Kansas City Fool's Gold

When have we seen enough?  How many times can a pitcher utterly fail?  How many times will a team run a guy out and leave your team with little chance of winning?  I guess if you run a small market baseball team and drafted a guy first overall, the answer is indefinitely.

Luke Hochevar has over 600 career innings and over 100 career starts.  Not counting 4 appearances in 2007, Hochevar is in his fifth full season.  His lowest ERA is 4.68 and only once has his WHIP been below 1.427.  Because of a nice second half last season, he had a career low WHIP of 1.283.  It turned out to be fool’s gold.

He looked to have finally turned a corner last season.  In the second half, he turned in a respectable 3.52 ERA, 1.134 WHIP, and 7.7 K/9ip.  Expectations were high in 2012 for the former number one overall draft pick.  Fantasy experts were listing him as a big sleeper and the Royals were looking for him to prove that their infinite patience in him was justified.  Many, including myself, really thought maybe the light bulb had finally clicked on.  Unfortunately, it had not.

In six starts, Hochevar has only thrown 28 innings and is supporting a downright ugly 9.00 ERA.  In the past, he has shown a penchant for looking brilliant for 3, 4 , sometimes 5 innings then he just loses it completely, allowing fists full of runs.  This year, those innings have been early in the game, crippling the bullpen.  He hasn’t been walking an inordinate number of batters but has been getting hammered.  He has allowed 39 hits in 28 innings.  He is pounding the middle of the strike zone, never an ideal place to be against major league batters.  Check out this graph of his pitch location from texasleaguers.com.

Note the cluster of strikes in what is the general wheelhouse of most big leagues.  Throwing strikes is great but you can’t just throw it down the middle.  If a guy hasn’t learned this little tidbit after 600 innings, I doubt he will ever will.

So, what should the Royals do with this albatross?  Kansas City suffers from a horrible lack of even mediocre depth in their rotation.  Now, with Jonathan Sanchez (another apparent mistake and another article all together) on the DL, it appears the Royals won’t be able to do anything with Hochevar until Sanchez returns, and even then it is doubtful KC can come up with another starter.  Fourteen months ago, the Royals had 5 top pitching prospects but only Danny Duffy has really started to pitch to his potential.  There is no immediate help in the minors.  I would suggest that as soon as Sanchez comes back, they should send Aaron Crow to AAA and begin to stretch him out a bit.  Let him rejoin the club when he as built up some stamina and push Hochevar to the pen.  Hochevar has shown superlative stuff in the past, albeit in small doses.  He wouldn’t be the first pitcher ever to go to the bullpen and discover how to pitch.  Maybe he can learn to at least be a decent contributor to the team.

Who knows if the Royals will do anything in the near future.  Maybe Hochevar can turn it around in his next few starts.  Again, anyone, including Dayton Moore, who believes that will happen, is just fooling himself.  I don’t think I would ever trust him to be a reliable cog for my team again.  Considering the Royals ran Kyle Davies out to the mound for several years doesn’t lead me to believe they will do anything with Hochevar either.  If nothing else, the Royals have proved to be slow learners themselves. 

My thanks to baseball-reference.com and texasleaguers.com for their stats and pitch data.

365 Days of Eric Hosmer

It was a year ago today Eric Hosmer made his major league debut with the Kansas City Royals after demolishing AAA hitting in April to the tune of a .439 average and an 1.107 OPS.  The hopes and dreams of beleaguered Royals fans rested on the shoulders of this heralded young slugger.  There have been plenty of glimpses of stardom but the one year results are mixed.

Overall, the stats for Hosmer’s first full year are very promising.  Most of these stats were accumulated before Eric’s 22^nd birthday.  In 627 AB, Hosmer has 24 home runs, 80 runs, and 93 RBI.  He has a solid, if unspectacular, .276 average, a lower than ideal .323 OBP, a respectable .451 SLG, and a slightly disappointing .774 OPS.  30 doubles, 4 triples, and 12 stolen bases are all promising numbers.

Of course, these numbers are all skewed downward by a frustratingly unlucky first month of the 2012 season.  Hosmer is only hitting .192 with an anemic .654 OPS.  Hosmer has been plagued by a horrific bating average on balls in play (BABIP).  The league average is usually around .300 but Hosmer is only hitting .179 BABIP.  This is unsustainably terrible.  All of his skills indicators are intact.  His walk rate is 10% and his contact rate is 86%.  Both of these numbers are above average and indicate that he is being patient and making good contact.  The biggest problem is that his ground ball rate is way too high at 48%.  He needs to get more line drives (18%) and fly balls (34%).  His home run rate on fly ball is healthy at 17%.  I watch the Royals nearly every day and I feel like Hosmer is on the brink of going nuts on opposing pitchers.  He is hitting rockets and line drives all over the field that are all getting caught.  Defenders are making great plays on his hard hit balls every day.  It is only a matter of time before those balls start falling and then watch out!

