Santa Self

Santa Self has delivered us another great gift this year.  Despite losing two top players from a National Champion finalist team last year in Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor, Santa Self has wrapped up a team heavy with seniors and freshmen that continues to get stronger.  A big win on road in Columbus, Ohio last Saturday was a holiday treat for us all.

This 2012-2013 college basketball season is proving to be a weak one, not only nationally, but in the Big XII as well.  Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News has the Big XII ranked 8^th among conferences, behind such power leagues as the Mountain West, Atlantic 10, Pac-12, and the round ball challenged SEC.  It wasn’t too long ago that the Big XII had moved up into the top two or three basketball conferences.  Missouri jumping to the SEC certainly didn’t help.  Even though the Tigers have the 146^th ranked strength of schedule (Rivals.com’s RPI Ratings), they are 10-1 and would probably be Kansas’ biggest challengers this season if they had stayed put.  Missouri and Texas A&M were replaced by a horrible basketball school in TCU (only scored 31 in a game this season and have scored less than 50 in several others) and a very disappointing West Virginia, 6-5, 111 RPI).  The conference only has three teams in the RPI top 40 – Kansas (2), Oklahoma St. (20), and Oklahoma (25).  Only three teams have played a schedule ranked in the top 60 – Kansas (3), OU (13), and Baylor (26).  Three teams have schedules ranked lower than 200 – Kansas St. (215), TCU (283), and Texas Tech (298).  I have long believed that many of the Big XII schools historically don’t schedule a tough enough slate.  KU and Texas usually are the only teams that play stronger teams on a regular basis. 

Be that as it may, Kansas is ranked 7^th in the AP and 2^nd in the RPI with the 3^rd toughest schedule in the country.  I think Santa Self has done a great job of picking some of the strongest mid-major teams year in and year out to play.  I think that is why his strength of schedule is so high.  Throw in teams like Colorado and Temple, on top of the likes of Michigan State and Ohio State, and he has a competitive schedule against several good to decent teams Kansas should beat. 

Santa Self also does a terrific job being patient with his teams.  He lets them grow as players throughout the pre-conference schedule.  His teams generally make a leap forward about this time of year as he has much more practice time between semesters to put in more plays.  Kansas usually hits their stride come the conference part of the schedule.  Barring something disastrous, Kansas should stroll away through the Big XII this season and win their 9^th straight conference title.  That would be an amazing accomplishment.

One of the things Santa Self does best is to reload each year.  Year after year, KU loses a big chunk of their points, rebounds, assists, and minutes to graduation (it should also be noted that Santa Self's players graduate at a very high rate) or the NBA.  Several higher echelon schools go through this.  It also seems that Santa Self has something left in his stocking for the next season, even when it doesn’t always appear that he does.  This year, he was left with four seniors, three of whom started in the National Championship game last April. 

After KU beat Richmond a couple of weeks ago, Chris Mooney, the Spiders’ coach, said he was surprised when he started watching film on the Jayhawks.  He couldn’t believe a school on the level of Kansas would have four senior starters.  In this day and age of one and done players, the top tier teams are often hit the worst by this.  One of the CBS announcers on Saturday, I think it was Greg Anthony, also mentioned the anomaly of a school like Kansas having four seniors during the Ohio State telecast.  Santa Self does a terrific job of getting a lot of his players that are not one and done talent to stay the course and convinces them that they can be major contributors down the road.  He does it year after year.  Players who don’t play much as freshmen or sophomores end up playing huge roles on very good teams by the time they are juniors and seniors.  Santa Self and his staff are obviously coaching these kids up, even when they are not playing a lot of minutes in games.  It always seems to pay off.

This team has the four seniors, one sophomore with significant playing time in Nadir Tharpe, and the other five guys who get to play in varying degrees are freshmen (not counting the walk-ons or junior Justin Wesley).  The four seniors are not the most talented or athletic players in the country but they all do many things very well.  They all bring something important to the table.  They have all been role players in the past but are now the leaders.  They all know what Santa Self requires of them and they work together to win games.  Talking heads always go on about how important senior leadership is come NCAA tournament time.  That theory will be tested in March as Kansas tries for back to back Final Fours. 

