Free Agency and Small Markets

I haven’t posted many articles lately as I have been kicking around a few topics in my head.  One that keeps popping up is my frustration at the state of affairs in Major League Baseball.  As the powers that be try to hammer out a new labor agreement and as the hot stove season slowly simmers, I thought I would try to spill some of my thoughts here.

As a fan of a small market team, I always feel my team never has much of a chance to make any kind of splash in free agency.  The Royals just simply cannot compete with other teams in getting big name stars to come to Kansas City.  Part of the reason is the fact that the Royals have not been successful for two decades.  What star wants to come and play for a perennial loser?  It is also a fact that year in and year out, the Royals just can’t afford to compete with the big boys financially.  I have no doubt ownership could have laid out cash for one big name, if they could find anyone interested, but it would be very difficult to be able to afford enough good players to compete for championships on a regular basis.

It is also true the Royals were very frugal in the late 1990’s and for most of the last decade.  They developed some star players but made little true effort to sign players like Johnny Damon and Carlos Beltran.  They did sign one talented player long term – Mike Sweeney.  Sweeney was a heck of a hitter and gave it his all but he was the least durable of the star players at the turn of the century for the Royals and he spent many weeks on the DL. 

That all aside, even in this off season where it appears the perennial big spenders – Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies – won’t be chasing the top free agents, teams like the Royals still can’t compete in the hot stove season.  For teams with a little money lying around, this would be a perfect opportunity to grab a big name player or two long term while the big boys are sitting one out.  Miami certainly appears to making an effort to fill their new stadium for the 2012 season and beyond.  It is very hard for me to take the Marlins seriously though.  Twice they have loaded up and won a World Series, just to sell the star players off as soon as they could following their big triumphs.  What happens if the Marlins should land Pujols, Reyes, and Buehrle?  What if they challenge for, and maybe even win, the World Series in the next couple of years.  What if they win and the crowds still don’t come out and fill their new stadium?  The Rays had some very successful season recently but fans still haven’t embraced them.  It has happened in Miami in the past.  If Miami wins a World Series, will they just sell off their pieces again when the fans don’t show consistently? 

This business model is a not a solid one and it is one that ticks me off.  It is why I can’t take the Marlins seriously.  We all know, though, that it only takes one or two idiot general managers with more cash than sense to drive up a contract to silly proportions and just ruin the market.  Spending money is not a guarantee for success.  Yes, it helps, but championships are not sure things. 

While it is very frustrating because I have been waiting for twenty-five years, I can’t blame the Royals for their present course of trying to build from within.  I can’t say I believe in these giant contracts for players already in their thirties.  The steroid era is over; I don’t see many players producing the big numbers into their late thirties and early forties as has been the case over the past twenty years.  I firmly believe contracts longer than five years are mistakes.  I just don’t many see them paying off for all of those years.  Sure, occasionally there might be one or two where the players do earn the wage for the length of their deals.  I just don’t want my team taking those chances on players in their thirties. 

I like that the Royals are trying to build from within.  It just seems to be a long and never ending process.  I want my team to win now and to win for a long time.  With such a wide range of team salaries though, I just don’t see how all of the smaller market teams can compete year in and year out over a long period time.  I admire the job the Twins did competing for nearly a decade on a regular basis.  They are the exception.  The Rays are the exception.  Now, I have to hope the Royals are the exception. 

I read a musing by one of BaseballHQ.com’s forum guys today about the intelligence of back loaded contracts.  He made a very good point about it making more sense to have the contracts front loaded instead.  Isn’t it probable that a player is more likely to be a better player earlier in the contract?  Isn’t it probable a player approaching 40 years old at the end of a long contract is going to produce less than he did at 32?  If teams would front load contracts, they would be paying a player for his more likely production early in the contract.  It would also be easier to trade an aging player without eating a big chunk of the contract.  In my opinion, this is a much more sound and reasonable system than the one most general managers and agents use now.  That, of course, is why we will probably never see it used.

I also wish baseball could iron out the financial inequities.  Baseball is a different creature than the other major sports because most teams have their own television and radio deals so they can air games on a daily basis.  The bigger market teams are going to make more money that the smaller markets.  That is a fact.  The only sensible way to fix this is to have a ceiling and a floor.  In baseball, there is no other way to close the gap in revenues.  Unfortunately, the players’ union will never allow it and so we, as fans, just have to take the consequences.

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