Expectations for the 2011 Jayhawks

Other than the given variable of talent, two things really separate the big boys of the Big XII conference and the little guys.  To me, those things are overall speed and depth.  Schools like OU and Texas always seem to be playing so much faster than some of the other schools.  On top of awesome team speed, these schools seem to have five star players three deep at every position.  It is easy to overcome injuries or poor performances when another eager, talented, highly recruited player is waiting in the wings for his chance to shine.

Schools like KU are always trying to catch up to the speed of OU and Texas.  It is a tough row to hoe because speed does not necessarily translate directly into football talent.  One can assume that top ranked players with plus speed are going to have an opportunity to play at Texas, OU, and A&M.  I can’t help but think that KU, ISU, and even KSU and Baylor are getting the leftovers.  The bottom schools are getting the guys listed as athletes as opposed to by position.  This tells me these guys may be fast or athletically gifted but I am not sure if they are good football players.

Turner Gill, as does every coach overseeing every bottom dwelling team in every BCS conference, has been stressing the need to increase team speed.  I can’t disagree with that approach.  Last season, the Jayhawks seem to be running in slow motion at times.  They needed to improve speed and quickness at nearly every position.  By all the accounts I have read, KU has significantly increased their overall team speed.  Now, we will have to wait and see if these faster players can actually play football.  On the plus side, speed can’t be taught but football can be.  That’s why we have coaches.

As far as team depth, it looks like the Jayhawks will have good depth at only two positions – running back and linebacker.  I am hoping I am wrong about this but it is my impression of this team.  Regretfully, that is not enough depth to compete week in and week out in the Big XII.

Expectations for KU are not high.  Most publications and internet sites have them listed dead last.  Most of the college football pundits on the television and sports radio have them listed last.  It will be very difficult, but not impossible, to disappoint. 

With the new scheduling format of playing all conference schools, teams like the Jayhawks and Cyclones lose a non-conference cupcake and have to play all of the (formerly) south teams.  It is a very difficult task for schools trying to improve their position.  KU opens the season against McNeese St., a team that went 6-5 a year ago.  That should be a win but we all remember North Dakota State.  Then KU faces Northern Illinois.  Not a name school by any means but certainly not a pushover.  NIU went 10-3 in the MAC, with 2 of their losses coming to BCS schools.  Now, a lower level BCS schools should still beat a MAC team, especially at home, but NIU is not a cupcake,  The last non-conference match-up is at Georgia Tech and you can bet they want to avenge last year’s massive upset at Memorial Stadium.  KU will have to play well to win 2 of these games.  Does anyone see the Jayhawks beating 4 of the nine Big XII teams because I just can’t.  That is what it will take to make it to a bowl.  Everyone will be better off just to forget that pipe dream right now.

The Jayhawks will certainly be a better overall team than last season’s squad but I doubt it will show in their record.  I think anything more than 3 wins should be celebrated as a massive improvement.  If KU won more than three games, I would be thrilled.  I just want to see improvement in the overall play from game to game.  I want the Jayhawks to at least be in every game.  I don’t want to see any blowouts by halftime.  I would consider that progress.  I just don’t think KU has the depth to compete for a full game against the big boys every week. 

My biggest fears are with the offensive and defensive lines.  I just don’t think the Jayhawks have the size, speed, or depth on either side of the ball to control the line of scrimmage in order to compete in the Big XII.  I am also totally unimpressed with Jordan Webb at quarterback.  With little protection in front of him, I haven’t seen the accuracy or arm strength that he needs to be a top half signal caller in this league.  He can only hand off to James Sims and company so many times.

On the defensive side of the ledger, the linebacking core looks to have some speed and depth and the defensive backs are experienced.  I don’t know how KU is going to get enough consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  I am hoping the Jayhawks are faster from sideline to sideline and can pursue with success but in the pass happy Big XII, if they can’t pressure the quarterback, it will be a long season fro the Jayhawks. 

I am not without hope.  Every year, there is one team that surprises.  Maybe in 2011 it will be KU.  Maybe coach Turner and staff and coach these guys up and get them to believe enough to overcome the deficiencies.  Possible but not likely.  I hope KU can hang in some games and steal a couple of wins.  From all accounts, KU is going to try to run a lot and shorten the games as much as possible.  With the lack of pass protection I anticipate, that is probably a good game plan, if not the most exciting one.

