2011 MLB Predictions

Preseason predictions are worthless and meaningless, so why does everyone do them?  Because they’re fun, that’s why!  Plus, on the rare occasion we are actually right, we can proclaim a degree of (usually self-proclaimed) expertise by trumpeting our prognostic feats to the world.  Of course, we are deadly silent on the majority of the picks we miss on and we hope no one remembers. That’s the good part, since few people, if any, are even paying attention to us so no one even notices or cares when we are wrong.  It’s a win-win exercise.  So here we go with my all-seeing, crystal ball predictions for the 2011 season.

AL East

1)      Boston Red Sox.  Awesome offense, good defense, and a solid, deep staff make the Sox the favorite.  A recent history of injuries at key positions is worrisome.

2)      New York Yankees.  The Bombers are loaded offensively and boast a great back end of the bullpen.  They survive a shallow rotation because Ivan Nova is better than expected.

3)      Baltimore Orioles.  Improved offense will play for the big inning and the young staff will improve as the season progresses.

4)      Tampa Bay Rays.  A bullpen loaded with former Royals is not a good thing.  Longoria can’t carry the depleted offense by himself.  Young starters take big steps forward.

5)      Toronto Blue Jays.  The Jays are a much improved team but they play in the wrong division.  Bautista will not match last year’s number, but has his second best season.

AL Central

1)      Chicago White Sox.  There are few holes on this team.  A deep rotation and good talent at nearly every offensive position will make medium to long losing streaks obsolete.  Can Thornton be the closer?

2)      Minnesota Twins.  Questions about the health of Morneau and Mauer keep the Twins out of first.  The rotation is average at best.  Fundamentals will keep them close.

3)      Detroit Tigers.  Age and health at some key positions concern me.  Verlander and Cabrera are certified studs and could carry the Tigers into contention.

4)      Kansas City Royals.  The offense will be better than expected but rotation could be historically bad.  The back of the bullpen is as good as any.

5)      Cleveland Indians.  The underrated Choo is the sole star on this team.  It won’t be enough.  There is little to like in the rotation.

AL West

1)      Oakland A’s.  Surprised?  I like this pitching staff, from top to bottom, as well as any in the AL.  Gio Gonzalez is on the brink of studdom.  A solid, if unspectacular, offense will score enough.

2)      Texas Rangers.  They battle until the end but are let down by a weak rotation.  Offense will continue to bang but will Hamilton get enough at bats to defend his MVP?

3)      Los Angeles Angels.  The bunch from Anaheim keeps this the tightest race in baseball but things don’t go the Angels’ way for most of the season.  Injuries and underachievement will be the story in LA.

4)      Seattle Mariners.  King Felix and Ichiro cannot prevent the Mariners from being the worst team in baseball.

Postseason

The Yankees win the wild card but Boston wins the AL title.

Awards

Cy Young – C.C. Sabathia

MVP – Adrian Gonzalez

ROY – Zach Britton

NL East

1)      Atlanta Braves.  The Braves have a terrific mix of top tier youth and wily, solid veterans.  The veterans keep the kids focused and they outlast the Phillies.

2)      Philadelphia Phillies.  Age and injuries are a factor throughout the season and this awesome rotation cannot overcome these issues to win the division.  With these starters, the Phillies are never out of it.

3)      Florida Marlins.  The Marlins feature a solid rotation and nice youth in the field.  They are a ways from the top two in this division and their pitching separates them from the bottom two.

4)      Washington Nationals.  This is an up and coming team but their rotation will hold them back.  It just will not hold up for the whole season.

5)      New York Mets.  The Mets have become the graveyard for careers.  It has been a while since much has gone right for this organization and nothing changes in 2011.

NL Central

1)      Milwaukee Brewers.  It is all on the line for the Brew Crew.  They have a one year window for success.  They respond by winning the division.  Very good pitching, combined with a nicely balanced offense, is a great combo.  I am worried about the bullpen, though.

2)      Cincinnati Reds.  There is nothing wrong with the Reds except it will be the Brewers’ year.  If the Brew Crew bullpen falters, look for a very solid Cincinnati team to fill the breach.  They are built to be good for a few years.

3)      Chicago Cubs.  Pick ‘em between Cubs and Cards.  I like the Cubs’ pitching slightly better.  Will their offense be good enough?

4)      St. Louis Cardinals.  I do not like the Cards’ pitching.  Wainright is a huge loss.  Will the Pujols situation be distracting?  Do they trade him if they fall out of it in July?  This will be a big story if St. Louis is out of contention.

5)      Pittsburg Pirates.  The perpetual youth movement shows glimpse of success.  I love to watch McCutcheon play.  The pitching is shallow and won’t be good but there will be improvement.

6)      Houston Astros.  I think only Seattle will be worse.  This organization is in a free fall.  The pitching falters early and often and the offense needs an overhaul.

NL West

1)      Colorado Rockies.  I look for Jhoulys Chacin to have a break out season.  I love the Rockies’ outfield and they have a solid bullpen.  Tulowitzki is a star.

2)      San Francisco Giants.  Patchwork offense was a fluke in 2010.  Posey and Belt are the real deal and Sandoval returns to 2009 form.  The Giants are an easy pick to repeat but I like Colorado more.

3)      Los Angeles Dodgers.  Much improved over a year ago, the Dodgers will stay in the race all year.  This race will match the AL West as a three way battle for the division.  A lot to like here but they will fall short.

4)      San Diego Padres.  A young, exciting rotation gives Padres’ fans something to cheer for but they are offensively stagnant.  Bell will be gone in July.

5)      Arizona Diamond Backs.  I don’t give the D-Backs much of a chance.  They will challenge several other teams for the worst in baseball.  Just not much to be thrilled about.

