The Fun Is Over For Royals Fans

The first three weeks of the baseball season sure were fun for Kansas City fans, weren’t they?  Late game heroics, timely hitting, a young, fun, talented, bullpen, solid starting pitching – the Royals were playing great!  Man, it was fun.

Well, it’s all over now.  After a brutal 0-6 road trip in which the Royals gave up an unfathomable 13 homeruns, Kansas City has slipped under .500 for the season and have started their slide down the AL Central standings.  Their timely hitting has cooled off and they only averaged e a little over three and a half runs a game.  Although their defense has remained steady, if not spectacular at times, their pitching has tanked badly – as we knew it would eventually.

I recently read a nice article by Craig Brown on www.royalsauthority.com about Kyle Davies.  Using the Baseball Reference Play Index, Brown put in the parameters of pitchers who have started in 90% of their career pitching appearances and have pitched at least 700 innings.  Brown’s research revealed that since 1901, only five pitchers sport a career ERA over 5.00.  Kyle Davies is not only one of them, but he has the worst ERA, by almost half a run, of anyone.  Updated through last night’s game, Davies sports an ERA of 5.59.  Jason Bere is the next worse at 5.14.  Brown went on to discover that Davies also was only one of nine pitchers ever to sport a WHIP over 1.50, and again Davies is the worst (under the stated parameters) ever with an (updated) WHIP of 1.611, again the worst by a mile and the only one over 1.6.  Brown had some other categories and ratios which showed Davies ranking as one of the worst – ever.  His conclusion, rightly surmised, is that Kyle Davies is the worst starting pitcher – ever.  I personally might add that Luke Hochevar, with 300 less innings (significantly less) has a worse ERA than Davies, at 5.61.  Now, it should be noted, Hochevar’s WHIP is much better at 1.44 but that is still not very good.  Hochevar’s K:BB ratio is much better than Davies’ as well.  My point, though, is that Kansas City runs out not one, but two, of the worst starting pitchers imaginable.

Both Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen are guys who have had some success this season but they are both guys who rely on finesse and pitch placement rather than stuff.  They both understand how to pitch but both can be pummeled when they are not hitting their spots.  They are serviceable, not good, starting pitchers.  Let’s face it.  Does anyone think Sean O’Sullivan scares any opposing batters even with two good starts thus far?  This team, with these starters can still lose 100 games.  Their 12-7 start will be just another footnote in the memories of loyal Royals fans.

Kansas City also sports maybe the youngest bullpen in recent history.  I have no research to back this up but I cannot imagine many teams ever filling their pen with 4 pitchers with zero experience in the majors at the start of a season, now five with the addition of Louis Coleman.  Despite this craziness, I still think the bullpen will be a strength for this team, this season and in the future, as these guys gain experience.  Hopefully, a healthy Robinson Tejeda will return and replace a relatively ineffective Blake Wood.  Blake Wood would fit in nicely with Hochevar and Davies as a starter, don’t you think?  With a healthy Tejeda, the Royals bullpen would be deep and talented, something to build on in the future.

Is help on the way?  Are the young guns in the minors actually close to helping out the train wreck of a rotation?  Getting there, but not close enough to keep KC competitive this season.  Mike Montgomery has a nice 3.00 ERA, but his K:BB is only 18:12 in 21 innings.  I would like to see this improve.  Maybe the closest to being MLB ready is Daniel Duffy.  He has both an ERA and a WHIP at .90, and better yet, a 24:4 K:BB ration in 20 innings.  Vin Mazzaro (not considered a top prospect) was terrible his first outing but has improved since.  Mazzaro could definitely help as a possible upgrade over the worst major league starter ever, but he doesn’t thrill me.  John Lamb, maybe the best pitching prospect, is doing all right at AA with a 3.86 ERA but he has a high Whip at 1.53 and a poor ratio of 12:9.  The early numbers of Chris Dwyer and Edgar Osuna show they need quite a bit more seasoning before we can hope for any promotions.

I think we will see Montgomery, Duffy, and Mazzaro this summer.  When we see them will depend on if the Royals coaching staff can minimize the implosions of the present rotation.   I would like to see these guys by mid-June if their minors numbers continue as they are, and improve some even.  There is no reason for these guys not to get their feet a little wet in preparation for 2012. 