Here is my prediction for the final standings in the Big XII conference:

1) OU

2) A&M

3) OSU

4) Texas

5) MU

6) Tech

7) Baylor

8) KSU

9) ISU

10) KU

I think it is possible for Texas to have a sub par season and maybe MU moving up a spot or two.  Positions 2-7 could very fluid as there doesn’t seem to be a ton of difference between these squads.  I would love to see the Jayhawks be the surprise team but I won’t hold my breath.

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NFL Preseason - Why Bother?

I know the answer to the question I pose in the title – money.  Money is the only reason anyone bothers with the seemingly endless NFL preseason.  Teams can charge full price for the crappiest examples of football possible.  I can’t imagine more than two are necessary but teams would lose the gate and concession receipts for one home game and one away game.  Money.

As a fan, I tell myself each year not to get drawn in.  I’m so anxious to see some football that I ignore that inner voice every year.  I get comfortable in my favorite recliner, put my feet up, and grab my remote.  Every year, after about five minutes, I’ve had enough and I berate myself for falling for it again.  That teams and networks can promote this ugly version of a great product is beyond me.  That anyone can watch more than a few minutes of it amazes me.  That anyone really cares about these games bewilders me.  I think you are getting the point.  The games are awful.

The league in general seems to approach the games, in normal, non-lockout years, in the same manner.  Game one – maybe the starters play for a series, maybe not.  Game two – the starters will get two to three series, just to find some rhythm (whatever).  Game three – the starters may play the first half, or at least close to it.  Game four – no starters and few second stringers are going to get more than a few snaps.  This last game is for those pretenders who will never get a chance when it counts.  We certainly don’t want anyone important to get it.

Because of the accelerated schedule due to the lockout this season, some teams have expanded the playing time for some of their regulars but it is not significant enough to make anyone care.  Some teams seem to be worse than others.  The Kansas City Chiefs never seem to put much effort into any preseason game and it has been even worse in the Pioli era.  I tend to watch the Royals and turn over to the Chiefs during commercials.  Even a couple minutes at a time can be painful.  Many teams, like the Chiefs, don’t like to show any part of their playbook.  Defenses don’t attack and offenses are just plain vanilla.  It makes for very boring football and that doesn’t even count having to watch a bunch of guys I will never hear from again run around the field, futilely trying to make an impression against the other team’s no-namers.

It’s all about money.  After the Chiefs’ preseason opener against Tampa Bay, in which KC lost 25-0 (and it wasn’t that even that interesting), I heard a season ticket holder blast the Chiefs the next day on talk radio.  He pays $118 a ticket for 4 tickets to see the Chiefs and he has to buy the preseason game at the same price in the season ticket package.  He was railing against the fact coach Todd Haley had mentioned the game was meaningless and didn’t count.  While this is true - the games don’t mean a thing – the team and the league shouldn’t charge full price for these exhibition games.  I could not have agreed with the caller more.  They don’t count.  They are meaningless.  If I’m at home, I can turn the channel.  Why charge full price for these preseason games on the season ticket package?  Simply answered – because they can.

Despite the fact they league just ended a PR nightmarish lockout, despite the fact the teams, players, and league make millions of dollars in an economy where people struggle to find jobs, despite the possibility there may be more games blacked out in 2011 than any previous year – despite all this, teams feel the need to line their coffers with just a bit more of their fans’ hard earned money by charging them full price for a shoddy product.  Businesses do not charge the same price for generic products as they do for name products.  Why does the NFL?  Because they can.

It is so unnecessary.  The teams don’t need to pound their season ticket holders.  They could sell their exhibition games at a discount.  They could reduce the number of worthless, painful to watch preseason games from 4 to 2.  They choose not to.  And I am not a proponent of an 18-game schedule either.  Just shrink the preseason a couple of games.  Start camp later or the season earlier.  How about starting the season a week earlier and give every team 2 off weeks? 

With the new CBA in place, nothing new will take place.  We as fans are just stuck with boring, worthless, football for a full month.  What a waste of time.  I am ready for some football but preseason just doesn’t cut it.  Settle in.  We still have two more weeks to go. 

