A New Opportunity

I have been a little slow updating this and I apologize to loyal readers.  A few weeks ago, I accepted a position writing for KC Kingdom (kckingdom.com). It is a site dedicated to KC area sports, including the Royals, Chiefs, and Jayhawks - the topics I write the most about.   I was originally brought on a general staff writers, covering a multitude of topics, and I will still be doing that to a certain extent, but now I will be writing more about the Royals than anything else. 

I appreciate everyone who read my stuff on a regular basis.  It was because of your support that I have been given some opportunities to cultivate my writings skills to the point where I have been asked to write for bigger and bigger sites.  I ask that everyone follow me to KC Kingdom.  That site has a hard working staff that produces good work.  I appreciate your continued support and feel free to follow me on twitter for my posting updates.

I intend to to continue with Jaws Thoughts From The Recliner, when I have time to go see another movie.  I probably won't be posting much to this site, my original foray into the blogosphere.  There just won't be enough time.  If I have some random thoughts that don't fit into KC Kingdom's format, then I may pour those thoughts out here from time to time, but it won't be a regular thing.  Please continue to read  my stuff at kckingdom.com and jawsrecliner.com.

Thanks for reading...

Joel

Santa Self

Santa Self has delivered us another great gift this year.  Despite losing two top players from a National Champion finalist team last year in Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor, Santa Self has wrapped up a team heavy with seniors and freshmen that continues to get stronger.  A big win on road in Columbus, Ohio last Saturday was a holiday treat for us all.

This 2012-2013 college basketball season is proving to be a weak one, not only nationally, but in the Big XII as well.  Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News has the Big XII ranked 8^th among conferences, behind such power leagues as the Mountain West, Atlantic 10, Pac-12, and the round ball challenged SEC.  It wasn’t too long ago that the Big XII had moved up into the top two or three basketball conferences.  Missouri jumping to the SEC certainly didn’t help.  Even though the Tigers have the 146^th ranked strength of schedule (Rivals.com’s RPI Ratings), they are 10-1 and would probably be Kansas’ biggest challengers this season if they had stayed put.  Missouri and Texas A&M were replaced by a horrible basketball school in TCU (only scored 31 in a game this season and have scored less than 50 in several others) and a very disappointing West Virginia, 6-5, 111 RPI).  The conference only has three teams in the RPI top 40 – Kansas (2), Oklahoma St. (20), and Oklahoma (25).  Only three teams have played a schedule ranked in the top 60 – Kansas (3), OU (13), and Baylor (26).  Three teams have schedules ranked lower than 200 – Kansas St. (215), TCU (283), and Texas Tech (298).  I have long believed that many of the Big XII schools historically don’t schedule a tough enough slate.  KU and Texas usually are the only teams that play stronger teams on a regular basis. 

Be that as it may, Kansas is ranked 7^th in the AP and 2^nd in the RPI with the 3^rd toughest schedule in the country.  I think Santa Self has done a great job of picking some of the strongest mid-major teams year in and year out to play.  I think that is why his strength of schedule is so high.  Throw in teams like Colorado and Temple, on top of the likes of Michigan State and Ohio State, and he has a competitive schedule against several good to decent teams Kansas should beat. 

Santa Self also does a terrific job being patient with his teams.  He lets them grow as players throughout the pre-conference schedule.  His teams generally make a leap forward about this time of year as he has much more practice time between semesters to put in more plays.  Kansas usually hits their stride come the conference part of the schedule.  Barring something disastrous, Kansas should stroll away through the Big XII this season and win their 9^th straight conference title.  That would be an amazing accomplishment.

One of the things Santa Self does best is to reload each year.  Year after year, KU loses a big chunk of their points, rebounds, assists, and minutes to graduation (it should also be noted that Santa Self's players graduate at a very high rate) or the NBA.  Several higher echelon schools go through this.  It also seems that Santa Self has something left in his stocking for the next season, even when it doesn’t always appear that he does.  This year, he was left with four seniors, three of whom started in the National Championship game last April. 

After KU beat Richmond a couple of weeks ago, Chris Mooney, the Spiders’ coach, said he was surprised when he started watching film on the Jayhawks.  He couldn’t believe a school on the level of Kansas would have four senior starters.  In this day and age of one and done players, the top tier teams are often hit the worst by this.  One of the CBS announcers on Saturday, I think it was Greg Anthony, also mentioned the anomaly of a school like Kansas having four seniors during the Ohio State telecast.  Santa Self does a terrific job of getting a lot of his players that are not one and done talent to stay the course and convinces them that they can be major contributors down the road.  He does it year after year.  Players who don’t play much as freshmen or sophomores end up playing huge roles on very good teams by the time they are juniors and seniors.  Santa Self and his staff are obviously coaching these kids up, even when they are not playing a lot of minutes in games.  It always seems to pay off.

This team has the four seniors, one sophomore with significant playing time in Nadir Tharpe, and the other five guys who get to play in varying degrees are freshmen (not counting the walk-ons or junior Justin Wesley).  The four seniors are not the most talented or athletic players in the country but they all do many things very well.  They all bring something important to the table.  They have all been role players in the past but are now the leaders.  They all know what Santa Self requires of them and they work together to win games.  Talking heads always go on about how important senior leadership is come NCAA tournament time.  That theory will be tested in March as Kansas tries for back to back Final Fours. 

Kansas can look very good (Colorado, Belmont, Richmond) but they are happy to win ugly too (Chattanooga, Ohio State).  The ugly wins don’t count less than the pretty ones.  Kansas has a very good chance, because of their strong non-conference schedule and an apparently weaker than usual Big XII, to mount a pretty big win total by tournament time.  Unless something unforeseen happens (never want to count chickens before they hatch), Kansas should be in a prime position to garner a #1 seed, and no lower than a #2 seed.  With senior leadership, it would a great gift to the fans for the Jayhawks to return to the Final Four and maybe even the Finals.  Santa Self has delivered before; he can do it again.  Check your list Santa Self; we have been very good this year!

I hope everyone has a safe and happy holiday season!

Get TV and movie reviews at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and follow me on twitter @jawrecliner.  Thanks for reading.

Chiefs Ineptitude

I have been prepared to write this for a few weeks now but other things have pushed it to the back burner.  I am just going to knock this out and be done with the Chiefs for a couple of months.  This team has frustrated me to no end and I am ready for their season to be over.

