Jeremy Guthrie vs. the Stat Geeks

I use the term “stat geek” in only the most complimentary manner possible.  I am a stat geek.  I have been for years.  I was the kid who minded the stats books for the girls’ games before my games in junior high and high school.  I kept stats on my own video games.  I studied the back of baseball and football cards until I knew all the numbers.  When fantasy baseball rose to prominence in the 1980s, I was one of the first in line and I have been hooked ever since.

I love all the stats like the hard stats like home runs, stolen bases, RBI, etc.  I like the peripheral stats like on-base percentage, slugging percentage etc.  I like the trending skill stats like ground ball rate, contact rate, strikeouts per 9 innings, K/BB, batting average on ball in play, etc.  I even love algebraic stats like wins above replacement and runs above replacement.  So much of baseball – real and fantasy – is based on the projecting of stats through scientific and mathematical analysis.  We try to predict hard stats much more scientifically than we used to be analyzing players’ trending skills.  For example, if a hitter bats .320 for a season and he enjoyed an average of .360 on balls in play (batted balls in between the lines), we can predict with confidence that his batting average will drop the next year.  Throughout baseball history, the average on balls put in play is right around .300.  If our batter hit .360, we know he enjoyed extreme luck on batted balls.  The odds are very good that luck at that level will not continue for a second season, therefore his batting average will most likely drop.  The point is I love all of these stats and I use them all the time to analyze players.  Sometimes, though, the numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Now we come to the part of this post that I have rewritten three times this morning.  I keep falling into a deep explanation of stats and what separates similarly skilled players from one another.  That is not what I intended when I started this piece.  I decided to write this because I am ticked off at the reaction of all the stat geeks out there to the Royals signing Jeremy Guthrie, and also to their reaction to the Royals trading for Ervin Santana a couple of weeks ago.  There are several stat guys and bloggers out there that I have read and respected for years.  I still do but I have gotten very frustrated with them over the past few weeks.

I am not going to list all of the bloggers and their sites.  Let’s just say these are some very smart, very passionate guys.  Most are Royals fans but a couple others are just stat geeks.  Some are baseball guys – you know the talking heads on television.  Almost to a man these guys are ripping the Royals for the money they have committed to Santana and Guthrie.  Their point is the Royals could have spent their allotted free agent money more wisely.  My question to all of these guys is how?

Kansas City will pay Santana $11 million in 2013 (it’s 12 actually but they received a million form the Angels) and they will pay $5 million to Guthrie this season, $11 million in 2014, $9 million in 2015.  They have committed $36 million to receive 4 seasons of services (overlap in 2013).  I read a comment from one former GM, ragging on the Royals for paying $16 million to those two newly acquired pitchers.  He asked why they didn’t spend that money on Greinke or Anibal Sanchez.  This was an utterly stupid comment.  Neither of those pitchers, the best two options on the free agent market, are going to sign 1-year $16 million dollar deal with the Royals, or anyone else for that matter.  They are not going to sign a 2-year deal for $32 million deal either.  It would not surprise me if Greinke signs a 6-year, $120 million contract and I’m expecting at least 6 years and $90 million for Sanchez.  The Royals flat out can’t afford those contracts for that amount of years.

The next level of free agents is Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, and Kyle Lohse.  All of these three have their warts and are probably better than the two pitchers Kansas City added.  They are all probably going to command much bigger deals than what KC handed out.  There is still a chance the Royals can sign one of these guys but it is an outside chance because with such a limited market, these guys are probably going to be way over priced, more so than Guthrie.

Last night I got into a polite on-line argument with a stat guy about the length of Guthrie’s contract.  Another baseball guy, Rany Jazayerli, liked the signing but hates the third year so much he is not willing to endorse the signing.  I understand the argument but my stand was there was probably little chance the Royals sign him without that third year.  The debaters against the signing all point to that third year, saying you don’t give a 36-year old pitcher with pretty pedestrian numbers $9 million.  The contract averages $8.3 million a year.  That is not out of line with a pitcher of his caliber.  If Sanchez signs that 6-year, $90 million deal, will he be worth $15 million at the age of 34?  Will he provide more than 3 and a half times the value over the course of his contract than Guthrie will provide over the duration of his contract?  I sincerely doubt it very much. 