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Is The Big XII Doomed?

A little over a year ago, the Big XII conference started down the path of eventual destruction with two schools abandoning the league.  Colorado defected to the Pac-12 and Nebraska left for the Big Ten, leaving the other ten schools scrambling for positions.  Each school started to look out for themselves, exploring avenues with other conferences in case an impasse could not be reached. 

Finally, a wary accord was reached.  Texas, the monetary behemoth that seemed to control the destinies of several schools, decided to stay put, with the understanding they could launch a Texas network and not to have share the proceeds.  The other schools, several with little choice at the time, agreed to the deal, even if most had to feel trepidation over the future.

What emerged was a compact league of ten schools.  It was agreed that in football and basketball, the north/south split would be eliminated.  All schools would play each other once in football and twice in basketball.  As a sports fan, this was a very appealing plan.  As a fan of the Kansas Jayhawks, I knew the school was going to struggle finding a foothold in football, but the round ball schedule was going to be fun.  KU would lose 4 games against historically weak competition in the Buffaloes and Cornhuskers and also 2  pre-conference cupcakes.  They would gain 6 games against the tough, rough-and-tumble south teams.  A conference that already enjoyed a top tiered RPI ranking would certainly vault permanently to the head of the class.  Things looked to be settling down and fans began to speculate on what two teams might be added eventually to get the conference back to full compliment.  It was fun to discuss this with friends or listen to the talking heads mull over the possibilities on the ever entertaining sports talk radio stations. 

The Big XII survived the 2010-2011 school year and said good bye to the exiting schools.  On the surface, things looked to be settling down.  Underneath the surface though, some schools weren’t as happy as was believed, namely Texas A&M.  Things came to a boiling point, it seems, when Texas announced some of the plans for their network.  A key point of contention was the Longhorn Network plan to televise high school games.  A&M rightfully complained that it would give the Longhorns an even bigger recruiting advantage.  I can’t say I disagree and neither did anyone else in the Big XII.  It has since been announced those plans have been put on hold.  That Texas even considered that idea to be above board shows their arrogance.

Texas A&M decided to be proactive.  They made it known they wanted out of the Big XII.  Their Board of Regents is obviously tired of playing second fiddle to the Longhorn juggernaut.  Discussion and speculation quickly escalated about A&M joining the SEC and possibly taking Oklahoma with them.  The SEC decided this weekend to not extend an invitation to the Aggies or anyone else, at this time. They did not, however, close the door on the possibility of future expansion and that maybe invitations could still be tendered in the future.

The foundation of the Big XII seems to be built on shaky ground.  If more teams jump ship, it won’t be a good thing for a lot of schools.  At this point, is it possible for the conference to be salvaged?  Somehow, I don’t believe it can be.  Talk persists of 4 super conferences eventually evolving from the rubble of the Big XII.  Will all 10 teams be able to find homes in the super conferences?  Again, I doubt it. 

Since a big portion of this issue stems from football generated revenue, four or five teams could be left out.  Baylor has long been a football doormat.  They look to be more competitive recently but just how attractive are they.  Kansas is a perennial basketball powerhouse and I would hope this would be enough to garner an invitation but for the most part, the Jayhawks are a pigskin wasteland.  Kansas State has turned itself around from one of the worst football programs ever to a respectable program over the last 20 years and has improved their round ball status recently as well.  Missouri has courted the Big Ten, and possibly the SEC as well.  Their rejuvenated football program may make them an attractive school to either of those conferences.  Iowa State may be in the worst position of any of the schools as they excel in neither football nor basketball.  Texas Tech has had some recent success in football but is located in a very tough place.  Since it is so isolated, I am not sure where they would fit.  I sincerely doubt Oklahoma will have any trouble landing anywhere and Oklahoma State is well rounded enough to find a good spot as well.  Texas is the interesting school because they obviously want to be the big fish in whatever pond they end up in.  I doubt though, that many conferences would capitulate to their demands any better than Nebraska did.  It would not surprise me if, in the course of the fallout, the Longhorns don’t end up an independent ala Notre Dame in at least football.