Postseason

Philadelphia will outlast the Reds, Giants, and Dodgers for the wild card.  Their pitching is good enough to win out in the playoffs.

Awards

Cy Young – Roy Halladay

MVP – Troy Tulowitkzi

ROY – Brandon Belt

World Series

The Red Sox out duel the Phillies in a classic seven game series.

While I will not hesitate to remind everyone of my genius on all predictions I might get correct, I expect all of you to ignore (or forget) my many probable misses.  After all, it is just for fun.  Except when I am right, of
course!

(Note:  4/1/11 - I changed the NL ROY to Brandon Belt, not Beachy.  I was watching Beachy pitch when I wrote the piece and had his name in my head)

Royals Rundown

In the spring, every fan has a little time to hope and dream that this is the year the ole hometown team surprises everyone and makes a run for the division.  Of course, if you are a fan of the Kansas City Royals, those dreams are dashed quickly, as ocean waves on a rocky cliff, usually by May 1, if not sooner.  Some years, it's by the end of the first weekend.  This will probably be one of those seasons.

What is the best case scenario for the Royals?  If everything went perfectly, what is the best us loyal, heart broken fans can expect of the 2011 baseball season?  If the stars all align and hell freezes over, just what could happen?

Alex Gordon, Jeff Francoeur, and Melky Cabrera, all former prospects, all 26 or 27 years old with experience, reach their potential and become a very good outfield.  Alcides Escobar returns to the form that made him a top prospect for the Brewers just one year ago, with both the glove and the bat.  Chris Getz figures out how to get on base with some regularity and steals over forty bases.  Billy Butler learns to elevate the ball just a little and hits around 20 homers and hits into 10 less double plays.  Kila Ka’aihue matches his best years in the minors by hitting 25 round trippers with a .280 average and lots of walks.  Mike Aviles maintains his .300 average and plays a good third base.  The catchers, well, the catchers do not prove to be too much of a drain.

Luke Hochevar finally reaches the potential that made him a number one draft pick and becomes the staff ace in fact.  Jeff Francis returns to his pre-injury form and provides veteran leadership to the rotation.  Divine intervention helps Kyle Davies’ head catch up to his arm and he finally realizes he can get people out by throwing strikes down in the zone.  Vin Mazzaro continues to improve looks like a legitimate big league starter.  Sean O’Sullivan pitches very well in long relief and replaces Bruce Chen in the rotation by mid May and makes strides and keeps his ERA under 4.25.

Joakim Soria maintains his high level of consistency and effectiveness.  Robinson Tejeda grows into his role as primary set up man and cuts down his walks to give the Royals a tough one-two punch at the back of the bullpen.  The Royals start to reap the rewards of their deep minor league via young arms performing well in the bullpen. 

The Indians are as bad as they look on paper.  Detroit’s age and poor health catch up with them and they fall by the wayside by June.  Justin Morneau just can’t return to his former high level of excellence and Joe Mauer’s knees continue to drain is power and playing time.  The Royals fight and scrap their way into contention by the end of August but Chicago’s better talent and superior rotation help them pull away and Kansas City finishes in second in the Central.

This would all be possible in a world of fantasy.  We live, of course, in reality.  One of the three outfielders might reach their promised potential; the other two are traded by the end of July.  Alcides Escobar plays great defense but can’t raise his average over .260.  Chris Getz fails miserably and is replaced by June 1^st by Mike Aviles, who moves to second to make room for top prospect Mike Moustakas.  Aviles hits well but is a hinderence defensively.  Moustakas shows power but struggles for much of the season.  Billy Butler is what he is – a .300 doubles hitter who hits way too may groundballs and not enough home runs.  The scouting reports prove correct and Ka’aihue has too many holes in his big swing.  He can bang some home runs but struggles with consistency and his minor league average doesn’t translate.  The catchers, well, the catchers offer very little that is positive to the team.

Hochevar proves to be nothing more than a number four starter, and therefore a bust.  Jeff Francis emerges as the leader of a very bad rotation.  Kyle Davies just doesn’t get it and is gone before August.  Mazzaro and O’Sullivan show little in the way of improvement and Bruce Chen remains in the rotation for the whole season.

The bullpen is the lone bright spot on this team.  Soria and Robinson finish out the rare games when they inherit a lead and the young arms show promise and improve as the season goes along.

The Royals finish fourth in the division and a few of the prized prospects are promoted in August or September and they gain valuable experience going into the 2012 season.

I am a huge Royals fan (please no comments about my actual size), but I am beyond frustrated at their constant losing.  I am ready for some success.  Hopefully that success isn’t that far away. 

Why Kansas Didn't Win The National Championship

If you read my previous post on the Jayhawks, then you know exactly why they couldn't win a national championship.  Point by point, Kansas failed in every facet of their game.  Inconsistent guard play, poor free throw shooting, and poor defense were the culprits.  The signs were abundant all season and unfortunately, it is how things played out on the court when it meant the most.  Congratulation to VCU, who did everything they needed to do to win.

Draft Day Strategies

Many of you will be drafting over the next two weekends.  Today’s blog is just a set of reminders and hints to help you prepare for your drafts.

I think one of the most underrated facets of fantasy baseball is draft day strategies.  While most people will go into their draft with a basic idea of what they want to do, I don’t think that is enough.  I believe it is very important to have a clear strategy mapped out for your draft. 

