Royals Pull Trigger for Shields

I had a big Chiefs’ piece ready to go this morning but I woke up to find Royals’ news tearing up the world wide web and the radio airwaves.  After quivering in the bushes for weeks, afraid to make a big move, General Manager Dayton Moore finally went for it.  The Royals traded 4 minor leaguers to Tampa for  “Big Game” James Shields and Wade Davis.  Of course, two of the minor leagues were top prospect Wil Myers and the Royals’ top pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi.   This is where the argument comes in.

Kansas City just traded six plus years of control of a guy that hit 37 home runs in the minors in 2012 AND their top minor league pitcher with 6 years of control for two years of James Shields (committing $25 million) and five years of Wade Davis.  For an organization starved for future stars, that will be a bitter pill to swallow.  I get it.  I did not want the Royals to trade Wil Myers.  I am not sure adding Shields and Davis will win more games than having Franceour still in right field every day.  If Myers turns into a star and the Royals do not make the playoffs in the next two years, this trade will have been a disaster – in hindsight.  It is not a disaster right this minute.  

Wil Myers has a chance to be a superstar.  Few argue that point but we don’t know that for sure.  Phil Hyatt once hit 44 home runs in the minors for the Royals.  Phil Who Now?  Exactly.  With prospects, you just don’t know.  Not every prospect is Mike Trout.  Even if Myers turns into a star, the odds are against him contributing in a major way in his first two years.  BaseballHQ.com did a great 4-part series on the MLB success of players who made the top 100 prospect lists at some point.  To summarize, the rate wasn’t good.  That doesn’t mean Myers is going to fail; top 10 prospects fair better than those outside the top 10.  My guess he will be at least an above average MLB player, and possibly better than that but maybe not until year three.  That is pure speculation on my part.  Odorizzi has question marks, too.  He struggled in AAA to pitch deep into games and that would be a big problem at the major league level.  The Royals already have plenty of pitchers in that mold.  At the very least, Davis is on the same talent level as Odorizzi but much farther along in his development.  Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard were throw-ins here and while I don’t know much about the latter other than he is a power hitting third baseman nowhere near ready for the majors, the former is obviously in need of a scenery change.  I wish them good luck in their new organization.  

James Shields is the type of pitcher the Royals desperately need - a staff anchor who takes the ball every five days and pitches a lot of innings at a good level.   BaseballHQ.com took statistical data and came up with a list of staff anchors for the 2013 season, based on performances over the past two years.  Only 8 pitchers met their criteria.  One of them was James Shields.  A guy like Shields, in addition to Guthrie and Santana, should take the pressure off the bullpen.  The bullpen has been great but just how long can it succeed working as hard as it has the last two seasons?  This team is much stronger today than it was yesterday.  Wade Davis could be very important because he is probably better than Chen, Mendoza, and Hochevar and should move right into the number four slot.  Now all those #5 pitchers will be slotted where they belong.  Now maybe Moore can trade one of those guys for some outfield help (don’t expect much in return, though).  This also relieves any pressure there might be to rush Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino back too quickly.  These two important guys will have time to build up to their full strength and if things play out right, maybe they are ready to contribute to meaningful games in September and October (I’ve always been the optimist).

I know we all love the possibility of Wil Myers.  I know I do.  The fans of this team want heroes and Myers looks like he could have been a big one but this team is loaded with possible contenders.  Billy Butler can still hit.  Alex Gordon is still an above average, under appreciated player.  Hosmer and Moustakus are still very young, developing players.  Escobar and Perez are still among the best at their positions.  If these young players don’t improve and take the next step forward, it won’t matter how good James Shields, or how good Wil Myers may be.  If there isn’t an improvement in the hitting among the youngsters, the Royals are not going to compete anyway.  Now, if these guys all do take that step forward, I like the Royals’ chances with James Shields on the mound.  

Shields comes with risks (he throws a lot of innings and has shown inconsistency in the past) but there isn’t a pitcher out there who doesn’t come with a fair share baggage and risk.  There is always a chance something goes wrong (Kansas City has had more than its share of bad luck over the decades) but I am going to be positive and look at the fact the Royals got a top of the rotation arm and a solid number 4 starter with upside.

Let’s dream a little here.  What if the Royals’ young guys take big steps toward reaching their potential?  What if Guthrie pitches like he did with KC last year?  What if Santana throws up numbers like 2011?  What if Shields has opportunities to earn his nickname in powder blue?  This is a lot of “what ifs” but I am going to choose to be optimistic and positive going into 2013.  I love the feeling of hope going into each Spring Training.

I wrote just a few days ago that Dayton Moore wasn’t getting anything done and I put owner David Glass’ feet to the fire about pinching pennies.  It would be terribly hypocritical of me to berate them for going out and getting a couple of good starting pitchers, including a top of the rotation guy, for a bunch of minor leaguers.  You have to give up something to get something.  Royals made the move they needed to make and now have a chance to compete in the AL Central.  Maybe the Royals become that small market team in 2013 that challenges for the division title like Oakland and Baltimore last year.  Maybe now it is our time.

Moore and Glass are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.  Fans are just not going to be happy.  Well, this fan is much happier today than he was four days ago; I can assure you of that.  They pulled the trigger and only time will tell if it will work successfully.  Only in hindsight will we be able to judge the success of this move but this morning, I am glad to be a Royals’ fan.

Be sure to watch ESPN’s 30 for 30 “You Don’t Know Bo”.  It is outstanding.

Check out my movie and television reviews at jawsrecliner.com and get twitter updates for my blogs @jawsrecliner.  Thanks for reading. 

An Empty Glass

I was all prepared to write up an article about how the Kansas City Royals made out at the MLB Winter Meetings in Nashville this week.  I was ready to praise Dayton Moore for pulling off exactly the right move and I was equally prepared to blast the sometimes panicky General Manager for giving up too much for too little.  This article is going to unfold much differently than I had planned.

Let me start off with saying it was really nice to actually be in the discussions during the Hot Stove season.  Year after year, I watch the pinnacle of the Hot Stove season with interest only as a fan in general.  The Royals seldom participate in this annual extravaganza in any tangible manner.   Not so this year as rumor after rumor shot through the world wide web, keeping me checking my twitter page for days.  The rumor mill had been churning out possibilities for weeks leading up to the Winter Meetings and everyone knew the Royals were ready to make a big splash.  MLB Network and ESPN talking heads were all reporting that Kansas City was going to be a big player during these Winter Meetings because of their dearth of starting pitching and their perceived plethora of young bats, including the top hitting prospect in all of baseball.  

The biggest fear for me was that General Manager Dayton Moore would trade a key piece of a below average offense to fill a spot in a horrible rotation.  Worse, that he would trade a guy who could possibly hit 30+ homeruns for several years for the services of a good pitcher for just two years.  I am not saying there isn’t a situation where that might not be a good thing but it has to be the right deal.  I am tired of the Royals always promising they will be better next year.  I want them to win this year.  When is the vaunted Process going to pay dividends?