The negatives on this team are seemingly infinite but there are four components that are the root cause to all else.  The first is ownership.  Long time legendary owner Lamar Hunt died in December, 2006.  In the six seasons since, Kansas City has won 4, 2, 4, 10, 7, and 2 games for a total of 29 wins against 65 losses (this doesn’t count the two more that are coming to end this season).  Clark Hunt has just run this franchise into the ground.  Even so, this organization has been going the wrong way for quite a while now.  The Chiefs only have four winning records in the last 15 seasons.  In that time, they have a record of 105-133 (44%).  They have won more than 9 only three times and more than 10 just once in the last decade and a half.  And there have been zero playoff wins.  While the Chiefs weren’t tearing up the league in Lamar Hunt’s final years, it is much worse now with the team only winning 31% of their games since his passing.  That is flat out not acceptable, especially when the team is reportedly well under the salary cap.  Where is that extra money going???

I think we can all agree Scot Pioli has been a total and utter failure ass the General Manager of the Chiefs.  I admit to being excited when he was hired but he hitched his horse to Matt Cassel as his guy at quarterback, his new Tom Brady.  The “Patriot Way” certainly works better if you have the real Tom Brady.  Pioli’s biggest failings stem from Cassel not being even close to Brady in talent and Pioli’s lack of admission of this simple fact.  Pioli has also failed twice in hiring head coaches. 

Pioli has also been a horrible talent evaluator and has not build up good NFL-talent level back-ups.  Injuries have crushed his teams.  Injuries are part of the game and that is why depth is so important.  The guys backing up the starters in a lot of the positions are not good players.  I am still befuddled by the fact KC entered the season with no one with experience at center on the roster to back up Rodney Hudson.  Ryan Lilja, who had never played center in the NFL has had to play center for most of the season.  He has struggled mightily at times just getting the ball snapped in a timely and accurate fashion.  I don’t blame him.  He was set up to fail.  As I watched the corps of wide receivers the Chiefs ran out onto the field against the Raiders, I am convinced Pioli isn’t even trying.  His eschewing Brandon Carr in the off season and offering a big contract to Stanford Routt, who couldn’t even last the season with this lackluster team, is proof enough of Pioli’s incompetence.  Of course, this is just highlighted by the quarterback position.

The next complete failure of this team is the Head Coach and his staff.  I know this stems from Pioli’s failure but these guys look like they have just given up.  The team doesn’t look disciplined or well drilled.  The offensive and defensive game plans look vanilla and uninspired.  This whole mess with Steve Breaston is just plain ridiculous.  He is by far the most accomplished wide receiver on the roster with Bowe hurt.  The fact he has not been active the last several weeks is just mind blowing.  Also, I have been disappointed in the lack of improvement from the defensive backs as a unit and individually.  I think we can all agree it is time for Crennel and his whole staff just to disappear, the sooner the better. 

Finally, the quarterback position has been awful.  I think Cassel and Brady Quinn would be serviceable back-ups but they are obviously not starting NFL quarterbacks.  You can’t really blame the players.  I think both of these guys are gutsy, tough guys who want to succeed but just aren’t starting caliber signal callers.  The fact that Pioli/Haley/Crennel couldn’t recognize this fact is why their teams have been so terrible.  There hasn’t even been an effort to upgrade the position in the present GM regime.  Every single person who knows anything about the game of football knows that it is very difficult to win consistently without good play from the quarterback position.  Teams have to always be thinking of the future of that position for their organization and the Chiefs just haven’t done that.

That is enough of the negative.  Those topics have been covered pretty well.  Heck, I called for Pioli and Crennel to be fired after the first loss to Oakland weeks ago.  It is only fair to mention some positives.  There have been a handful of good performances from this squad.

Derrick Johnson, Jamaal Charles, and Justin Houston all played very well.  These three guys have shown heart and toughness throughout the season.  I think rookie offensive linemen Jeff Allen and Donald Stephenson appear to be legitimate NFL linemen.  They have had games in which they haven’t looked good but I see enough from them to feel good they can be part of the future.  I also saw some things from Dontari Poe that indicates he can develop into a good starting defensive tackle.  He seldom gets enough push to disrupt the pocket and needs to do a better job clogging the middle on runs but he has improved as the season has progress and with more experience, one can certainly see he could end up being very good.  Late in the season, I even saw some improvement from Tyson Jackson – finally.  It is probably too little, too late but it was nice to at last see him make some plays on the field.    I think the defensive line is unquestioningly better than it was a year ago but still has a long way to go to be a solid unit.

That’s about it.  I can’t think of a single position other than those above in which I wasn’t disappointed.  Lack of improvement or plain lack of talent seemed to be the theme under the present regime.  What is sad for Chiefs fans is that is going to take time to right this ship.  It really bugs me that Kansas City stills employs Pioli and Crennel.  Hunt needs to be proactive and just let these guys go.  The longer he delays, the more he alienates fans.  The fans of this once proud franchise deserve better and they deserve it sooner rather than later.  Hunt needs to fire these guys and shoot for the moon with his next hire and that person needs to shoot for the moon when hiring a new head coach.  It has been a long season, a long six years, and it has stretched into a long 15 years.  It is time for Clark Hunt to give a little back to the city of Kansas City and give us a winner.

Catch movie and TV reviews at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com  and follow me on twitter @jawsrecliner.  Thanks for reading.

Royals Pull Trigger for Shields

I had a big Chiefs’ piece ready to go this morning but I woke up to find Royals’ news tearing up the world wide web and the radio airwaves.  After quivering in the bushes for weeks, afraid to make a big move, General Manager Dayton Moore finally went for it.  The Royals traded 4 minor leaguers to Tampa for  “Big Game” James Shields and Wade Davis.  Of course, two of the minor leagues were top prospect Wil Myers and the Royals’ top pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi.   This is where the argument comes in.

Kansas City just traded six plus years of control of a guy that hit 37 home runs in the minors in 2012 AND their top minor league pitcher with 6 years of control for two years of James Shields (committing $25 million) and five years of Wade Davis.  For an organization starved for future stars, that will be a bitter pill to swallow.  I get it.  I did not want the Royals to trade Wil Myers.  I am not sure adding Shields and Davis will win more games than having Franceour still in right field every day.  If Myers turns into a star and the Royals do not make the playoffs in the next two years, this trade will have been a disaster – in hindsight.  It is not a disaster right this minute.  