Even before you form your strategies, it is very important to study your league.  I know this sound fundamental, and it is, but it should be mentioned anyway.  Know your leagues rules.  You should read through them every season before your draft, especially if you are in multiple leagues with different sets of rules.  Make sure these rules are clear in your mind.  Know you categories.  This is very important because every format, every set of different categories, add or subtract certain values.  Standard 4x4 leagues are very much ERA and WHIP dominated.  Strikeouts don’t even matter in these leagues, as hard as that is to understand.  Don’t worry about them.  If you are in a 4x4 league, you should carry as many relievers as you possibly can and still meet your league minimum for innings pitched.  Relievers will come very cheap in the auction and free up more money for home run hitters with good averages.  If you are in a 5x5 standard league, those high average home run hitters are even more valuable.  By taking a hard look at the categories, you can determine what type of players will impact the biggest number of those categories.

Know your fellow owners.  This sounds silly but most owners will use the same strategies year in and year out.  You don’t have to keep a diary (although I think it is a good idea) but you should takes notes directly after each draft on how each owner drafted, then compare notes year to year and see if there is a pattern.  Some owners like to stock up on saves and stolen bases during the draft.  Some owners will load up on offense early and take leftovers for pitching.   Information is a weapon and you should use whatever weapons are available.  Some sites will save draft histories from previous years for you to check out before your draft.

There are as many strategies as there are formats.  In keeper leagues, know what categories you are already strong in and draft to strengthen your weaknesses.  It is all right to target players but have a second or third or fourth option for each player you target in case you don’t get the players you want.  Don’t lock in on a player so hard you overpay several dollars for him.   And don’t panic if you don’t get your first choices.  I’ve seen so many owners not get the players they wanted and then just sit there and let good player after good player go off the board without making a move and suddenly they have a fortune of draft dollars on the table and dregs left on the board.  This is easy to do.   Have a strategy but don’t ruin yourself trying to stick to it.  Have a strategy and do your best to stick to it but be prepared to alter it if necessary.

In non-keeper leagues, work on having a well rounded roster.  Don’t tank a category in the draft.  It is very hard to win any league coming in last in a category.  If you finish third in every category, chances are you will win you league.  Balance your roster during the draft.

Some hints for a successful draft – don’t over spend for saves.  According to Baseball Forecaster, over the last ten years, 40% of all pitchers drafted as closers are replaced by their MLB teams before the season ends. There are so few dependable, dominant closers out there.  I try to get at least one named closer from a small market team (because they are cheaper) and fill in with a couple of the possible closers from other teams.  Since there is always an owner or two that stock up on saves, chances are you can make a trade for saves during the season.  Avoid injury prone starting pitchers, especially if they are under 27 or 28 years old.  Look for pitchers in their late 20s or early 30s with a good history of health.  Don’t speculate with a lot of young pitchers.  Shoot for solid veteran starters with low walk rates and ground ball pitchers. 

Don’t spend more than $30 for more than one player.  It is a bad idea to tie up too much of your draft budget on too few players.  Chances are, in most formats, you will have to pay over $30 to get one stud and that’s okay.  Stay away from studs who have struggled with injuries.  I find it hard to bid on Josh Hamilton because of his history of nagging injuries.  He is terrific when healthy but it could be devastating to your team when he’s hurt. 

Buy catchers cheap.  Few catchers are worth more than a few dollars.  Buy these players cheap and spend a few extra bucks on a player who doesn’t take every fifth or sixth game off. 

If a good player is going cheap, bid on him, even if he isn’t one of your targeted players.  Good players are good players.  Any good player you get on the cheap is a plus for your team. Be flexible.

When preparing for your drafts, don’t focus on the raw stats, especially arbitrary stats like Wins.  Study trends.  Look for players in their mid to late 20s or early 30s that are trending up in their peripherals.  Look for veteran players who are solid and steady, year in and year out.  Do your homework.  Buying a magazine the night before your draft and leafing through it just doesn’t cut the mustard in this day and age.  Assume your fellow owners are doing more.  Anyone can draft Carl Crawford but how many owners know Seth Smith has the increased playing time and good peripherals to have a break out season? 

There is a popular saying that states you can’t necessarily win your league on draft day but you can definitely lose your league on draft day.  I truly believe this statement to be true.  Most of the items in this article today are not new or mind blowing.  Sometimes, though, it is good to be reminded that the basics still need to be attended to.   Do your homework, know your league, and form a workable and realistic strategy and you will have a successful draft and a successful season.  Good luck in your drafts.

NCAA Tournament's New Viewing Format

There is an old saying that goes “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”  Old sayings stick around because they are true.  Well, I have to say, in this case, the old saying is wrong.  I was wary about the new broadcasting plan for the NCAA tournament.  The first four days of the tournament are the best four days of the sports year, in my opinion.  Nothing is better than to spend four glorious days camped out on a recliner watching game after game after game.  I never come closer to divorce than I do the first weekend of the NCAA tournament.

Now, my wariness is gone.  The first weekend is even better and that is awesome.  Now, I get to pick what game I want to watch and not what CBS dictates to me.  No more annoying live look-ins.  If I want to switch over and watch a close ending, I can.  If I don’t want to, I don’t have to.  Best of all, I get to skip most of the mind numbing commercials (I will never, ever use Old Spice again in protest to all those awful commercials) by just switching channels to another game during the breaks. 

And what a weekend of games!  Nail biters and last second shots.  Celebrations and heart break.  Who could ask for more?  Right off the bat on Thursday afternoon, three great finishes right in a row.  What sports fan wasn’t in heaven?

Despite the improved viewing experience, a few things need to be tweaked.  Another game needs to be added on Saturday and Sunday afternoons.  Maybe take the latest game on those days and stick it in the schedule to start at approximately half time of the first game.  After the frenetic pace of the first two days, it was almost a lull on Saturday and Sunday afternoons, especially if you did not have a personal stake in those games.  And can we quit calling the play-in games first round games?  It kept throwing me off when the announcers called the weekend games round three match-ups.  No, they’re not.  They are second rounds games.  These issues are minors, though.  The experience was enhanced by the extra channels, although I understand that TrueTV has not in HD in some markets.  That would have been annoying.