Meanwhile, the Royals will continue their slide toward the AL central basement.  Hopefully, their offense will remain competitive.   The experiments of Ka’aihue at first and Getz at second are very close to being over.  At least they should be.  Eric Hosmer (.408) and Clint Robinson (.347) are producing, meaning Kila’s leash should be getting very short indeed.  Scrappy two-bagger Johnny Giavotella is hitting is hitting .315 with no errors.  Mike Moustakas is only hitting .237 with 5 errors so he to get both of those numbers straightened out.  I am not worried as much about third base right now because Betemit has been producing there for the Royals.  Again, as for the pitchers, I don’t look to see any of these guys before mid-June, although it could be sooner for Hosmer if he continues to rake and Ka’aihue continues to falter.

We all knew this would be long season for the Royals and their fans.  We’ve had three good weeks to enjoy some exciting play and that will probably have to sustain us for the season.  The starting pitching is just too weak for there to be much success for this team.  Hang in there Royals fan and just remember those first three weeks in April.

One Last Cheer for Friday Night Lights

NBC is now airing the fifth and final season of the critically acclaimed, but largely ignored, television series, Friday Night Lights.  I am a huge TV fan and in my humble opinion, Friday Night Lights is one of the greatest programs in network television history.  This brilliant show is the most realistic ever produced.  Its writing is always top notch and the acting is truly unparalleled.

As one could expect of the worst network on television, NBC has never appreciated what they have in FNL.  Even from the start, NBC has never marketed the show properly.  Yes, it is based on the football movie by the same name but this show is about so much more than football.  Football is merely the backdrop as the show explores the trials and tribulations of the people whose lives are involved in small town, Texas, high school football.  While just about every episode has at least one scene that involves football, most episodes spend very little time on the field, especially after the first season.  Friday Night Lights is most definitely less about football and more about life in a small Texas town.  Naming the show after the movie has actually been a disservice to the program.  I’m sure NBC thought the name would draw in fans of the movie but then NBC scheduled the show on Friday nights, when a huge chunk of the possible audience would be actually attending high school football games.  Nice decision, NBC.  I think what actually happened is that too many people thought this program was just about the football.  People said, “Look, I saw the movie.  It was good, but what else is there to tell?”

NBC just never got it.  It was aired on the wrong night.  It was maybe not titled correctly, and it was most certainly not marketed very well.  I have never talked to anyone who watched FNL who didn’t love it.  In fact, I know girls who are not big sports fans who consider this show one of their favorites.  The problem is that a lot of people don’t even know the show exists, let alone what it is really about or when it’s on.  NBC actually would have aired only two seasons.  Luckily for all of us fans, Direct TV stepped in and helped with production in exchange for the right to air the program first, with NBC airing the show as an after thought in the late spring.  This arrangement went on for three years, with 2011 being the last season.  I feel fortunate to have gotten those extra three seasons.

This not the first time NBC executives have made bad decisions.  In 1995, NBC aired a show called JAG.  NBC cancelled this program in the spring without airing all of the episodes.  The next season, CBS picked it up, produced over 200 more episodes, and has generated a highly successful spin-off, NCIS, which has produced a highly rated spin-off of its own.  The franchise is still going strong fifteen years after NBC cancelled JAG.  In 1999, Paul Feig came up with a terrific coming of age program taking place in the early 80s.  Freaks and Geeks starred such future stars as Seth Rogen, James Franco, and Jason Segel, among others,  and featured a young Judd Apatow as a writer and director.  NBC only aired 12 episodes originally but aired 3 more in July of 2000 after an outcry by fans.  Three more episodes were aired in syndication.  In 2007, Time magazine named it one of its top 100 programs of all time and in 2008 Entertainment Weekly named Freaks and Geeks the 13^th best show in the last 25 years.  Finally, in the spring of 2009, NBC had a show titled Southland, which debuted with seven episodes.  This intense cop drama was renewed for the following season but had its fall 2009 premier pushed back at the last minute, then cancelled before airing anymore episodes.  Luckily, TNT picked up Southland and it is still on the air.  These examples show that NBC executives do not know what they are doing and they haven’t for a very long time.  It is no surprise they are the last place network.

Let me get back to the show itself.  Friday Night Lights focuses on the lives of people in a small town in Texas where high school football carries way too much importance.  The series revolves around coach Eric Taylor and his wife Tami, played brilliantly by Kyle Chandler and Connie Britton.  These two portray the most realistic marriage in TV history.  They act like real married people act.  They argue realistically about real issues and deal with family and career topics as real people do every day.  The show also delves into the lives of students and football players as they deal with real life issues and the desperation of escaping a bleak, small town existence.  Yes, football is an important theme but it is much more about life and topics we can all relate to.  In my opinion, there has never been a bad episode and in four plus seasons that have aired, only one story line  wasn’t very good and it was wrapped up pretty quickly.  After each episode, I cannot hardly wait for the next one.  It is that good.

