2011 Kansas City Chiefs Preview

Anyone who is hoping the Kansas City Chiefs repeat as AFC West champions are probably going to be disappointed.  I think it is just as likely the Chiefs finish closer to fourth in the division then to first.

As a fan, I was sorely disappointed in the Chiefs during the feeding frenzy that was this year’s free agent period.  With plenty of holes and salary cap room, it would have made sense for the Chiefs to make a big splash in free agency.  It just didn’t happen.  I really thought the Chiefs were about 3, maybe 4, good players away from really competing not only for the division but for the AFC title as well.  Pioli pretty much sat on his wallet and let impact player after impact player sign elsewhere, including a couple from Kansas City’s roster a year ago.  The holes and lack of depth in a couple key areas still exist and with the much tougher schedule in 2011, I can’t see a replication of the 2010 season.

The four biggest signings were DT Kevin Gregg, WR Steve Breaston, FB Le’Ron McLain, and LB Brandon Siler.  None of these guys are what could called top notch guys.  Gregg is aging with beat up knees.  He probably is a very slight upgrade from Ron Edwards but a slight downgrade from the flexible Sean Smith.  Regardless, the Chiefs are replacing two guys with one.  Steve Breaston was probably the best signing, mainly because the Chiefs are so thin with legitimate wide receiver talent.  Even so, Breaston is still a long way from star status.  Special teamer Brandon Siler was supposed to fortify a weak line backing core but is lost for the year with an injury.  FB McLain is a decent signing and can hopefully help out in short yardage situations, both blocking and running the ball.  All other signings were either projects or back of the roster filler.

The Chiefs are still woefully weak and thin on the offensive and defensive lines.  I’m afraid protecting Cassel and pressuring opposing signal callers are going to be big issues again in 2011.  Games are won and lost in the trenches with the big boys and I don’t see Kansas City improving at all in these key areas.

The Chiefs’ thoughts, I’m sure, are that this is still a very young team and natural improvement will make this team better.  In certain areas, this is probably true.  The defensive backfield is probably this team’s biggest strength.  They are young and eager and there has been natural growth in the past two years.  I think the line backers may be better than a year ago.  I’m not convinced the Chiefs are better in any other area.

Some rookies could step forward to make an impact and that would drastically improve this team.  OL Rodney Hudson should get plenty of snaps and offers some interior depth along the line.  Allen Bailey looks to have talent and may figure in the D-line rotation.  As the season progresses, LB Justin Houston may offer a boost.  Finally, if he shows some maturation, WR Jon Baldwin could help out a very weak position.  All of these players play at positions that are in need of help.   If the Chiefs have any chance at marked improvement, these four players must contribute in a positive manner.

At quarterback, I’m still not convinced Matt Cassel is the man.  He holds the ball too long and he tends to throw high, although he did this less and less as the season progressed a year ago.  He is very tough but doesn’t have the strongest arm in the world and he needs to increase his accuracy.  He does a good job managing the game and makes few terrible decisions on the field.  Still, he needs time to throw and I don’t think he will have much time behind this line.  The running game is in fine shape with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones.  I also like Le’Ron McLain.  He not only adds blocking but can bulldoze his way between the tackles.  I just find it hard to imagine Cassel can equal his 27 TD/7 Int numbers from a year ago.  Charles’ 1467 rushing yards and 6.4 yards per carry will be very difficult, if not impossible, to match or surpass.  If the offense isn’t better, it is going to be a long season.  I’m just not sure the defense is good enough to pick up the slack.

Kansas City benefited from a last place schedule in 2010 but have a difficultl first place schedule in 2011.  The last eight games will be especially brutal.  The second half starts with Denver at home, then at New England, Pittsburg, at Chicago, at NY Jets, Green Bay, Oakland, and at Denver.  The three easiest games, on paper, just happen to be against the Chiefs’ most hated rivals, Oakland and Denver.  Without major improvement in numerous areas, Kansas City will be lucky to finish with 4-6 victories.

I hate to be so negative because football season is much more fun when the Chiefs are winning games.  I fear a long and frustrating season is ahead.  I place the blame on Pioli’s lack of action in signing free agents.  If I am wrong, and I most certainly hope I am, then I will be quick to praise Pioli for knowing what he is doing.  I don’t see any crow in my diet anytime soon.

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