Another thing that should be addressed is the selection process in general.  Either go back down to 65 or go up to 72 (no more than that – the field is watered down as it is).  Let’s have a true first round if you are going to have one.  As far the selection process goes, there are arguments about teams left out every single year.  That is part of the excitement.  It gives everyone something to talk (and write) about.  The seeding is more of an issue than who was left out.  They should focus more on coming up with a better way to evaluate teams - one that does not involve who a team’s opponents play. 

I would also like to comment on the courtside announcers and the studio crews.  Can we please do away with the NBA guys?  It was painfully obvious some did not know the collegiate players or rules.  I find Charles Barkley as entertaining as hell but it was so obvious he was uncomfortable discussing the college game.  His points were often unclear and he looked unsure of himself.  On the other hand, Kevin Harlan is magnificent!  This dude can cover anything.  His voice is so smooth and he obviously works hard on his craft.  He never mispronounces names or calls players by the wrong names – a true professional.  Another guy I absolutely love is Gus Johnson.  He could commentate on paint drying and make it sound exciting.  His enthusiasm for the game itself is fun and refreshing.  I would watch any game this dude was working.

The first weekend is over and all I can do is to try to wait patiently for Thursday to arrive.  Between the NCAA Tournament and the anticipation of baseball season Opening Day, there leaves little doubt that March is the best sports month on the calendar.  Alas, my skills as a prognosticator leave much room for improvement.  Pittsburg bows out in the second round.

Breaking Down the American League Central

While the American League Central does not have the concentrated talent of the AL East, there are a number of terrific players plying their trade in this division.  Some of the best pitchers and batters in baseball do battle here but there is definitely a case of the haves and have nots among these five teams.  Trying to analyze just how these teams will line up is not an easy task but here goes.

5) Cleveland Indians.  The Indians probably have more proven talent, position by position, than their division basement challengers, the Kansas City Royals, but I think the Royals have more potential for in-season improvement.  I believe so much of the Indians possible success depends on the return to health of Grady Sizemore.  When Sizemore was at the top of his game, he was a star.  Unfortunately, he has become more of a delicate egg shell than a viable player over the last couple of years.  If he does not completely recover, who knows what kind of player will emerge.

One thing I would not count on if I were an Indian fan is that Travis Hafner will return to his former dominating self.  Nothing I have seen leads me to believe he is doing nothing but playing out his contract.  On the other hand, I love Shin-Soo Choo.  He is consistent and trending up, and is in the prime of his career.  He is an underrated star but has little help around him.  Young catching prospect Carlos Santana could develop into a second Indians star.  Santana is coming back from a nasty knee injury but has done nothing but hit in the minors.  With six homers in 150 at bats last year before the collision that knocked him out, he showed promise that he could hit major league pitching.  Look for Santana to get some time at first base as Cleveland will look for ways to keep his bat in the line up every day. 

The rest of Cleveland’s line-up is filled with question marks.  Matt LaPorta has not yet fulfilled his promise and if he fails again, Santana may take over first base permanently.  Michael Brantley is still young but has not shown that he handle major league pitching on a regular basis.  I was disappointed in his stolen base output, stealing only ten bases last season in 297 at bats.  In the infield, Asdrubal Cabrera has been up and down and Orlando Cabrera is on the downside of his career.  Third base is a huge questions mark, with Jayson Nix and Jason Donald battling for playing time.  Ouch!

The pitching staff is anchored by Fausto Carmona.  He had a nice year last year but hardly a number one starter.  Justin Masterson and Mitch Talbot will join Carmona and bring very little excitement.  I like the potential of Carlos Carrasco & Jeanmar Gomez and but they lack experience.  I like Chris Perez as the closer and the Indians have a number of solid options in middle relief.  If this bunch is not over worked, they could be very effective.

All in all, I am not a fan of this team.  As a fantasy owner, there are very Indians I would want on my roster.  Outside of two or three players, I see little upside.  If Sizemore returns, though, at full strength, the Indians will probably finish ahead of the Royals.

4) Kansas City Royals.  Call me a homer but I can see Kansas City being slightly better than most people think.  Don’t get me wrong – they won’t be good – but maybe not as horrible as most people predict.  Most think they will lose at least 100 games but I think it will in the 90-99 range.  I know.  That’s so much better.  I do like their growth potential better than the Indians though.

Billy Butler is Kansas City’s best offensive player and he can still improve, especially his power.  He hits too many ground balls and is slow afoot, therefore he hits into a lot of double plays.  If he could get just a little more loft in his swing, he could hit 20-25 home runs.  As of now, he is a doubles machine with a good average.  The proven offensive talent drops off after Butler.  It looks like Mike Aviles is going to start at third.  Aviles has proven he can hit major league pitching but I have been slow to believe.  I like Aviles so I hope his hitting continues.  I also look for Aviles to steal more bases this year.

Kansas City has a number of players looking for a chance to meet their potential.  First on this list is Alex Gordon.  This season will probably be his last chance to prove he is not a bust.  Can he step up and realize his once great promise or does he become just an average outfielder?  If his off season batting approach changes pay off, maybe he can be the player the Royals need him to be.  Kila Ka’aihui has been a big OPS monster in the minors but has few chances with the big league team.  His time is now.  With super prospect, Eric Hosmer, closing quickly, Ka’aihue could prove his worth by displaying some good power.  I look for 20-25 homers this year form the big guy.  Newly acquired Alcides Escobar is just one year away from being a top prospect.  If he returns to the level of his minor league hitting, he could quickly become a top five American League shortstop.  I am excited to watch him everyday.  Finally, Chris Getz needs to show he is more than a utility player.  He has great speed but you can’t steal first.  My guess is that Getz will have a short leash.  If he continues to flounder, Aviles could move back to second and Wilson Betemit could hold down third until Mike Moustakas is ready.