Although it has won some awards, including a Peabody, a Humanitus, and a Television Critics Association nod, FNL has been criminally ignored by the Emmys.  Chandler and Britton were each given a nomination but so many great performances have been overlooked, or never seen, by those in control on the Emmys.  Just like Freaks and Geeks, Friday Night Lights has been a starting point for several promising careers.  Formerly unknown stars of the show are starting to appear in movies and other television series.  Actors such as Zach Gilford, Taylor Kitsch, Scott Porter, Minka Kelly, Adrianne Palicki, Michael B. Jordan, Matt Lauria, Jurnee Smollett, and Aldis Hodge are all making a name for themselves.  These actors were given brilliant scripts and produced performances that did justice to the words on the page.  I cannot tell you how terrific I think the acting is on this show.  It is so realistic.  These are real people in real situations and they react in real ways.

I can’t stress enough how much I will miss this show.  Seventy-six episodes are not enough.  If you have never seen this series, do yourself a favor.  Buy season one on DVD, or get it from Netflix.  You won’t regret it.  Just be prepared for the need to buy the rest of the seasons when you are done, just like I have.  Luckily, Friday Night Lights can live forever on DVD and in the future I can revisit the Taylors and Dillon, Texas.  I have already watched each season up to the present one more than once and I know I will watch them again.  I will be sad when I come to the end every time.  Shame on NBC for not feeling the same and being clueless as well.

Is The Season Over For The Boston Red Sox

About two weeks ago, I predicted the Boston Red Sox would win the AL East, the AL pennant, and the Worlds Series.  I know, I know, I’m too big to go out on a limb as thin as that!  Now, just eleven games into the season, I’m starting to wonder if I should revise my bold prediction.  A few days ago, I wrote it was too early for fantasy owners to panic, but what about the Red Sox?  Should they, and their fans, be worried their season is in jeopardy?  What has gone wrong with the best team money can buy?  Is it their hitting?  How about the pitching?  Well, yes to both.  Neither has been very good at all.

Only four everyday players for the Sox are hitting over .265 and five are hitting under .200, plus four have an OB% of less than .275.  That ain’t good.  Add in that on top of those pitiful numbers, Boston only has 4 stolen bases and 7 home runs.  Eighteen doubles and one triple in 11 games isn’t anything to get excited about either.  Nothing is popping for this offense except for the bats of Pedroia and Lowrie.  Compare the high priced offense of the Red Sox with the Cracker Jack prize line-up Kansas City throws out there on most nights and Boston should be embarrassed.  The Royals have five regulars hitting over .300 and only two with an OB% under .300.  In one more game, Kansas City has 15 stolen bases, 9 homers, 3 triples, and 26 two-baggers.  Ouch! 

The pitching hasn’t been any better.  Two well paid starters for the Sox have ERAs over 12.80.  That is not a typo.  12.80!  Beckett and Lester have been fine but everyone else has been horrific.  Eight pitchers who have appeared in a game this season have ERAs over 5.75.  The Sox’ mound men have also surrendered 21 home runs in 11 games.  Oh my goodness!   Talk about throwing fuel on a fire. 

If you are a Red Sox fan, you can know one thing for certain – it can only go up from here.  With 151 games to go, the Sox only have to make up five games on the Yankees to win the division.  Does anyone really think John Lackey won’t be able to lower his ERA from 15.58?  Is he really going to allow 2 hits every inning he pitches?  Of course he isn’t.  While Dice K’s best days are behind him, his ERA isn’t going to remain on the high side of 12, either.  These pitchers are only going to settle down.

Does anyone really believe the Kansas City Royals are going to out hit and out power the Sox over a whole season?  Don’t be ridiculous!  Carl Crawford is too talented to hit .152 for very long.  He is probably pressing in an effort to earn his crazy contract.  Kevin Youklis is one of my favorite players and his .182 average is just a slump.  The good news there is his OB% is a whopping .426!  Youk and Crawford have not hit a home run yet and stud Adrian Gonzalez has only crushed one out.  If these slumps occurred in mid July, no one would even notice. 

I think it is only a matter of days before the Red Sox get on a team hot streak.  Today is tax day and we are only half way through April.  This team has too much talent to stay this cold for very long.  Think about this team on fire.  They will score runs by the dozen, sooner rather than later. 

