The Most Under-Appreciated Royal

George Brett is undeniably the greatest hitter in the history of the Kansas City Royals.  Brett accumulated 3,154 hits, 665 doubles, 137 triples (yeah, you read that right), and 317 home runs.  He had 1,583 runs, 1596 rbi, and a .305 average on route to a first ballot Hall of Fame career.  As far as the Royals are concerned, no player is even close and I think Brett would be listed on most lists as a top 3 all-time third baseman, even though he played a lot of games at first and DH. 

The Royals have a hitter on their team right now that compares favorable to Brett at the same age.  No, it’s not phenom Eric Hosmer.  No, it’s not emerging Alex Gordon.  It is the veteran Billy Butler.  It seems like Billy “Country Breakfast” Butler has been around forever but did you know Butler just celebrated his 26^th birthday less than two weeks ago?  He has amassed some really impressive statistics at a very young age. 

George Brett basically got started a year earlier than Butler.  Butler got 390 AB at the age of 21 while Brett received 41 AB at 20 and 486 AB at 21 years of age.  For comparative purposes, I am going by games.  Brett had 731 games by the end of 1978, when he was 25.  Butler has 712 games through 04/28/2012, after just turning 26.  There isn’t that much difference in age between these two hitters after a similar number of games played

Brett had 3114 PA to Butlers 2947 at this stage.  Brett had an amazing 2850 AB with 870 hits.  He had led the AL in both of those categories twice by the time he was 24 years old.  Billy has 2653 AB and 789 hits.  Brett’s average in that time was .305 (a match for his career) and Butler is hitting .297.  The biggest thing that these numbers illustrate is that in his early 20’s, George Brett was already a hitting star.  We all know he was playing on a great team, one that won 3 division titles during this time.  Butler has been in the middle of the lineup for some of the worst teams in the majors so far in his career. 

If you delve deeper though, Butler compares even more favorably in some of the other stats.  Butler has 191 doubles to Brett’s 169.  Keep in mind that George Brett is 6^th all time in doubles.  Butler has been criticized that he doesn’t hit for power, yet he has out homered Brett during this stretch 79 to 51.  In fact, Butler has more extra base hits than Brett during these similar periods of their careers, 279 to 273.  This is despite the fact that Brett already had an incredible 53 triples by the end of 1978. 

(An interesting side note – George Brett ranks 67^th in triples with 137.  Of players who played in a significant number of games after 1970, only Lou Brock and teammate Willie Wilson hit more triples than Brett.  I think this is one of the more amazing stats of Brett’s career because he only stole 201 bases – he was not known as a speedster at all.)

As I mentioned before, Brett was in the middle of a terrific lineup and he scored 413 runs in those early years while Butler is quite a bit behind him with 321.  Butler is as slow on the base paths as any player you will see, plus Brett hit himself into scoring position a lot more with all of those triples.  This being said, Butler has more RBI through this point in their careers, 389 to 354, and impressive stat for Butler. 

I am not saying that Billy Butler is the player George Brett was.  Brett played in a much different era, on a much different team.  Butler will be forever cursed by the reality that he is a DH.  My point to this exercise is that Royals fans have been slow to embrace Butler as a favorite.  I think this is a mistake.  Butler is a consummate hitter and the ultimate leader of the Royals youth movement.  Butler is a very similar type of hitter to Brett.  His home run power will eventually develop, just like Brett’s did.  Even so, just like Brett’s, Butler’s power will probably top out around 30.  Butler will obviously never hit the triples King George did but his doubles’ numbers could be comparable.  The terrific stat site baseball-reference.com, has a great feature where they break down players careers into 162 game averages.  This is a good tool for comparative purposes.  Taking a close look at this, George Brett does have a slight edge over Butler in nearly every category.  That advantage though, is slight. 

George Brett was a first ballot Hall of Famer who received over 90% votes on that first ballot.  It is doubtful that Butler will play into his 40’s but I will tell you something.  As long as Butler continues to hit like a poor man’s George Brett, I want him penciled in my lineup everyday at DH.  Fans need to start appreciating Billy Butler.  The man can hit.

Check out other small market baseball news at bigbotherbaseballproject.blogspot.com and get movie and TV reviews at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com.  Follow me on twitter @jawsrecliner

A Disastrous Start

I know, I know.  There are still a lot of games before we even get out of April.  I know there shouldn’t be any panic yet.  I know it’s a long season.  I also know the Kansas City Royals have gotten off to a disastrous start to the 2012 season.