Kansas can look very good (Colorado, Belmont, Richmond) but they are happy to win ugly too (Chattanooga, Ohio State).  The ugly wins don’t count less than the pretty ones.  Kansas has a very good chance, because of their strong non-conference schedule and an apparently weaker than usual Big XII, to mount a pretty big win total by tournament time.  Unless something unforeseen happens (never want to count chickens before they hatch), Kansas should be in a prime position to garner a #1 seed, and no lower than a #2 seed.  With senior leadership, it would a great gift to the fans for the Jayhawks to return to the Final Four and maybe even the Finals.  Santa Self has delivered before; he can do it again.  Check your list Santa Self; we have been very good this year!

I hope everyone has a safe and happy holiday season!

Get TV and movie reviews at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and follow me on twitter @jawrecliner.  Thanks for reading.

Chiefs Ineptitude

I have been prepared to write this for a few weeks now but other things have pushed it to the back burner.  I am just going to knock this out and be done with the Chiefs for a couple of months.  This team has frustrated me to no end and I am ready for their season to be over.

The negatives on this team are seemingly infinite but there are four components that are the root cause to all else.  The first is ownership.  Long time legendary owner Lamar Hunt died in December, 2006.  In the six seasons since, Kansas City has won 4, 2, 4, 10, 7, and 2 games for a total of 29 wins against 65 losses (this doesn’t count the two more that are coming to end this season).  Clark Hunt has just run this franchise into the ground.  Even so, this organization has been going the wrong way for quite a while now.  The Chiefs only have four winning records in the last 15 seasons.  In that time, they have a record of 105-133 (44%).  They have won more than 9 only three times and more than 10 just once in the last decade and a half.  And there have been zero playoff wins.  While the Chiefs weren’t tearing up the league in Lamar Hunt’s final years, it is much worse now with the team only winning 31% of their games since his passing.  That is flat out not acceptable, especially when the team is reportedly well under the salary cap.  Where is that extra money going???

I think we can all agree Scot Pioli has been a total and utter failure ass the General Manager of the Chiefs.  I admit to being excited when he was hired but he hitched his horse to Matt Cassel as his guy at quarterback, his new Tom Brady.  The “Patriot Way” certainly works better if you have the real Tom Brady.  Pioli’s biggest failings stem from Cassel not being even close to Brady in talent and Pioli’s lack of admission of this simple fact.  Pioli has also failed twice in hiring head coaches. 

Pioli has also been a horrible talent evaluator and has not build up good NFL-talent level back-ups.  Injuries have crushed his teams.  Injuries are part of the game and that is why depth is so important.  The guys backing up the starters in a lot of the positions are not good players.  I am still befuddled by the fact KC entered the season with no one with experience at center on the roster to back up Rodney Hudson.  Ryan Lilja, who had never played center in the NFL has had to play center for most of the season.  He has struggled mightily at times just getting the ball snapped in a timely and accurate fashion.  I don’t blame him.  He was set up to fail.  As I watched the corps of wide receivers the Chiefs ran out onto the field against the Raiders, I am convinced Pioli isn’t even trying.  His eschewing Brandon Carr in the off season and offering a big contract to Stanford Routt, who couldn’t even last the season with this lackluster team, is proof enough of Pioli’s incompetence.  Of course, this is just highlighted by the quarterback position.

The next complete failure of this team is the Head Coach and his staff.  I know this stems from Pioli’s failure but these guys look like they have just given up.  The team doesn’t look disciplined or well drilled.  The offensive and defensive game plans look vanilla and uninspired.  This whole mess with Steve Breaston is just plain ridiculous.  He is by far the most accomplished wide receiver on the roster with Bowe hurt.  The fact he has not been active the last several weeks is just mind blowing.  Also, I have been disappointed in the lack of improvement from the defensive backs as a unit and individually.  I think we can all agree it is time for Crennel and his whole staff just to disappear, the sooner the better. 

Finally, the quarterback position has been awful.  I think Cassel and Brady Quinn would be serviceable back-ups but they are obviously not starting NFL quarterbacks.  You can’t really blame the players.  I think both of these guys are gutsy, tough guys who want to succeed but just aren’t starting caliber signal callers.  The fact that Pioli/Haley/Crennel couldn’t recognize this fact is why their teams have been so terrible.  There hasn’t even been an effort to upgrade the position in the present GM regime.  Every single person who knows anything about the game of football knows that it is very difficult to win consistently without good play from the quarterback position.  Teams have to always be thinking of the future of that position for their organization and the Chiefs just haven’t done that.