Young veterans Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera will get a chance to turn their careers around and will start in the outfield to start the season.  The Royals are light with impact outfielders in their vaunted minors so if either can reach their early career potential, it would be a big positive for this team.

The catcher position is really void here.  If he were better defensively, I would want Bryan Pena to get a chance to be the guy, even when Jason Kendall returns.  When he has received steady work, Pena has hit for a decent average.

The pitching staff is full of 4^th and 5^th starter types.  Luke Hochevar will assume the mantle of staff ace and, much like Alex Gordon, he needs to prove he is not a bust.  Reclamation project Jeff Francis could prove to be a solid starter if he can return to his pre-injury form.  Kyle Davies will have one more chance to turn his light bulb on.  He pitches brilliantly for short stretches at a time, looking like an all-star, but he is wretchedly horrible the rest of the time.  Dude, throw strikes and keep the ball down.  Have you not figured that out yet?  Vin Mazzaro and Sean O’Sullivan will battle for the last starting spot with Bruce Chen probably getting the fourth spot.  How unspectacular is that?

Joakim Soria is one of the top closers in the game and IS spectacular in his consistency.  The bullpen in front of him should also be much improved.  One guy I want to watch is Tim Collins.  His minors’ numbers have been terrific but I want to see them matched in the majors.

Of course, if all the players continue down their present career paths, with no one reaching their potential, the Royals could lose more than 100 games and a lot of these players will be gone by August as Kansas City will begin getting some experience for their highly touted prospects.

3) Detroit Tigers.  Choosing which team to place here was my hardest decision.  I don’t think there is much difference between the top three teams and they could possibly finish in any order.  I put the Tigers here for the simple fact I don’t like their offense outside of Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez.  These two offensive stalwarts have been consistent top producers for several years.  If Cabrera keeps his personal problems away from the field, they should offer the Tigers a nice one-two punch in the middle of the line up.

The problem I have with Detroit is they have three players who will be relied heavily upon and they are getting long of tooth.  All are far on the wrong side of their careers and productivity and health are an issue.  Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, and Brandon Inge have all had nice careers but I think it dangerous to count on much from this trio. 

The Tigers do have some nice youth but two of their brightest performers in the first half last season have questions surrounding them.  Brandon Boesch had a terrific first half and an awful second half and looks to be the fourth outfielder.  Austin Jackson put up nice numbers as a rookie but luck looks to have played a big part in his success according to his peripherals.  Alex Avila is another young player who needs to improve at the plate to make an impact.

I look for Ryan Raburn to take advantage of his increased playing time to produce nice numbers, and Jhonny Peralta needs to return to the skill set he displayed earlier in his career.  Will Rhymes, Scott Sizemore, and Casper Wells could have opportunity to contribute if age and health break down some of the penciled in starters.

Detroit’s strength is at the top of their rotation.  Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer offer as much power pitching from the top spots as any combination in the league.  Rick Porcello is a nice complement at the third spot, but Brad Penny is returning from injury and Phil Coke is converting from the bullpen to the rotation, ala C.J. Wilson in Texas.  I think Penny could be a sleeper but I doubt Coke enjoys Wilson’s success.

The bullpen is a nice collection of big arms and is anchored nicely by the emotional and sometimes inconsistent Jose Valverde.  Valverde was awesome in the first half but struggled some in the dog days.  Look for him to continue to be the man.

Detroit has the second best rotation in the division but I don’t trust the fragility of the offense to hold for a full season.  Too many questions at the plate for me to rank them better than third.

2)Minnesota Twins.  The Twins’ season could very well come down to two simple questions.  Can Joe Mauer’s knees hold up and will Justin Morneau recover enough from his concussion to return to his productive levels.  If the answer is to both, then the Twins will challenge for the Central.  If it is no for both, the Twins may be in trouble.  These two guys are the backbone of this franchise and they need to be healthy for the Twins to be successful.  It worries me that Minnesota appeared to be willing to trade their number one starter for the right deal to the Yankees.  Would they be willing if both players were going to be 100%?

Minnesota does have some nice depth at the outfield/DH positions.  The solid Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, who should be back to full strength by Opening Day or shortly thereafter, the improving Delmon Young, and the venerable Jim Thome will probably be rotated as they have in the past.  These guys as a unit offer a nice mix of speed, power, and average and are all solid players.

The rest of the infield will have a bit of a different look.  Alexi Casilla, who failed as a starting two-bagger early in his career, is now the starting shortstop.  The Twins imported Japanese all-star,Tsuyoshi Nishioka,  to play second.  These two should offer nice range up the middle.  Danny Valencia mans third base and offers a nice average but little average.

I am not a fan of Minnesota’s rotation.  Francisco Liriano is a strong ace but has had health issues in the past.  I think he is past them and can be a workhorse.  Does Carl Pavano’s strong season in 2010 mean he has put his career inconsistency behind him?  The Twins think so.  And where did the Twins buy that cookie cutter they use for all these pitchers that keep arriving from the minors.  Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, & Brian Duensing all seem like the same pitcher too me.  It doesn’t matter who is in the rotation.  They are all solid, if unspectacular, guys who pitch to contact.  They work half their games in a nice hitter’s park and don’t excite me or anyone else.  I wish the Royals had a couple of them!

In a common theme with the rest of the division, the Twins boast a solid bullpen with two closer candidates. Matt Capps will probably get most of the saves early until Joe Nathan shows he has completely recovered his health and effectiveness.  If Nathan is feeling good, it is hard not to imagine him closing out games.

The Twins are a solid team, maybe even better than solid if Mauer and Morneau are healthy.  It is not a flashy bunch but they are sound all around and could win this division.