Kansas City was filled with hope this spring.  A franchise that has struggled with ineptitude on and off the playing field looked to finally be turning a corner.  While few expected the Royals to challenge the divisional powerhouse Detroit Tigers, many believed the hometown team would actually field a competitive squad and maybe work themselves into the top 2 or 3 in the AL Central.  While this is certainly still a possibility, it is looking less and less likely.

The Royals began the season stocked with home grown talent well respected by other organizations.  The youth on offense seemed poise for a step forward in development.  The bullpen was well stocked with live arms and terrific talent.  The rotation was still the weak spot but even that bunch seemed hopeful of improvement. 

Things are not working out.  Optimism was still high after the Royals started the season with a successful 3-3 road trip through Los Angeles and Oakland.  A closer look though, gave plenty of warning of the disastrous things ahead.  All three of the Royals’ losses were bad ones.  On opening day against the Angels, it was a 0-0 ball game in the 8^th when the bullpen melted down and allowed 5 runs.  The offense remained dormant and was shut out.  The offense sparked to life over the next 2 games and the weak rotation held strong and Kansas City survived the talented Angels by taking the series 2-1.

In game four in Oakland, The Royals fielded a weak offensive line-up and were shut out again.  Worse yet, they had three base runners thrown out on the base paths, locking up the 0-1 loss.  Young Danny Duffy was brilliant in the next game and the Royals’ staff put up the first shut out of their own.  In the final game of the west coast trip, things flew apart.  After scratching out a 4-3 lead in the 12^th inning, closer Jonathan Broxton got the first out in the bottom of the 12^th then defensive wizard Alcides Escobar booted a grounder, Broxton walked the next two batters, then inexplicably hit the next two hitters on consecutive pitches and the Royals fell hard, 4-5, allowing 2 runs on no hits.

Kansas City promptly returned home to the excited fans in Kaufman Stadium, where the Royals promptly lost each of the seven games they have played in their home stadium.  Nothing has gone right.  The rotation has imploded, the offense stalled, and the bullpen has failed time and time again.  Everything has piled up against the snake bitten team, everything from bad defense, bad base running, bad starting pitching, no clutch hitting, a bullpen incapable of closing out, and in some instances, just some plain old bad luck.  It has been as frustrating stretch of games as any ever for an organization that has been awful for two and a half decades. 

The Royals claim there is no panic but it is there.  Kansas City dug a deep hole that is much worse than even the 3-10 would indicate.  KC has to win 14 of their next 21 home games just to get back to .500 at home – a stretch that would take them well into June.  What are the chances they can play .667 at home over the next month and a half, with nearly half of those games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and D-Backs?  It is not looking good.  The Royals have already played 7 of their games against teams they hoped to be either better than or at the very least, even with.  They are 1-6 in those games against Oakland, Cleveland, and Toronto so far. 

Very few of the Royals have stood out on an individual basis.  Bruce Chen, Danny Duffy, and Billy Butler have performed well but no one else has excited fans on a regular basis thus far.  There has been little consistency unless it is the bad kind.  For this team to turn it around, several players need to step forward and perform well.  Numerous guys need to take a giant step forward in their development if anything positive can be saved this season.  This can all happen but the likelihood becomes more remote with each horrible outing.  Maybe the Kansas City Royals can start their turnaround tonight.

Catch other small market news at bigbrotherbaseballproject.com and get movie and TV reviews at jawsrecliner.com.  Follow me on twitter @jawsrecliner

Opening Day Royal Predictions

Making predictions before the season starts is kind of a worthless endeavor but as baseball fans, it sure is fun.  We will quickly forget those predictions on which we missed the target and humbly claim expertise on those which prove correct.  Hey, we all do it, so today, I’m going to have some fun and throw my darts.  I will take a look at the Royals and make my predictions for their season. This will give you a little idea what to look for in 2012.

CATCHER – The Royals will live with the Humberto Quintero/Brayan Pena platoon for a couple of months.  I think the estimation of Salvador Perez’s return not being until late June is conservative.  I look for him to return in late May or early June.  Whichever catcher maintains his roster spot when Perez returns may get a few games as Salvador works himself back into the lineup but will see little action late in the season.