That is enough of the negative.  Those topics have been covered pretty well.  Heck, I called for Pioli and Crennel to be fired after the first loss to Oakland weeks ago.  It is only fair to mention some positives.  There have been a handful of good performances from this squad.

Derrick Johnson, Jamaal Charles, and Justin Houston all played very well.  These three guys have shown heart and toughness throughout the season.  I think rookie offensive linemen Jeff Allen and Donald Stephenson appear to be legitimate NFL linemen.  They have had games in which they haven’t looked good but I see enough from them to feel good they can be part of the future.  I also saw some things from Dontari Poe that indicates he can develop into a good starting defensive tackle.  He seldom gets enough push to disrupt the pocket and needs to do a better job clogging the middle on runs but he has improved as the season has progress and with more experience, one can certainly see he could end up being very good.  Late in the season, I even saw some improvement from Tyson Jackson – finally.  It is probably too little, too late but it was nice to at last see him make some plays on the field.    I think the defensive line is unquestioningly better than it was a year ago but still has a long way to go to be a solid unit.

That’s about it.  I can’t think of a single position other than those above in which I wasn’t disappointed.  Lack of improvement or plain lack of talent seemed to be the theme under the present regime.  What is sad for Chiefs fans is that is going to take time to right this ship.  It really bugs me that Kansas City stills employs Pioli and Crennel.  Hunt needs to be proactive and just let these guys go.  The longer he delays, the more he alienates fans.  The fans of this once proud franchise deserve better and they deserve it sooner rather than later.  Hunt needs to fire these guys and shoot for the moon with his next hire and that person needs to shoot for the moon when hiring a new head coach.  It has been a long season, a long six years, and it has stretched into a long 15 years.  It is time for Clark Hunt to give a little back to the city of Kansas City and give us a winner.

Catch movie and TV reviews at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com  and follow me on twitter @jawsrecliner.  Thanks for reading.

Royals Pull Trigger for Shields

I had a big Chiefs’ piece ready to go this morning but I woke up to find Royals’ news tearing up the world wide web and the radio airwaves.  After quivering in the bushes for weeks, afraid to make a big move, General Manager Dayton Moore finally went for it.  The Royals traded 4 minor leaguers to Tampa for  “Big Game” James Shields and Wade Davis.  Of course, two of the minor leagues were top prospect Wil Myers and the Royals’ top pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi.   This is where the argument comes in.

Kansas City just traded six plus years of control of a guy that hit 37 home runs in the minors in 2012 AND their top minor league pitcher with 6 years of control for two years of James Shields (committing $25 million) and five years of Wade Davis.  For an organization starved for future stars, that will be a bitter pill to swallow.  I get it.  I did not want the Royals to trade Wil Myers.  I am not sure adding Shields and Davis will win more games than having Franceour still in right field every day.  If Myers turns into a star and the Royals do not make the playoffs in the next two years, this trade will have been a disaster – in hindsight.  It is not a disaster right this minute.  

Wil Myers has a chance to be a superstar.  Few argue that point but we don’t know that for sure.  Phil Hyatt once hit 44 home runs in the minors for the Royals.  Phil Who Now?  Exactly.  With prospects, you just don’t know.  Not every prospect is Mike Trout.  Even if Myers turns into a star, the odds are against him contributing in a major way in his first two years.  BaseballHQ.com did a great 4-part series on the MLB success of players who made the top 100 prospect lists at some point.  To summarize, the rate wasn’t good.  That doesn’t mean Myers is going to fail; top 10 prospects fair better than those outside the top 10.  My guess he will be at least an above average MLB player, and possibly better than that but maybe not until year three.  That is pure speculation on my part.  Odorizzi has question marks, too.  He struggled in AAA to pitch deep into games and that would be a big problem at the major league level.  The Royals already have plenty of pitchers in that mold.  At the very least, Davis is on the same talent level as Odorizzi but much farther along in his development.  Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard were throw-ins here and while I don’t know much about the latter other than he is a power hitting third baseman nowhere near ready for the majors, the former is obviously in need of a scenery change.  I wish them good luck in their new organization.  

