Santa Self

Santa Self has delivered us another great gift this year.  Despite losing two top players from a National Champion finalist team last year in Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor, Santa Self has wrapped up a team heavy with seniors and freshmen that continues to get stronger.  A big win on road in Columbus, Ohio last Saturday was a holiday treat for us all.

This 2012-2013 college basketball season is proving to be a weak one, not only nationally, but in the Big XII as well.  Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News has the Big XII ranked 8^th among conferences, behind such power leagues as the Mountain West, Atlantic 10, Pac-12, and the round ball challenged SEC.  It wasn’t too long ago that the Big XII had moved up into the top two or three basketball conferences.  Missouri jumping to the SEC certainly didn’t help.  Even though the Tigers have the 146^th ranked strength of schedule (Rivals.com’s RPI Ratings), they are 10-1 and would probably be Kansas’ biggest challengers this season if they had stayed put.  Missouri and Texas A&M were replaced by a horrible basketball school in TCU (only scored 31 in a game this season and have scored less than 50 in several others) and a very disappointing West Virginia, 6-5, 111 RPI).  The conference only has three teams in the RPI top 40 – Kansas (2), Oklahoma St. (20), and Oklahoma (25).  Only three teams have played a schedule ranked in the top 60 – Kansas (3), OU (13), and Baylor (26).  Three teams have schedules ranked lower than 200 – Kansas St. (215), TCU (283), and Texas Tech (298).  I have long believed that many of the Big XII schools historically don’t schedule a tough enough slate.  KU and Texas usually are the only teams that play stronger teams on a regular basis. 

Be that as it may, Kansas is ranked 7^th in the AP and 2^nd in the RPI with the 3^rd toughest schedule in the country.  I think Santa Self has done a great job of picking some of the strongest mid-major teams year in and year out to play.  I think that is why his strength of schedule is so high.  Throw in teams like Colorado and Temple, on top of the likes of Michigan State and Ohio State, and he has a competitive schedule against several good to decent teams Kansas should beat. 

Santa Self also does a terrific job being patient with his teams.  He lets them grow as players throughout the pre-conference schedule.  His teams generally make a leap forward about this time of year as he has much more practice time between semesters to put in more plays.  Kansas usually hits their stride come the conference part of the schedule.  Barring something disastrous, Kansas should stroll away through the Big XII this season and win their 9^th straight conference title.  That would be an amazing accomplishment.

One of the things Santa Self does best is to reload each year.  Year after year, KU loses a big chunk of their points, rebounds, assists, and minutes to graduation (it should also be noted that Santa Self's players graduate at a very high rate) or the NBA.  Several higher echelon schools go through this.  It also seems that Santa Self has something left in his stocking for the next season, even when it doesn’t always appear that he does.  This year, he was left with four seniors, three of whom started in the National Championship game last April. 

After KU beat Richmond a couple of weeks ago, Chris Mooney, the Spiders’ coach, said he was surprised when he started watching film on the Jayhawks.  He couldn’t believe a school on the level of Kansas would have four senior starters.  In this day and age of one and done players, the top tier teams are often hit the worst by this.  One of the CBS announcers on Saturday, I think it was Greg Anthony, also mentioned the anomaly of a school like Kansas having four seniors during the Ohio State telecast.  Santa Self does a terrific job of getting a lot of his players that are not one and done talent to stay the course and convinces them that they can be major contributors down the road.  He does it year after year.  Players who don’t play much as freshmen or sophomores end up playing huge roles on very good teams by the time they are juniors and seniors.  Santa Self and his staff are obviously coaching these kids up, even when they are not playing a lot of minutes in games.  It always seems to pay off.

This team has the four seniors, one sophomore with significant playing time in Nadir Tharpe, and the other five guys who get to play in varying degrees are freshmen (not counting the walk-ons or junior Justin Wesley).  The four seniors are not the most talented or athletic players in the country but they all do many things very well.  They all bring something important to the table.  They have all been role players in the past but are now the leaders.  They all know what Santa Self requires of them and they work together to win games.  Talking heads always go on about how important senior leadership is come NCAA tournament time.  That theory will be tested in March as Kansas tries for back to back Final Fours. 

Kansas can look very good (Colorado, Belmont, Richmond) but they are happy to win ugly too (Chattanooga, Ohio State).  The ugly wins don’t count less than the pretty ones.  Kansas has a very good chance, because of their strong non-conference schedule and an apparently weaker than usual Big XII, to mount a pretty big win total by tournament time.  Unless something unforeseen happens (never want to count chickens before they hatch), Kansas should be in a prime position to garner a #1 seed, and no lower than a #2 seed.  With senior leadership, it would a great gift to the fans for the Jayhawks to return to the Final Four and maybe even the Finals.  Santa Self has delivered before; he can do it again.  Check your list Santa Self; we have been very good this year!