As it turned out, all those exciting rumors amounted to nothing.  Whispers in the wind, if you will.  Despite reassurances from all the talking heads, the Royals talked a big game but, as usual, didn’t deliver.  They didn’t even add anyone via the Rule 5 draft.  The Winter Meetings as a whole turned out rather uneventful, for the Royals specifically and most teams in general, other than maybe the Giants and Red Sox.

So yesterday, the post meeting hangover set in.  Dayton Moore was flying home and it didn’t look like there was going to be any excitement.  Then – BANG.  Bob Dutton from the Kansas City Star dropped a bomb on all of us die hard Royals’ fans.  A few weeks ago, Royals’ owner David Glass talked to certain media members and declared that basically the Royals can’t be profitable if their payroll is over $70 million dollars a year and that he had subsidized MLB payroll out of his own pocket several times over the years.  Every person who could type and post on the internet, some of them very respected baseball people, disclaimed this statement as a blatant falsehood.  Even Forbes magazine provided numbers much differently.

Instead of a soft cap of $70 million to work with, the Royals, according to Dutton’s article yesterday afternoon, provided by Royals’ officials, the Royals’ breakeven point was closer to $60 million because the $70 million included the 40-man roster, draft signings, and international signings, and that Kansas City was already over budget for its payroll for 2013.  Twitter blew up.  Radios exploded.  There was cyber chaos everywhere in the Kansas City Metro area.  David Glass, whom many already believed was lying before, now jumped up into Richard M. Nixon and Pinocchio levels in the pantheon of liars.  No one I read or listened to believed these numbers were anywhere near accurate.

Then the “Oops, my bad.”  Dutton retracted his article.  Some Royals official had given him the wrong data or something.  Whatever, but the number is still supposedly $70 million for the 35-man roster.  While everyone has recovered and calmed down, no one is buying that figure either.  Glass and other club officials claim he has not pocketed a dime from the Royals.  Forbes reported otherwise, claiming Glass has reaped profit to the tune of approximately $100 million since 2000.  That is a big disparity.  Let’s not forget that Glass bought the Royals for less than $100 million and it is now valued, according to Forbes, at more than $350 million.  I dare say, Mr. Glass, that is a tidy profit. 

With all the money that is pouring into the coffers via television contracts, which will increase dramatically in 2014, and other league generated shared revenues, plus the increased revenue from rising attendance, I can see no reason the Royals can’t have a payroll of around $90 million this year and $110 million in 2014.  Guys a lot smarter than I (check out ranyontheroyals.com for a very good financial breakdown for the Royals) have done the math and I can see nothing to dispute their numbers.  It is time, Mr. Glass, to piss or get the hell off the pot.  Help us field a winning team or sell it and take your quarter of a billion dollar profit and return to Arkansas.  

I wish there was a way we could see exactly what the numbers are.  I wish the teams that are playing in county or state funded stadiums had to provide financial statements to the public.  There needs to be a show of good faith.  Right now, there is no faith in David Glass as owner of the Kansas City Royals.  Few people believe his statements about the financial situation.  We as fans are tired of the constant losing and penny pinching.  Either loosen the purse strings or you may witness an empty, cavernous stadium this summer.  Well, you won’t witness it.  You’ll be safely tucked away in Arkansas or in your bigger-than-Rhode Island compound in Wyoming or Montana or wherever the heck it is, counting your money like King Midas.

Glass has never had an accurate reading of the pulse of the KC fans and he better have a thick skin if he doesn’t provide extra dollars this off season.  It is getting harder and harder to be a Royals fan.  I am tired of the heart break.  I love baseball and I love the Royals but I am close to giving up.  It’s up to you, Mr. Glass.  At least show us some effort.  I am begging you.

Check out my list of all-time favorite TV dramas at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and thanks for reading.

Jeremy Guthrie vs. the Stat Geeks

I use the term “stat geek” in only the most complimentary manner possible.  I am a stat geek.  I have been for years.  I was the kid who minded the stats books for the girls’ games before my games in junior high and high school.  I kept stats on my own video games.  I studied the back of baseball and football cards until I knew all the numbers.  When fantasy baseball rose to prominence in the 1980s, I was one of the first in line and I have been hooked ever since.

I love all the stats like the hard stats like home runs, stolen bases, RBI, etc.  I like the peripheral stats like on-base percentage, slugging percentage etc.  I like the trending skill stats like ground ball rate, contact rate, strikeouts per 9 innings, K/BB, batting average on ball in play, etc.  I even love algebraic stats like wins above replacement and runs above replacement.  So much of baseball – real and fantasy – is based on the projecting of stats through scientific and mathematical analysis.  We try to predict hard stats much more scientifically than we used to be analyzing players’ trending skills.  For example, if a hitter bats .320 for a season and he enjoyed an average of .360 on balls in play (batted balls in between the lines), we can predict with confidence that his batting average will drop the next year.  Throughout baseball history, the average on balls put in play is right around .300.  If our batter hit .360, we know he enjoyed extreme luck on batted balls.  The odds are very good that luck at that level will not continue for a second season, therefore his batting average will most likely drop.  The point is I love all of these stats and I use them all the time to analyze players.  Sometimes, though, the numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Now we come to the part of this post that I have rewritten three times this morning.  I keep falling into a deep explanation of stats and what separates similarly skilled players from one another.  That is not what I intended when I started this piece.  I decided to write this because I am ticked off at the reaction of all the stat geeks out there to the Royals signing Jeremy Guthrie, and also to their reaction to the Royals trading for Ervin Santana a couple of weeks ago.  There are several stat guys and bloggers out there that I have read and respected for years.  I still do but I have gotten very frustrated with them over the past few weeks.

I am not going to list all of the bloggers and their sites.  Let’s just say these are some very smart, very passionate guys.  Most are Royals fans but a couple others are just stat geeks.  Some are baseball guys – you know the talking heads on television.  Almost to a man these guys are ripping the Royals for the money they have committed to Santana and Guthrie.  Their point is the Royals could have spent their allotted free agent money more wisely.  My question to all of these guys is how?

Kansas City will pay Santana $11 million in 2013 (it’s 12 actually but they received a million form the Angels) and they will pay $5 million to Guthrie this season, $11 million in 2014, $9 million in 2015.  They have committed $36 million to receive 4 seasons of services (overlap in 2013).  I read a comment from one former GM, ragging on the Royals for paying $16 million to those two newly acquired pitchers.  He asked why they didn’t spend that money on Greinke or Anibal Sanchez.  This was an utterly stupid comment.  Neither of those pitchers, the best two options on the free agent market, are going to sign 1-year $16 million dollar deal with the Royals, or anyone else for that matter.  They are not going to sign a 2-year deal for $32 million deal either.  It would not surprise me if Greinke signs a 6-year, $120 million contract and I’m expecting at least 6 years and $90 million for Sanchez.  The Royals flat out can’t afford those contracts for that amount of years.