Wil Myers has a chance to be a superstar.  Few argue that point but we don’t know that for sure.  Phil Hyatt once hit 44 home runs in the minors for the Royals.  Phil Who Now?  Exactly.  With prospects, you just don’t know.  Not every prospect is Mike Trout.  Even if Myers turns into a star, the odds are against him contributing in a major way in his first two years.  BaseballHQ.com did a great 4-part series on the MLB success of players who made the top 100 prospect lists at some point.  To summarize, the rate wasn’t good.  That doesn’t mean Myers is going to fail; top 10 prospects fair better than those outside the top 10.  My guess he will be at least an above average MLB player, and possibly better than that but maybe not until year three.  That is pure speculation on my part.  Odorizzi has question marks, too.  He struggled in AAA to pitch deep into games and that would be a big problem at the major league level.  The Royals already have plenty of pitchers in that mold.  At the very least, Davis is on the same talent level as Odorizzi but much farther along in his development.  Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard were throw-ins here and while I don’t know much about the latter other than he is a power hitting third baseman nowhere near ready for the majors, the former is obviously in need of a scenery change.  I wish them good luck in their new organization.  

James Shields is the type of pitcher the Royals desperately need - a staff anchor who takes the ball every five days and pitches a lot of innings at a good level.   BaseballHQ.com took statistical data and came up with a list of staff anchors for the 2013 season, based on performances over the past two years.  Only 8 pitchers met their criteria.  One of them was James Shields.  A guy like Shields, in addition to Guthrie and Santana, should take the pressure off the bullpen.  The bullpen has been great but just how long can it succeed working as hard as it has the last two seasons?  This team is much stronger today than it was yesterday.  Wade Davis could be very important because he is probably better than Chen, Mendoza, and Hochevar and should move right into the number four slot.  Now all those #5 pitchers will be slotted where they belong.  Now maybe Moore can trade one of those guys for some outfield help (don’t expect much in return, though).  This also relieves any pressure there might be to rush Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino back too quickly.  These two important guys will have time to build up to their full strength and if things play out right, maybe they are ready to contribute to meaningful games in September and October (I’ve always been the optimist).

I know we all love the possibility of Wil Myers.  I know I do.  The fans of this team want heroes and Myers looks like he could have been a big one but this team is loaded with possible contenders.  Billy Butler can still hit.  Alex Gordon is still an above average, under appreciated player.  Hosmer and Moustakus are still very young, developing players.  Escobar and Perez are still among the best at their positions.  If these young players don’t improve and take the next step forward, it won’t matter how good James Shields, or how good Wil Myers may be.  If there isn’t an improvement in the hitting among the youngsters, the Royals are not going to compete anyway.  Now, if these guys all do take that step forward, I like the Royals’ chances with James Shields on the mound.  

Shields comes with risks (he throws a lot of innings and has shown inconsistency in the past) but there isn’t a pitcher out there who doesn’t come with a fair share baggage and risk.  There is always a chance something goes wrong (Kansas City has had more than its share of bad luck over the decades) but I am going to be positive and look at the fact the Royals got a top of the rotation arm and a solid number 4 starter with upside.

Let’s dream a little here.  What if the Royals’ young guys take big steps toward reaching their potential?  What if Guthrie pitches like he did with KC last year?  What if Santana throws up numbers like 2011?  What if Shields has opportunities to earn his nickname in powder blue?  This is a lot of “what ifs” but I am going to choose to be optimistic and positive going into 2013.  I love the feeling of hope going into each Spring Training.

I wrote just a few days ago that Dayton Moore wasn’t getting anything done and I put owner David Glass’ feet to the fire about pinching pennies.  It would be terribly hypocritical of me to berate them for going out and getting a couple of good starting pitchers, including a top of the rotation guy, for a bunch of minor leaguers.  You have to give up something to get something.  Royals made the move they needed to make and now have a chance to compete in the AL Central.  Maybe the Royals become that small market team in 2013 that challenges for the division title like Oakland and Baltimore last year.  Maybe now it is our time.

Moore and Glass are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.  Fans are just not going to be happy.  Well, this fan is much happier today than he was four days ago; I can assure you of that.  They pulled the trigger and only time will tell if it will work successfully.  Only in hindsight will we be able to judge the success of this move but this morning, I am glad to be a Royals’ fan.

Be sure to watch ESPN’s 30 for 30 “You Don’t Know Bo”.  It is outstanding.

Check out my movie and television reviews at jawsrecliner.com and get twitter updates for my blogs @jawsrecliner.  Thanks for reading. 

An Empty Glass

I was all prepared to write up an article about how the Kansas City Royals made out at the MLB Winter Meetings in Nashville this week.  I was ready to praise Dayton Moore for pulling off exactly the right move and I was equally prepared to blast the sometimes panicky General Manager for giving up too much for too little.  This article is going to unfold much differently than I had planned.

Let me start off with saying it was really nice to actually be in the discussions during the Hot Stove season.  Year after year, I watch the pinnacle of the Hot Stove season with interest only as a fan in general.  The Royals seldom participate in this annual extravaganza in any tangible manner.   Not so this year as rumor after rumor shot through the world wide web, keeping me checking my twitter page for days.  The rumor mill had been churning out possibilities for weeks leading up to the Winter Meetings and everyone knew the Royals were ready to make a big splash.  MLB Network and ESPN talking heads were all reporting that Kansas City was going to be a big player during these Winter Meetings because of their dearth of starting pitching and their perceived plethora of young bats, including the top hitting prospect in all of baseball.  

The biggest fear for me was that General Manager Dayton Moore would trade a key piece of a below average offense to fill a spot in a horrible rotation.  Worse, that he would trade a guy who could possibly hit 30+ homeruns for several years for the services of a good pitcher for just two years.  I am not saying there isn’t a situation where that might not be a good thing but it has to be the right deal.  I am tired of the Royals always promising they will be better next year.  I want them to win this year.  When is the vaunted Process going to pay dividends?

As it turned out, all those exciting rumors amounted to nothing.  Whispers in the wind, if you will.  Despite reassurances from all the talking heads, the Royals talked a big game but, as usual, didn’t deliver.  They didn’t even add anyone via the Rule 5 draft.  The Winter Meetings as a whole turned out rather uneventful, for the Royals specifically and most teams in general, other than maybe the Giants and Red Sox.