As a Kansas fan, I am obviously most worried about what happens to the Jayhawks, and to a certain extent, their chief rivals, Kansas State and Missouri.  At this point, the schools need to look out for themselves first but I would hope some loyalty still exists to these long time rivals.  It would be a natural geographical fit for KU, KSU, MU, and ISU to look toward the Big Ten.  I just don’t know how attractive each of those schools would be to that conference.  Since a lot of this is revenue driven, Missouri would bring in the most television sets.  KU and KSU would split the already small state of Kansas pie and the Cyclones would overlap with Iowa, already in the Big Ten.  I have not been a big fan of the Big Ten, mainly because I think that conference plays a boring, brutal style of basketball but at this point I would want KU to pursue entry to the Big Ten if administrators truly think the Big XII is doomed.  I would hope KU would try to bring KSU, MU, and ISU with them if possible but I wouldn’t want them to miss out because of the other schools.

I am in no way assuming KU is a more attractive option for the Big Ten than those other 3 schools, or the Oklahoma institutions, or even the Texas schools.  The reason I am discussing KU and the other 3 north schools is that is where my loyalty lies and I do feel geographically they are a good fit for the Big Ten.  The KU basketball program is the only national powerhouse program in either football or basketball among those four schools.  Missouri has worked their way into the national spotlight in football on a consistent basis over the past few years and K-State has had its share of success over the past 20 too.  I have pointed out this seems to be football inspired so KU and ISU could be the ones left out.  I just hold hope that the Jayhawk basketball program would gain them consideration despite their football shortcomings. 

I truly think the Big XII conference has little time left in its present form.  I like the strong ten school make up that is presently in place and I am not sure those schools are even aware of how strong they could be as a conference.  It all comes back to Texas and the Longhorns’ apparent need to be top dog.  That is just not the way it should be done.  I just don’t want KU to be left out in the cold.  I would prefer the Big Ten over the Pac-12, simply because I would hate all of those 9pm start times for basketball.  Both are better than the alternative options.  The next several months are going to be interesting, especially if Texas A&M bolts as it looks like they most certainly will.  I worry about Kansas and its chief rivals and where they might land.  Everything is speculation at this point but I can’t help wonder if these aren’t the waning days of the Big XII.

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Royals' Youth Is Served Now

A week ago, I was quite vocal about my displeasure with the fact Chris Getz was still playing everyday while Johnny Giavotella and his red hot bat languished in AAA.  Since then, that situation has right itself, finally.  While I still wonder why Gio wasn’t called up about two weeks earlier, I will let that go.  Now, I would like to focus on the present and the future.

With Giavotella taking over at second, the Royals now sport what has to be one of the youngest starting infields of all time.  Kansas City’s four infielders average less than 23 years old.  This is incredible.  And they all have a chance to be good.  Eric Hosmer looks like the real deal, both at the plate and with the glove.  Mike Moustakas seems to be slightly better than I expected in the field and has struggled mightily with the bat.  I have every confidence hitting coach Kevin Seitzer will get Moose though this tough stretch.  It worries me a bit that Moose has shown no power thus far but hopefully he can enjoy some success over the next two months so he can enter 2012 with a little confidence.  I still don’t really care what Alcides Escobar hits.  While he has made some massive improvements over the past two months at the plate, his glove is what excites me to no end.  He seems to make a spectacular play every day – and he makes the routine, well, routine.  Now we have Johnny Giavotella.  After getting to watch him for just a few games, I really like his efficient, quick bat and his glove and range look adequate.  His work in the field won’t be any worse than Getz and it looks to me Gio has even more grittiness than Getz.  He won’t steal as many bases but I can live with that.

Behind the plate, Matt Treanor is hurt and the Royals are getting a brief look at 24-year old Manny Pina.  Pina looks to be a servable back-up, much like Bryan Pena (29).  Both are merely holding a place for 21-year old Salvador Perez, recently promoted to AAA.  Salvador may be the catching version of Alcides Escobar – phenomenal with the glove and a work in progress at the plate.