The next level of free agents is Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, and Kyle Lohse.  All of these three have their warts and are probably better than the two pitchers Kansas City added.  They are all probably going to command much bigger deals than what KC handed out.  There is still a chance the Royals can sign one of these guys but it is an outside chance because with such a limited market, these guys are probably going to be way over priced, more so than Guthrie.

Last night I got into a polite on-line argument with a stat guy about the length of Guthrie’s contract.  Another baseball guy, Rany Jazayerli, liked the signing but hates the third year so much he is not willing to endorse the signing.  I understand the argument but my stand was there was probably little chance the Royals sign him without that third year.  The debaters against the signing all point to that third year, saying you don’t give a 36-year old pitcher with pretty pedestrian numbers $9 million.  The contract averages $8.3 million a year.  That is not out of line with a pitcher of his caliber.  If Sanchez signs that 6-year, $90 million deal, will he be worth $15 million at the age of 34?  Will he provide more than 3 and a half times the value over the course of his contract than Guthrie will provide over the duration of his contract?  I sincerely doubt it very much. 

Another point is that premium free agents, especially top of the rotation pitchers are not going to sign in Kansas City, for any reasonable amount.  This is sad and it sucks but it is the absolutely the truth.  People can hide behind their keyboards and pontificate all they want about how terrible Dayton Moore is (and he has earned much of their scorn in all honesty) and how he should be spending money on the Greinkes and Sanchezes of the world.  That doesn’t change the fact they aren’t going to sign here.  I would love to be proved wrong but it will never happen at this point.  Until the Royals can improve their record and challenge for divisional titles, the Royals and Dayton Moore are going to have to slightly overpay for fringe free agents who only marginally improve the team.  That is a fact of life.  It is reality.  Quit begging the general manager to improve the team then bashing him when he does.  How about finding ways to be positive instead of filling your pages with negativity?  How maybe throwing some support behind your team?

Of course, I know the answers to those questions.  Whenever Moore has made a move with the major league roster, more often than not, it has ended in disaster.  We have to live with Moore’s bad judgments in signing Jeff Franceour and Bruce Chen to 2 year extensions for too much money.  We have to live with Moore trading anyone for Jonathon Sanchez.  We have to live with Moore signing terrible players like Yuniesky Betancourt.  Those types of moves do not translate into confidence when Moore signs a guy like Guthrie for 3 years.

I want to take a moment to examine Jeremy Guthrie.  If you throw out the very small sample size of Guthrie’s starts in Coors Field, his stats last year were right in line with his career numbers.  Many a pitcher has fallen apart in Coors Field.  Guthrie wasn’t the first and he won’t be the last.  I think we can safely toss out those three plus months in the Mile High City.  Guthrie has been consistent and durable, if not spectacular or flashy, throughout his career. The Royals desperately need a starter who can throw into the seventh on a regular basis.  One national talking head baseball guy has gone on the record that other GMs around the league think the Royals’ deal with Guthrie is a fair one because of his stamina and durability.  Rany Jazayerli does a great breakdown on Guthrie and comparable pitchers and their contracts at ranyontheroyals.com.

One stat guy told me last night he thought the Royals should tap into their deep reserves of minors to acquire pitching.  I agree and I hope this is still being pursued by the Royals’ front office.  Many people think KC should give up one of their young hitters but I think it is counterproductive to trade key offensive pieces on the major league level to acquire pitching.  What good is that pitcher if they can’t score runs for him?  The Royals do have a deep minor league system and I hope some of that talent can be moved to improve the big league roster.

Two years from now, I may be bemoaning the fact the Moore was an idiot and the Royals are paying a broken down, awful pitcher $9 million instead of having money freed up to sign a stud.  Feel free to remind me of this tirade then.  At this point, under the circumstances, Moore has added two arms better than what they had before.  I believe the market on free agent pitching is about to quickly explode and the Royals may end up with a couple of bargains.  Hopefully they will get the performances they are hoping for.  It seems the Murphy’s Law rules at Kaufman.  Eventually, there has to be a turning point for this organization.  Let’s hope it is 2013 and let’s try being less negative and more realistic.

Thanks for reading and have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving Day and weekend.

2012 Royal Wrap-Up

Another extremely disappointing baseball season is now behind us and I have some post season thoughts I would like to share.

I have always been a Kevin Seitzer fan.  I was happy when he was hired and for a certain kind of team, he is a terrific hitting coach.  If you have a young, untalented team with no power, Seitzer’s philosophy of middle-to-opposite field hitting is a sound hitting theory.  When you have a team of young, talented guys with very nice power upsides, it’s not that great.  Under Seitzer, Kansas City has been in the top four in the AL in batting average the last three years.  They have also been in the top half in doubles the last 3 years (top three in 2011 and 2012).  Unfortunately, the Royals have also been toward the bottom of the AL in runs scored (except for 2011 when they finished 6^th) and home runs.  Seitzer had success with guys like Escobar and Getz, and he deserves some credit for turning Alex Gordon in the right direction.  He had a lot less success with guys with bigger swings, like Hosmer, Moustakas, and Franceour.  I don’t count Billy Butler because I have a feeling Country Breakfast is pretty much his own hitting instructor.  I like Seitzer but I agree the Royals need to go a different direction with the personnel on this team.

On October 3^rd, Rany Jazayerli broke down the Royals long history of avoiding walks on offense on his excellent blog http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/.  I could not agree with him any more that this is a problem that needs to be fixed organizationally. 

Billy Butler should now be considered one of the top right handed hitters in the AL right now.  His .313/.373/.510 averages slash line is outstanding and he threw in 29 HR and 107 RBI just for kicks.  He is now truly a middle of the line-up hitter in a potentially potent line-up.  Butler is just 26 years old with a .300 career average, and already has over 3500 AB, over 100 HR, over 200 doubles, and almost 500 RBI.  His best years are quite possibly still ahead of him.

The Royals are filled with exciting, under-30, budding stars.  None are more exciting to watch than Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar.  Both were much better than expected on offense and both are as fun to watch on defense as any players at their positions in all of baseball.  Both are signed long term so I am thrilled at the prospect of watching them on a daily basis for many years to come.

Speaking of terrific defensive play, Alex Gordon has solidified himself as maybe the best defensive left fielder in all of baseball.  This link, http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/10/4/3452656/the-most-valuable-royal, provides some sources if anyone watching didn’t believe what their eyes were telling you.  Also, Mike Moustakas is a MUCH better defensive player than anyone thought he would be.  He has good hands and a rifle for an arm. 