The exciting thing about Hosmer is that as bad as his first month of 2012 has been, his total numbers in his first full year are still outstanding for a player who will still be 22 years old at the end of the season.  Last season, Hosmer show the ability to adjust to pitchers’ adjustments to him.  He is not being overwhelmed at the plate.  He is still hitting to all fields, just into bad luck.  I have not heard or read anything about the Royals thinking he needs to go to the minors to work out his swing.  Again, it is more about luck than the way Hosmer is swinging the bat.

I have seen little in the stats and data and even less in my observations of Eric Hosmer to have soured on him even a little.  I still firmly believe he will be a star for the Kansas City Royals, a stalwart in the middle of their line up who is a big run producer.  Even during this season long slump, Hosmer has still produced 24 runs and that is an excellent sign (Albert Pujols only has 14).  His first full season numbers for home runs, runs scored, and RBI all point to a kid who is on the verge of something special and I am excited to be able to watch this kid play every day.

Thanks to baseball-reference.com and baseballhq.com for their excellent statistics and skill indicators.

Get more small market baseball news at bigbrotherbaseballproject.blogspot.com and get movie and TV reviews at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com.  Follow me on twitter @jawsrecliner

The Most Under-Appreciated Royal

George Brett is undeniably the greatest hitter in the history of the Kansas City Royals.  Brett accumulated 3,154 hits, 665 doubles, 137 triples (yeah, you read that right), and 317 home runs.  He had 1,583 runs, 1596 rbi, and a .305 average on route to a first ballot Hall of Fame career.  As far as the Royals are concerned, no player is even close and I think Brett would be listed on most lists as a top 3 all-time third baseman, even though he played a lot of games at first and DH. 

The Royals have a hitter on their team right now that compares favorable to Brett at the same age.  No, it’s not phenom Eric Hosmer.  No, it’s not emerging Alex Gordon.  It is the veteran Billy Butler.  It seems like Billy “Country Breakfast” Butler has been around forever but did you know Butler just celebrated his 26^th birthday less than two weeks ago?  He has amassed some really impressive statistics at a very young age. 

George Brett basically got started a year earlier than Butler.  Butler got 390 AB at the age of 21 while Brett received 41 AB at 20 and 486 AB at 21 years of age.  For comparative purposes, I am going by games.  Brett had 731 games by the end of 1978, when he was 25.  Butler has 712 games through 04/28/2012, after just turning 26.  There isn’t that much difference in age between these two hitters after a similar number of games played

Brett had 3114 PA to Butlers 2947 at this stage.  Brett had an amazing 2850 AB with 870 hits.  He had led the AL in both of those categories twice by the time he was 24 years old.  Billy has 2653 AB and 789 hits.  Brett’s average in that time was .305 (a match for his career) and Butler is hitting .297.  The biggest thing that these numbers illustrate is that in his early 20’s, George Brett was already a hitting star.  We all know he was playing on a great team, one that won 3 division titles during this time.  Butler has been in the middle of the lineup for some of the worst teams in the majors so far in his career. 

If you delve deeper though, Butler compares even more favorably in some of the other stats.  Butler has 191 doubles to Brett’s 169.  Keep in mind that George Brett is 6^th all time in doubles.  Butler has been criticized that he doesn’t hit for power, yet he has out homered Brett during this stretch 79 to 51.  In fact, Butler has more extra base hits than Brett during these similar periods of their careers, 279 to 273.  This is despite the fact that Brett already had an incredible 53 triples by the end of 1978. 

(An interesting side note – George Brett ranks 67^th in triples with 137.  Of players who played in a significant number of games after 1970, only Lou Brock and teammate Willie Wilson hit more triples than Brett.  I think this is one of the more amazing stats of Brett’s career because he only stole 201 bases – he was not known as a speedster at all.)

As I mentioned before, Brett was in the middle of a terrific lineup and he scored 413 runs in those early years while Butler is quite a bit behind him with 321.  Butler is as slow on the base paths as any player you will see, plus Brett hit himself into scoring position a lot more with all of those triples.  This being said, Butler has more RBI through this point in their careers, 389 to 354, and impressive stat for Butler. 

I am not saying that Billy Butler is the player George Brett was.  Brett played in a much different era, on a much different team.  Butler will be forever cursed by the reality that he is a DH.  My point to this exercise is that Royals fans have been slow to embrace Butler as a favorite.  I think this is a mistake.  Butler is a consummate hitter and the ultimate leader of the Royals youth movement.  Butler is a very similar type of hitter to Brett.  His home run power will eventually develop, just like Brett’s did.  Even so, just like Brett’s, Butler’s power will probably top out around 30.  Butler will obviously never hit the triples King George did but his doubles’ numbers could be comparable.  The terrific stat site baseball-reference.com, has a great feature where they break down players careers into 162 game averages.  This is a good tool for comparative purposes.  Taking a close look at this, George Brett does have a slight edge over Butler in nearly every category.  That advantage though, is slight. 