So yesterday, the post meeting hangover set in.  Dayton Moore was flying home and it didn’t look like there was going to be any excitement.  Then – BANG.  Bob Dutton from the Kansas City Star dropped a bomb on all of us die hard Royals’ fans.  A few weeks ago, Royals’ owner David Glass talked to certain media members and declared that basically the Royals can’t be profitable if their payroll is over $70 million dollars a year and that he had subsidized MLB payroll out of his own pocket several times over the years.  Every person who could type and post on the internet, some of them very respected baseball people, disclaimed this statement as a blatant falsehood.  Even Forbes magazine provided numbers much differently.

Instead of a soft cap of $70 million to work with, the Royals, according to Dutton’s article yesterday afternoon, provided by Royals’ officials, the Royals’ breakeven point was closer to $60 million because the $70 million included the 40-man roster, draft signings, and international signings, and that Kansas City was already over budget for its payroll for 2013.  Twitter blew up.  Radios exploded.  There was cyber chaos everywhere in the Kansas City Metro area.  David Glass, whom many already believed was lying before, now jumped up into Richard M. Nixon and Pinocchio levels in the pantheon of liars.  No one I read or listened to believed these numbers were anywhere near accurate.

Then the “Oops, my bad.”  Dutton retracted his article.  Some Royals official had given him the wrong data or something.  Whatever, but the number is still supposedly $70 million for the 35-man roster.  While everyone has recovered and calmed down, no one is buying that figure either.  Glass and other club officials claim he has not pocketed a dime from the Royals.  Forbes reported otherwise, claiming Glass has reaped profit to the tune of approximately $100 million since 2000.  That is a big disparity.  Let’s not forget that Glass bought the Royals for less than $100 million and it is now valued, according to Forbes, at more than $350 million.  I dare say, Mr. Glass, that is a tidy profit. 

With all the money that is pouring into the coffers via television contracts, which will increase dramatically in 2014, and other league generated shared revenues, plus the increased revenue from rising attendance, I can see no reason the Royals can’t have a payroll of around $90 million this year and $110 million in 2014.  Guys a lot smarter than I (check out ranyontheroyals.com for a very good financial breakdown for the Royals) have done the math and I can see nothing to dispute their numbers.  It is time, Mr. Glass, to piss or get the hell off the pot.  Help us field a winning team or sell it and take your quarter of a billion dollar profit and return to Arkansas.  

I wish there was a way we could see exactly what the numbers are.  I wish the teams that are playing in county or state funded stadiums had to provide financial statements to the public.  There needs to be a show of good faith.  Right now, there is no faith in David Glass as owner of the Kansas City Royals.  Few people believe his statements about the financial situation.  We as fans are tired of the constant losing and penny pinching.  Either loosen the purse strings or you may witness an empty, cavernous stadium this summer.  Well, you won’t witness it.  You’ll be safely tucked away in Arkansas or in your bigger-than-Rhode Island compound in Wyoming or Montana or wherever the heck it is, counting your money like King Midas.

Glass has never had an accurate reading of the pulse of the KC fans and he better have a thick skin if he doesn’t provide extra dollars this off season.  It is getting harder and harder to be a Royals fan.  I am tired of the heart break.  I love baseball and I love the Royals but I am close to giving up.  It’s up to you, Mr. Glass.  At least show us some effort.  I am begging you.

Check out my list of all-time favorite TV dramas at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and thanks for reading.

Jeremy Guthrie vs. the Stat Geeks

I use the term “stat geek” in only the most complimentary manner possible.  I am a stat geek.  I have been for years.  I was the kid who minded the stats books for the girls’ games before my games in junior high and high school.  I kept stats on my own video games.  I studied the back of baseball and football cards until I knew all the numbers.  When fantasy baseball rose to prominence in the 1980s, I was one of the first in line and I have been hooked ever since.

I love all the stats like the hard stats like home runs, stolen bases, RBI, etc.  I like the peripheral stats like on-base percentage, slugging percentage etc.  I like the trending skill stats like ground ball rate, contact rate, strikeouts per 9 innings, K/BB, batting average on ball in play, etc.  I even love algebraic stats like wins above replacement and runs above replacement.  So much of baseball – real and fantasy – is based on the projecting of stats through scientific and mathematical analysis.  We try to predict hard stats much more scientifically than we used to be analyzing players’ trending skills.  For example, if a hitter bats .320 for a season and he enjoyed an average of .360 on balls in play (batted balls in between the lines), we can predict with confidence that his batting average will drop the next year.  Throughout baseball history, the average on balls put in play is right around .300.  If our batter hit .360, we know he enjoyed extreme luck on batted balls.  The odds are very good that luck at that level will not continue for a second season, therefore his batting average will most likely drop.  The point is I love all of these stats and I use them all the time to analyze players.  Sometimes, though, the numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Now we come to the part of this post that I have rewritten three times this morning.  I keep falling into a deep explanation of stats and what separates similarly skilled players from one another.  That is not what I intended when I started this piece.  I decided to write this because I am ticked off at the reaction of all the stat geeks out there to the Royals signing Jeremy Guthrie, and also to their reaction to the Royals trading for Ervin Santana a couple of weeks ago.  There are several stat guys and bloggers out there that I have read and respected for years.  I still do but I have gotten very frustrated with them over the past few weeks.

I am not going to list all of the bloggers and their sites.  Let’s just say these are some very smart, very passionate guys.  Most are Royals fans but a couple others are just stat geeks.  Some are baseball guys – you know the talking heads on television.  Almost to a man these guys are ripping the Royals for the money they have committed to Santana and Guthrie.  Their point is the Royals could have spent their allotted free agent money more wisely.  My question to all of these guys is how?

Kansas City will pay Santana $11 million in 2013 (it’s 12 actually but they received a million form the Angels) and they will pay $5 million to Guthrie this season, $11 million in 2014, $9 million in 2015.  They have committed $36 million to receive 4 seasons of services (overlap in 2013).  I read a comment from one former GM, ragging on the Royals for paying $16 million to those two newly acquired pitchers.  He asked why they didn’t spend that money on Greinke or Anibal Sanchez.  This was an utterly stupid comment.  Neither of those pitchers, the best two options on the free agent market, are going to sign 1-year $16 million dollar deal with the Royals, or anyone else for that matter.  They are not going to sign a 2-year deal for $32 million deal either.  It would not surprise me if Greinke signs a 6-year, $120 million contract and I’m expecting at least 6 years and $90 million for Sanchez.  The Royals flat out can’t afford those contracts for that amount of years.