The Boston Red Sox are not done – not by a long shot.  Five games behind is nothing this early.  Even if Boston just plays even with New York the rest of April, five games is nothing.  Rabid Sox fans can rest assured their beloved team will pull it together.  I stand by my predictions of a divisional title, a pennant, and a ring for the Boston Red Sox.

Roster Management: Is It Too Early To Panic?

As someone who participates in numerous fantasy leagues each year, there is always that moment when I look at the standings in each league and I have to decide if it is too early to panic.  I am at that moment in one of my leagues right now.  I know, I know.   It has only been eleven days since the season started.  Whenever I reach the particular juncture in the season that I begin to question my decisions on draft, I have to fight back that welling up of panic in the pit of my stomach. 

In this particular league, I am batting a paltry .213, with a skimpy .635 OPS.  Yuck!  I’m in last place in average, OPS, and runs.  Every evening I check my team, hoping for some hits.  Thus far, I have been sadly disappointed.  What was I thinking during our auction, paying good draft dollars for these stiffs?  Did I lose this league that day, before a pitch was thrown?  My gosh, what have I done?

Deep breathes, deep breathes.  Breathe in, breathe out.  Okay.  I got to get a hold of myself.  We are only 11 days in, right?  It’s too early to panic, right?  I’m jumping the gun, right?  The ship is going to right itself, right?  Everything is going to be all right, right?

As I push the hysteria down, as I try to regain my composure, I do have to acknowledge the fact that these questions, these reactions, are real and valid.  I also need to calmly remind myself the second week of the season isn’t even over yet.  We’re not even to tax day yet.  No need to go crazy just yet.

Yes, my team has stumbled horribly out of the gate offensively, but where am I in the standings?  In this particular league, I am presently in second place.  Why am I so panicky?  Again, am I just over re-acting?  This is crazy.  My team is fine; what am I worrying about?

In all seriousness, this is an issue all owners face at one time or another in their fantasy baseball career.  My problem with this team is that I had a nagging feeling going into the season it wasn’t my best effort drafting.  I suspected before the first game of the season this team might not be my strongest.  In all truthfulness, my pitching, at least thus far, has performed better than I anticipated. 

My advice to myself, and to all fantasy baseball owners, is to battle this early season panic.  Eleven days is not far enough into the season to give just evaluations of performances, either good or bad.   My offense is not going to be this bad all season.  A .213 average?  Really?  Wouldn’t that be some kind of all time record low for an average?  My pitching isn’t going to be this solid all year either.  I have a 2.818 ERA and a 1.051 WHIP.  In a league as deep as mine, those are not maintainable numbers.  I have to give things some more time to shake out.

If this is too early, when is it no longer too early?  Many owners will wait through April to make many changes to their rosters.  This isn’t a bad strategy.  Look, you drafted players for a reason.  Shouldn’t you give them a full month to get on track?  Certainly, the players deserve at least a month.  It is very hard, especially with the start my team has had at the plate thus far, for me to be patient that long.  I must wrestle with my natural urge to tinker.  I think owners should give their teams six weeks before pondering wholesale makeovers.  Six weeks gives players who start slow a chance to turn it around and players who played above their ability in April to revert to normal.  It also gives you an opportunity to look at your league as a whole.  Your team won’t be the only one with players over or under achieving. 

Being patient, though, isn’t the same as being blind or stupid.  If you took a chance on a player late for a buck or two, or in a very late round, and that player has not taken the next step or has not performed as well you hoped he might, you should not wait six weeks to boot him.  Or even four weeks for that matter.  If you have a chance to improve your team through a trade or a free agent acquisition, then don’t hesitate to do so.  I have a tendency to look to trade my way out of a slump too early rather than make small tweaks via free agency.  I tend to over-manage early, often to my detriment.  I fight these urges every season and I am getting better over time.  That doesn’t mean I won’t keep an open mind if an opportunity arises for me to improve my roster.

The quality of the player should also help determine how patient you should be.  If it is a good player, you should panic much later than with a crappy player.  This seems like obvious advice, but I am always reading columns or posts from experts who tell us things like sell high and buy low.  How many owners dumped Mark Teixeira last season in the last two weeks in May when he failed to come out of his early slump for the longest time?  If it is player like Big Tex, you wait him out.  Chances are he will come out of it eventually, just like Teixeira did last season.  If it a player like Kila Ka’aihue, who has no history of success, you shouldn’t hang on as long.  Feel free to take advantage of those owners who will buy high and trade low.  Evidently, they are out there.

