Who's Closing in KC

Hot on the heels of the news that the Kansas City Royals have lost catcher Salvador Perez for three months, the Royals and their ever hopeful fans were battered by more bad news.  Stalwart closer Joakim Soria hurt his elbow and is apparently is heading toward his second Tommy John surgery.  Soria is owed $6 million this year and the Royals hold an $8 million option for 2013.  It is almost certain the Royals won’t take that option and we as fans must gird ourselves to the possibility that Soria has thrown his last pitch as a Royal.

From 2007-2010, Joakim Soria was as good a closer as baseball had to offer.  He accumulated 132 saves in those four seasons against only 13 blown saves for some pretty awful teams.  He had 281 strikeouts to only 70 walks, a 4:1 ratio.  He was dependable and terrific and fun to watch.  According to Jeff Zimmerman at royalsreview.com, Soria threw his devastating curveball approximately 14% of the time in 2007-2009, but only 7% of the time over the past two years.  The curve ball was his strikeout pitch and if he was unable to throw it, that would explain much of his troubles last season.  Zimmerman postulates this very theme in his article.  Early last season, Soria struggled mightily through May, and it really was the first extended period of ineffectiveness we had seen from him in his Royals career.  Even though he bounced back and regained some of his swagger, he never really looked the same.  He wasn’t putting hitters away as easily has he had in the past.  As fans, we speculated all season as to whether or not something was wrong.  Soria, right up until after his appearance this last Sunday in Arizona, claimed nothing was wrong with his arm.  It is hard to accept that but we have no other choice, do we?

Many people wanted the Royals to trade Soria before the 2011 season.  I was never a proponent of this tactic but I understood the argument.  People who counseled in favor of trade asked what good was it to have a premium closer on a terrible team.  My thought was always that Soria was very popular with the fans and it is hard to measure the value in that.  People would actually go to the ball park in hope of seeing that knee buckling curve.  They would buy #48 jerseys; they would cheer throatily.  Plus, there was never any guarantee that the Royals could get fair value in return.  Yes, he was at the peak of his value that off season but for me, I can’t look back now and blame the Royals for not moving him. 

So, where do the Royals go from here?  If Kansas City has one area of quality depth ready for big league action, it is the bullpen.  My best guess is that Greg Holland will get the first shot at the closer’s role.  Holland was brilliant last season, maintaining 1.80 ERA and .9333 WHIP.  He struck out over 11 per 9 innings and only walked 19 in 60 innings.  He was confident and consistent all season.  If Holland would falter or struggle in April and May, the Royals have Jonathan Broxton, who from 2006-2009 was one of the most dominating closer in the game.  Injuries have derailed his career over the past couple of seasons but Kansas City took a chance he can regain his form.  So far this spring, he has pitch 3 innings with an ERA 3.00.  The Royals are taking it slow with him, allowing him some time to knock off some rust.  What is encouraging sign is that his velocity on his fastball is in the mid 90’s and he feels fine up to this point.  Regardless of who sets up and who closes, Holland and a healthy Broxton could be a dominating combo at the end of ball games. 

Soria’s injury could also open up a spot on the roster for the diminutive but effective The 5’10”, 190 lb. (on a good day) Kelvin Herrera has thrown 7 innings this spring with a 1.29 ERA and 10 strikeouts.  Herrera could slide into that 7^th inning spot Ned Yost likes to use.  If not Herrera, I think Aaron Crow stays in the bullpen and gains an even more important role than he had 2011. 

The Royals can actually afford to take this hit to the backend of their bullpen.  There have been many years when they could not.  Greg Holland or a healthy Jonathan Broxton will mostly likely be more effective than an unhealthy Joakim Soria anyway.  As a fan of the Royals, and of Soria, I am sad to see Joakim go down.  On the financial side of things, the Royals can plan ahead and use the $8 million they would have paid Soria in 2013 to sign Alex Gordon or Eric Hosmer.  Even if (when), the Royals opt out of that 2013 contract year, maybe Soria can come back healthy next season and maybe he will resign with the Royals at a discount.  Who knows?  I just know I am going to miss Soria in the powder blue.