The next level of free agents is Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, and Kyle Lohse.  All of these three have their warts and are probably better than the two pitchers Kansas City added.  They are all probably going to command much bigger deals than what KC handed out.  There is still a chance the Royals can sign one of these guys but it is an outside chance because with such a limited market, these guys are probably going to be way over priced, more so than Guthrie.

Last night I got into a polite on-line argument with a stat guy about the length of Guthrie’s contract.  Another baseball guy, Rany Jazayerli, liked the signing but hates the third year so much he is not willing to endorse the signing.  I understand the argument but my stand was there was probably little chance the Royals sign him without that third year.  The debaters against the signing all point to that third year, saying you don’t give a 36-year old pitcher with pretty pedestrian numbers $9 million.  The contract averages $8.3 million a year.  That is not out of line with a pitcher of his caliber.  If Sanchez signs that 6-year, $90 million deal, will he be worth $15 million at the age of 34?  Will he provide more than 3 and a half times the value over the course of his contract than Guthrie will provide over the duration of his contract?  I sincerely doubt it very much. 

Another point is that premium free agents, especially top of the rotation pitchers are not going to sign in Kansas City, for any reasonable amount.  This is sad and it sucks but it is the absolutely the truth.  People can hide behind their keyboards and pontificate all they want about how terrible Dayton Moore is (and he has earned much of their scorn in all honesty) and how he should be spending money on the Greinkes and Sanchezes of the world.  That doesn’t change the fact they aren’t going to sign here.  I would love to be proved wrong but it will never happen at this point.  Until the Royals can improve their record and challenge for divisional titles, the Royals and Dayton Moore are going to have to slightly overpay for fringe free agents who only marginally improve the team.  That is a fact of life.  It is reality.  Quit begging the general manager to improve the team then bashing him when he does.  How about finding ways to be positive instead of filling your pages with negativity?  How maybe throwing some support behind your team?

Of course, I know the answers to those questions.  Whenever Moore has made a move with the major league roster, more often than not, it has ended in disaster.  We have to live with Moore’s bad judgments in signing Jeff Franceour and Bruce Chen to 2 year extensions for too much money.  We have to live with Moore trading anyone for Jonathon Sanchez.  We have to live with Moore signing terrible players like Yuniesky Betancourt.  Those types of moves do not translate into confidence when Moore signs a guy like Guthrie for 3 years.

I want to take a moment to examine Jeremy Guthrie.  If you throw out the very small sample size of Guthrie’s starts in Coors Field, his stats last year were right in line with his career numbers.  Many a pitcher has fallen apart in Coors Field.  Guthrie wasn’t the first and he won’t be the last.  I think we can safely toss out those three plus months in the Mile High City.  Guthrie has been consistent and durable, if not spectacular or flashy, throughout his career. The Royals desperately need a starter who can throw into the seventh on a regular basis.  One national talking head baseball guy has gone on the record that other GMs around the league think the Royals’ deal with Guthrie is a fair one because of his stamina and durability.  Rany Jazayerli does a great breakdown on Guthrie and comparable pitchers and their contracts at ranyontheroyals.com.

One stat guy told me last night he thought the Royals should tap into their deep reserves of minors to acquire pitching.  I agree and I hope this is still being pursued by the Royals’ front office.  Many people think KC should give up one of their young hitters but I think it is counterproductive to trade key offensive pieces on the major league level to acquire pitching.  What good is that pitcher if they can’t score runs for him?  The Royals do have a deep minor league system and I hope some of that talent can be moved to improve the big league roster.

Two years from now, I may be bemoaning the fact the Moore was an idiot and the Royals are paying a broken down, awful pitcher $9 million instead of having money freed up to sign a stud.  Feel free to remind me of this tirade then.  At this point, under the circumstances, Moore has added two arms better than what they had before.  I believe the market on free agent pitching is about to quickly explode and the Royals may end up with a couple of bargains.  Hopefully they will get the performances they are hoping for.  It seems the Murphy’s Law rules at Kaufman.  Eventually, there has to be a turning point for this organization.  Let’s hope it is 2013 and let’s try being less negative and more realistic.

Thanks for reading and have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving Day and weekend.

Miami Fire Sale

I have debated with myself about whether or not to write about the recent Toronto Blue Jays/Miami Marlins trade.  So much has been written about it already and it has been talked about on all of the sports channels.  I went ahead and penned this today because there are some things about the trade that really bother me and I just need to sort some thoughts out. 

First of all, I have to say BRAVO to the Blue Jays.  They were willing to open the checkbook and bring in five players who, in one way or another, will help them challenge in the AL East.  For me, it was a no-brainer on Toronto’s part.  If they are willing to accept the long term salary risks that accompany some of the players’ contracts, then I say good for them and good for their fans.  Their fans really can go into Spring Training with a positive attitude toward their chances for the 2013 season.

Secondly, one has to take a look at the trade itself and the players involved.  Toronto received Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle, Emilio Bonafacio, and John Buck.  Five players, all with their own warts, but all with talent to really fill out a roster and make significant contributions.  Miami received Yunel Escobar, Alvarez Henderson, Jeff Mathis, and four prospects, a couple of which are pretty decent MLB candidates.  Basically, Miami received an average shortstop, a number four starter that can’t strike anyone out, a career back up catcher, and four players who may or may not be average major leaguers someday.  I know it is a slippery slope to compare real major league baseball with fantasy baseball but if this trade were made in any keeper or dynasty leagues, it would have been challenged and overturned.  Miami just did not get enough back for the sheer volume of talent they shipped off.  If the deal would have been Reyes and either Johnson or Buerhle for Escobar, Henderson, and the best two prospects, this would have been closer to fair.  As it stands, though, the trade is completely imbalanced.