James Shields is the type of pitcher the Royals desperately need - a staff anchor who takes the ball every five days and pitches a lot of innings at a good level.   BaseballHQ.com took statistical data and came up with a list of staff anchors for the 2013 season, based on performances over the past two years.  Only 8 pitchers met their criteria.  One of them was James Shields.  A guy like Shields, in addition to Guthrie and Santana, should take the pressure off the bullpen.  The bullpen has been great but just how long can it succeed working as hard as it has the last two seasons?  This team is much stronger today than it was yesterday.  Wade Davis could be very important because he is probably better than Chen, Mendoza, and Hochevar and should move right into the number four slot.  Now all those #5 pitchers will be slotted where they belong.  Now maybe Moore can trade one of those guys for some outfield help (don’t expect much in return, though).  This also relieves any pressure there might be to rush Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino back too quickly.  These two important guys will have time to build up to their full strength and if things play out right, maybe they are ready to contribute to meaningful games in September and October (I’ve always been the optimist).

I know we all love the possibility of Wil Myers.  I know I do.  The fans of this team want heroes and Myers looks like he could have been a big one but this team is loaded with possible contenders.  Billy Butler can still hit.  Alex Gordon is still an above average, under appreciated player.  Hosmer and Moustakus are still very young, developing players.  Escobar and Perez are still among the best at their positions.  If these young players don’t improve and take the next step forward, it won’t matter how good James Shields, or how good Wil Myers may be.  If there isn’t an improvement in the hitting among the youngsters, the Royals are not going to compete anyway.  Now, if these guys all do take that step forward, I like the Royals’ chances with James Shields on the mound.  

Shields comes with risks (he throws a lot of innings and has shown inconsistency in the past) but there isn’t a pitcher out there who doesn’t come with a fair share baggage and risk.  There is always a chance something goes wrong (Kansas City has had more than its share of bad luck over the decades) but I am going to be positive and look at the fact the Royals got a top of the rotation arm and a solid number 4 starter with upside.

Let’s dream a little here.  What if the Royals’ young guys take big steps toward reaching their potential?  What if Guthrie pitches like he did with KC last year?  What if Santana throws up numbers like 2011?  What if Shields has opportunities to earn his nickname in powder blue?  This is a lot of “what ifs” but I am going to choose to be optimistic and positive going into 2013.  I love the feeling of hope going into each Spring Training.

I wrote just a few days ago that Dayton Moore wasn’t getting anything done and I put owner David Glass’ feet to the fire about pinching pennies.  It would be terribly hypocritical of me to berate them for going out and getting a couple of good starting pitchers, including a top of the rotation guy, for a bunch of minor leaguers.  You have to give up something to get something.  Royals made the move they needed to make and now have a chance to compete in the AL Central.  Maybe the Royals become that small market team in 2013 that challenges for the division title like Oakland and Baltimore last year.  Maybe now it is our time.

Moore and Glass are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.  Fans are just not going to be happy.  Well, this fan is much happier today than he was four days ago; I can assure you of that.  They pulled the trigger and only time will tell if it will work successfully.  Only in hindsight will we be able to judge the success of this move but this morning, I am glad to be a Royals’ fan.

Be sure to watch ESPN’s 30 for 30 “You Don’t Know Bo”.  It is outstanding.

Check out my movie and television reviews at jawsrecliner.com and get twitter updates for my blogs @jawsrecliner.  Thanks for reading. 

An Empty Glass

I was all prepared to write up an article about how the Kansas City Royals made out at the MLB Winter Meetings in Nashville this week.  I was ready to praise Dayton Moore for pulling off exactly the right move and I was equally prepared to blast the sometimes panicky General Manager for giving up too much for too little.  This article is going to unfold much differently than I had planned.

Let me start off with saying it was really nice to actually be in the discussions during the Hot Stove season.  Year after year, I watch the pinnacle of the Hot Stove season with interest only as a fan in general.  The Royals seldom participate in this annual extravaganza in any tangible manner.   Not so this year as rumor after rumor shot through the world wide web, keeping me checking my twitter page for days.  The rumor mill had been churning out possibilities for weeks leading up to the Winter Meetings and everyone knew the Royals were ready to make a big splash.  MLB Network and ESPN talking heads were all reporting that Kansas City was going to be a big player during these Winter Meetings because of their dearth of starting pitching and their perceived plethora of young bats, including the top hitting prospect in all of baseball.  