1)Chicago White Sox.  To me, it is clear cut the White Sox are the best team in the Central.  They have the best rotation in the division and a strong offense.  I don’t see any glaring weaknesses, except possibly at third. 

Most of Chicago’s power will be generated from the first base and DH positions.  At his age, it is unreasonable to expect Paul Konerko to match his 2010 stats but he should not be too far off.  Adam Dunn, though, is one of the most, if not the most, consistent homerun hitter in the Majors.  A decade of banging home runs should continue, and maybe even increase in Chicago.  These two big boys could knock out a combined 70 round trippers (remember when that was a ho-hum season for a single slugger). 

Look for Alex Rios to maintain his numbers from last year and hopefully 2009 was an aberration.  Juan Pierre will continue to spark the offense with his speed.  The White Sox could truly dominate if Carlos Quentin overcomes the injuries and inconsistency that have plagued him over the past couple of campaigns.  Alex Ramirez is a nice guy to have at shortstop.  He is solid enough to be a top five shortstop in the AL.  Gordon Beckham will bounce back and will probably produce numbers very similar to Ramirez.  The biggest weakness is at third.  The White Sox want to give Brent Morel the job but if he proves not to be ready, it will not be the end of the world.  They still have the plain but steady Mark Teahen to hold down the fort until he is.  Doesn’t it seem like A.J. Pieryznski has been around forever?  What’s one more year?

I love the White Sox rotation.  Wouldn’t it be nice if Mark Buehrle was your worst starter?  That could be the case.  With John Danks as the emerging ace, a steady Gavin Floyd, and an undervalued Edwin Jackson, what team could ask for more, other than Philadelphia?  Even Jake Peavy has been encouraging this spring.  That would just be the cherry on top.

Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen always seem to push the right buttons when comes to assembling and using a bullpen.  They do a great job getting the most of their arms.  It will be interesting, though, to see who emerges as the favorite to close.  Guillen seems to be leaning toward Matt Thornton or youngster Chris Sale.  I have the feeling whomever he chooses will get the job done.

It seems easy to pick the team with the fewest questions to win this division.  It certainly doesn’t take a genius, but I believe the rest of the division will be hard pressed to surpass Chicago.  I don’t foresee many long losing streaks with this rotation and, with the nice array of hitters up and down the line up, I think the White Sox will score a lot of runs.  With this rotation, the White Sox could also be very hard to beat in the playoffs as well.

I do want to apologize for one thing.  I am terrible at proofreading my own work.  I think faster than I type and I have huge, clumsy hands, therefore I usually have typos galore.  I know what I was thinking when I was typing so when I read through these posts, I often miss errors.  Luckily, my brother lets me know when my posts look like a third grader typed them and I can go back later and edit them.  Thanks Jon.  I need all the help I can get.

Why Kansas Won't Win the National Championship

I really want to be wrong here.  I love the Jayhawks.  I want them to win every game they play.  I am so spoiled as a fan, I expect them to win every single time they play.  I definitely think they have the talent and the capabilities to win another championship.  When they are on their game, they are unbeatable.  In this year of very mediocre college basketball, Kansas has a better chance than most at making a six-game run.  I will be thrilled if they do and not even surprised.  But I don't think they will.

Part of it is the recent history of early defeats in the tournament.  Yes, we won a great championship in 2008 and it was fantastic.  We also lost to Bucknell, Bradley, and Northern Iowa very early in past seasons.  This scares me.  This version of the Jayhawks has only lost two games but they have displayed numerous weaknesses over the season that really worry me when it comes to winning out.

The Jayhawks tend to play down to their opponents.  They don't come out focused sometimes and if they fall behind a weaker team, it will give that team the confidence they can hang.  Kansas has shown the ability to fight back and win some close games they probably should have lost and that will help them if have a slow start.  Kansas also has a propensity to get a good first half lead and have a big second half letdown, letting teams crawl back into the game.  The Jayhawks need to be merciless and stand on some necks when the get a big lead.  Don't let these temas back up.

Although these tendencies are worrisome, some other things bother me more.  As talented as the KU guards are, they tend to be very inconsistent.  Kansas plays five talented guards that all offer different things but seldom do they all play near their best in a single game, let alone six in a row.  These guards really need to be into every game mentally if KU is to advance very far.  Another things that drives me a crazy is Kansas' free throw shooting.  For the most part, they are terrible from the line.  Concentration is needed here and it seems to wander whenever they approach the line.  In a close game, with any opponent in the field, KU has to hit their charity shots.  Keep Memphis in mind from 2008.  KU also needs to play tougher defense for a whole forty minutes.  This may be Coach Self's worst defensive team.  They aren't terrible but I just don't think they are as good as some past teams, especially on the interior.  If they buckle down on the defensive end, they are good enough offensively to win most games.  I would also like to see them eliminate all of the technicals for elbows, forearms, and trash talking.  It would be horrible if a technical in a tournament game cost us a victory.

There are a lot of things I love about this team.  The Morris brothers, plus Thomas Robinson, are a load for any team to guard.  They are so versatile, few teams have the horses to slow them down.  This a very good shooting team, which stems from the terrific ball movement they get in the half court offense.  When Kansas doesn't fall in love with shooting three pointers and pound it inside, they are almost unstoppable. They are certainly deserving a number one seed and they could make a run to another championship.  If they don't, though, the negative tendencies I listed will be the reasons.  If they can put those bad habits behind them for the tournament, Kansas will be hanging another banner in Phog Allen Fieldhouse.  If they don't overcome these things, it will be a too early exit for the Jayhawks.  Let's hope for the banner.

I look for the Pittsburg Panthers to win the National Championship.  They have been battled tested in the Big East and have a nice combination of an inside and an outside game.  That prediction worked out well, didn't?