Thirdly, and this what bothers me the most, is the Marlins’ method of operation here.  They get a new stadium and in the winter before its grand opening, they go out and spend money like Steinbrenners.  Miami’s payroll doubled over last winter, going from approximately $57 million to $118 million.  Marlin fans rejoiced and I didn’t blame them.  Then the season started and things started to go askew.  Marlins’ manager Ozzie Guillen’s mouth got him in trouble (big surprise) right off the bat and Miami just couldn’t get it going.  The season slowly started to slip away.  In July, they shipped off the talented but discontented Hanley Ramirez, and then almost as soon as the season was over, they shipped closer Heath Bell off.  About a year go right now, baseball was toasting Miami for signing Bell, even though most knew they overpaid for him.  Miami signed Reyes and Buerhle to lucrative, end loaded, long term contracts and the future looked rosy.  Now, all of those players are gone, plus other key pieces.

Here we are, less than a year later, watching Miami ownership stab the fans in the hearts with the complete approval of Commissioner Bud Selig.  The Commissioner’s office took some time before giving the green light to this trade but I think it was just for show.  Selig was never, ever going to overturn this trade.  In truth, it would have set a bad precedent.  What I would like to see is a stern reprimand to Miami for their methodology, and a warning to other teams that this kind of behavior by ownerships won’t be tolerated.  That, or course, is not realistic and would never happen.  These teams belong to the ownership groups and not to the fans.  This has been shown to be the case over and over.  Owners can spend, or pocket, whatever money they want and in many cities, ownership couldn’t really care less about their fans.  In the last fifteen years, Miami has laid out some cash and won two championships (this fact still bugs me), then dismantled those teams instead of paying their increased salaries.  At least Miami fans have those two championships.

One more thing bothers me.  It has come out, and I have no way a verifying the truth of these reports, that the Marlins gave Reyes and Buerhle verbal agreements that they would not be traded.  The Marlins do not offer no-trade clauses so apparently they made gentlemen’s agreements with a couple of stars to get them to sign.  If this is true, the players’ union should warn all of their members that the word of the Marlins means nothing.

So, as we look to the 2013 season, the Marlins should be terrible and the Blue Jays should be the favorite in the AL East.  Not only do they have the players they traded for but they also have Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie, Brandon Morrow, among others.  They also just signed disgraced All Star MVP Melky Cabrera to a 2-year deal.  There rotation isn’t scary good, and there is as much chance it falters as it succeeds.  The bullpen could have some holes in it, but overall, the Blue Jays are solid and downright impressive offensively. 

The fans north of the border celebrate while the fans in South Florida cry into their cups.  I’m happy for Toronto fans but Miami fans, in their sparkling new stadium they are paying for, do have my sympathies.

Chiefs Should Clean House Right Now

I am not a big fan of firing coaches that have been in their current position for less than two years.  I think under normal circumstances, coaches need at least that much time to put their own stamp on their team.  Occasionally though, a situation arises where an organization should extricate itself from a bad decision as soon as it becomes obvious that a coach is a wrong fit.  The Kansas City Chiefs are at that point right now.

Romeo Crennel should never have been named head coach in the first place.  After Todd Haley was deservedly axed a little less than a year ago, Romeo was named the interim coach, then the Chiefs turned things around a little bit and won two of their last three games, including the season finale at Denver.  Everyone had the warm and fuzzies for Romeo.  In a very predictable move, Kansas City removed the interim title and bestowed a more permanent one.  There is a chance that no other name coach even wanted the job.  We found out the general perspective of things in KC when Peyton Manning refused to even visit this past off season. 

So yes, now is the time to right that wrong and show Mr. Crennel the door.  Thank you, sir.  You are a nice guy and a decent coordinator but you are no head coach.  This leads me to my point.  The Chiefs should just start cleaning house right now.

Firing Crennel should be the first move, followed immediately by the firing of General Manager Scot Pioli.  Todd Haley and Crennel were both Pioli’s hires and they have been disasters for this franchise.  Pioli has also done a poor job drafting, retaining, and acquiring the necessary players to provide this team the depth of talent to survive a physically grueling schedule.  Most of all, Pioli should be fired for his perennially blindness in the matter of Matt Cassel.

Matt Cassel is a tough guy.  He works hard.  He gives it his all.  Whatever cliché you want to insert for a scrappy, talentless player can be inserted here. The fact is, he is no better than a good back-up.  If you need a guy to step in for a few games when your starting QB gets knocked out (not Brady Quinn), Matt Cassel would be a great option.  However, it is obvious to everyone with even an iota of football knowledge that Cassel is not a championship caliber quarterback in the NFL.

Pioli has also proved that the vaunted “Patriot Way” works a lot better if you have Tom Brady as your quarterback and Bill Belichick as your coach.  Matt Cassel, Todd Haley, and Romeo Crennel are not even close.  It is easy to look good when Tom Brady is the face of your organization.  Forget the “Patriot Way.”  Let’s just move on.  Now!

If I were Clark Hunt, I would call Bill Cowher today.  Offer him the GM and the head coaching positions.  Ask him what his number is.  How big of a check do you need to take over this franchise, Mr. Cowher?  If he says not for all the gold in Fort Knox, so be it.  Go to the next guy.  If you have to bring Marty Schottenheimer in to run the asylum on an interim basis so you have time to find the right people not named Cowher to run your franchise – do it.  It is time to break out the wrecking ball and pulverize this thing. 

The Chiefs were picked by most of the talking heads to challenge for the AFC West in 2012.  Even now, those talking heads, local and national, are befuddled because this team should have several more wins.  There is talent on this team.  The depth just isn’t all that great.  The lack of wins falls on Crennel’s shoulders and the lack of depth falls on Pioli’s head.  He learned nothing from last season and went to battle with basically the same guys.  The fact that Ryan Lilja, a fine left guard, has been the center (a position he has never played) for the past several games and can’t get the ball to the QB on a regular basis, is a problem.  GET A CENTER IN HERE.  Find one somewhere.  Pioli cannot do his job.  Find someone who can. 

The time is now to make these changes.  There is no point in waiting.  Chief fans have suffered through this present, incompetent regime long enough.  Pioli has had his chances and failed he has miserably.  Today is the day to start anew. 

I would like to thank all of my loyal readers and followers.  Between my two blog sits, jawssportsandstuff.blogspot.com and jawsrecliner.blogspot.com, I have passed the 5000 viewer mark in less than 20 months.  While not every hit is a loyal reader, I know many of you out there read my stuff on a regular basis and I appreciate your support.  Thanks for reading.

