Many of you will be drafting over the next two weekends. Today’s blog is just a set of reminders and hints to help you prepare for your drafts.
I think one of the most underrated facets of fantasy baseball is draft day strategies. While most people will go into their draft with a basic idea of what they want to do, I don’t think that is enough. I believe it is very important to have a clear strategy mapped out for your draft.
Even before you form your strategies, it is very important to study your league. I know this sound fundamental, and it is, but it should be mentioned anyway. Know your leagues rules. You should read through them every season before your draft, especially if you are in multiple leagues with different sets of rules. Make sure these rules are clear in your mind. Know you categories. This is very important because every format, every set of different categories, add or subtract certain values. Standard 4x4 leagues are very much ERA and WHIP dominated. Strikeouts don’t even matter in these leagues, as hard as that is to understand. Don’t worry about them. If you are in a 4x4 league, you should carry as many relievers as you possibly can and still meet your league minimum for innings pitched. Relievers will come very cheap in the auction and free up more money for home run hitters with good averages. If you are in a 5x5 standard league, those high average home run hitters are even more valuable. By taking a hard look at the categories, you can determine what type of players will impact the biggest number of those categories.
Know your fellow owners. This sounds silly but most owners will use the same strategies year in and year out. You don’t have to keep a diary (although I think it is a good idea) but you should takes notes directly after each draft on how each owner drafted, then compare notes year to year and see if there is a pattern. Some owners like to stock up on saves and stolen bases during the draft. Some owners will load up on offense early and take leftovers for pitching. Information is a weapon and you should use whatever weapons are available. Some sites will save draft histories from previous years for you to check out before your draft.
There are as many strategies as there are formats. In keeper leagues, know what categories you are already strong in and draft to strengthen your weaknesses. It is all right to target players but have a second or third or fourth option for each player you target in case you don’t get the players you want. Don’t lock in on a player so hard you overpay several dollars for him. And don’t panic if you don’t get your first choices. I’ve seen so many owners not get the players they wanted and then just sit there and let good player after good player go off the board without making a move and suddenly they have a fortune of draft dollars on the table and dregs left on the board. This is easy to do. Have a strategy but don’t ruin yourself trying to stick to it. Have a strategy and do your best to stick to it but be prepared to alter it if necessary.
In non-keeper leagues, work on having a well rounded roster. Don’t tank a category in the draft. It is very hard to win any league coming in last in a category. If you finish third in every category, chances are you will win you league. Balance your roster during the draft.
Some hints for a successful draft – don’t over spend for saves. According to Baseball Forecaster, over the last ten years, 40% of all pitchers drafted as closers are replaced by their MLB teams before the season ends. There are so few dependable, dominant closers out there. I try to get at least one named closer from a small market team (because they are cheaper) and fill in with a couple of the possible closers from other teams. Since there is always an owner or two that stock up on saves, chances are you can make a trade for saves during the season. Avoid injury prone starting pitchers, especially if they are under 27 or 28 years old. Look for pitchers in their late 20s or early 30s with a good history of health. Don’t speculate with a lot of young pitchers. Shoot for solid veteran starters with low walk rates and ground ball pitchers.
Don’t spend more than $30 for more than one player. It is a bad idea to tie up too much of your draft budget on too few players. Chances are, in most formats, you will have to pay over $30 to get one stud and that’s okay. Stay away from studs who have struggled with injuries. I find it hard to bid on Josh Hamilton because of his history of nagging injuries. He is terrific when healthy but it could be devastating to your team when he’s hurt.
Buy catchers cheap. Few catchers are worth more than a few dollars. Buy these players cheap and spend a few extra bucks on a player who doesn’t take every fifth or sixth game off.
If a good player is going cheap, bid on him, even if he isn’t one of your targeted players. Good players are good players. Any good player you get on the cheap is a plus for your team. Be flexible.
When preparing for your drafts, don’t focus on the raw stats, especially arbitrary stats like Wins. Study trends. Look for players in their mid to late 20s or early 30s that are trending up in their peripherals. Look for veteran players who are solid and steady, year in and year out. Do your homework. Buying a magazine the night before your draft and leafing through it just doesn’t cut the mustard in this day and age. Assume your fellow owners are doing more. Anyone can draft Carl Crawford but how many owners know Seth Smith has the increased playing time and good peripherals to have a break out season?
There is a popular saying that states you can’t necessarily win your league on draft day but you can definitely lose your league on draft day. I truly believe this statement to be true. Most of the items in this article today are not new or mind blowing. Sometimes, though, it is good to be reminded that the basics still need to be attended to. Do your homework, know your league, and form a workable and realistic strategy and you will have a successful draft and a successful season. Good luck in your drafts.
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