2011 MLB Predictions

Preseason predictions are worthless and meaningless, so why does everyone do them?  Because they’re fun, that’s why!  Plus, on the rare occasion we are actually right, we can proclaim a degree of (usually self-proclaimed) expertise by trumpeting our prognostic feats to the world.  Of course, we are deadly silent on the majority of the picks we miss on and we hope no one remembers. That’s the good part, since few people, if any, are even paying attention to us so no one even notices or cares when we are wrong.  It’s a win-win exercise.  So here we go with my all-seeing, crystal ball predictions for the 2011 season.

AL East

1)      Boston Red Sox.  Awesome offense, good defense, and a solid, deep staff make the Sox the favorite.  A recent history of injuries at key positions is worrisome.

2)      New York Yankees.  The Bombers are loaded offensively and boast a great back end of the bullpen.  They survive a shallow rotation because Ivan Nova is better than expected.

3)      Baltimore Orioles.  Improved offense will play for the big inning and the young staff will improve as the season progresses.

4)      Tampa Bay Rays.  A bullpen loaded with former Royals is not a good thing.  Longoria can’t carry the depleted offense by himself.  Young starters take big steps forward.

5)      Toronto Blue Jays.  The Jays are a much improved team but they play in the wrong division.  Bautista will not match last year’s number, but has his second best season.

AL Central

1)      Chicago White Sox.  There are few holes on this team.  A deep rotation and good talent at nearly every offensive position will make medium to long losing streaks obsolete.  Can Thornton be the closer?

2)      Minnesota Twins.  Questions about the health of Morneau and Mauer keep the Twins out of first.  The rotation is average at best.  Fundamentals will keep them close.

3)      Detroit Tigers.  Age and health at some key positions concern me.  Verlander and Cabrera are certified studs and could carry the Tigers into contention.

4)      Kansas City Royals.  The offense will be better than expected but rotation could be historically bad.  The back of the bullpen is as good as any.

5)      Cleveland Indians.  The underrated Choo is the sole star on this team.  It won’t be enough.  There is little to like in the rotation.

AL West

1)      Oakland A’s.  Surprised?  I like this pitching staff, from top to bottom, as well as any in the AL.  Gio Gonzalez is on the brink of studdom.  A solid, if unspectacular, offense will score enough.

2)      Texas Rangers.  They battle until the end but are let down by a weak rotation.  Offense will continue to bang but will Hamilton get enough at bats to defend his MVP?

3)      Los Angeles Angels.  The bunch from Anaheim keeps this the tightest race in baseball but things don’t go the Angels’ way for most of the season.  Injuries and underachievement will be the story in LA.

4)      Seattle Mariners.  King Felix and Ichiro cannot prevent the Mariners from being the worst team in baseball.

Postseason

The Yankees win the wild card but Boston wins the AL title.

Awards

Cy Young – C.C. Sabathia

MVP – Adrian Gonzalez

ROY – Zach Britton

NL East

1)      Atlanta Braves.  The Braves have a terrific mix of top tier youth and wily, solid veterans.  The veterans keep the kids focused and they outlast the Phillies.

2)      Philadelphia Phillies.  Age and injuries are a factor throughout the season and this awesome rotation cannot overcome these issues to win the division.  With these starters, the Phillies are never out of it.

3)      Florida Marlins.  The Marlins feature a solid rotation and nice youth in the field.  They are a ways from the top two in this division and their pitching separates them from the bottom two.

4)      Washington Nationals.  This is an up and coming team but their rotation will hold them back.  It just will not hold up for the whole season.

5)      New York Mets.  The Mets have become the graveyard for careers.  It has been a while since much has gone right for this organization and nothing changes in 2011.

NL Central

1)      Milwaukee Brewers.  It is all on the line for the Brew Crew.  They have a one year window for success.  They respond by winning the division.  Very good pitching, combined with a nicely balanced offense, is a great combo.  I am worried about the bullpen, though.

2)      Cincinnati Reds.  There is nothing wrong with the Reds except it will be the Brewers’ year.  If the Brew Crew bullpen falters, look for a very solid Cincinnati team to fill the breach.  They are built to be good for a few years.

3)      Chicago Cubs.  Pick ‘em between Cubs and Cards.  I like the Cubs’ pitching slightly better.  Will their offense be good enough?

4)      St. Louis Cardinals.  I do not like the Cards’ pitching.  Wainright is a huge loss.  Will the Pujols situation be distracting?  Do they trade him if they fall out of it in July?  This will be a big story if St. Louis is out of contention.

5)      Pittsburg Pirates.  The perpetual youth movement shows glimpse of success.  I love to watch McCutcheon play.  The pitching is shallow and won’t be good but there will be improvement.

6)      Houston Astros.  I think only Seattle will be worse.  This organization is in a free fall.  The pitching falters early and often and the offense needs an overhaul.

NL West

1)      Colorado Rockies.  I look for Jhoulys Chacin to have a break out season.  I love the Rockies’ outfield and they have a solid bullpen.  Tulowitzki is a star.

2)      San Francisco Giants.  Patchwork offense was a fluke in 2010.  Posey and Belt are the real deal and Sandoval returns to 2009 form.  The Giants are an easy pick to repeat but I like Colorado more.

3)      Los Angeles Dodgers.  Much improved over a year ago, the Dodgers will stay in the race all year.  This race will match the AL West as a three way battle for the division.  A lot to like here but they will fall short.

4)      San Diego Padres.  A young, exciting rotation gives Padres’ fans something to cheer for but they are offensively stagnant.  Bell will be gone in July.

5)      Arizona Diamond Backs.  I don’t give the D-Backs much of a chance.  They will challenge several other teams for the worst in baseball.  Just not much to be thrilled about.

Postseason

Philadelphia will outlast the Reds, Giants, and Dodgers for the wild card.  Their pitching is good enough to win out in the playoffs.

Awards

Cy Young – Roy Halladay

MVP – Troy Tulowitkzi

ROY – Brandon Belt

World Series

The Red Sox out duel the Phillies in a classic seven game series.

While I will not hesitate to remind everyone of my genius on all predictions I might get correct, I expect all of you to ignore (or forget) my many probable misses.  After all, it is just for fun.  Except when I am right, of
course!

(Note:  4/1/11 - I changed the NL ROY to Brandon Belt, not Beachy.  I was watching Beachy pitch when I wrote the piece and had his name in my head)