If the Royals are going to contend soon, youngsters Hosmer and Moustakas MUST take big steps forward in 2013.  A lot of the immediate future of the Kansas City Royals is tied up with these two guys. 

Do you know what team holds the record for most strikeouts from a bullpen in a season?  Well, it is the 2012 Kansas City Royals with 535.  What an impressive effort by a very young group of relief pitchers. 

I will disbelieve any thought that the Royals are serious about winning if they do not cut Luke Hochevar.  He is awful and has been for many years now.  I cannot bear the thought of him in a Royals uniform next season.

It will be a very interesting off season this year as we will see just how hard the Royals pursue starting pitching.  Free agent aces will seldom, if ever, sign with small market teams.  Those small market teams just can’t afford to compete with the big boys in offering big, long contracts to pitchers.  Small market teams just cannot take the same chances on these contracts as the Yankees, or Red Sox, or Dodgers can.  It is a fact.  That doesn’t mean Kansas City can’t make serious runs at pitchers who would slot in as number two or three starters.  If they could somehow add two number 2 starters, I would be ecstatic. 

Finally, Royals fans took a bit of grief nationally for relentlessly riding Robinson Cano during the All-Star festivities.  I had absolutely zero problems with the fans for letting Cano know they were displeased with him for not picking Billy Butler for the Home Run Derby.  Cano twice stated he would, then didn’t.  He should be accountable for lying to fans.  In a great story, these same fans, on the last day of the season, robustly cheered rival Miguel Cabrera when he officially won the first Triple Crown in 45 years.  Royals fans cheered the Detroit Tiger long and loud enough that Miggy gave them a curtain call in appreciation, also recognizing the tribute the Royals players and staff also paid him by their applause as well.  Cabrera was sincerely appreciative of the ovation.  It was a touching moment all around.  Royals’ owner, discount king David Glass, should need little more proof how hungry local fans are for something to cheer about.  Kansas City was a great baseball town at one time, before David Glass squeezed out all hope.  These fans deserve better. 

An a related topic, I have a hard time listening and reading to all of the debate around the MVP.  Miguel Cabrera won the first Triple Crown since 1967.  There is a reason it hasn’t been done in 45 years.  Poo-poo the Triple Crown categories all you want.  It is still an amazing accomplishment for the offensive leader of a divisional winner and for there even to be an argument is just plain silly.  I love stats as much as anyone; I get in what ways Trout had a great, historic season, but SO DID MIGUEL CABRERA!!!  He has been one of the most consistent run producers in recent years and was a total team players, switching positions with little or no complaint (unlike a certain former Marlin), and playing better than expected.  Please put this argument to bed and just give Miggy the MVP trophy. 

Thanks for reading.

TIRED OF CHEATERS

Man, I am getting sick and tired of cheaters.  The latest player to draw a 50-game suspension from MLB is none other than the All Star MVP, the Giants' Melky Cabrera.  The Melkman was suspended today for testing positive for testosterone.  Cabrera did not even deny the results and will not fight the decision.  He did offer an apologize.  Well, forgive me if I do not accept.

Melky Cabrera had a terrific all around season for the Kansas City Royals in 2011.  He amassed 201 hits on his way to a .305 average, 18 HR, 20 SB, and 87 RBI.  He hustled and played with intensity.  While has wasn't a great defensive center fielder, he was more than adequate.  He turned down a 2-year, 11 million dollar contract extension from the Royals and they traded him to the Giants for the horrifically awful Jonathan Sanchez.  I thought it was a good trade at the time because the Royals had Lorenzo Cain knocking on the door to play center field and were in dire need of a starting pitcher.

The trade couldn't have been worse for the Royals.  Sanchez may have evolved into the worst starting pitcher in the majors and Cabrera has been MVP-like.  The Melkman leads the majors in hits and runs scored.  He is hitting .346 and has an OPS of over .900.  He won the MVP in the year's summer classic while his former hometown fans in Kansas City cheered him.

Today, I found out he is a dirty, rotten, PED-taking cheater.

This make me sad but worse, it makes me mad as hell!  I am sick and tired of cheating in baseball.  I am pissed off that players still are trying to cheapen the game I love.  How many more times are we, as fans, going to have to go through these trials and tribulations.  I am so disappointed in Melky Cabrera.  Sadly, I will never be a Melky fan again and I will never trust another number he posts, whether or not he ever tests positive for PEDs again.  I am glad he is no longer a Royal but his accomplishments and contributions from his lone season in Kansas City have been considerably diminished.

When will these players, making hundreds of thousands at the least, and many, many millions at the most, learn that we the fans will no longer endure cheaters.  While the testing seems to be helping to a certain extent, how many are still cheating and not getting caught?  There is no way know and that dims the game, in my opinion.  All I can do is hope no other players test positive, a faint hope indeed.  I am tired that the reputations of players I like and enjoy watching continue to tarnish the game by cheating.  I am ready for baseball to be cleaned up once and for all - I just don't think that will ever happen again.  I am sad...and pissed as hell about that.

All Star Ponderings

Keep in mind as you read this that I am a life long Royals fan.  I grew up in the heyday of the 70s and 80s.  I have suffered through some of the worst team managements in the history of sports.  Despite the last quarter of a century, I still love my team and the city and area it represents.  I want my team and Kansas City to be shown in the best light possible.

As far as the process of how the All Star teams are selected, I don’t have much issue in general.  I think more thought could be put into the whole process of picking the reserves, though.  There is too much chance for selfishness.  I will hold up Ron Washington as an example of this.  I like Washington.  It can be conceded he has been good in his tenure as manager of the Rangers.  I do have a problem though with his selection of Elvis Andrus to this team.  It is not that I think Andrus is undeserving.  It is the fact that Washington added Andrus as the seventh Ranger on the team (Yu Darvish was added as the 8^th Ranger later).  For the first time in many years, the Royals had more than one legitimate candidate for this exhibition.  With the game in Kansas City, Alcides Escobar should have been selected in addition to the Royals’ best player, Billy Butler.  Escobar, the leading hitting shortstop in the majors, would not have been a pity pick.  Escobar, and the hometown Royals, deserved more than just Butler, who will probably get one pinch hit at-bat.  The Royals fans deserved more and the Rangers were already over represented as it was.

Then there is the case of Robinson Cano.  Some writers have complained about the childishness of the Kansas City fans in their relentless booing of Cano and their glee in his utter failure during the Home Run Derby.  The fans were irritated because Cano failed to select Butler for the derby.  They booed him because he said he would select Butler.  I personally heard an interview with John Kruk and Cano and the Yankee said as much.  Then he did not pick Butler.  He has since told at least two different stories on why he didn’t.  The fans booed him because he flat out lied.  Period.  He lied and has made excuses.  The derby is supposedly strictly about the fans.  Cano and MLB have proved otherwise.  The fans booed as a way to show their displeasure and that is their absolute right.  Shame on those who fail to understand that.