Another point is that premium free agents, especially top of the rotation pitchers are not going to sign in Kansas City, for any reasonable amount.  This is sad and it sucks but it is the absolutely the truth.  People can hide behind their keyboards and pontificate all they want about how terrible Dayton Moore is (and he has earned much of their scorn in all honesty) and how he should be spending money on the Greinkes and Sanchezes of the world.  That doesn’t change the fact they aren’t going to sign here.  I would love to be proved wrong but it will never happen at this point.  Until the Royals can improve their record and challenge for divisional titles, the Royals and Dayton Moore are going to have to slightly overpay for fringe free agents who only marginally improve the team.  That is a fact of life.  It is reality.  Quit begging the general manager to improve the team then bashing him when he does.  How about finding ways to be positive instead of filling your pages with negativity?  How maybe throwing some support behind your team?

Of course, I know the answers to those questions.  Whenever Moore has made a move with the major league roster, more often than not, it has ended in disaster.  We have to live with Moore’s bad judgments in signing Jeff Franceour and Bruce Chen to 2 year extensions for too much money.  We have to live with Moore trading anyone for Jonathon Sanchez.  We have to live with Moore signing terrible players like Yuniesky Betancourt.  Those types of moves do not translate into confidence when Moore signs a guy like Guthrie for 3 years.

I want to take a moment to examine Jeremy Guthrie.  If you throw out the very small sample size of Guthrie’s starts in Coors Field, his stats last year were right in line with his career numbers.  Many a pitcher has fallen apart in Coors Field.  Guthrie wasn’t the first and he won’t be the last.  I think we can safely toss out those three plus months in the Mile High City.  Guthrie has been consistent and durable, if not spectacular or flashy, throughout his career. The Royals desperately need a starter who can throw into the seventh on a regular basis.  One national talking head baseball guy has gone on the record that other GMs around the league think the Royals’ deal with Guthrie is a fair one because of his stamina and durability.  Rany Jazayerli does a great breakdown on Guthrie and comparable pitchers and their contracts at ranyontheroyals.com.

One stat guy told me last night he thought the Royals should tap into their deep reserves of minors to acquire pitching.  I agree and I hope this is still being pursued by the Royals’ front office.  Many people think KC should give up one of their young hitters but I think it is counterproductive to trade key offensive pieces on the major league level to acquire pitching.  What good is that pitcher if they can’t score runs for him?  The Royals do have a deep minor league system and I hope some of that talent can be moved to improve the big league roster.

Two years from now, I may be bemoaning the fact the Moore was an idiot and the Royals are paying a broken down, awful pitcher $9 million instead of having money freed up to sign a stud.  Feel free to remind me of this tirade then.  At this point, under the circumstances, Moore has added two arms better than what they had before.  I believe the market on free agent pitching is about to quickly explode and the Royals may end up with a couple of bargains.  Hopefully they will get the performances they are hoping for.  It seems the Murphy’s Law rules at Kaufman.  Eventually, there has to be a turning point for this organization.  Let’s hope it is 2013 and let’s try being less negative and more realistic.

Thanks for reading and have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving Day and weekend.

Miami Fire Sale

I have debated with myself about whether or not to write about the recent Toronto Blue Jays/Miami Marlins trade.  So much has been written about it already and it has been talked about on all of the sports channels.  I went ahead and penned this today because there are some things about the trade that really bother me and I just need to sort some thoughts out. 

