2012-2013 Kansas Basketball Preview

I originally planned to make my predictions for the Big XII 2012-2013 basketball season but after doing some research, I decided it was just too tough and would serve no point.  Other than predicting Texas Tech and TCU as the worst two schools, nothing else is very predictable.  Even choosing Kansas to win their 9^th straight conference title, while easy to do considering their recent history, may not be as clear as it seems.  The conference will have eight very competitive teams this season and I can see almost all of them capable of winning the championship if things fell their way.

Instead, I decided to just focus on Kansas.  I will give reasons why it is quite possible for them to continue their remarkable streak and reasons why it is not a sure thing for them to repeat as conference regular season champs again.

This will be a very athletic Kansas team but it will be very young.  KU does have strong, experienced seniors in place in Elijah Johnson, Travis Releford, Jeff Withey, and Kevin Young but after those four, there is very little collegiate experience.  These four seniors will get a lot of playing time but most are new to their currant roles.  Only Releford will be filling a role he has enjoyed in the past.  Johnson and Withey are now the team leaders, the players opponents will focus on.  They do not have Tyshawn Taylor or Thomas Robinson to draw attention.  These two men will have to step forward and prove they are the next stars in KU’s long history.  Young will be relied on to bring energy and play more minutes than last year.  Only Releford seems to have the same role – that of the steady glue guy. 

Justin Wesley does have a bit of experience but I really doubt he will be able to make the rotation.  Nadir Tharpe played sparingly as a freshman, and while he looked lost much of the time, he appeared to take a step in the right direction toward the end of the season.  He has to earn Coach Bill Self’s trust to be the back-up point guard.

The Jayhawks are loaded with talented freshman.  Academic redshirts Ben McLemore and Jamari Traylor have seen the court in games but do enjoy spending a year in the system.  There is chance McLemore will start at the third guard position and Traylor will be counted on to offer depth along the front line.  Perry Ellis and Andrew White III will both see plenty of action and should offer some offensive punch to the line-up.  There is a good chance Ellis will start at the four.  I am not sure where Anrio Adams will fit in.  He is probably more of the prototypical Self guard than Tharpe, with the size and skills to play either guard position.  My guess is that he will either earn a rotation spot, which will be a big bonus, or he will have to bide his time, learn, improve, then contribute in future seasons. 

Finally, KU has two big guys vying for minutes in back-ups roles, Landon Lucas and Zach Peters.  I am not sure which one will earn the rotation minutes but I think Peters is more of a project therefore Lucas should get more playing time.  If these two guys both make big leaps in improvement, they may be they keys to just how good KU can be.  Self likes to play an aggressive, physical style of basketball and the more fouls he can give, the harder his troops can go at it.

If I were to project Self’s 9-man rotation, really two deeper than last season’s, I would guess the four seniors are locked down, plus Ellis, McLemore, White, and either Tharpe or Adams, and one out of the threesome of Traylor, Lucas, and Peters.  Whatever three are left out shows just how deep this version is.  Any of three players that be remaining should be able to push those ahead of him on the depth chart and could earn more playing time as the season goes along.  With this depth, it will be a more prototypical Self team and their should be plenty of competition for playing time. 

This team will have its share of weaknesses.  While Withey alters a lot of shots, he is often out of position when it comes to rebounding.  The guards and whatever other frontline player may be in the game are going to have to crash the boards hard.  I can easily see this team struggling to hold their own.  I am worried Ellis will get out manned against bigger, more physical forwards.  I am not sold on Johnson as the primary ball handler.  I have seen little in his career that leads me to think he can handle those duties for more than thirty minutes each game.  Releford has never been know for his ball handling skills and I don’t know how strong McLemore and White III are with the ball in their hands.  Self likes a multitude of guys capable of bringing the ball up and I just don’t see much here.  Tharpe and Adams could see their minutes increase if KU struggles getting the ball up the floor.

While KU does have its core of seniors, they are really going to count on most of the rest of the minutes coming from freshmen.  Traditionally, freshmen have underperformed under Self.  The Jayhawks really need three or four of these youngsters to excel early and often for KU to successfully defend its title streak.  I am also worried that KU’s excellent coaching staff will miss Danny Manning and his work with the big guys.  Will the KU big guys be able to continue to excel in footwork and moves around the basket since Manning took the Tulsa head coaching post?  I think his leaving will have an affect on this program.  If any staff can minimize the possible damage of Manning’s absence, it is this one.

Kansas certainly has to be considered the favorite to win the Big XII but it is not a sure thing.  The seniors will have to seamlessly step into the new, enhanced, leadership roles, and the young guys will need to mature quickly.  If KU can overcome possible deficiencies on the boards and with ball handling, there is no reason this squad can’t enjoy the same successes past teams have earned.  If this team is a deep as it looks on paper, it will be a very hard team to beat.