George Brett was a first ballot Hall of Famer who received over 90% votes on that first ballot.  It is doubtful that Butler will play into his 40’s but I will tell you something.  As long as Butler continues to hit like a poor man’s George Brett, I want him penciled in my lineup everyday at DH.  Fans need to start appreciating Billy Butler.  The man can hit.

Check out other small market baseball news at bigbotherbaseballproject.blogspot.com and get movie and TV reviews at jawsrecliner.blogspot.com.  Follow me on twitter @jawsrecliner

Signings for the Future

The Royals’ General Manage Dayton Moore seems to be taking a page out of John Hart’s General Managing handbook.  Hart, of course, was the GM for the Cleveland Indians in the 1990’s.  Hart found himself loaded with a stable of young stud players such as Kenny Lofton, Carlos Baerga, Jim Thome, Omar Vizuel, and Albert Belle, just to name a few.  Hart aggressively signed his young players to early, long term contracts, locking them up and buying out their arbitration years.  The Indians were very successful and these players made the Indians an AL powerhouse in the 90’s.

Dayton Moore has spent much of this spring locking up some of his younger players to long term contracts.  Moore started off by signing 21-year old catching phenom Salavador Perez to a club friendly, 5 years, $7 million deal, plus club options for 3 more years and up to nearly $20 million more.  The Royals are forecasting Perez to be an above average MLB catcher and were willing to buy out his arbitration years at slightly below market value.  If Perez proves to be a catching stud muffin, the Royals will be able to lock him up for 3 more years at below market value.  Of course, Perez promptly went down with a torn meniscus, which will set back his development 3 months.  Still, Moore’s thinking was sound.

Next, the Royals bought shortstop Alcides Escobar out of his arbitration years with a 4-year, $10 million signing.  In addition, the Royals hold two options years for an extra combined $11.75 million.  Escobar may never be a great hitter but he is so incredible with his glove.  The Royals have NEVER had a shortstop with the defensive skills of Escobar.  I love watching this dude with the leather.  He makes the routine plays and he makes the fantastic plays.  His range is terrific in every direction and he has a rocket launcher for an arm.  It wouldn’t surprise me if Escobar eventually develops into a guy who can consistently hit around .275 with 10-12 home runs.  He has the speed to swipe 25-30 bases a year as well.  Make no mistake though; this contract for his defense.  The Royals again guaranteed long term money in exchange for locking up a top notch defensive player through the arbitration years and if Escobar can improve his overall hitting, Kansas City will have a terrific shortstop below market value through 2017.

This last week, Moore finally locked down Alex Gordon.  Gordon was drafted second overall in 2005 and was immediately (unfairly) crowned the savior of the organization.  After ripping through minor league pitching, Alex Gordon struggled in the majors with both poor performances and injuries.  At times, he looked like a colossal bust.  In 2011, he finally broke out, hitting .303 with 23 homers and 87 RBI and winning a Gold Glove in left field.  Gordon finally showed the talent that made him a top two draft pick.  Moore signed Gordon to a 4-year, $37.5 million deal, with a player option for a 5^th year for an additional $12.5 million.  This signing was as much of a public relations coup as anything else.  Fans wanted Alex Gordon signed long term.  The Royals went out on a limb with Gordon because he has only had one very good year.  Now he is locked up for 4 years. If he performs as he did in 2011, this contract pays Gordon fair market value.  If Gordon falters, Moore and the Royals may regret this deal.

What is important to the long suffering fans of the Royals, who have watched the team ship off their best players year after year with poor returns, is that Kansas City is putting forth the effort and money to lock these players up long term.  Another star, Billy Butler, was extended in 2011 and he is locked up through 2014, with a club option for 2015.  Young stars like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakus have just finished their rookie seasons and are under team control for 5 years.  Dayton Moore has a core set of players he can build upon.  By signing these longer contracts, he is trying to fray the costs down the road.  It will be difficult for Kansas City to ever have a $100 million payroll, so taking a few chances on some players now can only be a good thing.  Even if some of these players do not pan out completely, these contracts are not going to be crippling.  The Royals want to try to keep some long term cash in reserve in case Hosmer and Moustakus turn into the players the organization hope they can.  I am sure Moore is making an effort to lock up Hosmer as well, but signing a guy of that caliber of talent will not be easy. 

It is a delicate balance for small markets teams to lock up cash for long periods of time and to be competitive.  Teams like the Royals have a hard time convincing stars to sign with their team and coming up with enough money.  Small market teams have to develop their own players and find a way to keep them long term.  Two decades ago, John Hart made up the blueprints; Dayton Moore is trying to copy his results.  Hopefully, he can add a World Series Championship that eluded Hart and the Indians.

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