Royals Prospects: Heroes or Heart Crushers?

Alex Gordon.  Alex Gordon is a name that scares the crap out of me.  A cautionary tale if there ever was one for Royals fans.  Alex Gordon, who was drafted second overall in 2005, and rightly so.  Alex Gordon, who has seen fellow 2005 first round picks Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Andrew McCutchen, and Jay Bruce really enjoy some success.  Alex Gordon, who has pounded collegiate and minor league pitching.  The same Alex Gordon who has a career .244 batting average in the Majors in 1442 At Bats. A few years ago, Gordon and Billy Butler were to be the cornerstones on which this once proud organization would rebuild.  Butler, although a slight tick below his expectations, especially in power, has held up his end, Gordon has done nothing to even come close to his potential.

That cynicism, nurtured for more than two decades, is what is stifling my hope and joy over the bevy of Royals prospects peaking over the horizon at us.  And I am not the only one.  Scott McKinney did a great a study on the success and failure rate of Baseball America's Top 100 MLB prospects from 1990 to 2003 (www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424) and he found that only about 30% of all prospects have MLB success.  I will qualify that with an opinion of my own.  McKinney's study is terrific and detailed, but I would think that both Baseball America and Major League teams themselves do a much better job scouting and analyzing players now than they did twenty years ago, so that 30% is probably slightly higher in the last decade than in the early 1990s.  Even so, with this analysis, the odds are against the Royals getting more than 3 or 4 successful players out of this first wave of prospects.

The optimist in me, though, does take notice of the fact the Royals have a record setting wave of prospects.  By now, you know the numbers - three of the top 10, five of the top 20, and ten in the top 101 (I read that Jeremy Jeffress was rated 101).  That 30% increases when talking about players ranked in the top 10 and top 20.  So there is hope that Kansas City can buck the odds.  I certainly hope so.

I am not going to go down the list and throw stats and trends at you from every direction.  There are plenty of places you can go to find stats and statistical analysis for these players.  I have read several myself.  I will, however, give you my brief take on some of the players.  I have formed these opinions and impressions based stats, statistical analysis, and commentary from numerous sources.

The two players I think will be the most successful are Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers.  From everything I have read, these two will hit for average and power, although not as much power as Mike Moustakas.  Hosmer and Myers make good contact and neither strikeout a ton.  Both will be good in the field - Myers will probably be better in the outfield than he was at catcher.  We may see Hosmer later this summer but we will not see Myers until next season.  I like Mike Moustakas but he evidently has a few more holes in his swing than the other two, if not more power.  Although he has a great knowledge of the strike zone, he still has some struggles against lefties.  Unless he tanks, we will probably see him sometime this summer.

Pitchers have a lower success rate than hitters but the Royals are loaded, especially with lefties.  We know that of the top 5 starting pitchers in the system, Kansas City will be lucky if two of them turn out to be good Major League starters.  The others will get hurt, or will be moved to the bullpen, or just won't be able to get hitters out at the elite level.  Those are the percentages; that is life.  Last weekend, though, at Ron Shandler's First Pitch Chicago, Jim Callis of Baseball America, said he loved all four of the Royals lefties - Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Danny Duffy, and Chris Dwyer ( Callis also had 17 Royals in his Top 200 prospects).  My take is that Lamb may be the most talented, but we need a bigger sample size.  Montgomery and Duffy could evolve into #2 starter types.  It is also possible that Duffy and or Dwyer could end up in the bullpen, especially early.  We could see all of these at some point in 2011 but probably not for very many appearances for any of them.

One thing that has frustrated me for years is the fact that Kansas City has not been able to develop good middle relievers.  The Royals have been signing guys for years to fill those spots.  That is about to change.  The Royals have several pitchers, developed in the minors as relievers, that could have a positive impact this season.  Tim Collins, who we got in the Ankiel trade last summer, has put up some sick good numbers in the minors.  He has been dismissed by numerous people throughout his career because of his size (5'7"/170) but he has had success wherever he has pitched.  He could come north with the team and, if not, we should see him soon.  The Royals also have Louis Coleman, Patrick Keating, and Blaine Hardy who may offer positive help this season.  Plus, the Royals acquired Jeremy Jeffress in the Greinke deal and he most certainly will make the team and if he can harness his control a little, he could be dominate.

Of all these players I have mentioned, though, there is a chance, a good chance, only about a third of them will be successful in the Majors.  One thing in our favor is the sheer number of top prospects and if the Royals do buck the odds somewhat and get help from more than 30%, then the future looks bright indeed.  Also keep in mind, though, the name Alex Gordon.  As a lifelong KC fan, I will be sick if there is considerably more failure than success out of these players.  Kansas City, as a team and as a city, needs most of these players to be success.  I don't know how many more rebuilding plans I can stomach.  I don't know if I can take too many more Alex Gordons.

A quick mention of a couple of prospects that are kind of flying under the radar or are too young to be talked about much  - catcher Salvador Perez has really been turning heads this spring and is only 20 years old, and Clint Robinson, who won the AA triple crown last season  and is not mentioned much because he isn't very good defensively.

I want to list some of my sources here - ranyontheroyals.com, kingsofkaufman.com, royalsreview.com, Baseball America, and 2011 Minor League Baseball Analysis.

The Value of Projected Player Values

I am in a huge minority, I'm afraid.  I do not (and never have) pay much attention to fantasy baseball projected player values.  I just don't see the point.  Most projected values you see online or in publications are based on a standard 5x5, 12 team league, for either the NL or AL.  Just what is the percentage of leagues out there that fall within these parameters?  I have been playing fantasy baseball for over 20 years, usually three, or four, or five, leagues a year, and I don't think I have EVER played in a league that fell within those parameters.  So many variables come into play - categories, number of teams, size of the rosters, etc - to accurately compute what a player's value would be in most leagues.