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The Tourney's Black Eye

I love the NCAA Tournament.  The first weekend of the tourney is the greatest made-for-television events in all of sports. (If you need proof that it is a creature of television, watch for all of the empty seats in most of the venues.)  CBS has done nothing but perfect its product with its four network format.  I have basically spent 12 hours over each of the past two days buried in my recliner with little or no respite.  My wife is now boycotting the living room due to the smell. 

I think you get the picture – I love college basketball and I love this tournament.  I am willing to live with extra long commercial breaks and half times (being able to switch to another channel for more action certainly helps).  I am willing to put up with commentators and analysts who are ill prepared and are not familiar with the college game.  What I am not willing to tolerate is the underwhelming, atrocious performances by a large number of the games’ officials.

I have played sports my whole life and for much of my younger years I was an official basher.  As a player, I had little patience for the ineptitude of poor officiating or umpiring.   A funny thing happened along the way.  For four years in the late 1990’s, I became a part time referee and umpire.  There is a tough learning curve and I came to appreciate the efforts of the people working the games.  As I gained more experience, my goal became to be unnoticed in any game I worked.  This may sound odd to some but if you have ever played sports, you know that if a referee or an umpire is doing a good job, then you don’t even notice them.  This does not mean never blowing your whistle.  It means you hustle, make the right calls at the right time, and be as fair as you possibly can.

The problem I am having with this tournament specifically, and with sports in general, is that officials are becoming too noticeable.  They seem to be grabbing the spotlight more and more.  (This is becoming a giant issue in major league baseball as well.)  There have been two games where the officials have had a major hand in the outcomes of the games.  (UNC Asheville/Syracuse and Xavier/Notre Dame)  It is hard to say the officials won or lost a game for any team but they certainly prevented a few teams from having a fair opportunity to win some games.

During my 24 hours of basketball gluttony, I have seen a plethora of horrible officiating.  I have seen late whistles, blown calls on obvious plays, calls made by the wrong official, calls made by officials not in the correct position to make the correct calls, missed basket interferences, players pummeled without penalty, players called for breathing too hard on an opponent, and making rulings on obscure rules that I have never seen called before in games.  Twice, I have seen players just simply fall down and their defenders drew whistles.  Not only have the officials seemed intent on taking the games out of the players’ control, but they have made the wrong calls over and over. 

As an official, the block/charge call was absolutely the hardest call to make.  There is so much to watch for and it happens so fast, it is very hard to be sure you are making the right call.  I cannot tell you though how many of these calls I have seen over the past 2 days.  I bet that the officials have gotten the call wrong 75% of the time.  I was a huge proponent of adding the arc under the basket.  I thought is would help the officials get this call right.  I was wrong.  It has actually hurt the game.  Officials are so busy looking at the feet, they miss the big picture.  Basically, they see if the feet are in or out of the arc and make their call based on that, regardless of what else might be happening.  As someone who has played, officiated, and watched thousands of games, I would estimate that about 60% of the time, this call should be a block.  The officials have called the overwhelming majority of these calls around the basket as charges.  There have been two I can remember they call blocks, and replays showed both should have been charges.  They just can’t get it right.

I am also tired of everyone just sweeping the problem under the rug.  Game announcers avoid commenting on the mistakes of officials like it will result in their beheading.  They just nod and agree with every call.  Unless it is Charles Barkley, the analysts are not calling out these officials.  I am tired of the argument that officials are just like players and they make mistakes.  While it is true to an extent, players are 20 year old kids and officials are mature, paid professionals.  The players are held responsible for their mistakes while officials have people make excuses for their errors and the television crews work hard to cover up any incompetence with officials. 

Officials in any game in any sports should not be part of the story but this is becoming more and more the case as officials seem to want their share of the bright spotlight.  If I could relay a message to the officials it would be to tell them to just do their job, do it better, and let the players decide the games.  Make the right calls at the right time and no one will even notice you.  That should be the goal of every official.

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Tourney Chances for the Jayhawks

Trying to predict the outcome of the annual March Madness extravaganza is never an easy thing.  As parity becomes more prevalent in college basketball (some would argue that it is mediocrity, not parity), the excitement of the tournament has never been higher.  Tuesday night’s play-in games were absolutely thrilling, with one team trailing by 16 points with less than 5 minutes to go, then charging back for the win, and in the other game, one team scored 55 points in the first fifteen minutes, building a 25 point lead, but only scoring 17 points the rest of the way to lose in the end.  What a way to start the tournament!