First of all, I have to say BRAVO to the Blue Jays.  They were willing to open the checkbook and bring in five players who, in one way or another, will help them challenge in the AL East.  For me, it was a no-brainer on Toronto’s part.  If they are willing to accept the long term salary risks that accompany some of the players’ contracts, then I say good for them and good for their fans.  Their fans really can go into Spring Training with a positive attitude toward their chances for the 2013 season.

Secondly, one has to take a look at the trade itself and the players involved.  Toronto received Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle, Emilio Bonafacio, and John Buck.  Five players, all with their own warts, but all with talent to really fill out a roster and make significant contributions.  Miami received Yunel Escobar, Alvarez Henderson, Jeff Mathis, and four prospects, a couple of which are pretty decent MLB candidates.  Basically, Miami received an average shortstop, a number four starter that can’t strike anyone out, a career back up catcher, and four players who may or may not be average major leaguers someday.  I know it is a slippery slope to compare real major league baseball with fantasy baseball but if this trade were made in any keeper or dynasty leagues, it would have been challenged and overturned.  Miami just did not get enough back for the sheer volume of talent they shipped off.  If the deal would have been Reyes and either Johnson or Buerhle for Escobar, Henderson, and the best two prospects, this would have been closer to fair.  As it stands, though, the trade is completely imbalanced.

Thirdly, and this what bothers me the most, is the Marlins’ method of operation here.  They get a new stadium and in the winter before its grand opening, they go out and spend money like Steinbrenners.  Miami’s payroll doubled over last winter, going from approximately $57 million to $118 million.  Marlin fans rejoiced and I didn’t blame them.  Then the season started and things started to go askew.  Marlins’ manager Ozzie Guillen’s mouth got him in trouble (big surprise) right off the bat and Miami just couldn’t get it going.  The season slowly started to slip away.  In July, they shipped off the talented but discontented Hanley Ramirez, and then almost as soon as the season was over, they shipped closer Heath Bell off.  About a year go right now, baseball was toasting Miami for signing Bell, even though most knew they overpaid for him.  Miami signed Reyes and Buerhle to lucrative, end loaded, long term contracts and the future looked rosy.  Now, all of those players are gone, plus other key pieces.

Here we are, less than a year later, watching Miami ownership stab the fans in the hearts with the complete approval of Commissioner Bud Selig.  The Commissioner’s office took some time before giving the green light to this trade but I think it was just for show.  Selig was never, ever going to overturn this trade.  In truth, it would have set a bad precedent.  What I would like to see is a stern reprimand to Miami for their methodology, and a warning to other teams that this kind of behavior by ownerships won’t be tolerated.  That, or course, is not realistic and would never happen.  These teams belong to the ownership groups and not to the fans.  This has been shown to be the case over and over.  Owners can spend, or pocket, whatever money they want and in many cities, ownership couldn’t really care less about their fans.  In the last fifteen years, Miami has laid out some cash and won two championships (this fact still bugs me), then dismantled those teams instead of paying their increased salaries.  At least Miami fans have those two championships.

One more thing bothers me.  It has come out, and I have no way a verifying the truth of these reports, that the Marlins gave Reyes and Buerhle verbal agreements that they would not be traded.  The Marlins do not offer no-trade clauses so apparently they made gentlemen’s agreements with a couple of stars to get them to sign.  If this is true, the players’ union should warn all of their members that the word of the Marlins means nothing.

So, as we look to the 2013 season, the Marlins should be terrible and the Blue Jays should be the favorite in the AL East.  Not only do they have the players they traded for but they also have Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie, Brandon Morrow, among others.  They also just signed disgraced All Star MVP Melky Cabrera to a 2-year deal.  There rotation isn’t scary good, and there is as much chance it falters as it succeeds.  The bullpen could have some holes in it, but overall, the Blue Jays are solid and downright impressive offensively. 

The fans north of the border celebrate while the fans in South Florida cry into their cups.  I’m happy for Toronto fans but Miami fans, in their sparkling new stadium they are paying for, do have my sympathies.

