I use the term “stat geek” in only the most complimentary
manner possible. I am a stat geek. I have been for years. I was the kid who minded the stats books for
the girls’ games before my games in junior high and high school. I kept stats on my own video games. I studied the back of baseball and football
cards until I knew all the numbers. When
fantasy baseball rose to prominence in the 1980s, I was one of the first in
line and I have been hooked ever since.
I love all the stats like the hard stats like home runs,
stolen bases, RBI, etc. I like the
peripheral stats like on-base percentage, slugging percentage etc. I like the trending skill stats like ground
ball rate, contact rate, strikeouts per 9 innings, K/BB, batting average on
ball in play, etc. I even love algebraic
stats like wins above replacement and runs above replacement. So much of baseball – real and fantasy – is
based on the projecting of stats through scientific and mathematical
analysis. We try to predict hard stats
much more scientifically than we used to be analyzing players’ trending
skills. For example, if a hitter bats
.320 for a season and he enjoyed an average of .360 on balls in play (batted
balls in between the lines), we can predict with confidence that his batting
average will drop the next year.
Throughout baseball history, the average on balls put in play is right
around .300. If our batter hit .360, we
know he enjoyed extreme luck on batted balls.
The odds are very good that luck at that level will not continue for a
second season, therefore his batting average will most likely drop. The point is I love all of these stats and I
use them all the time to analyze players.
Sometimes, though, the numbers don’t tell the whole story.
Now we come to the part of this post that I have rewritten
three times this morning. I keep falling
into a deep explanation of stats and what separates similarly skilled players
from one another. That is not what I
intended when I started this piece. I
decided to write this because I am ticked off at the reaction of all the stat
geeks out there to the Royals signing Jeremy Guthrie, and also to their
reaction to the Royals trading for Ervin Santana a couple of weeks ago. There are several stat guys and bloggers out
there that I have read and respected for years.
I still do but I have gotten very frustrated with them over the past few
weeks.
I am not going to list all of the bloggers and their
sites. Let’s just say these are some
very smart, very passionate guys. Most
are Royals fans but a couple others are just stat geeks. Some are baseball guys – you know the talking
heads on television. Almost to a man
these guys are ripping the Royals for the money they have committed to Santana
and Guthrie. Their point is the Royals
could have spent their allotted free agent money more wisely. My question to all of these guys is how?
Kansas City will
pay Santana $11 million in 2013 (it’s 12 actually but they received a million
form the Angels) and they will pay $5 million to Guthrie this season, $11
million in 2014, $9 million in 2015.
They have committed $36 million to receive 4 seasons of services
(overlap in 2013). I read a comment from
one former GM, ragging on the Royals for paying $16 million to those two newly
acquired pitchers. He asked why they
didn’t spend that money on Greinke or Anibal Sanchez. This was an utterly stupid comment. Neither of those pitchers, the best two
options on the free agent market, are going to sign 1-year $16 million dollar
deal with the Royals, or anyone else for that matter. They are not going to sign a 2-year deal for
$32 million deal either. It would not
surprise me if Greinke signs a 6-year, $120 million contract and I’m expecting
at least 6 years and $90 million for Sanchez.
The Royals flat out can’t afford those contracts for that amount of
years.
The next level of free agents is Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson,
and Kyle Lohse. All of these three have
their warts and are probably better than the two pitchers Kansas
City added.
They are all probably going to command much bigger deals than what KC
handed out. There is still a chance the
Royals can sign one of these guys but it is an outside chance because with such
a limited market, these guys are probably going to be way over priced, more so
than Guthrie.
Last night I got into a polite on-line argument with a stat
guy about the length of Guthrie’s contract.
Another baseball guy, Rany Jazayerli, liked the signing but hates the
third year so much he is not willing to endorse the signing. I understand the argument but my stand was
there was probably little chance the Royals sign him without that third
year. The debaters against the signing
all point to that third year, saying you don’t give a 36-year old pitcher with
pretty pedestrian numbers $9 million. The
contract averages $8.3 million a year.
That is not out of line with a pitcher of his caliber. If Sanchez signs that 6-year, $90 million
deal, will he be worth $15 million at the age of 34? Will he provide more than 3 and a half times
the value over the course of his contract than Guthrie will provide over the
duration of his contract? I sincerely
doubt it very much.
Another point is that premium free agents, especially top of
the rotation pitchers are not going to sign in Kansas City,
for any reasonable amount. This is sad
and it sucks but it is the absolutely the truth. People can hide behind their keyboards and
pontificate all they want about how terrible Dayton Moore is (and he has earned
much of their scorn in all honesty) and how he should be spending money on the
Greinkes and Sanchezes of the world.
That doesn’t change the fact they aren’t going to sign here. I would love to be proved wrong but it will
never happen at this point. Until the
Royals can improve their record and challenge for divisional titles, the Royals
and Dayton Moore are going to have to slightly overpay for fringe free agents
who only marginally improve the team.
That is a fact of life. It is reality. Quit begging the general manager to improve
the team then bashing him when he does.
How about finding ways to be positive instead of filling your pages with
negativity? How maybe throwing some
support behind your team?
Of course, I know the answers to those questions. Whenever Moore
has made a move with the major league roster, more often than not, it has ended
in disaster. We have to live with Moore’s
bad judgments in signing Jeff Franceour and Bruce Chen to 2 year extensions for
too much money. We have to live with Moore
trading anyone for Jonathon Sanchez. We
have to live with Moore signing
terrible players like Yuniesky Betancourt.
Those types of moves do not translate into confidence when Moore
signs a guy like Guthrie for 3 years.
I want to take a moment to examine Jeremy Guthrie. If you throw out the very small sample size
of Guthrie’s starts in Coors Field, his stats last year were right in line with
his career numbers. Many a pitcher has
fallen apart in Coors Field. Guthrie
wasn’t the first and he won’t be the last.
I think we can safely toss out those three plus months in the Mile
High City. Guthrie has been consistent and durable, if
not spectacular or flashy, throughout his career. The Royals desperately need a
starter who can throw into the seventh on a regular basis. One national talking head baseball guy has
gone on the record that other GMs around the league think the Royals’ deal with
Guthrie is a fair one because of his stamina and durability. Rany Jazayerli does a great breakdown on
Guthrie and comparable pitchers and their contracts at ranyontheroyals.com.
One stat guy told me last night he thought the Royals should
tap into their deep reserves of minors to acquire pitching. I agree and I hope this is still being pursued
by the Royals’ front office. Many people
think KC should give up one of their young hitters but I think it is
counterproductive to trade key offensive pieces on the major league level to
acquire pitching. What good is that
pitcher if they can’t score runs for him?
The Royals do have a deep minor league system and I hope some of that
talent can be moved to improve the big league roster.
Two years from now, I may be bemoaning the fact the Moore
was an idiot and the Royals are paying a broken down, awful pitcher $9 million
instead of having money freed up to sign a stud. Feel free to remind me of this tirade
then. At this point, under the
circumstances, Moore has added two
arms better than what they had before. I
believe the market on free agent pitching is about to quickly explode and the
Royals may end up with a couple of bargains.
Hopefully they will get the performances they are hoping for. It seems the Murphy’s Law rules at
Kaufman. Eventually, there has to be a
turning point for this organization.
Let’s hope it is 2013 and let’s try being less negative and more realistic.
Thanks for reading and have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving
Day and weekend.
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