The Kansas Jayhawks have, in my opinion, overachieved all season.  They ran out basically 5 BCS caliber players and still won the Big XII.  It did not hurt my feelings at all to see them fall early in the conference tournament and then to not have to play until late Friday evening.  This team appeared tired and beat up toward the end of the season and the extra rest certainly will do them no harm.  Yes, it would have been awesome to enjoy yet another KU/MU tilt but I think not having to play a relatively meaningless game against a tough opponent may help KU in the end.

After taking in all the brackets, I did not feel KU got the shaft in their brackets like I usually do.  In fact, after pouring over all of the regions, not one team really jumped out at me as having an overwhelming hard or easy path to the Final Four.  It seems to me that just about every match-up has its risks for the higher seeds.  There just isn’t that much difference in teams this season.  When you have a #15 seed Detroit with more McDonald’s All Americans on its team than #2 seed Kansas, that should tell you all you need to know about the state of college basketball.

I can honestly see KU possibly going down in every round.  Detroit is no slouch and neither St. May’s nor Purdue are pushovers.  KU beat Georgetown earlier in the season but both teams are significantly better than they were.  The Hoyas are a deep, young, athletic team that will be a hard match-up for the Jayhawks.  I assume that either North Carolina or Michigan will make it to the Elite Eight, although there are obviously no guarantees of that either.  If so, KU could beat either team in a scrap.  Of course, they could take a beating from either team, too. 

KU has a recent history of exiting the tournament too early, and with stronger teams than this one.  On the flip side, we as KU fans certainly know how far one player of the year candidate can carry a team.  Kansas has two outstanding players in Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor who will bad match-ups for just about any team.  Throw in a true, shot blocking 7-footer, and a couple of capable, tough defenders, KU’s starting five is as good as any in the nation.  The problem is an achingly thin bench.  If KU gets into any early foul trouble with the top 2 or three players, the lights will dim quickly on the Jayhawks’ hope. 

With all of these things taken into consideration, I think the Jayhawks will make it into the Elite Eight at least.  It would not surprise me at all if the exit earlier than that, and I will be thrilled if they make it to yet another Final Four.  A NC/KU battle for that Final Four spot could be epic.  Ole Roy wouldn’t like it much but as fans, it would be terrific.  If KU could scrap their way into the Final Four, anything could happen.  I think KU is one of eight to twelve teams that have the firepower to win it all. 

Of course, my dream final match-up would be the Kansas Jayhawks versus the Missouri Tigers.  How great would it be to defeat the Tigers in the final game and send them off to the SEC with their tail tucked firmly between their legs.  On the other hand, that match-up would also be my worst nightmare match-up.  Nothing would be worse than for the Tigers to end our great, historic rivalry by beating KU in the National Championship game.  Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, though.  KU has to come out every game and play every minute.  They have a tendency to come out flat, either to begin the game, or out of the locker room after halftime.  This cannot happen in the tourney or they will be done.  They must stay focused, healthy, and out of foul trouble of they want a chance for that Elite Eight.

As I ready for this phenomenally awesome sporting event, I know I will be bitterly disappointed with anything less than an Elite Eight and absolutely thrilled with anything more.  As always, I will cheer my team on as long as they are alive and I will complain initially upon their ouster.  Regardless, I love my team and would never want to follow any other in the country.

Rock Chalk, Jayhawk.  Go KU!!!

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KC's Eternally Springing Hope

At one point, the Kansas City Royals was baseball’s model expansion franchise.  They won their first division title in their eighth year in 1976.  From 1976-1981, the Royals won 5 divisional titles in six years (in the strike split 1981 season, KC won one half of the season and the A’s won the other half – the A’s won a divisional playoff series).  The Royals played in their first World Series in 1980, their 12^th season, and won in 1985.  From 1976-1985, Kansas City was one of the winningest teams in baseball.