The Royals fans showed their class by warmly welcoming former Royals, Carlos Beltran and Melky Cabrera.  The fans appreciated their efforts on behalf of the organization and are happy for their successes.  The Kansas City natives were very warm in their greeting of Chipper Jones, playing his first ands last game in Kaufman Stadium.  The fans aren’t classless, just frustrated at the lack of things to cheer about and the lack of respect shown them by those who made decisions concerning the All Star selections.   There should be some consideration to the home team every year when it comes to the rosters and derby.  It would cost the league nothing and would mean everything to the home fans.

Check out my tv and movie reviews at jawsrecliner.com and get twitter updates @jawsrecliner

ROYAL CANDIDATES

It is sign that the process is finally starting to show results.  Dayton Moore has verbally pounded us for six years, telling us to be patient.  If Royals stick to the process, eventually the process will net real results on the field.  Finally, we are seeing those results.  For the first time in many, many years, the Kansas City Royals have some actual, real, legitimate candidates for the Major League Baseball All Star game in Kaufman Stadium on July 10^th. 

The most deserving Royal, taking positions into account, in my opinion, is Mike Moustakas.  The 22-year old has been a consistent producer at the plate all season and his defense has been much better than anticipated.  Moose has 13 home runs, over 60 runs produced, and a .842 OPS.  Moustakas is in the top 5 among AL third basemen in numerous offensive categories.  The biggest problem for Moose is that there are two of the best offensive players in the American League playing third base.  Either Adrian Beltre or Miguel Cabrera will certainly be voted in as a starter and the other is certainly deserving of an all star roster spot.  Will Ron Washington choose to go with 3 players from the hot corner?  Royals fans have to hope so because that may be Moustakas’ only chance to make the team.

The second most deserving Royal is DH Billy Butler.  Unfortunately for Country Breakfast, David Ortiz is going to be the AL’s starting DH for the Midsummer Classic (on a side note, the Red Sox don’t deserve to send more players than Ortiz to the game).  On top of Ortiz being a lock, Chicago’s Adam Dunn has bounced back with 24 home runs in 2012 and could gain a manager’s selection and Toronto’s Edwin Encarnacion has had a terrific year for the Blue Jays.  Either of the players could snag the back up DH spot on the All Star roster.  Butler has 15 dingers, nearly 60 runs produced, and he sports a .868 OPS.  Butler is deserving but may lose out to either Dunn or Encarnacion.

This leaves shortstop Alcides Escobar.  Escobar is a spectacular fielder and this year he has added a valuable bat to his repertoire.  He is hitting a surprising .315 with 12 steals.  He only has 2 home runs but add in 2 triples and 19 doubles to complete his All Star resume.  Outside Derek Jeter, no shortstop has had a better all around season than Escobar.  It is because of this lack of league wide position depth that leads me to believe Escobar may be able to sneak onto the roster. 

A case could also be made for Tim Collins but for the first time in a long, long time, Kansas City has legitimate choices at several positions.  Usually, teams who have to be represented by someone and have few candidates end up sending their best bullpen performer.  This is the position the Royals have been in for years.  Maybe this year, we will get to see more than one Royal in the All Star game.  It would be a great reward for all of us fans who have suffered through all the losing.  Hopefully on July 10^th, there will be couple of boys in blue representing the Royals in Kaufman Stadium.

Before closing out, it is an interesting note that Billy Butler has publicly mentioned his desire to participate in the Home Run Derby.  Because of the Yankees and Rangers filling out a majority of starting spots, there may be a trickle down effect for players like Moustakas, Butler, and Escobar.  This situation could curtail any chances they had at being selected.  A solution may be to reward Billy Butler with a spot in the Derby instead.  As a Royal fan, this would be a great reward to have our home town guy on the spotlight.  

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Savior at Shortstop

There some local bloggers in the Kansas City area who refer to the Royals shortstop Alcides Escobar as the Shortstop Jesus.  This comes from a loyal but perennially disappointed fan base that has endured a quarter of a century of failure and more of our fair share of terrible shortstops.  Sure, the Royals have briefly ran out guys like Rey Sanchez, Greg Gagne, Fred Patek, and Jay Bell out for a season or two but they have also paid good money to the likes of Yuniesky Betancourt, Neifi Perez, Angel Berroa, Onix Conception, and Tony Pena, Jr.

While I can’t remember every stiff to don the Royals uniform and play shortstop, I have seen them all since Freddie Patek in the 70’s.  I cannot remember any as spectacular as Alcides Escobar.  None have been as fun to watch on an everyday basis as Escobar.  None has combined the glove, range, and arm that Escobar possesses.  Some have been terrific at making the routine plays and some could make the highlight reel plays.  Escobar does both on a day in and day out basis.  One of the joys in watching the Royals every night the past season plus is that there is a good chance I am going to see something awesome from the shortstop position.

Escobar came to the Royals via the Milwaukee Brewers in the Zack Greinke before the 2011 season.  Escobar had a reputation as a slick fielder but his 2010 numbers were less than impressive.  He committed 26 errors in 711 chances in 2009 and 2010 for the Brewers, 20 of these came in only 552 chances in 2010, indicating he was a bit raw.  Since coming to the Royals, he has committed only 18 errors in 929 chances and only three of those have been fielding errors.  Read that again – he has made only 3 fielding errors in 929 chances and 190 games.  These numbers are not diluted by a lack of range because this dude has the best range of any shortstop I have ever seen and he has the arm to turn that incredible range into outs.

At the beginning of the 2011 season, Escobar struggled at the plate.  Through the first few days of June, he was hitting down in the Eric Hosmer .200 range.  He caught fire in June and raised his average up to the .250 range and he was able to maintain that average pretty much through the rest of the season, finishing at .254.  The funny thing was that even when he was hovering around .200 for two months, no one cared.  He was so much better with the glove than what Kansas City fans were used to, we didn’t care what he hit.  In this era of baseball, offense is king so it is very difficult to impress with the glove so much that no one really gives a hoot how a player hits.

Going into tonight’s game in Baltimore, Alcides Escobar is hitting .305 in 2012.  Three errors and a .305 average?  Are you kidding me?  He only has one home run and one triple but he leads the team in doubles with 13.  Keep in mind that the Royals are a team of double hitting fools.  To lead in that category is an accomplishment.  Throw in 7 steals in 8 chances and you are looking at a legitimate All Star candidate.  This all being said, I do not expect Escobar to maintain that lofty average.  He is an absolute free swinger with only 6 walks this season but he doesn’t strikeout at a crazy rate.  He maintains an excellent contact rate at 85% so he does put wood to ball when he swings.  He is enjoying an unsustainable batting average on balls in play of .354.  That will come down and so will his average.  When you consider his defense though, however long he hits like he is, his average is pure gravy. 

