I originally planned to make my predictions for the Big XII
2012-2013 basketball season but after doing some research, I decided it was
just too tough and would serve no point.
Other than predicting Texas Tech and TCU as the worst two schools,
nothing else is very predictable. Even
choosing Kansas to win their 9th
straight conference title, while easy to do considering their recent history,
may not be as clear as it seems. The
conference will have eight very competitive teams this season and I can see almost
all of them capable of winning the championship if things fell their way.
Instead, I decided to just focus on Kansas. I will give reasons why it is quite possible
for them to continue their remarkable streak and reasons why it is not a sure
thing for them to repeat as conference regular season champs again.
This will be a very athletic Kansas
team but it will be very young. KU does
have strong, experienced seniors in place in Elijah Johnson, Travis Releford,
Jeff Withey, and Kevin Young but after those four, there is very little
collegiate experience. These four
seniors will get a lot of playing time but most are new to their currant
roles. Only Releford will be filling a
role he has enjoyed in the past. Johnson
and Withey are now the team leaders, the players opponents will focus on. They do not have Tyshawn Taylor or Thomas
Robinson to draw attention. These two
men will have to step forward and prove they are the next stars in KU’s long
history. Young will be relied on to
bring energy and play more minutes than last year. Only Releford seems to have the same role –
that of the steady glue guy.
Justin Wesley does have a bit of experience but I really
doubt he will be able to make the rotation.
Nadir Tharpe played sparingly as a freshman, and while he looked lost
much of the time, he appeared to take a step in the right direction toward the
end of the season. He has to earn Coach
Bill Self’s trust to be the back-up point guard.
The Jayhawks are loaded with talented freshman. Academic redshirts Ben McLemore and Jamari
Traylor have seen the court in games but do enjoy spending a year in the
system. There is chance McLemore will
start at the third guard position and Traylor will be counted on to offer depth
along the front line. Perry Ellis and
Andrew White III will both see plenty of action and should offer some offensive
punch to the line-up. There is a good
chance Ellis will start at the four. I
am not sure where Anrio Adams will fit in.
He is probably more of the prototypical Self guard than Tharpe, with the
size and skills to play either guard position.
My guess is that he will either earn a rotation spot, which will be a
big bonus, or he will have to bide his time, learn, improve, then contribute in
future seasons.
Finally, KU has two big guys vying for minutes in back-ups
roles, Landon Lucas and Zach Peters. I
am not sure which one will earn the rotation minutes but I think Peters is more
of a project therefore Lucas should get more playing time. If these two guys both make big leaps in
improvement, they may be they keys to just how good KU can be. Self likes to play an aggressive, physical
style of basketball and the more fouls he can give, the harder his troops can
go at it.
If I were to project Self’s 9-man rotation, really two
deeper than last season’s, I would guess the four seniors are locked down, plus
Ellis, McLemore, White, and either Tharpe or Adams, and one out of the
threesome of Traylor, Lucas, and Peters.
Whatever three are left out shows just how deep this version is. Any of three players that be remaining should
be able to push those ahead of him on the depth chart and could earn more
playing time as the season goes along.
With this depth, it will be a more prototypical Self team and their
should be plenty of competition for playing time.
This team will have its share of weaknesses. While Withey alters a lot of shots, he is
often out of position when it comes to rebounding. The guards and whatever other frontline
player may be in the game are going to have to crash the boards hard. I can easily see this team struggling to hold
their own. I am worried Ellis will get
out manned against bigger, more physical forwards. I am not sold on Johnson as the primary ball
handler. I have seen little in his
career that leads me to think he can handle those duties for more than thirty
minutes each game. Releford has never
been know for his ball handling skills and I don’t know how strong McLemore and
White III are with the ball in their hands.
Self likes a multitude of guys capable of bringing the ball up and I
just don’t see much here. Tharpe and
Adams could see their minutes increase if KU struggles getting the ball up the
floor.
While KU does have its core of seniors, they are really going
to count on most of the rest of the minutes coming from freshmen. Traditionally, freshmen have underperformed
under Self. The Jayhawks really need three
or four of these youngsters to excel early and often for KU to successfully
defend its title streak. I am also
worried that KU’s excellent coaching staff will miss Danny Manning and his work
with the big guys. Will the KU big guys
be able to continue to excel in footwork and moves around the basket since
Manning took the Tulsa head
coaching post? I think his leaving will
have an affect on this program. If any
staff can minimize the possible damage of Manning’s absence, it is this one.
Kansas
certainly has to be considered the favorite to win the Big XII but it is not a
sure thing. The seniors will have to
seamlessly step into the new, enhanced, leadership roles, and the young guys
will need to mature quickly. If KU can
overcome possible deficiencies on the boards and with ball handling, there is
no reason this squad can’t enjoy the same successes past teams have
earned. If this team is a deep as it
looks on paper, it will be a very hard team to beat.
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