I hope everyone has a safe and happy holiday season!

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2012-2013 Kansas Basketball Preview

I originally planned to make my predictions for the Big XII 2012-2013 basketball season but after doing some research, I decided it was just too tough and would serve no point.  Other than predicting Texas Tech and TCU as the worst two schools, nothing else is very predictable.  Even choosing Kansas to win their 9^th straight conference title, while easy to do considering their recent history, may not be as clear as it seems.  The conference will have eight very competitive teams this season and I can see almost all of them capable of winning the championship if things fell their way.

Instead, I decided to just focus on Kansas.  I will give reasons why it is quite possible for them to continue their remarkable streak and reasons why it is not a sure thing for them to repeat as conference regular season champs again.

This will be a very athletic Kansas team but it will be very young.  KU does have strong, experienced seniors in place in Elijah Johnson, Travis Releford, Jeff Withey, and Kevin Young but after those four, there is very little collegiate experience.  These four seniors will get a lot of playing time but most are new to their currant roles.  Only Releford will be filling a role he has enjoyed in the past.  Johnson and Withey are now the team leaders, the players opponents will focus on.  They do not have Tyshawn Taylor or Thomas Robinson to draw attention.  These two men will have to step forward and prove they are the next stars in KU’s long history.  Young will be relied on to bring energy and play more minutes than last year.  Only Releford seems to have the same role – that of the steady glue guy. 

Justin Wesley does have a bit of experience but I really doubt he will be able to make the rotation.  Nadir Tharpe played sparingly as a freshman, and while he looked lost much of the time, he appeared to take a step in the right direction toward the end of the season.  He has to earn Coach Bill Self’s trust to be the back-up point guard.

The Jayhawks are loaded with talented freshman.  Academic redshirts Ben McLemore and Jamari Traylor have seen the court in games but do enjoy spending a year in the system.  There is chance McLemore will start at the third guard position and Traylor will be counted on to offer depth along the front line.  Perry Ellis and Andrew White III will both see plenty of action and should offer some offensive punch to the line-up.  There is a good chance Ellis will start at the four.  I am not sure where Anrio Adams will fit in.  He is probably more of the prototypical Self guard than Tharpe, with the size and skills to play either guard position.  My guess is that he will either earn a rotation spot, which will be a big bonus, or he will have to bide his time, learn, improve, then contribute in future seasons. 

Finally, KU has two big guys vying for minutes in back-ups roles, Landon Lucas and Zach Peters.  I am not sure which one will earn the rotation minutes but I think Peters is more of a project therefore Lucas should get more playing time.  If these two guys both make big leaps in improvement, they may be they keys to just how good KU can be.  Self likes to play an aggressive, physical style of basketball and the more fouls he can give, the harder his troops can go at it.

If I were to project Self’s 9-man rotation, really two deeper than last season’s, I would guess the four seniors are locked down, plus Ellis, McLemore, White, and either Tharpe or Adams, and one out of the threesome of Traylor, Lucas, and Peters.  Whatever three are left out shows just how deep this version is.  Any of three players that be remaining should be able to push those ahead of him on the depth chart and could earn more playing time as the season goes along.  With this depth, it will be a more prototypical Self team and their should be plenty of competition for playing time. 

This team will have its share of weaknesses.  While Withey alters a lot of shots, he is often out of position when it comes to rebounding.  The guards and whatever other frontline player may be in the game are going to have to crash the boards hard.  I can easily see this team struggling to hold their own.  I am worried Ellis will get out manned against bigger, more physical forwards.  I am not sold on Johnson as the primary ball handler.  I have seen little in his career that leads me to think he can handle those duties for more than thirty minutes each game.  Releford has never been know for his ball handling skills and I don’t know how strong McLemore and White III are with the ball in their hands.  Self likes a multitude of guys capable of bringing the ball up and I just don’t see much here.  Tharpe and Adams could see their minutes increase if KU struggles getting the ball up the floor.

While KU does have its core of seniors, they are really going to count on most of the rest of the minutes coming from freshmen.  Traditionally, freshmen have underperformed under Self.  The Jayhawks really need three or four of these youngsters to excel early and often for KU to successfully defend its title streak.  I am also worried that KU’s excellent coaching staff will miss Danny Manning and his work with the big guys.  Will the KU big guys be able to continue to excel in footwork and moves around the basket since Manning took the Tulsa head coaching post?  I think his leaving will have an affect on this program.  If any staff can minimize the possible damage of Manning’s absence, it is this one.