I would really like to see the Royals to go one a run in June and for more than the obvious reasons.  I would love to see the Royals get more than the one All Star roster spot.  It will be decades before the summer classic returns to Kansas City so it would be great for all of us long suffering fans to get a couple of hometown players in the game.  It’s hard to give a bad team two spots unless they earn them but the Royals have some guys who are earning those spots.  Billy Butler is having a terrific year and with the DH this year, he is the leading candidate to represent the Royals but there are some other guys who are worthy.  Mike Moustakus has had a good year at the plate and has been much better than anyone ever expected with his glove work at third.  A couple of the bullpen guys have been terrific.  And, of course, there is Alcides Escobar.  Derek Jeter will be the AL starter at shortstop and rightfully so but I don’t think any other shortstop is more worthy right now than Escobar.  If he can keep his average around .275 and continues his splendid defense, Alcides should get the nod.  No other shortstop outside of New York is having a comparable well rounded season. 

Despite all the frustrations in watching the Kansas City Royals, Alcides Escobar isn’t one of them.  He makes watching the games a joy and I have become a great fan.  I look forward to many more years watching this guy and I am excited about that.

Special thanks to baseball-reference.com and BaseballHQ.com for their excellent stat work.

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Kansas City Fool's Gold

When have we seen enough?  How many times can a pitcher utterly fail?  How many times will a team run a guy out and leave your team with little chance of winning?  I guess if you run a small market baseball team and drafted a guy first overall, the answer is indefinitely.

Luke Hochevar has over 600 career innings and over 100 career starts.  Not counting 4 appearances in 2007, Hochevar is in his fifth full season.  His lowest ERA is 4.68 and only once has his WHIP been below 1.427.  Because of a nice second half last season, he had a career low WHIP of 1.283.  It turned out to be fool’s gold.

He looked to have finally turned a corner last season.  In the second half, he turned in a respectable 3.52 ERA, 1.134 WHIP, and 7.7 K/9ip.  Expectations were high in 2012 for the former number one overall draft pick.  Fantasy experts were listing him as a big sleeper and the Royals were looking for him to prove that their infinite patience in him was justified.  Many, including myself, really thought maybe the light bulb had finally clicked on.  Unfortunately, it had not.

In six starts, Hochevar has only thrown 28 innings and is supporting a downright ugly 9.00 ERA.  In the past, he has shown a penchant for looking brilliant for 3, 4 , sometimes 5 innings then he just loses it completely, allowing fists full of runs.  This year, those innings have been early in the game, crippling the bullpen.  He hasn’t been walking an inordinate number of batters but has been getting hammered.  He has allowed 39 hits in 28 innings.  He is pounding the middle of the strike zone, never an ideal place to be against major league batters.  Check out this graph of his pitch location from texasleaguers.com.

Note the cluster of strikes in what is the general wheelhouse of most big leagues.  Throwing strikes is great but you can’t just throw it down the middle.  If a guy hasn’t learned this little tidbit after 600 innings, I doubt he will ever will.

So, what should the Royals do with this albatross?  Kansas City suffers from a horrible lack of even mediocre depth in their rotation.  Now, with Jonathan Sanchez (another apparent mistake and another article all together) on the DL, it appears the Royals won’t be able to do anything with Hochevar until Sanchez returns, and even then it is doubtful KC can come up with another starter.  Fourteen months ago, the Royals had 5 top pitching prospects but only Danny Duffy has really started to pitch to his potential.  There is no immediate help in the minors.  I would suggest that as soon as Sanchez comes back, they should send Aaron Crow to AAA and begin to stretch him out a bit.  Let him rejoin the club when he as built up some stamina and push Hochevar to the pen.  Hochevar has shown superlative stuff in the past, albeit in small doses.  He wouldn’t be the first pitcher ever to go to the bullpen and discover how to pitch.  Maybe he can learn to at least be a decent contributor to the team.

Who knows if the Royals will do anything in the near future.  Maybe Hochevar can turn it around in his next few starts.  Again, anyone, including Dayton Moore, who believes that will happen, is just fooling himself.  I don’t think I would ever trust him to be a reliable cog for my team again.  Considering the Royals ran Kyle Davies out to the mound for several years doesn’t lead me to believe they will do anything with Hochevar either.  If nothing else, the Royals have proved to be slow learners themselves. 

My thanks to baseball-reference.com and texasleaguers.com for their stats and pitch data.

365 Days of Eric Hosmer

It was a year ago today Eric Hosmer made his major league debut with the Kansas City Royals after demolishing AAA hitting in April to the tune of a .439 average and an 1.107 OPS.  The hopes and dreams of beleaguered Royals fans rested on the shoulders of this heralded young slugger.  There have been plenty of glimpses of stardom but the one year results are mixed.

Overall, the stats for Hosmer’s first full year are very promising.  Most of these stats were accumulated before Eric’s 22^nd birthday.  In 627 AB, Hosmer has 24 home runs, 80 runs, and 93 RBI.  He has a solid, if unspectacular, .276 average, a lower than ideal .323 OBP, a respectable .451 SLG, and a slightly disappointing .774 OPS.  30 doubles, 4 triples, and 12 stolen bases are all promising numbers.

Of course, these numbers are all skewed downward by a frustratingly unlucky first month of the 2012 season.  Hosmer is only hitting .192 with an anemic .654 OPS.  Hosmer has been plagued by a horrific bating average on balls in play (BABIP).  The league average is usually around .300 but Hosmer is only hitting .179 BABIP.  This is unsustainably terrible.  All of his skills indicators are intact.  His walk rate is 10% and his contact rate is 86%.  Both of these numbers are above average and indicate that he is being patient and making good contact.  The biggest problem is that his ground ball rate is way too high at 48%.  He needs to get more line drives (18%) and fly balls (34%).  His home run rate on fly ball is healthy at 17%.  I watch the Royals nearly every day and I feel like Hosmer is on the brink of going nuts on opposing pitchers.  He is hitting rockets and line drives all over the field that are all getting caught.  Defenders are making great plays on his hard hit balls every day.  It is only a matter of time before those balls start falling and then watch out!

The exciting thing about Hosmer is that as bad as his first month of 2012 has been, his total numbers in his first full year are still outstanding for a player who will still be 22 years old at the end of the season.  Last season, Hosmer show the ability to adjust to pitchers’ adjustments to him.  He is not being overwhelmed at the plate.  He is still hitting to all fields, just into bad luck.  I have not heard or read anything about the Royals thinking he needs to go to the minors to work out his swing.  Again, it is more about luck than the way Hosmer is swinging the bat.