So, after all this, my advice to myself, as well as all fantasy owners, is to be patient for at least six weeks.  Make minor adjustments to your rosters here and there if you need to.  Listen to offers from owners who are panicking too early.  Cut any dead wood you may have picked up on draft day if it improves your team.  Be patient.  Don’t panic.  Eleven days is too early.  Deep breathes.

Can Hollywood Save Hollywood

While it is true most of my posts will be sports related, and predominantly baseball related, I do have other interests.  One of these interests is movies.  I love movies.  I used to go to two or three movies a week.  Of course, life gets in the way more now and it would be really hard to go to the multiplex that much at this point in my life even if I wanted to.

That’s the issue.  Hollywood is doing its best to ruin the movies.  Over the past two or three years, the quality of films seems to have deteriorated badly.  I think lack of originality is the biggest culprit.  Poor and lazy writing doesn’t help either.  What does it say about the industry when animated films seem to do better at the box office than live action?  Seven of the top 14 earners in 2010 were animated.  What is Hollywood going to do when the Harry Potter and Twilight sagas are done?  What are the studio executives going to do when they run out of mediocre super heroes to dust off? 

Is Hollywood out of ideas?  Is Hollywood running out of imagination?  Sequels and remakes seem to dominate the big screens.  Is anyone but me starting to tire of the half-hearted efforts put forth in the assembly line of formulatic romantic comedies churned out by the studios?  Even two beautiful people like Jennifer Anniston and Girard Butler can’t save us from such crap as The Bounty Hunter.   

It really ticks me off when good material is butchered by the powers that be.  A perfect example of this is Percy Jackson and the Lightning Thief.  My family is a big fan of this book and the rest of the series.  I was excited when I heard Chris Columbus directed the film.  Columbus was at the helm of the best two translations of the Harry Potter series.  Columbus did the first two films and remained true to the books and was a patient story teller.  Not so with the Percy Jackson film.  He slaughtered a terrific book, leaving out key characters, changed big parts of the book, and made the ending unrecognizable.  He changed and left out things key to the series in general.  He is directing the second film of this series as well, and I don’t know why he felt the need to rewrite this terrific series by Rick Riordan.  Hollywood has done this for years (Along Came a Spider – 2001).  If you have a book good enough to make into a movie, why change it, almost always for the worse?

Hollywood hasn’t completely put it on cruise control.  Inception was an original in idea and concept.  A King’s Speech was a great story brilliantly spun and acted.  The 2010 version of True Grit was better than the John Wayne vehicle.  Recently I saw Red Riding Hood.  Obviously, it was not an original idea, but it was freshly presented.  It wasn’t perfect but it was entertaining.  Sometimes Hollywood does get it right but just not often enough.   

Please don’t think I am a stodgy movie watcher.  I have eclectic tastes in movies – I like just about anything other than horror films and Jack-ass-type movies.  A movie doesn’t have to be great.  It does have to be well-made, well-acted, and entertaining.  A lot of films seemed rushed, without the proper plot line and in-depth character development.   If a film is made from the same old mold, it has to be presented differently, freshly.  I watch some of these previews, there is nothing about them that makes me want to watch them.  I’ve seen them before, in some reincarnation.  Very few previews make me excited to fork over the money for a ticket.

Another issue plaguing Hollywood is a lack of superstars.  Are there any must see actors or actresses left?  How many stars are bigger than the movie they are in?   Where have the superstars gone?  Cruise got weird, Hanks has started to fade away, Ford and Pacino got old, and Gibson, well, Gibson just went crazy.  It has been a long time since John Wayne.  Don’t get me wrong.  I think there are some terrific actors out there.  Meryl Streep can do anything.  Jeff Bridges gets better with age.  Sean Penn is outstanding.  Matt Damon is really establishing himself.  There are others that are very good but how many of these actors draw you to the theater regardless of the film?  Probably none.

I have one more item to complain about.  I loathe 3-D.  It is so, so unnecessary.  Avatar was a terrific movie but James Cameron has almost ruined the movie going experience for me.  I cannot stand movies in 3-D.  I wear glasses and the 3-D glasses are uncomfortable and heavy on my face.  It is not worth it because it adds very little to most movies.   It was laughable when The Last Airbender and The Clash of the Titans were released in 3-D.  The former was a horrible effort anyway and the 3-D was poorly executed in both.  I don’t think it adds anything to the movie watching experience and it is most definitely not worth the extra $3 to $4 theaters charge for the crappy privilege.  The quicker the movie makers realize this, the better we will all be.  Movies are expensive enough without the extra charge to be uncomfortable for two hours.  I have told the manager at the local theater I will not be going to anymore 3-D movies.  Ever.