While the American League Central does not have the concentrated talent of the AL East, there are a number of terrific players plying their trade in this division. Some of the best pitchers and batters in baseball do battle here but there is definitely a case of the haves and have nots among these five teams. Trying to analyze just how these teams will line up is not an easy task but here goes.
5) Cleveland Indians. The Indians probably have more proven talent, position by position, than their division basement challengers, the Kansas City Royals, but I think the Royals have more potential for in-season improvement. I believe so much of the Indians possible success depends on the return to health of Grady Sizemore. When Sizemore was at the top of his game, he was a star. Unfortunately, he has become more of a delicate egg shell than a viable player over the last couple of years. If he does not completely recover, who knows what kind of player will emerge.
One thing I would not count on if I were an Indian fan is that Travis Hafner will return to his former dominating self. Nothing I have seen leads me to believe he is doing nothing but playing out his contract. On the other hand, I love Shin-Soo Choo. He is consistent and trending up, and is in the prime of his career. He is an underrated star but has little help around him. Young catching prospect Carlos Santana could develop into a second Indians star. Santana is coming back from a nasty knee injury but has done nothing but hit in the minors. With six homers in 150 at bats last year before the collision that knocked him out, he showed promise that he could hit major league pitching. Look for Santana to get some time at first base as Cleveland will look for ways to keep his bat in the line up every day.
The rest of Cleveland’s line-up is filled with question marks. Matt LaPorta has not yet fulfilled his promise and if he fails again, Santana may take over first base permanently. Michael Brantley is still young but has not shown that he handle major league pitching on a regular basis. I was disappointed in his stolen base output, stealing only ten bases last season in 297 at bats. In the infield, Asdrubal Cabrera has been up and down and Orlando Cabrera is on the downside of his career. Third base is a huge questions mark, with Jayson Nix and Jason Donald battling for playing time. Ouch!
The pitching staff is anchored by Fausto Carmona. He had a nice year last year but hardly a number one starter. Justin Masterson and Mitch Talbot will join Carmona and bring very little excitement. I like the potential of Carlos Carrasco & Jeanmar Gomez and but they lack experience. I like Chris Perez as the closer and the Indians have a number of solid options in middle relief. If this bunch is not over worked, they could be very effective.
All in all, I am not a fan of this team. As a fantasy owner, there are very Indians I would want on my roster. Outside of two or three players, I see little upside. If Sizemore returns, though, at full strength, the Indians will probably finish ahead of the Royals.
4) Kansas City Royals. Call me a homer but I can see Kansas City being slightly better than most people think. Don’t get me wrong – they won’t be good – but maybe not as horrible as most people predict. Most think they will lose at least 100 games but I think it will in the 90-99 range. I know. That’s so much better. I do like their growth potential better than the Indians though.
Billy Butler is Kansas City’s best offensive player and he can still improve, especially his power. He hits too many ground balls and is slow afoot, therefore he hits into a lot of double plays. If he could get just a little more loft in his swing, he could hit 20-25 home runs. As of now, he is a doubles machine with a good average. The proven offensive talent drops off after Butler. It looks like Mike Aviles is going to start at third. Aviles has proven he can hit major league pitching but I have been slow to believe. I like Aviles so I hope his hitting continues. I also look for Aviles to steal more bases this year.
Kansas City has a number of players looking for a chance to meet their potential. First on this list is Alex Gordon. This season will probably be his last chance to prove he is not a bust. Can he step up and realize his once great promise or does he become just an average outfielder? If his off season batting approach changes pay off, maybe he can be the player the Royals need him to be. Kila Ka’aihui has been a big OPS monster in the minors but has few chances with the big league team. His time is now. With super prospect, Eric Hosmer, closing quickly, Ka’aihue could prove his worth by displaying some good power. I look for 20-25 homers this year form the big guy. Newly acquired Alcides Escobar is just one year away from being a top prospect. If he returns to the level of his minor league hitting, he could quickly become a top five American League shortstop. I am excited to watch him everyday. Finally, Chris Getz needs to show he is more than a utility player. He has great speed but you can’t steal first. My guess is that Getz will have a short leash. If he continues to flounder, Aviles could move back to second and Wilson Betemit could hold down third until Mike Moustakas is ready.