The Jayhawks' Down Year

I have always admired Bill Self and I consider him a great college basketball coach.  We all know he is a terrific recruiter and one of the best coaches roaming the sidelines.  Coach Self though, did suffer through one of his worst recruiting seasons of his career last year.  He got caught in late May waiting on a handful of young studs to make their decisions on which college they would attend and Self missed on most of them.  Self was forced to scrape together some leftovers and scraps just out fill out his roster.  Of the guys that chose KU, three were eventually deemed ineligible by the NCAA and one subsequently left the program.  Self was left with his most shallow bench, by far, for this team.

Self seems to have learned his lesson when it comes to waiting for young, flighty, self-absorbed children to make up their minds about where they want to play their one year of college ball.  Self has locked up most of his recruits for next season already and he won’t be relying on any late signers to make or break next year’s roster.  Most, if not all of the signed players, are good students and should not have any NCAA academic issues. 

Now, let’s return to the thought about Self being a great coach.  This version of the Jayhawks features one big, super-stud in Thomas Robinson.  T-Rob is a beast, a match-up problem for almost any college teams.  KU also relies on a flighty, inconsistent, often times, brilliant guard in Tyshawn Taylor.  Many fans have been quite harsh with Taylor, and sometimes he has earned this, but KU would not be anywhere near as good as they are without him.  While his uneven play will undoubtedly cost the Jayhawks a win or two, his athleticism and skills with certainly win the Jayhawks many more games than he will lose.  He has already done so.  I think fans need to accept Taylor for what he is and be glad he plays for us and not someone else.

Jeff Withey has been better than I ever thought he would be.  While he is not a perfect player, he offers so much that is positive to this team.  I think he has been the biggest key to the success of his team thus far, more than any other single player.  The starting line up is rounded out by a couple of players in Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford who have developed into decent role players.  While I think both are underachievers on the offensive end, both have been playing terrific defense and in Self’s system, this is as important as scoring points.  EJ especially needs to gain offensive confidence if the Jayhawks hope to go very deep into the NCAA tournament.

The bench is where Self’s recruiting shortcomings really rears its ugly head.  Self is basically stealing minutes of rest with just three players, none of which are really good enough to be playing regularly in a conference as good as the Big XII.  Conner Teahan is the most disappointing because he is supposed to be a three point specialist and he has struggled mightily most of the season.  Let’s face facts here – if Teahan isn’t hitting 3’s, he isn’t contributing much.  His defense is barely adequate and he often looks overmatched on both ends of the court.  He does hustle and rebound but most times, it is not enough.  Kevin Young and Justin Wesley are both just foul fodder.  There have been few seasons when either of these guys would have been good enough to see any court time at KU.  Again, they work hard but just fall short of being skilled enough to make much more than an occasional positive contribution.

This team reminds me a little of the 1987-1988 champions.  Each features one incredible player of the year candidate and not a whole lot else.  Each team had some big ups and downs throughout the season.  This biggest difference is that this squad has overachieved most of the season.  They have been a ranked team all year.  They still have a great chance to win another league championship.  I can not predict at this time how I think they will do in the NCAA tournament.  I can easily see this team losing in one of the first two rounds.  When a team is as shallow as this one is, a single game can easily be influenced heavily and negatively, by foul trouble or a slight injury.  If KU would lose early in the tourney this season, I would be disappointed but not overly surprised.  Self’s teams do have a history of early exits in the tournament.

On the other hand, we all know perfectly well that a single player can throw a team over his shoulder and carry them to the promise land.  We have seen it firsthand.  T-Rob could be this kind of player.  Robinson also has a very talented caddy in Taylor, who could easily go on a six-game hot streak and propel KU right into the Final Four and maybe even to a championship.  Coach Bill Self has a history here too.  We all know he has a championship under his belt as well as some of those early exits. 

I think if this turns out to be KU’s down year and Coach Self learns from his past mistakes in recruiting, as it appears he has, we as KU fans should feel very fortunate.  There are a lot of schools out there who love to be ranked in the top ten and be tied for first in their conference in a down season.  This may very well be Self’s greatest coaching job.  He has worked miracles with a team with very few BCS-type players.  As KU fans, we are definitively spoiled rotten.  I, for one, don’t mind.   I am looking forward to the last few weeks of the regular season and the tourney season.  I will cheer the Jayhawks on for however long they last in the post season and I will probably be disappointed and a little mad if, or when, we lose.  Yet, I wouldn’t want to follow any other team or coach.  Rock Chalk!

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