1B – Eric Hosmer will be a star eventually.  While I think he will make strides in that direction, he won’t make it this season.  He will approach .300 and I expect about 22 Home Runs.  His defense, which graded out poorly last season, will be much improved this year.  Consider him a very good player who gains much needed experience in 2012.

2B – The Royals will finally realize that grit does not win baseball games and finally get rid of Chris Getz.  This decision will be quickened by Johnny Giavotella, who again tears up AAA pitching.  Gio will make a return to the Royals in late May and will hit around .260 with some pop.  I am scared Getz will again fail and instead of bringing up Giavotella, the Royals will make Yuniesky Betancourt the everyday second baseman.  Yuck!!!

3B – Mike “Moose” Moustakus will actually become an above average 3-bagger.  He will not hit for the average Hosmer will but could actually develop more power.  Moose will push his average up to around .275 and will push toward 25 HR.  He won’t be as consistent as Hosmer either, but will offer good power in 2012.

SS – Alcides Escobar will continue making watching defense fun.  This dude is spectacular.  Hitting Coach Kevin Seitzer will continue to mold Escobar into a solid line drive hitter.  .265 with 30 steals at the bottom of the order will spark the offense.

LF – Alex Gordon just inked a nice contract and will continue to be a fan favorite.  I look for his average to drop toward the .280 range and for his home runs to peak over the topside of 20.  He will continue to lead off and will prove his Gold Glove was no fluke.

CF – Lorenzo Cain will turn into a solid starting center fielder this season.  His speed and glove will make us forget the Melk Man, even if his bat doesn’t match Melky’s breakout 2011 season.  Manager Ned Yost loves to run, so Cain may steal 25 bases.  Fifteen dingers and a .275 average would satisfy me.

RF – Jeff Francoeur will settle into the player he was a year ago.  He will never be a star but 20 homers and 15 steals is pretty solid.  Frenchy seems to love working with Kevin Seitzer and has learned to spray the ball, improving his average.  Frenchy will always take his hacks but is a little more under control now.  His incredible arm makes up for Francoeur being a little over rated defensively but he is still above average in right.

DH – I think Billy Butler will become a star in 2012.  Country Breakfast can flat out hit and he is being driven by improved offensive players around him.  Butler will finally realize his power and turn some of those doubles into round trippers.  .300/28/110 is a realistic line for Butler and I will stand by that prediction.

The Bullpen – Joakim Soria is gone for the year (maybe for good as the Royals will never pick up an $8 million option).  Jonathan Broxton was named the closer last night but he has yet to go in back-to-back games and has a history of injuries.  I think Greg Holland may eventually take the job and become very successful because he has the stuff and mentality to succeed as the closer.  Either way, they are an impressive 1-2 punch late in the game.  A guy to watch is Kelvin Herrera.  This kid has eye popping stuff and will probably serve ass the 7^th inning guy.  He will pile up strikeouts as he toils in anonymity in KC.  This group is a strength and will continue to excel.

(*Note – In all honesty, I wrote this yesterday and predicted Holland would be named closer and would not relinquish the job.  Technically, I am already 0 for 1.)

The Rotation – Better known as the “reason the Royals don’t have a chance to win the AL Central”.  This being said, I do not think it will be as bad as people think.  Luke Hochevar is on the brink of a breakout season.  Jonathan Sanchez is a K machine.  Danny Duffy will be inconsistent but will take a giant step forward.  Bruce Chen will be solid if not woefully unspectacular but he won’t match his 2011 numbers.  I have a hard time believing Luis Mendoza will fool major league hitters on a regular basis (hope I’m wrong).  The biggest wild card here will be what happens when Felipe Paulino returns from the DL.  My prediction is he will go to the bullpen until Mendoza starts getting pummeled and will again look good as a starter.  As the season progresses, with its inevitable injuries and poor performances, youngsters Mike Montgomery (if he can somehow find a way to manage the strike zone) and Jake Odorizzi could make late season appearances. 

Overall – I think the AL Central is a weak division with one elite team in the Tigers.  The other four teams are trying to rebuild to some extent.  I predict that the Royals’ young offense and slightly improved rotation will be enough for Kansas City to take second place in the division, edging out Cleveland and Chicago.  Too much has to go right for KC to win more than half their games but I am going to predict 80 wins for the Royals in 2012.  With the emergence of Butler, Hosmer, Gordon, and Moustakus, the Royals will be an offensive force but their rotation will continue not to scare anyone.

Billy Butler is my pick for the Royal Player of the Year and Luke Hochevar as the Pitcher of the Year.