2012-2013 Kansas Basketball Preview

I originally planned to make my predictions for the Big XII 2012-2013 basketball season but after doing some research, I decided it was just too tough and would serve no point.  Other than predicting Texas Tech and TCU as the worst two schools, nothing else is very predictable.  Even choosing Kansas to win their 9^th straight conference title, while easy to do considering their recent history, may not be as clear as it seems.  The conference will have eight very competitive teams this season and I can see almost all of them capable of winning the championship if things fell their way.

Instead, I decided to just focus on Kansas.  I will give reasons why it is quite possible for them to continue their remarkable streak and reasons why it is not a sure thing for them to repeat as conference regular season champs again.

This will be a very athletic Kansas team but it will be very young.  KU does have strong, experienced seniors in place in Elijah Johnson, Travis Releford, Jeff Withey, and Kevin Young but after those four, there is very little collegiate experience.  These four seniors will get a lot of playing time but most are new to their currant roles.  Only Releford will be filling a role he has enjoyed in the past.  Johnson and Withey are now the team leaders, the players opponents will focus on.  They do not have Tyshawn Taylor or Thomas Robinson to draw attention.  These two men will have to step forward and prove they are the next stars in KU’s long history.  Young will be relied on to bring energy and play more minutes than last year.  Only Releford seems to have the same role – that of the steady glue guy. 

Justin Wesley does have a bit of experience but I really doubt he will be able to make the rotation.  Nadir Tharpe played sparingly as a freshman, and while he looked lost much of the time, he appeared to take a step in the right direction toward the end of the season.  He has to earn Coach Bill Self’s trust to be the back-up point guard.

The Jayhawks are loaded with talented freshman.  Academic redshirts Ben McLemore and Jamari Traylor have seen the court in games but do enjoy spending a year in the system.  There is chance McLemore will start at the third guard position and Traylor will be counted on to offer depth along the front line.  Perry Ellis and Andrew White III will both see plenty of action and should offer some offensive punch to the line-up.  There is a good chance Ellis will start at the four.  I am not sure where Anrio Adams will fit in.  He is probably more of the prototypical Self guard than Tharpe, with the size and skills to play either guard position.  My guess is that he will either earn a rotation spot, which will be a big bonus, or he will have to bide his time, learn, improve, then contribute in future seasons. 

Finally, KU has two big guys vying for minutes in back-ups roles, Landon Lucas and Zach Peters.  I am not sure which one will earn the rotation minutes but I think Peters is more of a project therefore Lucas should get more playing time.  If these two guys both make big leaps in improvement, they may be they keys to just how good KU can be.  Self likes to play an aggressive, physical style of basketball and the more fouls he can give, the harder his troops can go at it.

If I were to project Self’s 9-man rotation, really two deeper than last season’s, I would guess the four seniors are locked down, plus Ellis, McLemore, White, and either Tharpe or Adams, and one out of the threesome of Traylor, Lucas, and Peters.  Whatever three are left out shows just how deep this version is.  Any of three players that be remaining should be able to push those ahead of him on the depth chart and could earn more playing time as the season goes along.  With this depth, it will be a more prototypical Self team and their should be plenty of competition for playing time. 

This team will have its share of weaknesses.  While Withey alters a lot of shots, he is often out of position when it comes to rebounding.  The guards and whatever other frontline player may be in the game are going to have to crash the boards hard.  I can easily see this team struggling to hold their own.  I am worried Ellis will get out manned against bigger, more physical forwards.  I am not sold on Johnson as the primary ball handler.  I have seen little in his career that leads me to think he can handle those duties for more than thirty minutes each game.  Releford has never been know for his ball handling skills and I don’t know how strong McLemore and White III are with the ball in their hands.  Self likes a multitude of guys capable of bringing the ball up and I just don’t see much here.  Tharpe and Adams could see their minutes increase if KU struggles getting the ball up the floor.

While KU does have its core of seniors, they are really going to count on most of the rest of the minutes coming from freshmen.  Traditionally, freshmen have underperformed under Self.  The Jayhawks really need three or four of these youngsters to excel early and often for KU to successfully defend its title streak.  I am also worried that KU’s excellent coaching staff will miss Danny Manning and his work with the big guys.  Will the KU big guys be able to continue to excel in footwork and moves around the basket since Manning took the Tulsa head coaching post?  I think his leaving will have an affect on this program.  If any staff can minimize the possible damage of Manning’s absence, it is this one.

Kansas certainly has to be considered the favorite to win the Big XII but it is not a sure thing.  The seniors will have to seamlessly step into the new, enhanced, leadership roles, and the young guys will need to mature quickly.  If KU can overcome possible deficiencies on the boards and with ball handling, there is no reason this squad can’t enjoy the same successes past teams have earned.  If this team is a deep as it looks on paper, it will be a very hard team to beat.

2012 Royal Wrap-Up

Another extremely disappointing baseball season is now behind us and I have some post season thoughts I would like to share.

I have always been a Kevin Seitzer fan.  I was happy when he was hired and for a certain kind of team, he is a terrific hitting coach.  If you have a young, untalented team with no power, Seitzer’s philosophy of middle-to-opposite field hitting is a sound hitting theory.  When you have a team of young, talented guys with very nice power upsides, it’s not that great.  Under Seitzer, Kansas City has been in the top four in the AL in batting average the last three years.  They have also been in the top half in doubles the last 3 years (top three in 2011 and 2012).  Unfortunately, the Royals have also been toward the bottom of the AL in runs scored (except for 2011 when they finished 6^th) and home runs.  Seitzer had success with guys like Escobar and Getz, and he deserves some credit for turning Alex Gordon in the right direction.  He had a lot less success with guys with bigger swings, like Hosmer, Moustakas, and Franceour.  I don’t count Billy Butler because I have a feeling Country Breakfast is pretty much his own hitting instructor.  I like Seitzer but I agree the Royals need to go a different direction with the personnel on this team.

On October 3^rd, Rany Jazayerli broke down the Royals long history of avoiding walks on offense on his excellent blog http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/.  I could not agree with him any more that this is a problem that needs to be fixed organizationally. 

