Monday, October 22, 2012

2012-2013 Kansas Basketball Preview



I originally planned to make my predictions for the Big XII 2012-2013 basketball season but after doing some research, I decided it was just too tough and would serve no point.  Other than predicting Texas Tech and TCU as the worst two schools, nothing else is very predictable.  Even choosing Kansas to win their 9th straight conference title, while easy to do considering their recent history, may not be as clear as it seems.  The conference will have eight very competitive teams this season and I can see almost all of them capable of winning the championship if things fell their way.

Instead, I decided to just focus on Kansas.  I will give reasons why it is quite possible for them to continue their remarkable streak and reasons why it is not a sure thing for them to repeat as conference regular season champs again.

This will be a very athletic Kansas team but it will be very young.  KU does have strong, experienced seniors in place in Elijah Johnson, Travis Releford, Jeff Withey, and Kevin Young but after those four, there is very little collegiate experience.  These four seniors will get a lot of playing time but most are new to their currant roles.  Only Releford will be filling a role he has enjoyed in the past.  Johnson and Withey are now the team leaders, the players opponents will focus on.  They do not have Tyshawn Taylor or Thomas Robinson to draw attention.  These two men will have to step forward and prove they are the next stars in KU’s long history.  Young will be relied on to bring energy and play more minutes than last year.  Only Releford seems to have the same role – that of the steady glue guy. 

Justin Wesley does have a bit of experience but I really doubt he will be able to make the rotation.  Nadir Tharpe played sparingly as a freshman, and while he looked lost much of the time, he appeared to take a step in the right direction toward the end of the season.  He has to earn Coach Bill Self’s trust to be the back-up point guard.

The Jayhawks are loaded with talented freshman.  Academic redshirts Ben McLemore and Jamari Traylor have seen the court in games but do enjoy spending a year in the system.  There is chance McLemore will start at the third guard position and Traylor will be counted on to offer depth along the front line.  Perry Ellis and Andrew White III will both see plenty of action and should offer some offensive punch to the line-up.  There is a good chance Ellis will start at the four.  I am not sure where Anrio Adams will fit in.  He is probably more of the prototypical Self guard than Tharpe, with the size and skills to play either guard position.  My guess is that he will either earn a rotation spot, which will be a big bonus, or he will have to bide his time, learn, improve, then contribute in future seasons. 

Finally, KU has two big guys vying for minutes in back-ups roles, Landon Lucas and Zach Peters.  I am not sure which one will earn the rotation minutes but I think Peters is more of a project therefore Lucas should get more playing time.  If these two guys both make big leaps in improvement, they may be they keys to just how good KU can be.  Self likes to play an aggressive, physical style of basketball and the more fouls he can give, the harder his troops can go at it.

If I were to project Self’s 9-man rotation, really two deeper than last season’s, I would guess the four seniors are locked down, plus Ellis, McLemore, White, and either Tharpe or Adams, and one out of the threesome of Traylor, Lucas, and Peters.  Whatever three are left out shows just how deep this version is.  Any of three players that be remaining should be able to push those ahead of him on the depth chart and could earn more playing time as the season goes along.  With this depth, it will be a more prototypical Self team and their should be plenty of competition for playing time. 

This team will have its share of weaknesses.  While Withey alters a lot of shots, he is often out of position when it comes to rebounding.  The guards and whatever other frontline player may be in the game are going to have to crash the boards hard.  I can easily see this team struggling to hold their own.  I am worried Ellis will get out manned against bigger, more physical forwards.  I am not sold on Johnson as the primary ball handler.  I have seen little in his career that leads me to think he can handle those duties for more than thirty minutes each game.  Releford has never been know for his ball handling skills and I don’t know how strong McLemore and White III are with the ball in their hands.  Self likes a multitude of guys capable of bringing the ball up and I just don’t see much here.  Tharpe and Adams could see their minutes increase if KU struggles getting the ball up the floor.

While KU does have its core of seniors, they are really going to count on most of the rest of the minutes coming from freshmen.  Traditionally, freshmen have underperformed under Self.  The Jayhawks really need three or four of these youngsters to excel early and often for KU to successfully defend its title streak.  I am also worried that KU’s excellent coaching staff will miss Danny Manning and his work with the big guys.  Will the KU big guys be able to continue to excel in footwork and moves around the basket since Manning took the Tulsa head coaching post?  I think his leaving will have an affect on this program.  If any staff can minimize the possible damage of Manning’s absence, it is this one.

Kansas certainly has to be considered the favorite to win the Big XII but it is not a sure thing.  The seniors will have to seamlessly step into the new, enhanced, leadership roles, and the young guys will need to mature quickly.  If KU can overcome possible deficiencies on the boards and with ball handling, there is no reason this squad can’t enjoy the same successes past teams have earned.  If this team is a deep as it looks on paper, it will be a very hard team to beat.

Sunday, October 7, 2012

2012 Royal Wrap-Up



Another extremely disappointing baseball season is now behind us and I have some post season thoughts I would like to share.