Chiefs Should Clean House Right Now

I am not a big fan of firing coaches that have been in their current position for less than two years.  I think under normal circumstances, coaches need at least that much time to put their own stamp on their team.  Occasionally though, a situation arises where an organization should extricate itself from a bad decision as soon as it becomes obvious that a coach is a wrong fit.  The Kansas City Chiefs are at that point right now.

Romeo Crennel should never have been named head coach in the first place.  After Todd Haley was deservedly axed a little less than a year ago, Romeo was named the interim coach, then the Chiefs turned things around a little bit and won two of their last three games, including the season finale at Denver.  Everyone had the warm and fuzzies for Romeo.  In a very predictable move, Kansas City removed the interim title and bestowed a more permanent one.  There is a chance that no other name coach even wanted the job.  We found out the general perspective of things in KC when Peyton Manning refused to even visit this past off season. 

So yes, now is the time to right that wrong and show Mr. Crennel the door.  Thank you, sir.  You are a nice guy and a decent coordinator but you are no head coach.  This leads me to my point.  The Chiefs should just start cleaning house right now.

Firing Crennel should be the first move, followed immediately by the firing of General Manager Scot Pioli.  Todd Haley and Crennel were both Pioli’s hires and they have been disasters for this franchise.  Pioli has also done a poor job drafting, retaining, and acquiring the necessary players to provide this team the depth of talent to survive a physically grueling schedule.  Most of all, Pioli should be fired for his perennially blindness in the matter of Matt Cassel.

Matt Cassel is a tough guy.  He works hard.  He gives it his all.  Whatever cliché you want to insert for a scrappy, talentless player can be inserted here. The fact is, he is no better than a good back-up.  If you need a guy to step in for a few games when your starting QB gets knocked out (not Brady Quinn), Matt Cassel would be a great option.  However, it is obvious to everyone with even an iota of football knowledge that Cassel is not a championship caliber quarterback in the NFL.

Pioli has also proved that the vaunted “Patriot Way” works a lot better if you have Tom Brady as your quarterback and Bill Belichick as your coach.  Matt Cassel, Todd Haley, and Romeo Crennel are not even close.  It is easy to look good when Tom Brady is the face of your organization.  Forget the “Patriot Way.”  Let’s just move on.  Now!

If I were Clark Hunt, I would call Bill Cowher today.  Offer him the GM and the head coaching positions.  Ask him what his number is.  How big of a check do you need to take over this franchise, Mr. Cowher?  If he says not for all the gold in Fort Knox, so be it.  Go to the next guy.  If you have to bring Marty Schottenheimer in to run the asylum on an interim basis so you have time to find the right people not named Cowher to run your franchise – do it.  It is time to break out the wrecking ball and pulverize this thing. 

The Chiefs were picked by most of the talking heads to challenge for the AFC West in 2012.  Even now, those talking heads, local and national, are befuddled because this team should have several more wins.  There is talent on this team.  The depth just isn’t all that great.  The lack of wins falls on Crennel’s shoulders and the lack of depth falls on Pioli’s head.  He learned nothing from last season and went to battle with basically the same guys.  The fact that Ryan Lilja, a fine left guard, has been the center (a position he has never played) for the past several games and can’t get the ball to the QB on a regular basis, is a problem.  GET A CENTER IN HERE.  Find one somewhere.  Pioli cannot do his job.  Find someone who can. 

The time is now to make these changes.  There is no point in waiting.  Chief fans have suffered through this present, incompetent regime long enough.  Pioli has had his chances and failed he has miserably.  Today is the day to start anew. 

I would like to thank all of my loyal readers and followers.  Between my two blog sits, jawssportsandstuff.blogspot.com and jawsrecliner.blogspot.com, I have passed the 5000 viewer mark in less than 20 months.  While not every hit is a loyal reader, I know many of you out there read my stuff on a regular basis and I appreciate your support.  Thanks for reading.