Young veterans Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera will get a chance to turn their careers around and will start in the outfield to start the season. The Royals are light with impact outfielders in their vaunted minors so if either can reach their early career potential, it would be a big positive for this team.
The catcher position is really void here. If he were better defensively, I would want Bryan Pena to get a chance to be the guy, even when Jason Kendall returns. When he has received steady work, Pena has hit for a decent average.
The pitching staff is full of 4th and 5th starter types. Luke Hochevar will assume the mantle of staff ace and, much like Alex Gordon, he needs to prove he is not a bust. Reclamation project Jeff Francis could prove to be a solid starter if he can return to his pre-injury form. Kyle Davies will have one more chance to turn his light bulb on. He pitches brilliantly for short stretches at a time, looking like an all-star, but he is wretchedly horrible the rest of the time. Dude, throw strikes and keep the ball down. Have you not figured that out yet? Vin Mazzaro and Sean O’Sullivan will battle for the last starting spot with Bruce Chen probably getting the fourth spot. How unspectacular is that?
Joakim Soria is one of the top closers in the game and IS spectacular in his consistency. The bullpen in front of him should also be much improved. One guy I want to watch is Tim Collins. His minors’ numbers have been terrific but I want to see them matched in the majors.
Of course, if all the players continue down their present career paths, with no one reaching their potential, the Royals could lose more than 100 games and a lot of these players will be gone by August as Kansas City will begin getting some experience for their highly touted prospects.
3) Detroit Tigers. Choosing which team to place here was my hardest decision. I don’t think there is much difference between the top three teams and they could possibly finish in any order. I put the Tigers here for the simple fact I don’t like their offense outside of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. These two offensive stalwarts have been consistent top producers for several years. If Cabrera keeps his personal problems away from the field, they should offer the Tigers a nice one-two punch in the middle of the line up.
The problem I have with Detroit is they have three players who will be relied heavily upon and they are getting long of tooth. All are far on the wrong side of their careers and productivity and health are an issue. Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, and Brandon Inge have all had nice careers but I think it dangerous to count on much from this trio.
The Tigers do have some nice youth but two of their brightest performers in the first half last season have questions surrounding them. Brandon Boesch had a terrific first half and an awful second half and looks to be the fourth outfielder. Austin Jackson put up nice numbers as a rookie but luck looks to have played a big part in his success according to his peripherals. Alex Avila is another young player who needs to improve at the plate to make an impact.
I look for Ryan Raburn to take advantage of his increased playing time to produce nice numbers, and Jhonny Peralta needs to return to the skill set he displayed earlier in his career. Will Rhymes, Scott Sizemore, and Casper Wells could have opportunity to contribute if age and health break down some of the penciled in starters.
Detroit’s strength is at the top of their rotation. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer offer as much power pitching from the top spots as any combination in the league. Rick Porcello is a nice complement at the third spot, but Brad Penny is returning from injury and Phil Coke is converting from the bullpen to the rotation, ala C.J. Wilson in Texas. I think Penny could be a sleeper but I doubt Coke enjoys Wilson’s success.
The bullpen is a nice collection of big arms and is anchored nicely by the emotional and sometimes inconsistent Jose Valverde. Valverde was awesome in the first half but struggled some in the dog days. Look for him to continue to be the man.
Detroit has the second best rotation in the division but I don’t trust the fragility of the offense to hold for a full season. Too many questions at the plate for me to rank them better than third.
2)Minnesota Twins. The Twins’ season could very well come down to two simple questions. Can Joe Mauer’s knees hold up and will Justin Morneau recover enough from his concussion to return to his productive levels. If the answer is to both, then the Twins will challenge for the Central. If it is no for both, the Twins may be in trouble. These two guys are the backbone of this franchise and they need to be healthy for the Twins to be successful. It worries me that Minnesota appeared to be willing to trade their number one starter for the right deal to the Yankees. Would they be willing if both players were going to be 100%?