Billy Butler should now be considered one of the top right handed hitters in the AL right now.  His .313/.373/.510 averages slash line is outstanding and he threw in 29 HR and 107 RBI just for kicks.  He is now truly a middle of the line-up hitter in a potentially potent line-up.  Butler is just 26 years old with a .300 career average, and already has over 3500 AB, over 100 HR, over 200 doubles, and almost 500 RBI.  His best years are quite possibly still ahead of him.

The Royals are filled with exciting, under-30, budding stars.  None are more exciting to watch than Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar.  Both were much better than expected on offense and both are as fun to watch on defense as any players at their positions in all of baseball.  Both are signed long term so I am thrilled at the prospect of watching them on a daily basis for many years to come.

Speaking of terrific defensive play, Alex Gordon has solidified himself as maybe the best defensive left fielder in all of baseball.  This link, http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/10/4/3452656/the-most-valuable-royal, provides some sources if anyone watching didn’t believe what their eyes were telling you.  Also, Mike Moustakas is a MUCH better defensive player than anyone thought he would be.  He has good hands and a rifle for an arm. 

If the Royals are going to contend soon, youngsters Hosmer and Moustakas MUST take big steps forward in 2013.  A lot of the immediate future of the Kansas City Royals is tied up with these two guys. 

Do you know what team holds the record for most strikeouts from a bullpen in a season?  Well, it is the 2012 Kansas City Royals with 535.  What an impressive effort by a very young group of relief pitchers. 

I will disbelieve any thought that the Royals are serious about winning if they do not cut Luke Hochevar.  He is awful and has been for many years now.  I cannot bear the thought of him in a Royals uniform next season.

It will be a very interesting off season this year as we will see just how hard the Royals pursue starting pitching.  Free agent aces will seldom, if ever, sign with small market teams.  Those small market teams just can’t afford to compete with the big boys in offering big, long contracts to pitchers.  Small market teams just cannot take the same chances on these contracts as the Yankees, or Red Sox, or Dodgers can.  It is a fact.  That doesn’t mean Kansas City can’t make serious runs at pitchers who would slot in as number two or three starters.  If they could somehow add two number 2 starters, I would be ecstatic. 

Finally, Royals fans took a bit of grief nationally for relentlessly riding Robinson Cano during the All-Star festivities.  I had absolutely zero problems with the fans for letting Cano know they were displeased with him for not picking Billy Butler for the Home Run Derby.  Cano twice stated he would, then didn’t.  He should be accountable for lying to fans.  In a great story, these same fans, on the last day of the season, robustly cheered rival Miguel Cabrera when he officially won the first Triple Crown in 45 years.  Royals fans cheered the Detroit Tiger long and loud enough that Miggy gave them a curtain call in appreciation, also recognizing the tribute the Royals players and staff also paid him by their applause as well.  Cabrera was sincerely appreciative of the ovation.  It was a touching moment all around.  Royals’ owner, discount king David Glass, should need little more proof how hungry local fans are for something to cheer about.  Kansas City was a great baseball town at one time, before David Glass squeezed out all hope.  These fans deserve better. 

An a related topic, I have a hard time listening and reading to all of the debate around the MVP.  Miguel Cabrera won the first Triple Crown since 1967.  There is a reason it hasn’t been done in 45 years.  Poo-poo the Triple Crown categories all you want.  It is still an amazing accomplishment for the offensive leader of a divisional winner and for there even to be an argument is just plain silly.  I love stats as much as anyone; I get in what ways Trout had a great, historic season, but SO DID MIGUEL CABRERA!!!  He has been one of the most consistent run producers in recent years and was a total team players, switching positions with little or no complaint (unlike a certain former Marlin), and playing better than expected.  Please put this argument to bed and just give Miggy the MVP trophy. 

Thanks for reading.

Just a Few Thoughts

Just a few thoughts on some sports related topics…

I am not taking a side, just making an observation.  The NFL needs to find some way to get the NFL officials signed and on the field.  I think football officials are poor in general but the replacement officials are a flat out embarrassment right now.  It looks like they just pulled some schmucks off the street and gave them striped shirts.  Some don’t even appear to know the rules or what they are looking for.  It is a travesty.  Even the announcers are having a tough time biting their tongues. 

I thought so before the draft and I think so now.  Robert Griffith III is going to be a superstar.  He is already one of my favorite players.  He is like a Michael Vick with a brain.  My goodness, he is fun to watch…

Salvador Perez may just be the Royals all around best player right now.  He now has nearly 400 career at bats.  He is hitting .318 with 14 home runs and 7 pick offs.  Pitchers love him and he looks like he knows what he is doing, both behind the plate and in the batter’s box.

The Kansas Jayhawks looked better yesterday against TCU than they did in their first two games despite the loss.  TCU was simply a bigger, faster, and better football team.  KU at least was competitive.

It appears as if the Kansas City Chiefs have joined the Royals as a snake bitten franchise.  Few of their moves seem to work out.  The Chiefs look awful right now and I blame Romeo Crennel.  KC was out-schemed, out-coached, out-prepared, and out-played today.   Crennel, like Todd Haley, was Scott Pioli’s choice for head coach.  The Chiefs seem reluctant to spend money to sign superstars or take chances by drafting quarterbacks high in the draft.  Kansas City fans deserve better. 

Speaking of rookie quarterbacks, Russel Wilson, Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and RGIII have made it look easy to be a rookie quarterback starting in the NFL thus far…

I am pulling for the Oakland A’s and Baltimore Orioles.  I love the underdogs.  These two teams are winning against teams much more willing to spend at will.  Quick – name ten players for each team!

Congratulations to the University of Louisiana-Monroe.  They marched into the home stadiums of two mighty SEC schools over the past two weeks.  They beat highly ranked and horribly overrated Arkansas in OT, then fell by a field goal to Auburn in OT.  The SEC is very good at the top, but their middle and lower tier teams are very mediocre. 

I was shocked to see all the empty seats in Doak Campbell Stadium Saturday.  Florida State is a very good football team and I couldn’t believe that place wasn’t packed, even for a cupcake non-conference game, oops, I mean conference game, against an awful Wake Forest team. 

I think KU should load up on bottom tier ACC teams for future non-con pigskin match-ups.  Rice and Northern Illinois would finish in the middle of the pack in that conference.  So would UL-Monroe.

After watching early season Chiefs and Jayhawk football games, I have but one question – Is it basketball season yet?