There is a perception that the Royals have been terrible since 1985.  That’s not quite true.  From 1986-1994, Kansas City finished over .500 in 6 of those nine seasons, never winning fewer than 72 games.  Since 1995 however, the Royals have been one of the worst franchises in baseball, only finishing above .500 one time (2003).  This time period coincides directly with the time frame in which the Glass family took over the franchise.  They have treated it like their own personal giant, box, discount, retail outlet.  They throw a shoddy product out for consumption and laugh all the way to the bank.  I will never be convinced the Glass family has ever lost so much as a penny on the Kansas City Royals.

In 2006, the Glasses finally did something right.  They hired the hot commodity general manager candidate, Dayton Moore.  Moore was a childhood Royals fan and cut his teeth in the Braves organization.  Moore took the job with the caveat that he would get extended funds to correctly develop and build success from within.  The Royals increased the scouting development and budget and expanded their almost non-existent presence in Latin America.  Money was freed up for draft picks.  The foundation was finally being laid. 

It has been a painful process because, as the minor leagues have set a strong foundation, the structure at the top has been a flimsy, straw shack.  As successful as Moore has been in building up the minor league system, the product he has fielded on the major league level has not been good.  He tried to get things done by bringing in Gil Meche (who was a good signing until Trey Hillman destroyed his arm) and he brought in the only run producer Moore could convince (bribe) to sign in KC, Jose Guillen.  Guillen actually produced some much needed power in his 2-plus seasons but he carried so much baggage, it was hardly noticeable.  Moore also made some inexplicable trades to acquire Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs, and had some head scratching signings like Scott Podsednik and Jason Kendall.  None of these grasped straws worked out.

Finally, the 2011 season arrives.  Moore went out on a limb again and pulled Jeff Franceour and Melky Cabrera off the scrap heap.  Each showed why they had been top prospects earlier in their careers, producing good numbers all season.  Alex Gordon looked to have finally lived up to his promise.  Billy Butler, after a somewhat slow first half, recovered to be his steady self.  Best of all, we finally started to see some of the fruits of the vaunted “Process”.  Some of the top prospects from their highly praised minor league system began to make their way to Kansas City.  Several pitchers, namely Aaron Crow, Greg Holland, Louis Coleman, Danny Duffy, and Tim Collins appeared early and all made some sort of splash.  Top hitters Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakus made the jump.  Salvador Perez and Johnny Giavotella join in.  This is a huge infusion of youth.  Not all of these kids were successful right away.  Moustakus and Giavotella both struggled, although Moose hit very well over the last six weeks.  Duffy struggled with his control nearly every outing.  All showed hints of great promise but when this many kids make their debut in one season, failure and growing pains are part of the deal.

So what does this mean for the 2012 campaign?  In my opinion, the Royals failed to improve their rotation enough to challenge the Tigers.  It is not realistic to expect every one of those rookies from 2011 to take a big step forward.  There are still going to be some serious growing pains.  My guess is that this team will be extremely streaky throughout the year as these young players grow and adjust. 

Those things aside, I think the AL Central is going to be weak this season.  Other than the Tigers, the other four teams are in some degree of rebuilding.  I like what the Royals are doing the most.  I like their young players better than any other teams’.  Of course, I am a serious “homer”.  I can see this club approaching 80 wins, which is probably good for second place.  It is also possible for everything to fall apart because this is after all, the Royals. Twenty-five years of failure can drain optimism out of a person.

The funny thing is, I think the Royals are going to approach .500.  I think there will be more good than bad from these young fellows.  The fact that over 60 players were in Surprise, Arizona working out, hitting, fielding, and throwing three weeks early is a really positive thing.  These young Royals are actually used to winning.  In each of the past four seasons, the Royals have had the team with the highest winning percentage in all of the minor leagues in their organization.  These young Turks have come up through the system together, winning games.  No one has ever been able to prove the value of chemistry on winning baseball games but I can’t think it hurts.  This team has great camaraderie.  They know each; they get along; the have fun together.  They are hungry to give us long suffering Royals fans something to cheer about.  I am going to watch this bunch and I have every confidence that, despite growing pains, this team is going to win some games.  They are going to be fun to watch.  They are going to give us some reason to actually believe success for our team is getting very close.  If we get some miracle growth and development from the rotation, maybe the Royals can be the talk of baseball in September.  Maybe it is safe to dream once again…

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