There you go.  After the season is over, I will only recognize those predictions in which I was somewhat close.  

Check out other great small market baseball news at bigbrotherproject.com and get movie and TV reviews at jawsrecliner.com.  Follow me on twitter @jawsrecliner

Missed Opportunities for the Jayhawks

The Kansas Jayhawks had a terrific season.  I think they were ranked high in the preseason polls and picked to win the Big XII due more to their reputations and history rather than true talent.  Yet, the Jayhawks played to their ranking and preseason predictions.  They won their 8^th straight conference title and were ranked in the top 10 for most of the season.  They earned a number 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  While these accomplishments don’t seem like a surprise, I have to honestly admit they really exceeded my true expectations.

KU featured a fine starting five and a very thin bench.  When the season started, Tyshawn Taylor had more career minutes played than all of his teammates combined at Kansas.  Jayhawk fans are used to a solid rotation of 8 or 9 almost every season.  This team played its bench only when it was necessary.  Yet, they found a way to succeed and play to the seemingly unrealistic preseason predictions.  Mirroring the toughness of their head coach, Bill Self, Kansas fought and scraped their way to success.  Few games were easy or runaways and the Jayhawks seemed to be playing from behind much of the season.  They found a way to win game after game. 

The NCAA Tournament followed the established pattern for the Jayhawks.  They didn’t play well in the first halves and those kids were able to turn things around in the second halves, making furious comebacks in several postseason games.  Even in the championship game, the Jayhawks struggled early and found themselves digging themselves out of a hole late.

Kentucky is a fine team.  There has been little doubt the Wildcats were the best team throughout a down year in college basketball.  They were young but talented and athletic.  Coach John Calipari got them to buy into his system and to play defense, a deathly combination for the opposition.

There is no doubt Kentucky was more talented and athletic, player for player, than Kansas.  The Wildcats dominated the first half and it was all the Jayhawks could do not to be blown out and embarrassed.  KU popped out of the locker room after the half just as they did several other games.  Kansas made a couple of shots and made a couple of defensive stops.  In my opinion, the key play of the game was when Jeff Withey failed to get an easy dunk through the cords early in the second half.  KU had cut into the lead and their fans were just starting to feel the momentum swing.  If that dunk goes down, who knows if the outcome would have been different.  So much happened after that play.  Immediately though, UK scored a basket and snuffed the Jayhawks’ growing momentum.  I want to make it clear that I am not blaming Withey for this loss.  Without him, KU would never have been even close to the championship game.  It just happened to be his missed dunk that I felt was the key.

From that point, KU ever so slowly scraped their way back into the game but never really gained that feeling of momentum.  The Wildcats seemed to be on the verge of allowing the Jayhawks back into the game mentally but with that failed dunk, Kansas seemed to lose a little something.  They eventually cut their deficit to 5 points but never closer.  UK kept them at arms length and eventually outlasted the comeback.

But that missed dunk wasn’t the only missed opportunity for the Jayhawks.  KU missed 3 dunks and 13 lay-ups through the course of the game.  The fantastic Anthony Davis had a lot to do with Kansas’ tightness around the rim.  Still, KU only lost by 8 points.  If KU had cashed in on just a few of those missed chances, things could have been much different.  Make the dunks (the highest percentage shot possible) and just a couple of the missed bunnies, then maybe there would have been a different result in the outcome.

It is futile to play the “what if” game.  It serves no purpose and it does take away from a great performance by the Wildcats.  I mention these key blown opportunities because it shows that the game wasn’t that far from having a different result. 

I heard a talking head yesterday speaking about how this only proves that Kentucky is the best program and how John Calipari is by far the best coach in college basketball.  All of his arguments sounded pre-written.  I think if KU would have won, this guy would have just replaced Kentucky with Kansas and John Calipari with Bill Self.  His arguments would have held weight for whichever school and coach, depending on who won the game.  He went on and on about now it wasn’t even close to which school and coach was best.  He said no one could argue the point anymore.  My point is that the discussion is still closer than this guy wanted to admit.  Three dunks and a couple of lay ups and who knows.  Kentucky had a fine season and played a heck of a championship game and they deserved the title but KU wasn’t that far behind.