Minnesota does have some nice depth at the outfield/DH positions. The solid Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, who should be back to full strength by Opening Day or shortly thereafter, the improving Delmon Young, and the venerable Jim Thome will probably be rotated as they have in the past. These guys as a unit offer a nice mix of speed, power, and average and are all solid players.
The rest of the infield will have a bit of a different look. Alexi Casilla, who failed as a starting two-bagger early in his career, is now the starting shortstop. The Twins imported Japanese all-star,Tsuyoshi Nishioka, to play second. These two should offer nice range up the middle. Danny Valencia mans third base and offers a nice average but little average.
I am not a fan of Minnesota’s rotation. Francisco Liriano is a strong ace but has had health issues in the past. I think he is past them and can be a workhorse. Does Carl Pavano’s strong season in 2010 mean he has put his career inconsistency behind him? The Twins think so. And where did the Twins buy that cookie cutter they use for all these pitchers that keep arriving from the minors. Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, & Brian Duensing all seem like the same pitcher too me. It doesn’t matter who is in the rotation. They are all solid, if unspectacular, guys who pitch to contact. They work half their games in a nice hitter’s park and don’t excite me or anyone else. I wish the Royals had a couple of them!
In a common theme with the rest of the division, the Twins boast a solid bullpen with two closer candidates. Matt Capps will probably get most of the saves early until Joe Nathan shows he has completely recovered his health and effectiveness. If Nathan is feeling good, it is hard not to imagine him closing out games.
The Twins are a solid team, maybe even better than solid if Mauer and Morneau are healthy. It is not a flashy bunch but they are sound all around and could win this division.
1)Chicago White Sox. To me, it is clear cut the White Sox are the best team in the Central. They have the best rotation in the division and a strong offense. I don’t see any glaring weaknesses, except possibly at third.
Most of Chicago’s power will be generated from the first base and DH positions. At his age, it is unreasonable to expect Paul Konerko to match his 2010 stats but he should not be too far off. Adam Dunn, though, is one of the most, if not the most, consistent homerun hitter in the Majors. A decade of banging home runs should continue, and maybe even increase in Chicago. These two big boys could knock out a combined 70 round trippers (remember when that was a ho-hum season for a single slugger).
Look for Alex Rios to maintain his numbers from last year and hopefully 2009 was an aberration. Juan Pierre will continue to spark the offense with his speed. The White Sox could truly dominate if Carlos Quentin overcomes the injuries and inconsistency that have plagued him over the past couple of campaigns. Alex Ramirez is a nice guy to have at shortstop. He is solid enough to be a top five shortstop in the AL. Gordon Beckham will bounce back and will probably produce numbers very similar to Ramirez. The biggest weakness is at third. The White Sox want to give Brent Morel the job but if he proves not to be ready, it will not be the end of the world. They still have the plain but steady Mark Teahen to hold down the fort until he is. Doesn’t it seem like A.J. Pieryznski has been around forever? What’s one more year?
I love the White Sox rotation. Wouldn’t it be nice if Mark Buehrle was your worst starter? That could be the case. With John Danks as the emerging ace, a steady Gavin Floyd, and an undervalued Edwin Jackson, what team could ask for more, other than Philadelphia? Even Jake Peavy has been encouraging this spring. That would just be the cherry on top.
Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen always seem to push the right buttons when comes to assembling and using a bullpen. They do a great job getting the most of their arms. It will be interesting, though, to see who emerges as the favorite to close. Guillen seems to be leaning toward Matt Thornton or youngster Chris Sale. I have the feeling whomever he chooses will get the job done.
It seems easy to pick the team with the fewest questions to win this division. It certainly doesn’t take a genius, but I believe the rest of the division will be hard pressed to surpass Chicago. I don’t foresee many long losing streaks with this rotation and, with the nice array of hitters up and down the line up, I think the White Sox will score a lot of runs. With this rotation, the White Sox could also be very hard to beat in the playoffs as well.
I do want to apologize for one thing. I am terrible at proofreading my own work. I think faster than I type and I have huge, clumsy hands, therefore I usually have typos galore. I know what I was thinking when I was typing so when I read through these posts, I often miss errors. Luckily, my brother lets me know when my posts look like a third grader typed them and I can go back later and edit them. Thanks Jon. I need all the help I can get.
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