Kansas certainly has to be considered the favorite to win the Big XII but it is not a sure thing.  The seniors will have to seamlessly step into the new, enhanced, leadership roles, and the young guys will need to mature quickly.  If KU can overcome possible deficiencies on the boards and with ball handling, there is no reason this squad can’t enjoy the same successes past teams have earned.  If this team is a deep as it looks on paper, it will be a very hard team to beat.

Missed Opportunities for the Jayhawks

The Kansas Jayhawks had a terrific season.  I think they were ranked high in the preseason polls and picked to win the Big XII due more to their reputations and history rather than true talent.  Yet, the Jayhawks played to their ranking and preseason predictions.  They won their 8^th straight conference title and were ranked in the top 10 for most of the season.  They earned a number 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  While these accomplishments don’t seem like a surprise, I have to honestly admit they really exceeded my true expectations.

KU featured a fine starting five and a very thin bench.  When the season started, Tyshawn Taylor had more career minutes played than all of his teammates combined at Kansas.  Jayhawk fans are used to a solid rotation of 8 or 9 almost every season.  This team played its bench only when it was necessary.  Yet, they found a way to succeed and play to the seemingly unrealistic preseason predictions.  Mirroring the toughness of their head coach, Bill Self, Kansas fought and scraped their way to success.  Few games were easy or runaways and the Jayhawks seemed to be playing from behind much of the season.  They found a way to win game after game. 

The NCAA Tournament followed the established pattern for the Jayhawks.  They didn’t play well in the first halves and those kids were able to turn things around in the second halves, making furious comebacks in several postseason games.  Even in the championship game, the Jayhawks struggled early and found themselves digging themselves out of a hole late.

Kentucky is a fine team.  There has been little doubt the Wildcats were the best team throughout a down year in college basketball.  They were young but talented and athletic.  Coach John Calipari got them to buy into his system and to play defense, a deathly combination for the opposition.

There is no doubt Kentucky was more talented and athletic, player for player, than Kansas.  The Wildcats dominated the first half and it was all the Jayhawks could do not to be blown out and embarrassed.  KU popped out of the locker room after the half just as they did several other games.  Kansas made a couple of shots and made a couple of defensive stops.  In my opinion, the key play of the game was when Jeff Withey failed to get an easy dunk through the cords early in the second half.  KU had cut into the lead and their fans were just starting to feel the momentum swing.  If that dunk goes down, who knows if the outcome would have been different.  So much happened after that play.  Immediately though, UK scored a basket and snuffed the Jayhawks’ growing momentum.  I want to make it clear that I am not blaming Withey for this loss.  Without him, KU would never have been even close to the championship game.  It just happened to be his missed dunk that I felt was the key.

From that point, KU ever so slowly scraped their way back into the game but never really gained that feeling of momentum.  The Wildcats seemed to be on the verge of allowing the Jayhawks back into the game mentally but with that failed dunk, Kansas seemed to lose a little something.  They eventually cut their deficit to 5 points but never closer.  UK kept them at arms length and eventually outlasted the comeback.

But that missed dunk wasn’t the only missed opportunity for the Jayhawks.  KU missed 3 dunks and 13 lay-ups through the course of the game.  The fantastic Anthony Davis had a lot to do with Kansas’ tightness around the rim.  Still, KU only lost by 8 points.  If KU had cashed in on just a few of those missed chances, things could have been much different.  Make the dunks (the highest percentage shot possible) and just a couple of the missed bunnies, then maybe there would have been a different result in the outcome.

It is futile to play the “what if” game.  It serves no purpose and it does take away from a great performance by the Wildcats.  I mention these key blown opportunities because it shows that the game wasn’t that far from having a different result. 

I heard a talking head yesterday speaking about how this only proves that Kentucky is the best program and how John Calipari is by far the best coach in college basketball.  All of his arguments sounded pre-written.  I think if KU would have won, this guy would have just replaced Kentucky with Kansas and John Calipari with Bill Self.  His arguments would have held weight for whichever school and coach, depending on who won the game.  He went on and on about now it wasn’t even close to which school and coach was best.  He said no one could argue the point anymore.  My point is that the discussion is still closer than this guy wanted to admit.  Three dunks and a couple of lay ups and who knows.  Kentucky had a fine season and played a heck of a championship game and they deserved the title but KU wasn’t that far behind.

Bill Self proved that he must be counted among the game’s finest coaches.  He has shown in the past that he is a top notch recruiter and has been able to get top players to adhere to his system.  He proved this season he could coach a team with less talent but with huge hearts and still win.  Coach Self and this team should be very proud of their season and the final results.  I know the fans are.  The worst thing is that we now have to wait seven months for the next edition of the Kansas Jayhawks.