Come Thursday when Melky Cabrera celebrates his birthday, the Royals’ starting outfield will all be 27.  I have no issues with that at all.  All three will be 27 and each has extensive major league experience.  If Alex Gordon, Melky, and Jeff Francoeur are the starting outfielders next season, I won’t be mad in the least.  Gordon is finally having his long anticipated breakout year.  Frenchy is not only having a good year stat-wise but he is having an improved year with his peripherals.  He has a chance to set career bests in walk rate, batting eye, and his lowest ground ball rate.  He has already doubled his career stolen base totals and should soon top his career walk season best.  These are marks of improvement.  Melky is enjoying a nice breakout season himself, putting up his best power stats.  Plus, these guys lead the world with 40 outfield assists.  Fourth outfielder Mitch Maier is 29 and does a fine job in his role.  Who knows what will happen with all these guys but the Royals do have a couple of guys knocking at the door in AAA in Lorenzo Cain and David Lough.

Kansas City’s designated hitter is 25-year old Billy Butler, who finally seems to be getting the fact that there is little value in a light hitting DH.  He has picked up his power and hopefully he can sustain that level.  While Butler can flat out hit, he needs to hit more doubles and homers to reach his potential and to be a mainstay in the line-up.

If you are paying attention, you will realize that outside of the DL’s Matt Treanor, no Royal position player in over 30 years old.  I’m just getting started.

No pitcher in the bullpen, none of the eight, are older than 27.  Five of them are 25 or younger.  And there are more bullpen arms developing rapidly in the minors.  The bullpen went from a disaster area over the last couple of years (not including Soria in that statement) to a major strength of this team, Soria included.  They are young and sometimes get themselves in trouble with losing focus and walking too many, but these are problems that should improve with age. 

Now the problem area – the rotation.  Luke Hochevar and Felipe Paulino are both only 27.  Paulino has been a godsend to this team.  Eating innings and keeping the team in the game every time out.  He has had his fair share of bad luck with a 34% hit rate but he looks to have solved his command issues.  Hochevar may (or may not) have turned a corner as he has looked better of late.  We have seen this before and he has not maintained it.  Kansas City needs this to be real.  Desperately.  Twenty-two year old Danny Duffy is raw but I hope the experience he is gaining in 2011 will serve him positively next season.  He has moments where he looks absolutely terrific but he really lets his pitch counts get away from him.  He needs to be more consistent in his efficiency.  That leaves Kyle Davies, Bruce Chen, and Jeff Francis.  I doubt whether any of these guys are in town next year.  Please, please, please let Davies be gone.  Chen and Francis have been serviceable but they are what they are.  The problem is I don’t have a clue who will fill these rotation slots in 2012.  I don’t think the Royals have a clue either.  The vaunted stable of arms in the minors seemed to have collectively taken a big step backwards this season.  Other than Duffy, no one has pitched well enough to called up to The Show.  That scares the heck out of me.  As much potential as this team shows at the plate and in the pen, there is a gigantic void where a rotation should be.  It is going to be a behemoth task for Dayton Moore to figure this out and I am doubtful he can do it. 

As positive as it looks at times for this franchise, the lack of a rotation is going to be a thorn.  With no regulars (unless you count Treanor) over 27 years old, and with no bullpen arm over 27, the present and the future is brighter than it has been for a very long time around this organization.  Even now, with one of the worst records in baseball, the Royals are a very competitive team.  They have a chance to win every night, unless Kyle Davies is on the mound.  They scrap and fight from inning one to inning nine.  I love that.  I can only hope Moore figures something out or some of the prospects regain the ground lost in 2011 and the Royals can put together a good rotation for 2012.  The Royals cannot seriously compete for an AL Central title until the starting rotation is fixed.

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The Royals Outfield Is All Right

I have been extremely irritated over the last couple of days while reading numerous posts on various sites raking Dayton Moore over the coals for his not trading Melky Cabrera or Jeff Francoeur.  Dayton Moore provides plenty of fodder for which we can voice our frustration and disappointment (I will address this later) but this should not be one of those things.

We do not have any idea how hard Dayton Moore tried to trade any of his chips.  From I couple of things I read, Moore seemed frustrated with the process over this past week.  I have read that another GM for a small market team didn’t feel like there was any true negotiating for his players.  Basically, teams called him about his players and made offers without any give or take.  If this is true, it is not hard to believe Moore was put in the same position with his tradable players.  I have read that the Royals may have valued their players too much, especially based on their past and not their present.

