I am in a huge minority, I'm afraid. I do not (and never have) pay much attention to fantasy baseball projected player values. I just don't see the point. Most projected values you see online or in publications are based on a standard 5x5, 12 team league, for either the NL or AL. Just what is the percentage of leagues out there that fall within these parameters? I have been playing fantasy baseball for over 20 years, usually three, or four, or five, leagues a year, and I don't think I have EVER played in a league that fell within those parameters. So many variables come into play - categories, number of teams, size of the rosters, etc - to accurately compute what a player's value would be in most leagues.
Even Ron Shandler, who has made projections his life's work, has started to question the purpose of predicting stats and values over the last couple of years, as evidenced by some of his comments in the 2010 & 2011 Baseball Forcaster. With injuries, playing time based on the whims of managers, ball park changes, age, etc. how can anyone take projections with a grain of salt? Why would anyone waste valuable prep time pouring over projections, especially when they can vary considerably from website to website, from publication to publication? Projected values are merely someone's educated guess about a league that is not yours.
In my opinion, owners should decide for themselves what a player's value is, IN THEIR OWN LEAGUE. This should be based on what the categories are, size, and other owners. The unique owners in your league have as much to do with what players will sell for in a draft than just about anything else. Are there a couple of owners in your league that covet steals? Are there owners in your league who always pay too much for saves? These are just a few of the nuances that affect values in an auction.
These values don't take into account the ebb and flow of an auction either. Things like how much over bidding goes in your particular league early, or the position scarcity that will arise inevitably when you are battling one other owner for the last even mediocre middle infielder left. A few years ago, at the end of an auction, I paid $24 for Adrian Beltre (not after one of his good years), because one other owner besides myself had money and a third baseman slot left and there was a huge chasm between Beltre and the leftovers. Was Beltre worth $24? Not at the beginning of the auction, but the market value for him at that point and time was $24.
Everyone who plays fantasy baseball knows the basic value of a player in your league without memorizing that info from a website, book, or magazine. You already know Derrick Lee is probably going to go between $12 and $18 in your auction. You know that someone will overpay for Derek Jeter based on his position and age. (Curious side note - what would Jeter go for if he was an outfielder?). These things are common sense to someone with fantasy baseball experience. What you should be studying are the player stats and peripherals and which way are they trending. If you knows these, you already know that you could safely pay $12 for Lee but not $18, and that you should let anyone else over pay on a rapidly aging shortstop.
It is so much more valuable to know if a player is trending up or down in his walk rate, or contact rate, or fly ball rate, and how that will help or hurt your team, in your league, rather than know what arbitrary number someone else has placed on that player.
I know most fantasy owners do not agree with me on this point. That's okay. I will just spend my time studying what is important.
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