and budget and expanded their almost non-existent presence in Latin America.  Money was freed up for draft picks.  The foundation was finally being laid. 

It has been a painful process because, as the minor leagues have set a strong foundation, the structure at the top has been a flimsy, straw shack.  As successful as Moore has been in building up the minor league system, the product he has fielded on the major league level has not been good.  He tried to get things done by bringing in Gil Meche (who was a good signing until Trey Hillman destroyed his arm) and he brought in the only run producer Moore could convince (bribe) to sign in KC, Jose Guillen.  Guillen actually produced some much needed power in his 2-plus seasons but he carried so much baggage, it was hardly noticeable.  Moore also made some inexplicable trades to acquire Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs, and had some head scratching signings like Scott Podsednik and Jason Kendall.  None of these grasped straws worked out.

Finally, the 2011 season arrives.  Moore went out on a limb again and pulled Jeff Franceour and Melky Cabrera off the scrap heap.  Each showed why they had been top prospects earlier in their careers, producing good numbers all season.  Alex Gordon looked to have finally lived up to his promise.  Billy Butler, after a somewhat slow first half, recovered to be his steady self.  Best of all, we finally started to see some of the fruits of the vaunted “Process”.  Some of the top prospects from their highly praised minor league system began to make their way to Kansas City.  Several pitchers, namely Aaron Crow, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Danny Duffy, and Tim Collins appeared early and all made some sort of splash.  Top hitters Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakus made the jump.  Salvador Perez and Johnny Giavotella join in.  This is a huge infusion of youth.  Not all of these kids were successful right away.  Moustakus and Giavotella both struggled, although Moose hit very well over the last six weeks.  Duffy struggled with his control nearly every outing.  All showed hints of great promise but when this many kids make their debut in one season, failure and growing pains are part of the deal.

So what does this mean for the 2012 campaign?  In my opinion, the Royals failed to improve their rotation enough to challenge the Tigers.  It is not realistic to expect every one of those rookies from 2011 to take a big step forward.  There are still going to be some serious growing pains.  My guess is that this team will be extremely streaky throughout the year as these young players grow and adjust. 

Those things aside, I think the AL Central is going to be weak this season.  Other than the Tigers, the other four teams are in some degree of rebuilding.  I like what the Royals are doing the most.  I like their young players better than any other teams’.  Of course, I am a serious “homer”.  I can see this club approaching 80 wins, which is probably good for second place.  It is also possible for everything to fall apart because this is after all, the Royals. Twenty-five years of failure can drain optimism out of a person.

The funny thing is, I think the Royals are going to approach .500.  I think there will be more good than bad from these young fellows.  The fact that over 60 players were in Surprise, Arizona working out, hitting, fielding, and throwing three weeks early is a really positive thing.  These young Royals are actually used to winning.  In each of the past four seasons, the Royals have had the team with the highest winning percentage in all of the minor leagues in their organization.  These young Turks have come up through the system together, winning games.  No one has ever been able to prove the value of chemistry on winning baseball games but I can’t think it hurts.  This team has great camaraderie.  They know each; they get along; the have fun together.  They are hungry to give us long suffering Royals fans something to cheer about.  I am going to watch this bunch and I have every confidence that, despite growing pains, this team is going to win some games.  They are going to be fun to watch.  They are going to give us some reason to actually believe success for our team is getting very close.  If we get some miracle growth and development from the rotation, maybe the Royals can be the talk of baseball in September.  Maybe it is safe to dream once again…

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