Even Ron Shandler, who has made projections his life's work, has started to question the purpose of predicting stats and values over the last couple of years, as evidenced by some of his comments in the 2010 & 2011 Baseball Forcaster. With injuries, playing time based on the whims of managers, ball park changes, age, etc. how can anyone take projections with a grain of salt?  Why would anyone waste valuable prep time pouring over projections, especially when they can vary considerably from website to website, from publication to publication?  Projected values are merely someone's educated guess about a league that is not yours.

In my opinion, owners should decide for themselves what a player's value is, IN THEIR OWN LEAGUE.  This should be based on what the categories are, size, and other owners.  The unique owners in your league have as much to do with what players will sell for in a draft than just about anything else.  Are there a couple of owners in your league that covet steals?  Are there owners in your league who always pay too much for saves?  These are just a few of the nuances that affect values in an auction.

These values don't take into account the ebb and flow of an auction either.  Things like how much over bidding goes in your particular league early, or the position scarcity that will arise inevitably when you are battling one other owner for the last even mediocre middle infielder left.  A few years ago, at the end of an auction, I paid $24 for Adrian Beltre (not after one of his good years), because one other owner besides myself had money and a third baseman slot left and there was a huge chasm between Beltre and the leftovers.  Was Beltre worth $24?  Not at the beginning of the auction, but the market value for him at that point and time was $24.

Everyone who plays fantasy baseball knows the basic value of a player in your league without memorizing that info from a website, book, or magazine.  You already know Derrick Lee is probably going to go between $12 and $18 in your auction.  You know that someone will overpay for Derek Jeter based on his position and age.  (Curious side note - what would Jeter go for if he was an outfielder?).  These things are common sense to someone with fantasy baseball experience.  What you should be studying are the player stats and peripherals and which way are they trending.  If you knows these, you already know that you could safely pay $12 for Lee but not $18, and that you should let anyone else over pay on a rapidly aging shortstop.

It is so much more valuable to know if a player is trending up or down in his walk rate, or contact rate, or fly ball rate, and how that will help or hurt your team, in your league, rather than know what arbitrary number someone else has placed on that player.

I know most fantasy owners do not agree with me on this point.  That's okay.  I will just spend my time studying what is important.

Relevence of Spring Training to Fantasy Baseball

In this era of algebraic statistical analysis, where we pour over volumes of data trying to find even the slightest edge over our opponents, one might wonder how much stock he should put into spring training stats and performances.  In my humble opinion, very little, especially in the first couple of weeks.  At this time, we should just be overjoyed that there is baseball again and be happy to follow our favorite teams and players.  With all the other preparation we do for our upcoming drafts, do we really need to spend time delving into the significance of Matt Garza's 3 innings of scoreless dominance, or Carl Crawford's 2-2 day?  My answer is no.  In those three innings of work, how many AA batters did Garza face?  How many of his outs were recorded against players who will actually be playing every day in April?  What pitcher(s) did Crawford face?  Was there  any stress or meaning in his plate appearances?  This is a time for batters and pitchers to get their timing down and to build up the strength and stamina and really has no significance to fantasy baseball.

Now, when the spring rosters are winnowed , and pitchers start to stretch their pitch counts a little, and batters start playing more innings, then we can show a little more specific attention.  Even then, if Albert Pujols hits .200 in the spring, are you going to pay any less for him?  The only spring stats I pay attention to are the bad stats for pitchers.  If A.J. Burnett is getting consistently kicked around in the spring, then his recent downward trends are probably going to continue.  All this does is convince me I should look elsewhere for pitching.  You might want to monitor the performances of players, especially pitchers, that are dealing with injuries.  Is Brandon Webb getting anyone out?  How is is velocity?  This information could be useful on draft day but it not worth more than a casual glance at the box score or game notes.

Spring training should be a time of enjoyment and anticipation, as a back drop for your preparations for your upcoming draft.  Be excited for your first glimpse of that heralded prospect that could be up in June.  Don't get overly excited about the awesome play or depressed about the poor performances of the stars you intend to protect as keepers.  Don't put too much into the displays of power and offense of batters playing spring ball in Arizona and don't abandon ship if a pitcher gets shellacked while throwing 75% curve balls in an outing as he tries to work off the rust.

As fantasy owners, we have enough data to devour without adding too much more, especially if it is rather insignificant in the long run.  Enjoy the fact baseball is back and it is only a short wait until we do need to pay attention to the stats and performances.

I will be attending Ron Shandler's First Pitch in Chicago this weekend.  I will post something early next week.

Welcome to my blog!

Hi, my name is Joel and welcome to my blog.  I've decided to start my own blog because I have numerous interests and I wanted an outlet to share my views, ideas, knowledge, and opinions with others.  Most of my blogs will be sports related.  I am in several fantasy baseball leagues and I work a lot in fine tuning league rules.  I do some fantasy football as well.  I love baseball, football, college basketball, & golf.  I am a fan of the Kansas City Royals, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Kansas Jayhawks.  While most of my posts will be fantasy baseball related, there will posts pertaining to sports in general, and these teams specifically. 

I also love movies, television, and books.  It is quite probable that I will post thoughts on these topics more than occasionally as well.  If you ever have any feedback, feel free to to comment.  I am open to discussions on any topics I post. 

I promise also to avoid rumor mongering.  While I will be vocal about my opinions, I will try to make sure I distinguish between fact, rumor, and opinion as the situation calls for it.  I won't post every single day, but I will make an effort to write something 3 or 4 times a week, especially over the next few weeks as I consider March the best sports month of the year.  Look for a lot of baseball, fantasy and real, over the next month, as well as some NCAA basketball as we get into March Madness.