Royals Prospects: Heroes or Heart Crushers?

Alex Gordon.  Alex Gordon is a name that scares the crap out of me.  A cautionary tale if there ever was one for Royals fans.  Alex Gordon, who was drafted second overall in 2005, and rightly so.  Alex Gordon, who has seen fellow 2005 first round picks Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Andrew McCutchen, and Jay Bruce really enjoy some success.  Alex Gordon, who has pounded collegiate and minor league pitching.  The same Alex Gordon who has a career .244 batting average in the Majors in 1442 At Bats. A few years ago, Gordon and Billy Butler were to be the cornerstones on which this once proud organization would rebuild.  Butler, although a slight tick below his expectations, especially in power, has held up his end, Gordon has done nothing to even come close to his potential.

That cynicism, nurtured for more than two decades, is what is stifling my hope and joy over the bevy of Royals prospects peaking over the horizon at us.  And I am not the only one.  Scott McKinney did a great a study on the success and failure rate of Baseball America's Top 100 MLB prospects from 1990 to 2003 (www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424) and he found that only about 30% of all prospects have MLB success.  I will qualify that with an opinion of my own.  McKinney's study is terrific and detailed, but I would think that both Baseball America and Major League teams themselves do a much better job scouting and analyzing players now than they did twenty years ago, so that 30% is probably slightly higher in the last decade than in the early 1990s.  Even so, with this analysis, the odds are against the Royals getting more than 3 or 4 successful players out of this first wave of prospects.

The optimist in me, though, does take notice of the fact the Royals have a record setting wave of prospects.  By now, you know the numbers - three of the top 10, five of the top 20, and ten in the top 101 (I read that Jeremy Jeffress was rated 101).  That 30% increases when talking about players ranked in the top 10 and top 20.  So there is hope that Kansas City can buck the odds.  I certainly hope so.

I am not going to go down the list and throw stats and trends at you from every direction.  There are plenty of places you can go to find stats and statistical analysis for these players.  I have read several myself.  I will, however, give you my brief take on some of the players.  I have formed these opinions and impressions based stats, statistical analysis, and commentary from numerous sources.

The two players I think will be the most successful are Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers.  From everything I have read, these two will hit for average and power, although not as much power as Mike Moustakas.  Hosmer and Myers make good contact and neither strikeout a ton.  Both will be good in the field - Myers will probably be better in the outfield than he was at catcher.  We may see Hosmer later this summer but we will not see Myers until next season.  I like Mike Moustakas but he evidently has a few more holes in his swing than the other two, if not more power.  Although he has a great knowledge of the strike zone, he still has some struggles against lefties.  Unless he tanks, we will probably see him sometime this summer.

Pitchers have a lower success rate than hitters but the Royals are loaded, especially with lefties.  We know that of the top 5 starting pitchers in the system, Kansas City will be lucky if two of them turn out to be good Major League starters.  The others will get hurt, or will be moved to the bullpen, or just won't be able to get hitters out at the elite level.  Those are the percentages; that is life.  Last weekend, though, at Ron Shandler's First Pitch Chicago, Jim Callis of Baseball America, said he loved all four of the Royals lefties - Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Danny Duffy, and Chris Dwyer ( Callis also had 17 Royals in his Top 200 prospects).  My take is that Lamb may be the most talented, but we need a bigger sample size.  Montgomery and Duffy could evolve into #2 starter types.  It is also possible that Duffy and or Dwyer could end up in the bullpen, especially early.  We could see all of these at some point in 2011 but probably not for very many appearances for any of them.

One thing that has frustrated me for years is the fact that Kansas City has not been able to develop good middle relievers.  The Royals have been signing guys for years to fill those spots.  That is about to change.  The Royals have several pitchers, developed in the minors as relievers, that could have a positive impact this season.  Tim Collins, who we got in the Ankiel trade last summer, has put up some sick good numbers in the minors.  He has been dismissed by numerous people throughout his career because of his size (5'7"/170) but he has had success wherever he has pitched.  He could come north with the team and, if not, we should see him soon.  The Royals also have Louis Coleman, Patrick Keating, and Blaine Hardy who may offer positive help this season.  Plus, the Royals acquired Jeremy Jeffress in the Greinke deal and he most certainly will make the team and if he can harness his control a little, he could be dominate.

Of all these players I have mentioned, though, there is a chance, a good chance, only about a third of them will be successful in the Majors.  One thing in our favor is the sheer number of top prospects and if the Royals do buck the odds somewhat and get help from more than 30%, then the future looks bright indeed.  Also keep in mind, though, the name Alex Gordon.  As a lifelong KC fan, I will be sick if there is considerably more failure than success out of these players.  Kansas City, as a team and as a city, needs most of these players to be success.  I don't know how many more rebuilding plans I can stomach.  I don't know if I can take too many more Alex Gordons.

A quick mention of a couple of prospects that are kind of flying under the radar or are too young to be talked about much  - catcher Salvador Perez has really been turning heads this spring and is only 20 years old, and Clint Robinson, who won the AA triple crown last season  and is not mentioned much because he isn't very good defensively.

I want to list some of my sources here - ranyontheroyals.com, kingsofkaufman.com, royalsreview.com, Baseball America, and 2011 Minor League Baseball Analysis.