I have seen little in the stats and data and even less in my observations of Eric Hosmer to have soured on him even a little.  I still firmly believe he will be a star for the Kansas City Royals, a stalwart in the middle of their line up who is a big run producer.  Even during this season long slump, Hosmer has still produced 24 runs and that is an excellent sign (Albert Pujols only has 14).  His first full season numbers for home runs, runs scored, and RBI all point to a kid who is on the verge of something special and I am excited to be able to watch this kid play every day.

Thanks to baseball-reference.com and baseballhq.com for their excellent statistics and skill indicators.

Get more small market baseball news at bigbrotherbaseballproject.blogspot.com and get movie and TV reviews at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com.  Follow me on twitter @jawsrecliner

The Most Under-Appreciated Royal

George Brett is undeniably the greatest hitter in the history of the Kansas City Royals.  Brett accumulated 3,154 hits, 665 doubles, 137 triples (yeah, you read that right), and 317 home runs.  He had 1,583 runs, 1596 rbi, and a .305 average on route to a first ballot Hall of Fame career.  As far as the Royals are concerned, no player is even close and I think Brett would be listed on most lists as a top 3 all-time third baseman, even though he played a lot of games at first and DH. 

The Royals have a hitter on their team right now that compares favorable to Brett at the same age.  No, it’s not phenom Eric Hosmer.  No, it’s not emerging Alex Gordon.  It is the veteran Billy Butler.  It seems like Billy “Country Breakfast” Butler has been around forever but did you know Butler just celebrated his 26^th birthday less than two weeks ago?  He has amassed some really impressive statistics at a very young age. 

George Brett basically got started a year earlier than Butler.  Butler got 390 AB at the age of 21 while Brett received 41 AB at 20 and 486 AB at 21 years of age.  For comparative purposes, I am going by games.  Brett had 731 games by the end of 1978, when he was 25.  Butler has 712 games through 04/28/2012, after just turning 26.  There isn’t that much difference in age between these two hitters after a similar number of games played

Brett had 3114 PA to Butlers 2947 at this stage.  Brett had an amazing 2850 AB with 870 hits.  He had led the AL in both of those categories twice by the time he was 24 years old.  Billy has 2653 AB and 789 hits.  Brett’s average in that time was .305 (a match for his career) and Butler is hitting .297.  The biggest thing that these numbers illustrate is that in his early 20’s, George Brett was already a hitting star.  We all know he was playing on a great team, one that won 3 division titles during this time.  Butler has been in the middle of the lineup for some of the worst teams in the majors so far in his career. 

If you delve deeper though, Butler compares even more favorably in some of the other stats.  Butler has 191 doubles to Brett’s 169.  Keep in mind that George Brett is 6^th all time in doubles.  Butler has been criticized that he doesn’t hit for power, yet he has out homered Brett during this stretch 79 to 51.  In fact, Butler has more extra base hits than Brett during these similar periods of their careers, 279 to 273.  This is despite the fact that Brett already had an incredible 53 triples by the end of 1978. 

(An interesting side note – George Brett ranks 67^th in triples with 137.  Of players who played in a significant number of games after 1970, only Lou Brock and teammate Willie Wilson hit more triples than Brett.  I think this is one of the more amazing stats of Brett’s career because he only stole 201 bases – he was not known as a speedster at all.)

As I mentioned before, Brett was in the middle of a terrific lineup and he scored 413 runs in those early years while Butler is quite a bit behind him with 321.  Butler is as slow on the base paths as any player you will see, plus Brett hit himself into scoring position a lot more with all of those triples.  This being said, Butler has more RBI through this point in their careers, 389 to 354, and impressive stat for Butler. 

I am not saying that Billy Butler is the player George Brett was.  Brett played in a much different era, on a much different team.  Butler will be forever cursed by the reality that he is a DH.  My point to this exercise is that Royals fans have been slow to embrace Butler as a favorite.  I think this is a mistake.  Butler is a consummate hitter and the ultimate leader of the Royals youth movement.  Butler is a very similar type of hitter to Brett.  His home run power will eventually develop, just like Brett’s did.  Even so, just like Brett’s, Butler’s power will probably top out around 30.  Butler will obviously never hit the triples King George did but his doubles’ numbers could be comparable.  The terrific stat site baseball-reference.com, has a great feature where they break down players careers into 162 game averages.  This is a good tool for comparative purposes.  Taking a close look at this, George Brett does have a slight edge over Butler in nearly every category.  That advantage though, is slight. 

George Brett was a first ballot Hall of Famer who received over 90% votes on that first ballot.  It is doubtful that Butler will play into his 40’s but I will tell you something.  As long as Butler continues to hit like a poor man’s George Brett, I want him penciled in my lineup everyday at DH.  Fans need to start appreciating Billy Butler.  The man can hit.

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A Disastrous Start

I know, I know.  There are still a lot of games before we even get out of April.  I know there shouldn’t be any panic yet.  I know it’s a long season.  I also know the Kansas City Royals have gotten off to a disastrous start to the 2012 season.

Kansas City was filled with hope this spring.  A franchise that has struggled with ineptitude on and off the playing field looked to finally be turning a corner.  While few expected the Royals to challenge the divisional powerhouse Detroit Tigers, many believed the hometown team would actually field a competitive squad and maybe work themselves into the top 2 or 3 in the AL Central.  While this is certainly still a possibility, it is looking less and less likely.

The Royals began the season stocked with home grown talent well respected by other organizations.  The youth on offense seemed poise for a step forward in development.  The bullpen was well stocked with live arms and terrific talent.  The rotation was still the weak spot but even that bunch seemed hopeful of improvement. 

Things are not working out.  Optimism was still high after the Royals started the season with a successful 3-3 road trip through Los Angeles and Oakland.  A closer look though, gave plenty of warning of the disastrous things ahead.  All three of the Royals’ losses were bad ones.  On opening day against the Angels, it was a 0-0 ball game in the 8^th when the bullpen melted down and allowed 5 runs.  The offense remained dormant and was shut out.  The offense sparked to life over the next 2 games and the weak rotation held strong and Kansas City survived the talented Angels by taking the series 2-1.

In game four in Oakland, The Royals fielded a weak offensive line-up and were shut out again.  Worse yet, they had three base runners thrown out on the base paths, locking up the 0-1 loss.  Young Danny Duffy was brilliant in the next game and the Royals’ staff put up the first shut out of their own.  In the final game of the west coast trip, things flew apart.  After scratching out a 4-3 lead in the 12^th inning, closer Jonathan Broxton got the first out in the bottom of the 12^th then defensive wizard Alcides Escobar booted a grounder, Broxton walked the next two batters, then inexplicably hit the next two hitters on consecutive pitches and the Royals fell hard, 4-5, allowing 2 runs on no hits.

