Every season there are several players who outperform their historical stats. In real baseball it is called a career year. In fantasy baseball it is an outlier. I decided to look at of few players who are either over performing or under achieving so far this year. I wanted to see if we should look at these players to see if they will continue on their present paths or will they return to their normal numbers. These are some players I want to give a longer look.
Phil Humber was a first round choice of the Mets. He was traded to the Twins in the Santana deal and he was waived by both the Royals and the A’s in the last year. For the first time in his career, he is living up to that draft status. In 2011, he has a 2.95 ERA and a .97 WHIP. Will these numbers continue? After watching him pitch last year for the Royals, I would say no. Nothing about him impressed me very much. He looked how a career long reliever/spot starter would look. What do the numbers say this season? The biggest thing that stands out for me is his BAbip (batting average on balls in play). The baseline for this stat is always right around .300. Humber’s is an incredibly low .221. Some regression is overdue here. What helps though, is Humber is more of a ground play pitcher than a fly ball one. He coaxes ground balls about 43% of the time and this is lower than the past couple of season (brief stints). He is also walking few batters, with only 19 BB in 82 IP. So what is my conclusion? His BAbip can’t continue at this rate. More balls are going to start falling. This will drive his ERA and WHIP up. Getting a lot of ground balls will probably erase some of these extra base runners with more double plays. If he keeps his walk rate down, I think he will continue to be effective. Expect a rise in his ERA and WHIP but don’t expect him to crash and burn in the second half.
Alexi Ogando befuddles me. I have watched him pitch 5 games this season and I cannot see what is making him so effective. His stuff does not look exceptional yet few batters are squaring up his pitches. His numbers are exceptional – 2.10 ERA and .90 WHIP. Will Ogando continue to put up these numbers? I have doubted it all season and he continues to prove me wrong. Let’s take a closer look. Much like Humber, Ogando has been extremely lucky. His BAbip is extremely low at .210. This number has to rise, especially because, unlike Humber, he is not a ground ball pitcher. 63% of all batted balls against Ogando are in the air. In his home park, that ain’t good. Eventually, all these balls in the air are going to find gaps or fly over walls. He has only allowed 13 extra base hits all season. That is fantastic, but unsustainable, in my opinion. If he continues, though, to avoid the sweet spots, he will surprise me. I look for some major regression at some point with Ogando. I would trade him soon. In fact, I already did, although it was apparently too early.
Matt Joyce is hitting extremely well thus far. He has probably been the most important bat in Tampa’s lineup. What can we look for over the next few months? For one thing, his average has got to drop soon. His BAbip is at an unsustainable .373. Some of those balls are going to start getting caught in the following weeks. I am also worried because his walk numbers are down as well. Last year, with 36 more AB, he had 18 more walks. If some of those balls start getting caught and his average starts to drop, he is not being patient enough to fight through a sustained right now. Joyce is an extreme fly ball hitter, so I think he can sustain his power numbers and be a legitimate asset in those power categories but if you expect him to bat .330 all year, I’m afraid you are going to be disappointed. Keep in mind we are only about two weeks away from career high in AB for Joyce. We don’t know if more exposure will be a good thing or bad thing yet.
Lance Berkman is hitting like he is 25 years old. Unfortunately, he’s 35. Right now, he looks like the Berkman of old. His average is good and his BAbip is not out of line. His power has been terrific as well. My concern with Berkman is strictly about age. What will happen to Berkman in July and August, in St. Louis, playing a lot in the field? His batting EYE and flyball/line drive/groundball numbers are pretty close to his career averages. To me, it is all about his age and I don’t think I would gamble that Lance will maintain these numbers the rest of the season.
Adam Dunn is having a career year. Unfortunately, it is going the wrong way. Dunn has been horrible. Awful. I cannot describe it any other way. We all know it and anyone who owns Dunn in any fantasy leagues is begging the big guy to turn it around soon. His BAbip is a little low at .261 so we should expect a rise in average as this number rectifies itself. The problem is Dunn isn’t putting many balls in play. He has struck out 84 times so far and the few times I have watched him, he has looked lost. He has missed balls by a foot at times. Look, Dunn has always been a swing for the fences kind of guy and that’s fine. Right now though, he is just not making enough contact to pull himself out of this slump. My gut tells me though, Dunn will eventually right himself. All it will take is for him to get red hot for a week or so and it will be on. If he gets hot, watch out for the White Sox. If I could, I would try to get Dunn cheap and take a chance.
Justin Morneau is a worrisome case for me. His concussion issues are well documented and I am starting to get the feeling Morneau may never return to his former greatness. His low batting average (.225) is due, in part, to his low BAbip, .249. In theory, this number should revert more to the norm. Morneau is a weird example for this stat. A look at his career BAbip show a startling pattern of being way below or way above the league wide average of .300. His career BAbip is a low .293, but he hasn’t been close to that number in any particular season. I don’t know how much this number will correct itself with Morneau. Another concern for me is his walk rates are way below his career norms. His present walk rate is at 6%. His career lowest was 8% early in his career. Last season before his injury, it was 14%. I don’t know if he isn’t seeing the ball well or what but he is turning into a hacker. Finally, a home run for every 53 AB is not the mark of a power hitter. This number really scares me because he is a natural power hitter and he has no power right now. The longer this goes on, the less likely I expect a recovery. I hate to say this but Morneau may be finished as a productive star in the majors.
These are just a few players who I am keeping an eye on. I think each is an extreme case in his own right and how they perform from here will determine if they future stars or just average players.
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