I have always been a Kevin Seitzer fan.  I was happy when he was hired and for a certain kind of team, he is a terrific hitting coach.  If you have a young, untalented team with no power, Seitzer’s philosophy of middle-to-opposite field hitting is a sound hitting theory.  When you have a team of young, talented guys with very nice power upsides, it’s not that great.  Under Seitzer, Kansas City has been in the top four in the AL in batting average the last three years.  They have also been in the top half in doubles the last 3 years (top three in 2011 and 2012).  Unfortunately, the Royals have also been toward the bottom of the AL in runs scored (except for 2011 when they finished 6th) and home runs.  Seitzer had success with guys like Escobar and Getz, and he deserves some credit for turning Alex Gordon in the right direction.  He had a lot less success with guys with bigger swings, like Hosmer, Moustakas, and Franceour.  I don’t count Billy Butler because I have a feeling Country Breakfast is pretty much his own hitting instructor.  I like Seitzer but I agree the Royals need to go a different direction with the personnel on this team.

On October 3rd, Rany Jazayerli broke down the Royals long history of avoiding walks on offense on his excellent blog http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/.  I could not agree with him any more that this is a problem that needs to be fixed organizationally. 

Billy Butler should now be considered one of the top right handed hitters in the AL right now.  His .313/.373/.510 averages slash line is outstanding and he threw in 29 HR and 107 RBI just for kicks.  He is now truly a middle of the line-up hitter in a potentially potent line-up.  Butler is just 26 years old with a .300 career average, and already has over 3500 AB, over 100 HR, over 200 doubles, and almost 500 RBI.  His best years are quite possibly still ahead of him.

The Royals are filled with exciting, under-30, budding stars.  None are more exciting to watch than Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar.  Both were much better than expected on offense and both are as fun to watch on defense as any players at their positions in all of baseball.  Both are signed long term so I am thrilled at the prospect of watching them on a daily basis for many years to come.

Speaking of terrific defensive play, Alex Gordon has solidified himself as maybe the best defensive left fielder in all of baseball.  This link, http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/10/4/3452656/the-most-valuable-royal, provides some sources if anyone watching didn’t believe what their eyes were telling you.  Also, Mike Moustakas is a MUCH better defensive player than anyone thought he would be.  He has good hands and a rifle for an arm. 

If the Royals are going to contend soon, youngsters Hosmer and Moustakas MUST take big steps forward in 2013.  A lot of the immediate future of the Kansas City Royals is tied up with these two guys. 

Do you know what team holds the record for most strikeouts from a bullpen in a season?  Well, it is the 2012 Kansas City Royals with 535.  What an impressive effort by a very young group of relief pitchers. 

I will disbelieve any thought that the Royals are serious about winning if they do not cut Luke Hochevar.  He is awful and has been for many years now.  I cannot bear the thought of him in a Royals uniform next season.

It will be a very interesting off season this year as we will see just how hard the Royals pursue starting pitching.  Free agent aces will seldom, if ever, sign with small market teams.  Those small market teams just can’t afford to compete with the big boys in offering big, long contracts to pitchers.  Small market teams just cannot take the same chances on these contracts as the Yankees, or Red Sox, or Dodgers can.  It is a fact.  That doesn’t mean Kansas City can’t make serious runs at pitchers who would slot in as number two or three starters.  If they could somehow add two number 2 starters, I would be ecstatic. 

Finally, Royals fans took a bit of grief nationally for relentlessly riding Robinson Cano during the All-Star festivities.  I had absolutely zero problems with the fans for letting Cano know they were displeased with him for not picking Billy Butler for the Home Run Derby.  Cano twice stated he would, then didn’t.  He should be accountable for lying to fans.  In a great story, these same fans, on the last day of the season, robustly cheered rival Miguel Cabrera when he officially won the first Triple Crown in 45 years.  Royals fans cheered the Detroit Tiger long and loud enough that Miggy gave them a curtain call in appreciation, also recognizing the tribute the Royals players and staff also paid him by their applause as well.  Cabrera was sincerely appreciative of the ovation.  It was a touching moment all around.  Royals’ owner, discount king David Glass, should need little more proof how hungry local fans are for something to cheer about.  Kansas City was a great baseball town at one time, before David Glass squeezed out all hope.  These fans deserve better. 

An a related topic, I have a hard time listening and reading to all of the debate around the MVP.  Miguel Cabrera won the first Triple Crown since 1967.  There is a reason it hasn’t been done in 45 years.  Poo-poo the Triple Crown categories all you want.  It is still an amazing accomplishment for the offensive leader of a divisional winner and for there even to be an argument is just plain silly.  I love stats as much as anyone; I get in what ways Trout had a great, historic season, but SO DID MIGUEL CABRERA!!!  He has been one of the most consistent run producers in recent years and was a total team players, switching positions with little or no complaint (unlike a certain former Marlin), and playing better than expected.  Please put this argument to bed and just give Miggy the MVP trophy. 

Thanks for reading.