This may all be true.  The Royals did not have a prime player to trade, other than maybe Joakim Soria.  What did we truly expect from what Kansas City was offering?  Did it matter if we received another Sean O’Sullivan or Vin Mazarro?  Just how many lower level non-prospects do the Royals need to fill out their minor league rosters?

What is getting under my skin is that everyone is jumping on Moore’s back because he did not trade one of his outfielders, probably for nothing of value in return, and this is unreasonable.

The three main starters for the Royals in the outfield have put up terrific numbers.  Gordon, Cabrera, and Francoeur have 373 hits in 1272 at bats for a .293 average.  They have combined for 88 doubles, 10 triples, and 41 home runs.  They have 184 runs scored and have 181 rbi.  On top of all of this, they are up to, what, 37 outfield assists?  THIS IS A PRODUCTIVE MAJOR LEAGUE OUTFIELD!  How long have we as Royals fans been begging for an outfield this productive?  Not since the days of Damon, Beltran, and Dye have I felt so good about the everyday players Kansas City has ran out to patrol the outfield.  How many major league outfields have been more productive this season?  Are there any?  If there are any out there, they can not have outpaced the Royals by much.

I understand the argument about Lorenzo Cain being ready and wasted in AAA, and that’s probably true.  It is not like Cain is a 21-year old prospect, though.  He is only a year younger than Melky and only 2 younger than Frenchy.  The two guys on the major league roster are in the beginning of their prime years and they have massive experience.  While Melky is having a breakout year, I keep reading that Jeff Francoeur is just the same old player.  This just isn’t true.  He has already more than doubled his career stolen base high.  He has a good chance to set his career high in walks as well.  Frenchy started off his career with a pretty good first two plus years, followed by three very pedestrian seasons with no plate discipline.  His numbers this year may reflect his career as a whole but his numbers are better than the last three in nearly every aspect.  I watch him play nearly every day and I do not see a guy just up there hacking away.  No, he is never going to a disciplined guy who takes a ton of walks but why can’t people see he isn’t the same player.  At 27, he certainly is young enough to improve his approach and I think Kevin Seitzer is having a positive effect on Frenchy.

Sorry, but I am fired up about this.  While there is always room for improvement there is certainly no guarantee Lorenzo Cain is going to out produce either of these two guys.  The Royals have three productive outfielders who are playing hard and appear to want to be here.  Let’s get off Moore’s back and enjoy the production we are getting from our present outfield instead hoping others could do better.

I am more disappointed about Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen not being moved but I doubt either had even replacement level value on the market.  The Royals don’t appear to have any major league ready starting pitchers ready in the minors so again I can’t blame Moore for not making irrelevant trades just for the sake of making trades.

This all being said, I am very ticked off about a move made yesterday.  Kyle Davies was placed on the DL (yippee!) but instead of promoting Johnny Giavotella, the Royals recalled Everett Teaford.  While I have nothing against Teaford, who has pitched well when called upon this far, do the Royals really need yet another reliever on the active roster?  Does KC need eight relievers and 13 total pitchers on the roster?  Unlike Cain, Giavotella does not have a productive player in front of him.  There is absolutely no reason for Chris Getz to be starting every day.  Zero.  Nada.  Getz offers speed and grittiness.  Period.  Let him pinch run late in games and get his lackluster bat and overrated glove out of the line-up.  Moore did not hesitate to bring up Hosmer and Moustakus.  Why is he waiting with Giavotella?  Every game I see Chris Getz in the line-up just makes me mad as heck.  Talk about an absolutely worthless waste of time.  Nothing would please me more than if Getz and Davies never played another inning for the Royals.  Dayton Moore continues to hurt this ball club as long as these two dead weights remain on the roster.

I can only hope we see Johnny Giavotello soon.  I hope Moore and the Royals learned their lesson with the Kila fiasco by not giving the big guy a true shot to show what he could do earlier.  It is still early enough in the season for everyone to get a sense of what Giavotella can do but not if they wait until September.  Moore needs to get over his crushes on Davies and Getz and very, very soon.  I, for one, am quickly losing patience.

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