Kansas City promptly returned home to the excited fans in Kaufman Stadium, where the Royals promptly lost each of the seven games they have played in their home stadium.  Nothing has gone right.  The rotation has imploded, the offense stalled, and the bullpen has failed time and time again.  Everything has piled up against the snake bitten team, everything from bad defense, bad base running, bad starting pitching, no clutch hitting, a bullpen incapable of closing out, and in some instances, just some plain old bad luck.  It has been as frustrating stretch of games as any ever for an organization that has been awful for two and a half decades. 

The Royals claim there is no panic but it is there.  Kansas City dug a deep hole that is much worse than even the 3-10 would indicate.  KC has to win 14 of their next 21 home games just to get back to .500 at home – a stretch that would take them well into June.  What are the chances they can play .667 at home over the next month and a half, with nearly half of those games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and D-Backs?  It is not looking good.  The Royals have already played 7 of their games against teams they hoped to be either better than or at the very least, even with.  They are 1-6 in those games against Oakland, Cleveland, and Toronto so far. 

Very few of the Royals have stood out on an individual basis.  Bruce Chen, Danny Duffy, and Billy Butler have performed well but no one else has excited fans on a regular basis thus far.  There has been little consistency unless it is the bad kind.  For this team to turn it around, several players need to step forward and perform well.  Numerous guys need to take a giant step forward in their development if anything positive can be saved this season.  This can all happen but the likelihood becomes more remote with each horrible outing.  Maybe the Kansas City Royals can start their turnaround tonight.

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Opening Day Royal Predictions

Making predictions before the season starts is kind of a worthless endeavor but as baseball fans, it sure is fun.  We will quickly forget those predictions on which we missed the target and humbly claim expertise on those which prove correct.  Hey, we all do it, so today, I’m going to have some fun and throw my darts.  I will take a look at the Royals and make my predictions for their season. This will give you a little idea what to look for in 2012.

CATCHER – The Royals will live with the Humberto Quintero/Brayan Pena platoon for a couple of months.  I think the estimation of Salvador Perez’s return not being until late June is conservative.  I look for him to return in late May or early June.  Whichever catcher maintains his roster spot when Perez returns may get a few games as Salvador works himself back into the lineup but will see little action late in the season.

1B – Eric Hosmer will be a star eventually.  While I think he will make strides in that direction, he won’t make it this season.  He will approach .300 and I expect about 22 Home Runs.  His defense, which graded out poorly last season, will be much improved this year.  Consider him a very good player who gains much needed experience in 2012.

2B – The Royals will finally realize that grit does not win baseball games and finally get rid of Chris Getz.  This decision will be quickened by Johnny Giavotella, who again tears up AAA pitching.  Gio will make a return to the Royals in late May and will hit around .260 with some pop.  I am scared Getz will again fail and instead of bringing up Giavotella, the Royals will make Yuniesky Betancourt the everyday second baseman.  Yuck!!!

3B – Mike “Moose” Moustakus will actually become an above average 3-bagger.  He will not hit for the average Hosmer will but could actually develop more power.  Moose will push his average up to around .275 and will push toward 25 HR.  He won’t be as consistent as Hosmer either, but will offer good power in 2012.

SS – Alcides Escobar will continue making watching defense fun.  This dude is spectacular.  Hitting Coach Kevin Seitzer will continue to mold Escobar into a solid line drive hitter.  .265 with 30 steals at the bottom of the order will spark the offense.

LF – Alex Gordon just inked a nice contract and will continue to be a fan favorite.  I look for his average to drop toward the .280 range and for his home runs to peak over the topside of 20.  He will continue to lead off and will prove his Gold Glove was no fluke.

CF – Lorenzo Cain will turn into a solid starting center fielder this season.  His speed and glove will make us forget the Melk Man, even if his bat doesn’t match Melky’s breakout 2011 season.  Manager Ned Yost loves to run, so Cain may steal 25 bases.  Fifteen dingers and a .275 average would satisfy me.

RF – Jeff Francoeur will settle into the player he was a year ago.  He will never be a star but 20 homers and 15 steals is pretty solid.  Frenchy seems to love working with Kevin Seitzer and has learned to spray the ball, improving his average.  Frenchy will always take his hacks but is a little more under control now.  His incredible arm makes up for Francoeur being a little over rated defensively but he is still above average in right.

DH – I think Billy Butler will become a star in 2012.  Country Breakfast can flat out hit and he is being driven by improved offensive players around him.  Butler will finally realize his power and turn some of those doubles into round trippers.  .300/28/110 is a realistic line for Butler and I will stand by that prediction.

The Bullpen – Joakim Soria is gone for the year (maybe for good as the Royals will never pick up an $8 million option).  Jonathan Broxton was named the closer last night but he has yet to go in back-to-back games and has a history of injuries.  I think Greg Holland may eventually take the job and become very successful because he has the stuff and mentality to succeed as the closer.  Either way, they are an impressive 1-2 punch late in the game.  A guy to watch is Kelvin Herrera.  This kid has eye popping stuff and will probably serve ass the 7^th inning guy.  He will pile up strikeouts as he toils in anonymity in KC.  This group is a strength and will continue to excel.

(*Note – In all honesty, I wrote this yesterday and predicted Holland would be named closer and would not relinquish the job.  Technically, I am already 0 for 1.)

The Rotation – Better known as the “reason the Royals don’t have a chance to win the AL Central”.  This being said, I do not think it will be as bad as people think.  Luke Hochevar is on the brink of a breakout season.  Jonathan Sanchez is a K machine.  Danny Duffy will be inconsistent but will take a giant step forward.  Bruce Chen will be solid if not woefully unspectacular but he won’t match his 2011 numbers.  I have a hard time believing Luis Mendoza will fool major league hitters on a regular basis (hope I’m wrong).  The biggest wild card here will be what happens when Felipe Paulino returns from the DL.  My prediction is he will go to the bullpen until Mendoza starts getting pummeled and will again look good as a starter.  As the season progresses, with its inevitable injuries and poor performances, youngsters Mike Montgomery (if he can somehow find a way to manage the strike zone) and Jake Odorizzi could make late season appearances. 

Overall – I think the AL Central is a weak division with one elite team in the Tigers.  The other four teams are trying to rebuild to some extent.  I predict that the Royals’ young offense and slightly improved rotation will be enough for Kansas City to take second place in the division, edging out Cleveland and Chicago.  Too much has to go right for KC to win more than half their games but I am going to predict 80 wins for the Royals in 2012.  With the emergence of Butler, Hosmer, Gordon, and Moustakus, the Royals will be an offensive force but their rotation will continue not to scare anyone.

Billy Butler is my pick for the Royal Player of the Year and Luke Hochevar as the Pitcher of the Year.

There you go.  After the season is over, I will only recognize those predictions in which I was somewhat close.  

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