Bill Self proved that he must be counted among the game’s finest coaches.  He has shown in the past that he is a top notch recruiter and has been able to get top players to adhere to his system.  He proved this season he could coach a team with less talent but with huge hearts and still win.  Coach Self and this team should be very proud of their season and the final results.  I know the fans are.  The worst thing is that we now have to wait seven months for the next edition of the Kansas Jayhawks.

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Signings for the Future

The Royals’ General Manage Dayton Moore seems to be taking a page out of John Hart’s General Managing handbook.  Hart, of course, was the GM for the Cleveland Indians in the 1990’s.  Hart found himself loaded with a stable of young stud players such as Kenny Lofton, Carlos Baerga, Jim Thome, Omar Vizuel, and Albert Belle, just to name a few.  Hart aggressively signed his young players to early, long term contracts, locking them up and buying out their arbitration years.  The Indians were very successful and these players made the Indians an AL powerhouse in the 90’s.

Dayton Moore has spent much of this spring locking up some of his younger players to long term contracts.  Moore started off by signing 21-year old catching phenom Salavador Perez to a club friendly, 5 years, $7 million deal, plus club options for 3 more years and up to nearly $20 million more.  The Royals are forecasting Perez to be an above average MLB catcher and were willing to buy out his arbitration years at slightly below market value.  If Perez proves to be a catching stud muffin, the Royals will be able to lock him up for 3 more years at below market value.  Of course, Perez promptly went down with a torn meniscus, which will set back his development 3 months.  Still, Moore’s thinking was sound.

Next, the Royals bought shortstop Alcides Escobar out of his arbitration years with a 4-year, $10 million signing.  In addition, the Royals hold two options years for an extra combined $11.75 million.  Escobar may never be a great hitter but he is so incredible with his glove.  The Royals have NEVER had a shortstop with the defensive skills of Escobar.  I love watching this dude with the leather.  He makes the routine plays and he makes the fantastic plays.  His range is terrific in every direction and he has a rocket launcher for an arm.  It wouldn’t surprise me if Escobar eventually develops into a guy who can consistently hit around .275 with 10-12 home runs.  He has the speed to swipe 25-30 bases a year as well.  Make no mistake though; this contract for his defense.  The Royals again guaranteed long term money in exchange for locking up a top notch defensive player through the arbitration years and if Escobar can improve his overall hitting, Kansas City will have a terrific shortstop below market value through 2017.

This last week, Moore finally locked down Alex Gordon.  Gordon was drafted second overall in 2005 and was immediately (unfairly) crowned the savior of the organization.  After ripping through minor league pitching, Alex Gordon struggled in the majors with both poor performances and injuries.  At times, he looked like a colossal bust.  In 2011, he finally broke out, hitting .303 with 23 homers and 87 RBI and winning a Gold Glove in left field.  Gordon finally showed the talent that made him a top two draft pick.  Moore signed Gordon to a 4-year, $37.5 million deal, with a player option for a 5^th year for an additional $12.5 million.  This signing was as much of a public relations coup as anything else.  Fans wanted Alex Gordon signed long term.  The Royals went out on a limb with Gordon because he has only had one very good year.  Now he is locked up for 4 years. If he performs as he did in 2011, this contract pays Gordon fair market value.  If Gordon falters, Moore and the Royals may regret this deal.

What is important to the long suffering fans of the Royals, who have watched the team ship off their best players year after year with poor returns, is that Kansas City is putting forth the effort and money to lock these players up long term.  Another star, Billy Butler, was extended in 2011 and he is locked up through 2014, with a club option for 2015.  Young stars like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakus have just finished their rookie seasons and are under team control for 5 years.  Dayton Moore has a core set of players he can build upon.  By signing these longer contracts, he is trying to fray the costs down the road.  It will be difficult for Kansas City to ever have a $100 million payroll, so taking a few chances on some players now can only be a good thing.  Even if some of these players do not pan out completely, these contracts are not going to be crippling.  The Royals want to try to keep some long term cash in reserve in case Hosmer and Moustakus turn into the players the organization hope they can.  I am sure Moore is making an effort to lock up Hosmer as well, but signing a guy of that caliber of talent will not be easy. 

It is a delicate balance for small markets teams to lock up cash for long periods of time and to be competitive.  Teams like the Royals have a hard time convincing stars to sign with their team and coming up with enough money.  Small market teams have to develop their own players and find a way to keep them long term.  Two decades ago, John Hart made up the blueprints; Dayton Moore is trying to copy his results.  Hopefully, he can add a World Series Championship that eluded Hart and the Indians.

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