The biggest fear for me was that General Manager Dayton Moore would trade a key piece of a below average offense to fill a spot in a horrible rotation.  Worse, that he would trade a guy who could possibly hit 30+ homeruns for several years for the services of a good pitcher for just two years.  I am not saying there isn’t a situation where that might not be a good thing but it has to be the right deal.  I am tired of the Royals always promising they will be better next year.  I want them to win this year.  When is the vaunted Process going to pay dividends?

As it turned out, all those exciting rumors amounted to nothing.  Whispers in the wind, if you will.  Despite reassurances from all the talking heads, the Royals talked a big game but, as usual, didn’t deliver.  They didn’t even add anyone via the Rule 5 draft.  The Winter Meetings as a whole turned out rather uneventful, for the Royals specifically and most teams in general, other than maybe the Giants and Red Sox.

So yesterday, the post meeting hangover set in.  Dayton Moore was flying home and it didn’t look like there was going to be any excitement.  Then – BANG.  Bob Dutton from the Kansas City Star dropped a bomb on all of us die hard Royals’ fans.  A few weeks ago, Royals’ owner David Glass talked to certain media members and declared that basically the Royals can’t be profitable if their payroll is over $70 million dollars a year and that he had subsidized MLB payroll out of his own pocket several times over the years.  Every person who could type and post on the internet, some of them very respected baseball people, disclaimed this statement as a blatant falsehood.  Even Forbes magazine provided numbers much differently.

Instead of a soft cap of $70 million to work with, the Royals, according to Dutton’s article yesterday afternoon, provided by Royals’ officials, the Royals’ breakeven point was closer to $60 million because the $70 million included the 40-man roster, draft signings, and international signings, and that Kansas City was already over budget for its payroll for 2013.  Twitter blew up.  Radios exploded.  There was cyber chaos everywhere in the Kansas City Metro area.  David Glass, whom many already believed was lying before, now jumped up into Richard M. Nixon and Pinocchio levels in the pantheon of liars.  No one I read or listened to believed these numbers were anywhere near accurate.

Then the “Oops, my bad.”  Dutton retracted his article.  Some Royals official had given him the wrong data or something.  Whatever, but the number is still supposedly $70 million for the 35-man roster.  While everyone has recovered and calmed down, no one is buying that figure either.  Glass and other club officials claim he has not pocketed a dime from the Royals.  Forbes reported otherwise, claiming Glass has reaped profit to the tune of approximately $100 million since 2000.  That is a big disparity.  Let’s not forget that Glass bought the Royals for less than $100 million and it is now valued, according to Forbes, at more than $350 million.  I dare say, Mr. Glass, that is a tidy profit. 

With all the money that is pouring into the coffers via television contracts, which will increase dramatically in 2014, and other league generated shared revenues, plus the increased revenue from rising attendance, I can see no reason the Royals can’t have a payroll of around $90 million this year and $110 million in 2014.  Guys a lot smarter than I (check out ranyontheroyals.com for a very good financial breakdown for the Royals) have done the math and I can see nothing to dispute their numbers.  It is time, Mr. Glass, to piss or get the hell off the pot.  Help us field a winning team or sell it and take your quarter of a billion dollar profit and return to Arkansas.  

I wish there was a way we could see exactly what the numbers are.  I wish the teams that are playing in county or state funded stadiums had to provide financial statements to the public.  There needs to be a show of good faith.  Right now, there is no faith in David Glass as owner of the Kansas City Royals.  Few people believe his statements about the financial situation.  We as fans are tired of the constant losing and penny pinching.  Either loosen the purse strings or you may witness an empty, cavernous stadium this summer.  Well, you won’t witness it.  You’ll be safely tucked away in Arkansas or in your bigger-than-Rhode Island compound in Wyoming or Montana or wherever the heck it is, counting your money like King Midas.

Glass has never had an accurate reading of the pulse of the KC fans and he better have a thick skin if he doesn’t provide extra dollars this off season.  It is getting harder and harder to be a Royals fan.  I am tired of the heart break.  I love baseball and I love the Royals but I am close to giving up.  It’s up to you, Mr. Glass.  At least show us some effort.  I am begging you.

Check out my list of all-time favorite TV dramas at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com and thanks for reading.