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The Jayhawks' Down Year

I have always admired Bill Self and I consider him a great college basketball coach.  We all know he is a terrific recruiter and one of the best coaches roaming the sidelines.  Coach Self though, did suffer through one of his worst recruiting seasons of his career last year.  He got caught in late May waiting on a handful of young studs to make their decisions on which college they would attend and Self missed on most of them.  Self was forced to scrape together some leftovers and scraps just out fill out his roster.  Of the guys that chose KU, three were eventually deemed ineligible by the NCAA and one subsequently left the program.  Self was left with his most shallow bench, by far, for this team.

Self seems to have learned his lesson when it comes to waiting for young, flighty, self-absorbed children to make up their minds about where they want to play their one year of college ball.  Self has locked up most of his recruits for next season already and he won’t be relying on any late signers to make or break next year’s roster.  Most, if not all of the signed players, are good students and should not have any NCAA academic issues. 

Now, let’s return to the thought about Self being a great coach.  This version of the Jayhawks features one big, super-stud in Thomas Robinson.  T-Rob is a beast, a match-up problem for almost any college teams.  KU also relies on a flighty, inconsistent, often times, brilliant guard in Tyshawn Taylor.  Many fans have been quite harsh with Taylor, and sometimes he has earned this, but KU would not be anywhere near as good as they are without him.  While his uneven play will undoubtedly cost the Jayhawks a win or two, his athleticism and skills with certainly win the Jayhawks many more games than he will lose.  He has already done so.  I think fans need to accept Taylor for what he is and be glad he plays for us and not someone else.

Jeff Withey has been better than I ever thought he would be.  While he is not a perfect player, he offers so much that is positive to this team.  I think he has been the biggest key to the success of his team thus far, more than any other single player.  The starting line up is rounded out by a couple of players in Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford who have developed into decent role players.  While I think both are underachievers on the offensive end, both have been playing terrific defense and in Self’s system, this is as important as scoring points.  EJ especially needs to gain offensive confidence if the Jayhawks hope to go very deep into the NCAA tournament.

The bench is where Self’s recruiting shortcomings really rears its ugly head.  Self is basically stealing minutes of rest with just three players, none of which are really good enough to be playing regularly in a conference as good as the Big XII.  Conner Teahan is the most disappointing because he is supposed to be a three point specialist and he has struggled mightily most of the season.  Let’s face facts here – if Teahan isn’t hitting 3’s, he isn’t contributing much.  His defense is barely adequate and he often looks overmatched on both ends of the court.  He does hustle and rebound but most times, it is not enough.  Kevin Young and Justin Wesley are both just foul fodder.  There have been few seasons when either of these guys would have been good enough to see any court time at KU.  Again, they work hard but just fall short of being skilled enough to make much more than an occasional positive contribution.

This team reminds me a little of the 1987-1988 champions.  Each features one incredible player of the year candidate and not a whole lot else.  Each team had some big ups and downs throughout the season.  This biggest difference is that this squad has overachieved most of the season.  They have been a ranked team all year.  They still have a great chance to win another league championship.  I can not predict at this time how I think they will do in the NCAA tournament.  I can easily see this team losing in one of the first two rounds.  When a team is as shallow as this one is, a single game can easily be influenced heavily and negatively, by foul trouble or a slight injury.  If KU would lose early in the tourney this season, I would be disappointed but not overly surprised.  Self’s teams do have a history of early exits in the tournament.

On the other hand, we all know perfectly well that a single player can throw a team over his shoulder and carry them to the promise land.  We have seen it firsthand.  T-Rob could be this kind of player.  Robinson also has a very talented caddy in Taylor, who could easily go on a six-game hot streak and propel KU right into the Final Four and maybe even to a championship.  Coach Bill Self has a history here too.  We all know he has a championship under his belt as well as some of those early exits. 

I think if this turns out to be KU’s down year and Coach Self learns from his past mistakes in recruiting, as it appears he has, we as KU fans should feel very fortunate.  There are a lot of schools out there who love to be ranked in the top ten and be tied for first in their conference in a down season.  This may very well be Self’s greatest coaching job.  He has worked miracles with a team with very few BCS-type players.  As KU fans, we are definitively spoiled rotten.  I, for one, don’t mind.   I am looking forward to the last few weeks of the regular season and the tourney season.  I will cheer the Jayhawks on for however long they last in the post season and I will probably be disappointed and a little mad if, or when, we lose.  Yet, I wouldn’t want to follow any other team or coach.  Rock Chalk!

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